Friday, September 9, 2011

2011 NFL Over/Under Challenge - Pick Analysis and Observations

On the heels of the recent Happy Days-inspired post, the Locks follows up with some quick observations on the 21 entries that are alive and battling for O/U supremacy.  Here are some details that you may or may not find interesting as the 2011 NFL season gets under way:

All 32 NFL teams appear at least once as an Over or Under

13 teams were picked as both Overs and Unders

6 teams appeared only as Unders

13 teams appeared only as Overs

The greatest consensus came on the Unders and the most disliked teams included:
  •  49ers (or FortyWhiners as they were referred to on at least one entry) – 9 entries (a whopping 43% of all entries included the Niners as an under – Alex Smith just threw up in his mouth)
  • Bengals (or Bungles as they were referred to on at least one entry) – 8 entries
  • Dolphins - 7 entries
  • Giants and Buccaneers - 5 entries each

The Overs were much more spread out with 5 being the greatest number of entries any one team appeared on:
  • Rams and Chargers - 5 entries each
  • Steelers, Lions, Cardinals, Bills and Patriots - 4 entries each

The only teams that were not picked at least one time as an Over:
  • 49ers, Packers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Bengals and Bears

The least selected teams overall:
  • Saints and Ravens - only appear as one Over each (no Unders)

The teams that the pool is most conflicted about:
  • Lions - 4 Overs and 3 Unders
  • Raiders - 3 Overs and 3 Unders

GOOD LUCK!

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

2011 NFL Over/Under Challenge - Sit On It

Congratulations to everyone who has entered the 2011 edition of the Absolute Locks’ NFL Over/Under Challenge.  Not only have you afforded yourself a shot at countless riches come the conclusion of the NFL season, but you have also earned a Happy Days-inspired alter ego to carry you through the coming months. 
   

For those of you who are new to the Challenge, here’s a link back to last year’s introduction where we saddled the contestants with Saved By the Bell affiliations just to provide even more ammunition for mocking each other. LINK  

Please note that all Happy Days designations are final and beyond debate.  With so many new faces this year (many of whom with the Locks is not terribly familiar), we have reserved the main characters for the veterans of the Over/Under Challenge.  New faces will be competing for those bit characters and/or guest appearances that made Happy Days such a ridiculously enjoyable program.

The following represents the field that will be competing for the largest Over/Under pot to date.  With 21 entries, we have a total pool of $420 (420, man!) which will be split as follows: $335 to the winner and $85 to the runner-up.  Study your competition diligently as you never know from where the next champion will emerge:

PRIMARY CAST:

Eric Burke (Defending Champion) as Arthur Fonzarelli aka Fonzie aka The Fonz - The defending Over/Under champion is always honored with the assignment of the unquestioned alpha dog of the TV series we are profiling.  Last season saw Tim Crvarich be crowned A.C. Slater only to lose (along with everyone else) to now defending champion Screech Powers.  And with that, we witness quite a 12-month transformation as Eric Burke morphs from Screech the school nerd to Eeeeeeeyyyyyy, The Fonz.  However, don’t bask in your celebrity too much Mr. Burke for repeating as champion of the Over/Under Challenge is not as easy as smacking the side of a jukebox to get the music playing or water-skiing in a leather jacket.  No, this takes all the skill, wits and courage a man can muster.  No one in the crew gathered down at Al’s Drive-In thinks you have much of a chance.  The Fonz’s Picks:

  • Overs: Rams, Broncos and Jaguars
  • Unders: Dolphins, Bengals and Packers



Tim Crvarich as Mr. Howard Cunningham – I wish they were all this easy as Timmy C is already well on his way to becoming a “Mr. C” in his own right.  Not to mention that there is not a more likely member of this pool to end up joining the Leopard Lodge or eagerly wearing the Grand Poohbah hat.  Mr. C’s picks:

  • Overs: Falcons, Eagles and Bills
  •  Unders: Niners, Chiefs and Buccaneers


Bobby Carini as Mrs. Marion Cunningham – Poor Bobby.  Last year we pegged him as some tool named Max who ran a diner for spoiled teenagers, now he is Marion Ross.  Talk about lack of respect.  Maybe if he hadn’t run out on his D-League softball team - during their moment of greatest need - he could have been a Chachi.  We’ll just never know.  We guess the upside is that he always has Timmy C’s broad Leopard Lodge shoulder to cry on.  That said, unless Bobby completely shits the bed this season, we’re going on record now as promising an upgrade to the role of Kit in the next season’s Knight Rider-inspired pool.  Mrs. C’s picks:

  • Overs: Chargers, Colts and Steelers
  • Unders: Niners, Raiders, Lions


Mark Borton as Ralph Malph – Ralph was known to consider himself quite the comedian, often proclaiming, “I still got it!” after he spouted another joke that was dead on arrival.  Not that unlike Borty’s “Is This Thing On?” after he delivers his Grade F material.  But what makes Borty a really good Ralph Malph has more to do with Potsie than anything else.  See, Ralph was known to constantly say, “You’re Such a Potsie” when his buddy was acting like his typically dimwitted self.  Which leads us to…..

Adam Yannuzzi as Warren “Potsie” Weber – Adam, as we all know, “Is Such a Potsie.”  He is probably reading this post right now already having proclaimed himself this year’s champion even though his picks are nothing if not dimwitted.  According to Wikipedia, Potsie’s character was much more worldly early in the Happy Days series and then became somewhat dull mentally later on.  That eerily mirrors the progression we are all witnessing in Adam as the years go by.

Ralph’s Picks:

  • Overs: Lions, Rams and Cowboys
  •  Unders: Eagles, Packers and Buccaneers

Potsie’s Picks:

  • Overs: Jets, Bills and Browns
  • Unders: Dolphins, Colts and Giants

John Yannuzzi as Al Delvecchio – He was the grown-up, father-figure as Principal Belding last season and he assumes the same lovable role this year as Al Delvecchio.  Al was also a cook and anyone who’s been to a fantasy football draft at John’s knows that he is the master of the double cooked chicken wing.  Al’s picks:

  • Overs: Giants, Bills and Panthers
  • Unders: Chiefs, Titans and Dolphins

Kevin Pollock as Charles “Chachi” Arcola – Not sure why but this one just felt right.  Perhaps it is KP’s fleeting resemblance to a young Scott Baio, their shared connection to New York, or maybe I was running out of primary characters and people to pair them with.  Whichever way you cut, we have our Chachi.  Interestingly enough, Al Delvecchio ends up marrying Chachi’s mother and becoming his step-father.  That means that John Yannuzzi is there for you with all the fatherly advice you need Kevin.  Yikes.  Chachi’s picks:

  • Overs: Chargers, Texans and Cardinals
  • Unders: Niners, Giants and Lions

Craig Kadden as Richie Cunningham – Craig might just be the biggest climber in the TV character alter ego department.  Slogging through last season as barely a regular cast member (Mike Rogers from the College Years) he jumps all the way up to big dog #2 next to Eric Burke’s Fonzie.  The Locks is really not sure what brought about this rapid ascension as his performance in last year’s pool was only Richie-like in that it looked kind of silly and I wouldn’t want to be associated with it.  Oh well, maybe the pool thing is not for Craig – much like acting proved to be wildly underwhelming for Ron Howard.  Richie’s picks: 

  • Overs: Saints, Steelers and Patriots
  • Unders: Buccaneers, Giants and Lions

The Absolute Locks (Tim Brons) as Mesuma “Arnold” Takahashi – A little known fact is that Arnold started off the Happy Days series as a Caucasian in Season 1 who sold the drive-in to Takahashi.  However, Mesuma was too cheap to buy enough letters to change the name to Takahashi.  People just kept calling him Arnold and he went with it.  I’ve had a guitar instructor calling me the wrong name for three years and I still don’t have the nerve to correct him.  That’s good enough for me.  Arnold’s picks:

  • Overs: Seahawks, Browns and Chargers
  • Unders: Bengals, Dolphins and Bears
 

MINOR CHARACTERS AND GUEST APPEARANCES (THE NEW GUYS)

Brien Dirito as Police Officer Kirk/Army Reserve Major Kirk – This is the perfect category for Dirito as anyone who has followed his career knows he has no issue playing a “minor” character.  That was just too easy and perhaps a bit too cruel.  The Locks abandons any responsibility for that comment as it was “Arnold” Takahashi talking.  You may not remember Kirk but he was Fonzie’s biggest antagonist and I’m sure Dirito has designs of gunning for the Fonz this season.  More importantly, Kirk was known to be constantly trolling for “delinquents” and “pinkos” to bust, so he clearly has joined the right pool.  I can just hear Dirito screaming "PINKO" right now.  Officer Kirk's picks:

  • Overs: Eagles, Lions and Panthers
  • Unders: Niners, Jaguars and Colts

Mike Wasley as Mork from Ork – He comes from outer-space, at times speaks his own language (have you ever been out drinking with Waz?) and was so popular that he sparked his very own spin-off series (Mork & Mindy).  Done, done and done.  Welcome aboard Mike. Na-nu, Na-nu.  Mork’s picks:

  • Overs: Cardinals, Vikings and Patriots
  • Unders: Redskins, Titans and Dolphins

Jimmy Charlesworth as Leather Tuscadero – Leather had a love for music, even forming her very own band named Leather Tuscadero and the Suedes.  Jimmy now covers many of the Suedes' greatest hits when jamming at home.   More importantly, she is a “former” juvenile delinquent.  We’re not sure that Jimbo can assign the same “former” label to his status as a delinquent but we all know he’s trying.  Leather’s picks:

  • Overs: Broncos, Texans and Chargers
  • Unders: Titans, Jaguars and Raiders

Alex Fyfe and Bill Fyfe as The Malachi Brothers – While Bill and Alex play father and son in real-life, the Locks’ thought it best to keep it in the family for their Happy Days counterparts.  Traveling demolition derby drivers known for the infamous “Malachi Crunch,” these brothers (Bill as Count and Alex as Rocco) are fierce competitors not above a bit of sabotage to come out on top.

Count Malachi’s Picks:

  • Overs: Ravens, Rams and Cardinals
  • Unders: Dolphins, 49ers and Seahawks

Rocco Malachi’s Picks:

  • Overs: Lions, Rams and Bills
  • Unders: Giants, Colts and Bengals

Dan DeLaiarro as Joanie Cunningham – Dan sneaks in and gets the only remaining main character not assigned to a returning member of the O/U Challenge.  The price he pays for that honor is that he is Joanie Cunningham.  Not sure he’s going to feel real good about his initial exposure to the Locks.  Not to mention that the Fonz is known to call Joanie “Shortcake” and it was the Fonz (Eric Burke) that got Dan into this pool.  I’m sure that is going to do nothing but strengthen the friendship between the Eric and Dan.  Joanie’s picks:

  • Overs: Falcons, Jets and Texans
  • Unders: Giants, Redskins and Bengals

Russell Catelli as Roger Phillips – Roger, nephew of Mr. and Mrs. C, showed up late to Happy Days and we really didn’t know anything about him.  Somewhat similar to Russell and the Over/Under Challenge.  Never fear, the guy who played Roger Phillips went on to become the legendary Jefferson on Married….With Children so we all know Russell is capable of big things.  Roger’s picks:

  • Overs: Patriots, Panthers and Chargers
  • Unders: Bengals, Raiders and Buccaneers

Mike Agostino as Spike - Now I am really running out of things to write.  I don't know Mike but he seems like a pretty good guy - he even put his picks in a nice box format with the O/U numbers next to each one when he sent them to me.  I thought that was really going above and beyond.  It was that attention to detail that saved him from being the Challenge's Pinky Tuscadero.  Not sure Chachi's punk cousin is any better but at least he's a dude.  Spike's picks:

  • Overs: Cowboys, Steelers and Broncos
  • Unders: Vikings, Panthers and Bears

Heath Loney as Pinky Tuscadero - Can't say that the Locks feels great about saddling a guy we don't know with the dreaded Pinky Tuscadero label but we've run out of characters and we've run out of competitors.  For the record, Heath seems like a pretty good guy too.  He just didn't put his picks in that nice box format that Mike did.  It was really that close between those two.  Pinky's picks:

  • Overs: Patriots, Falcons and Lions
  • Unders: Niners, Bengals and Buccaneers

Bill Celli as Charles "Chuck" Cunningham - Just when I thought I had pulled off the impossible and assigned a whopping 18 characters from a single television show, I get not one, but two, last minute entries.  However, Bill - owner of both entries, an O/U first - got them both in under the wire so he's just as entitled to a title shot as the rest of us.  Problem is, he's going to get a character that absolutely nobody knows anything about.  That's right, Bill is our Charles "Chuck" Cunningham - Richie's long forgotten older brother who disappeared without explanation following Season 2.  Let's hope Billy  has some staying power and doesn't force us to rekindle talk of "Chuck Cunningham Syndrome" to describe an unexplained disappearance.  Chuck's picks (both sets):

Team Aldo:
  • Overs: Steelers, Raiders and Redskins
  • Unders: Niners, Chargers and Bengals
Team Hojo:
  • Overs: Buccaneers, Raiders and Titans
  • Unders: Bears, Niners and Bengals
 

David Dirito as Lori Beth Allen Cunningham - This time I really, really thought I was done.  I was quite satisfied with myself too.  20 entries, 19 characters.  Not too bad if I must say so myself.  Then I got what everyone who knows any better dreads: a text message from Brien Dirito.  When exactly did he learn to use anything more advanced than a rotary phone?  Well sure enough, he had another Dirito that wanted in and so it was back to the drawing board for the Locks, just as we crept up to the 11:00 p.m. entry deadline.  The price that must be paid for a tired, and thus sloppy, Locksmith involves a handkerchief around the neck.  That's right, Lori Beth Allen Cunningham has entered the building.  Richie's eventual wife is sneaking in just before curfew and trying to take home a Letterman sweater and the Over/Under Challenge.  At the very least, David should handily win the Battle of the Diritos.  Lori Beth's picks:

  • Overs: Raiders, Cardinals and Rams
  • Unders: Bears, Niners and Dolphins


Wednesday, August 10, 2011

2011 O/U NFL Challenge - Entries and Guidance

The deadline for entries in the 2011 Over/Under NFL Challenge is on the horizon.  The Locks needs to receive all submissions (tbrons@vidacommunication.com) by 11:00 p.m. (Pacific) on Wednesday, September 7.  With the economy continuing to stick hot pokers in all of our asses, the Locks has decided to issue a grand fuck you to economists everywhere and raise the entry fee for the pool.  We'll be collecting $20 a head this season, meaning better payouts for better predictions.

The rules for the Over/Under challenge remain the same as always.  Review the predicted win totals for each team as provided by the Las Vegas Hilton (see numbers to the left) and select three teams that you think will win less games than the Vegas prediction (Unders) and 3 teams that you think will win more games than the Vegas prediction (Overs).  
 
You choose your 6 teams and email them to me before the first game of the NFL season (scheduled for September 8) and the deadline referenced above.  At the end of the season, whoever has the most correct teams wins the pool.  Simple enough.  We have tie-breakers covered though I won't go into the complex abacus-required mathematics in this post.
 
Once all entries are received, we will post them all on Absolute Locks so we can all follow along throughout the season.  As you'll see, we've also carved out some valuable real estate to honor last season's victor, none other than Screech Powers aka Eric Burke.  Pick prudently and you may find yourself in the Champion Corner come this time next year.
 
Spread the word liberally.  All are welcome as long as they will pay the entry fee.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

We're Back

After a several week hiatus which saw the Locks reinvigorate its own gambling habit, ride a great wave of success through college bowl season and then come crashing back to earth via the NFL playoffs and NBA, we're getting back to our responsibilities.  That's right, we're back to feed our picks to you and only you.  And that is the way that it should be.  It is time to make hay with college basketball.  Lord knows we've done enough research over the past several weeks.  Don't believe me?  Well I now know enough about the Stetson Hatters, Bethune-Cookman and Carver Bible College to make Joe Lunardi blush.  How is that for getting into the trenches?

College Basketball:

Clemson @ North Carolina - Line is UNC -5.5 - Carolina is an absolute mess right now.  Without a single guard who can hit a jump shot, UNC's talented big men have nowhere to work down low.  Harrison Barnes just has not adjusted to the college game and even in a down ACC, the Tar Heels often look out-of-sync.  With that description, do you trust them to beat anyone by 6?  Me neither.  Take the Tigers and the 5.5 points.  LOCK IT UP

Michigan @ Northwestern - Line is Northwestern -7 - The Wildcats do have a scrappy team and John Shurna can play ball - no debate here.  However, they have yet to beat any really solid teams (sorry Iowa and Indiana) so we are yet again a bit surprised that a mediocre team would be giving so many points.  While Michigan is riding a nice little four game losing streak - one should note that those included losses to now #2 Kansas and now #1 Ohio State.  They held there own in both of those games.  This team is starting to show glimpses (disregard the last blowout loss to Indiana) and there is talent on the Wolverines.  We're betting they begin turning things around this evening.  Take UM and the 7 points.  LOCK IT UP

TCU @ BYU - Line is BYU -21 - It is not often that you are going to find the Locks advocating the laying of 21 points in a basketball game.  However, BYU is one of the few teams - it might be the only one - that we trust implicitly in college basketball.  These Mormons are for real and that isn't just because many of them are in their mid-20s.  When it comes to back courts, the Cougars have one of the best in the country.  Everyone knows about Jimmer but the other BYU guards can play ball too.  Let's face it, unless this game is played on a football field, TCU will not be competitive.  In Mormon country, Texas Christian will need more than a few prayers to be answered.  Only Alan Stanwick goes to Provo looking for a big score.  Take BYU and lay the points.  LOCK IT UP 

DePaul @ Marquette - Line is Marquette -17.5 - Road victories are very hard to come by in the Big East and that assumes you are a really good team.  DePaul is one of the worst teams in all of power conference college basketball.  Marquette is very good, very scrappy and very capable of pulling down DePaul's pants.  Plus they are looking to avenge a heart-breaking loss at Louisville over the weekend.  We just think this is a train wreck in waiting for the Blue Demons.  Look to Marquette to roll just like they did back in the Dwayne Wade days.  Lay the points.  LOCK IT UP

Kentucky @ Alabama - Line is Kentucky -4.5 - This game violates the one rule that the Locks has come to hold most dear: don't back road favorites, period.  So, we're half expecting the Crimson Tide to cover here.  That said, common sense would argue otherwise.  Kentucky is the much, much, much more talented team.  Sure they are young and that gives coaches fits during the course of a 30 game season.  However, it also leads to some pretty impressive outputs along the way.  We're looking for one of those head-turning displays tonight against a Bama team that is 221st in the country in points per game and that has lost to the likes of St Peters at home.  We love Kentucky here and we better because they are road favorites.  Take Kentucky and lay the 4.5 points.  LOCK IT UP