2012 Over/Under Challenge - D'OH

Thank you to all of you brave and optimistic individuals who believe you just might have what it takes to climb the mountain known as the Absolute Locks' NFL Over/Under Challenge.  A quick tip of the cap to our previous winners: Tim Crvarich (2009), Eric Burke (2010) and defending champion Craig Kadden.  As those of you who are returning to the competition know, the fun doesn't just lie in your selections for the pool.  That would just be lame (like so many of the picks I've received this year).  No, the competitive advantage (to use language that any MBA candidate would love) to the Locks is that we aim to assassinate your self confidence by saddling you with an unshakable alter ego.  This year, you'll all take on the role of a member of the immortal Simpsons cast.  With so many nerds, geeks, losers, fruitcakes and nitwits up for grabs, you should all be in a position to take umbrage at your given characters.

For those one or two of you who are new to the Challenge, here’s a link back to the previous two years' introductions, where we aligned the contestants with personalities from Saved By the Bell and Happy Days just to provide even more ammunition for mocking each other. LINK  LINK

Please note that all Simpsons designations are final and beyond debate. 

The following represents the field that will be competing for an Over/Under pot of $360 (18 entries).  The recession must be real as the Locks pool has taken a step in the wrong direction.  We're down from last year's all-time high of 21 entries.   The $360 pot will be split as follows: $290 to the winner and $70 to the runner-up.  Study your competition diligently as you never know from where the next champion will emerge.  The following are displayed in the order of finish from last season.  New entries bring up the rear:

THE RETURNING PLAYERS:

Craig Kadden (Defending Champion) as Bart Simpson aka El Barto - The defending Over/Under champion is always honored with the assignment of the unquestioned alpha dog of the TV series we are profiling.  Last season we gave Eric Burke the honor of Arthur Fonzarelli and the prior year had Tim Crvarich crowned as A.C. Slater.  Neither repeated so we now have an unofficial Fonz/Slater curse.  Good luck Kadden, you've got no shot.  For those wondering if Bart really out alpha-dogs his pops Homer, we'd argue there is not much argument.  Homer is lovable but Bart is a bad-ass.  I'm now having visions of Craig writing the following 100 times on a blackboard after school:  "I will never pick the 49ers as an Over again."  Bart Simpson's Picks:

• Overs: 49ers, Giants and Texans

• Unders: Steelers, Dolphins and Jets

 

Mike Agostino as Homer Simpson - D'Oh! Mr. Agostino takes an unprecedented leap in credibility shifting from some Happy Days no-name (Spike) to one of the most sought-after Simpsons pairings.  Like Mike, Homer embodies everything that we love in a guy.  He eats without reservation, drinks relentlessly and is often being laughed at uncontrollably.  (I just made all that up about Mike as I still haven't met the guy).  However, the Mike Agostino that I would like to meet is all of those things.  Don't take Mike's weakness for doughnuts as a weakness.  This guy was one game away from taking home the crown last season.  Homer's Picks:

• Overs: 49ers, Buccaneers and Texans

• Unders: Eagles, Vikings and Browns

Adam Yannuzzi as Smithers - This was one of the easier Simpsons associations to make.  Adam simply oozes Smithers.  He has dangerously little backbone, loves show tunes and hasn't done anything remotely interesting in years.  It is amazing his participation in the O/U Challenge is still sanctioned.  According to my research, Smithers' occupation is listed as "Professional Lickspittle to Mr. Burns."  Once we reveal the Mr. Burns of the O/U Challenge, Adam as Smithers will make even more sense.  One thing Smithers is not though is an intellectual pushover.  Somehow Adam claws his way toward the top of the pool each year.  We expect nothing less this time around.  The Lickspittle's Picks:

• Overs: Jets, Chiefs and Falcons

• Unders: Dolphins, Panthers and Steelers

Brien Dirito as Kent Brockman - For the Over/Under's C Level celebrity (have you seen Flooding?  Neither has anyone else) we award Springfield's C Level celebrity: local newsman Kent Brockman.  A man who demands to be listened to and loathes being either interrupted or questioned, Kent Brockman is the perfect mirror to our own Brien Dirito.  Brockman also tries to pretend that he is younger than he is and has probably gotten too much sun.  The similarities just don't stop.  A quick aside, even though some of Brien's earlier cinema work might have left you a bit wanting, he does have a role in the upcoming big studio release: "Of Men and Mavericks."  It hits theaters October 26 and we encourage everyone to check it out. Brockman's Picks:

• Overs: Raiders, Lions and Colts

• Unders: Patriots, Chargers and Jets

John Yannuzzi as Principal Skinner - John is a father figure to most of us on the 70s Style Bush D League softball team so we keep giving him the elder statesman roles.  From Principal Belding to Al DelVecchio, John has acquitted himself quite well in the Locks' Challenge each year.  He'll return to the role of principal again this year as the loveable Seymour Skinner.  He now wants to get his hands on Bart in more ways that one.  Skinner's Picks:

• Overs: Colts, Redskins and Browns

• Unders: Dolphins, Patriots and Bears

Alex Fyfe as Itchy; Bill Fyfe as Scratchy - Man, this was a tough one.  Alex enters the Challenge each year along with his father Bill.  Accordingly, we strive to give them father/son characters when possible.  Well the crop of Dad/Boy candidates on the Simpsons leaves something to be desired once you move past Homer/Bart.  You very quickly get into the territory of Ned Flanders and his nerd sons Rod and Todd, Kirk and Milhouse Van Houten, and the worst, by far, Chief and Ralph Wiggum.  Unable to disrespect two guys that I genuinely like (unlike the most of the rest of you), I abandoned the father/son requirement and went with two other inseperable characters: Itchy and Scratchy.  And since Alex got the upper hand on Bill during last year's pool, we're left no choice but to name Alex as Itchy (the Homicidal Sadist) and Bill as Scratchy (Itchy's Perpetual Victim).

Itchy's Picks:

• Overs: Broncos, Colts and Giants

• Unders: Eagles, Saints and Vikings

Scratchy's Picks:

• Overs: Broncos, Colts and 49ers

• Unders: Eagles, Rams and Bills

David Dirito as Moe Szyslak - We needed a Moe - one of my all-time favorite characters - and I didn't have anywhere else to turn.  I'd love to say that there were some solid underpinnings for linking David with Moe but there just aren't.  The closest I can get is that anyone who has to put up with Brien Dirito as much as I imagine David does, better have easy access to a nice stiff cocktail.  And who knows of a cocktail that could possibly beat a Flamin' Moe?  Moe's Picks:

• Overs: Broncos, Colts and Seahawks

• Unders: Eagles, Lions and Jets

James Charlesworth as Sideshow Bob - Another of the easier ones to hand out.  Anyone who knows Jimbo knows he has the ability to become his own hurricane of a sideshow.  Whether it is an air guitar on a beer stained table in Lake Tahoe or just closing things down in epic fashion at the Pub, Sideshow Jim gets it done.  Viewing his O/U picks leaves us to believe this is just another act in the ongoing sideshow.  Bob Terwilliger's (Sideshow's real name) Picks:

• Overs: Jets, 49ers and Bears

• Unders: Raiders, Cowboys and Bengals

Mark Borton as Disco Stu - As someone who spent roughly four years of his life as someone named Stu, Mark feels like the perfect reincarnation of one of the great ensemble Simpsons characters.  And has anyone seen Borty dance?  The guy can go all night long.  Disco Stu's Picks:

• Overs: 49ers, Texans and Bears

• Unders: Patriots, Dolphins and Chiefs

Tim Crvarich as Mayor Quinby - Mr. Crvarich, like the good Mayor, has a weakness for the occasional cocktail and misadventure.  And if there is a mayoral candidate among this group who is equipped to declare meaningless holidays and undertake fact-finding missions on tropical islands, it is our man Tim Crvarich.  He's looking to recapture the glory of 2009 when he won the biggest race of his life: the Locks' O/U Challenge.  Mayor's Picks:

• Overs: Texans, Colts and Cowboys

• Unders: Dolphins, Jets and Steelers

 
Dan DeLaiarro as Nelson Muntz - We're not sure Dan has much bullying in him but we are hoping he will push around his buddy Eric Burke just a bit in this year's Challenge.  After playing last year's Joanie to Eric's Fonzie and handily trouncing Mr. Burke in the year-end standings, we think it is only fitting that he exacts some revenge.  That bullying will only be made easier once we see the character given to Eric below.  Nelson's Picks:

• Overs: Patriots, Colts and Giants

• Unders: Eagles, Jets and Dolphins

Tim Brons as Mr. Burns - Brons. Burns.  Close enough.  Plus, I'm the evil dictator of this here O/U Challenge and would be willing to block out the sun and sell light to all of you for the right entry fee.  Add in the fact that there are many days that I wake up feeling like C. Montgomery Burns in two important ways: being older than dirt and physically weaker than an infant.  It all adds up to me.  Mr. Burns' Picks:

• Overs: Rams, Jaguars and Saints

• Unders: Steelers, Jets and Titans

Bill Celli as Lionel Hutz - Bill strikes me as an impeccable salesman.  That attention to professional detail puts him on par with Mr. Hutz, an attorney whose legal practice, located in a shopping mall, is named "I Can't Believe It's A Law Firm!" and also offers "expert shoe repair". Hutz often tries to entice potential clients with free gifts, including a "smoking monkey" doll, a pen that looks like a cigar, an exotic faux-pearl necklace, a business card that "turns into a sponge when you put it in water," and even a almost-full Orange Julius - all tricks that I am sure Bill has employed down at Dirito Brothers.  Regardless, we know that Bill's true calling is somewhat tied up in gambling so this O/U Challenge just might be in his wheelhouse.  Lionel Hutz's Picks:

• Overs: Texans, Raiders and Seahawks

• Unders: Bengals, Jets and Chiefs

Kevin Pollock as Otto Mann - KP's full flowing mane of black hair provides him a common characteristic with Springfield's favorite bus driver. The similarities do not end there though.  In one episode, Homer takes Lisa and Bart to the Hullabalooza music festival where attendees are partaking in all sorts of illegal substances.  When Bart inquires about the smell in the air, Lisa comments, "It smells like Otto's jacket."  I think KP has one of those jackets, especially after an afternoon of fantasy football drafting.  Otto's Picks:

• Overs: Giants, 49ers and Saints

• Unders: Cardinals, Jets and Chiefs

Eric Burke as Milhouse Van Houten - And as we arrive at the bottom of last year's standings, we find Eric Burke, a far fall from his previous perch of defending champion.  With such a reversal of fortunes comes many things but mostly ridicule.  As such, he will be known as Milhouse moving forward.  He'll be antagonized by us all, but especially by his buddy Dan as Nelson Muntz.  A fun fact about Milhouse is that he is harmed frequently, and on some occasions is injured by dangerous hazards, i.e. being run over by a train, falling down a waterfall, being electrically shocked, having his head polished to bone, etc., but, as a lead character, always survives.  Interesting, Milhouse did purchase Bart's soul for $5.00 so this whole O/U thing might just come full circle.  Eric's tenure as nerd may be a short one.  Milhouse's Picks:

• Overs: Texans, Rams and Broncos

• Unders: Dolphins, Cardinals and Raiders

THE NEWCOMERS:
 
Chris Carbonaro as Ned Flanders - We need to haze the new guys somehow and there is always the added challenge that I have no history with them by which to base their characters.  So Chris gets Ned because I wanted someone to be Ned.  A weaker connection is that he was brought into the O/U Challenge by Craig (Bart Simpson).  Bart and Ned are neighbors and often share long, deep conversations with Ned guiding Bart down the right path.  I can only hope someone is out there having a deep conversation with Craig and trying to guide him down the right path.  Perhaps that person is our very own Ned Flanders.  Welcome aboard Chris.  Ned's Picks:

• Overs: Falcons, Redskins and Broncos

• Unders: Dolphins, Jets and Steelers

Mike Azcona and Don Dirito as Lenny and Carl - Whenever you enter a $20 pool as partners, there are serious red flags raised but we'll leave that to Mike and Don to discuss.  We're just happy to have them join the fun.  However, as partners, we need to assign them some characters that are viewed as "partners" themselves; two characters who do not exist on their own and only have life as counterparts to each other.  We toyed around with Patty and Selma but that felt unnecessarily cruel.  So we settled, with a high degree of satisfaction, on Lenny and Carl.  We all need a Lenny and we all need a Carl.  Let's just thank Mike and Don for giving us what we need.  Now they can fight over who is who.  Lenny's and Carl's Picks:

• Overs: Giants, Texans and Buccaneers

• Unders: Chargers, Eagles and Cowboys

 

2012 O/U NFL Challenge - Entries and Guidance

The deadline for entries in the 2012 Over/Under NFL Challenge is on the horizon.  The Locks needs to receive all submissions (tbrons@vidacommunication.com) by 11:00 p.m. (Pacific) on Tuesday, September 4.  As with last season, participation in this internationally acclaimed event will set you back $20.  For those in need of a payment plan option, go find another pool to float in.

 

The rules for the Over/Under challenge are clear and beyond reproach.  They remain the same as always.  Review the predicted win totals for each team as provided by the Las Vegas Hilton (see numbers to the left) and select three teams that you think will win less games than the Vegas prediction (Unders) and 3 teams that you think will win more games than the Vegas prediction (Overs).  

 

You choose your 6 teams and email them to me before the first game of the NFL season (scheduled for September 5 - Big Blue to kick some Cowboy ass!) and the deadline referenced above.  At the end of the season, whoever has the most correct teams wins the pool.  Simple enough.  We have tie-breakers covered though I won't go into the complex abacus-required mathematics in this post.

 

Once all entries are received, we will post them all on Absolute Locks so we can all follow along throughout the season.  As you'll see, we've also carved out some valuable real estate to honor previous seasons' victors, none other than Richie Cunningham aka Craig Kadden and Screech Powers aka Eric Burke.  Pick prudently and you may find yourself in the Champion Corner come this time next year.

 

Spread the word liberally.  All are welcome as long as they will pay the entry fee.

2011 NFL Over/Under Challenge - Pick Analysis and Observations

On the heels of the recent Happy Days-inspired post, the Locks follows up with some quick observations on the 21 entries that are alive and battling for O/U supremacy.  Here are some details that you may or may not find interesting as the 2011 NFL season gets under way:

All 32 NFL teams appear at least once as an Over or Under

13 teams were picked as both Overs and Unders

6 teams appeared only as Unders

13 teams appeared only as Overs

The greatest consensus came on the Unders and the most disliked teams included:

•  49ers (or FortyWhiners as they were referred to on at least one entry) – 9 entries (a whopping 43% of all entries included the Niners as an under – Alex Smith just threw up in his mouth)
• Bengals (or Bungles as they were referred to on at least one entry) – 8 entries
• Dolphins - 7 entries
• Giants and Buccaneers - 5 entries each

The Overs were much more spread out with 5 being the greatest number of entries any one team appeared on:

• Rams and Chargers - 5 entries each
• Steelers, Lions, Cardinals, Bills and Patriots - 4 entries each

The only teams that were not picked at least one time as an Over:

• 49ers, Packers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Bengals and Bears

The least selected teams overall:

• Saints and Ravens - only appear as one Over each (no Unders)

The teams that the pool is most conflicted about:

• Lions - 4 Overs and 3 Unders

• Raiders - 3 Overs and 3 Unders

GOOD LUCK!

2011 NFL Over/Under Challenge - Sit On It

Congratulations to everyone who has entered the 2011 edition of the Absolute Locks’ NFL Over/Under Challenge.  Not only have you afforded yourself a shot at countless riches come the conclusion of the NFL season, but you have also earned a Happy Days-inspired alter ego to carry you through the coming months. 

   

For those of you who are new to the Challenge, here’s a link back to last year’s introduction where we saddled the contestants with Saved By the Bell affiliations just to provide even more ammunition for mocking each other. LINK  

Please note that all Happy Days designations are final and beyond debate.  With so many new faces this year (many of whom with the Locks is not terribly familiar), we have reserved the main characters for the veterans of the Over/Under Challenge.  New faces will be competing for those bit characters and/or guest appearances that made Happy Days such a ridiculously enjoyable program.

The following represents the field that will be competing for the largest Over/Under pot to date.  With 21 entries, we have a total pool of $420 (420, man!) which will be split as follows: $335 to the winner and $85 to the runner-up.  Study your competition diligently as you never know from where the next champion will emerge:

PRIMARY CAST:

Eric Burke (Defending Champion) as Arthur Fonzarelli aka Fonzie aka The Fonz - The defending Over/Under champion is always honored with the assignment of the unquestioned alpha dog of the TV series we are profiling.  Last season saw Tim Crvarich be crowned A.C. Slater only to lose (along with everyone else) to now defending champion Screech Powers.  And with that, we witness quite a 12-month transformation as Eric Burke morphs from Screech the school nerd to Eeeeeeeyyyyyy, The Fonz.  However, don’t bask in your celebrity too much Mr. Burke for repeating as champion of the Over/Under Challenge is not as easy as smacking the side of a jukebox to get the music playing or water-skiing in a leather jacket.  No, this takes all the skill, wits and courage a man can muster.  No one in the crew gathered down at Al’s Drive-In thinks you have much of a chance.  The Fonz’s Picks:

• Overs: Rams, Broncos and Jaguars

• Unders: Dolphins, Bengals and Packers

Tim Crvarich as Mr. Howard Cunningham – I wish they were all this easy as Timmy C is already well on his way to becoming a “Mr. C” in his own right.  Not to mention that there is not a more likely member of this pool to end up joining the Leopard Lodge or eagerly wearing the Grand Poohbah hat.  Mr. C’s picks:

• Overs: Falcons, Eagles and Bills

•  Unders: Niners, Chiefs and Buccaneers

Bobby Carini as Mrs. Marion Cunningham – Poor Bobby.  Last year we pegged him as some tool named Max who ran a diner for spoiled teenagers, now he is Marion Ross.  Talk about lack of respect.  Maybe if he hadn’t run out on his D-League softball team - during their moment of greatest need - he could have been a Chachi.  We’ll just never know.  We guess the upside is that he always has Timmy C’s broad Leopard Lodge shoulder to cry on.  That said, unless Bobby completely shits the bed this season, we’re going on record now as promising an upgrade to the role of Kit in the next season’s Knight Rider-inspired pool.  Mrs. C’s picks:

• Overs: Chargers, Colts and Steelers

• Unders: Niners, Raiders, Lions

Mark Borton as Ralph Malph – Ralph was known to consider himself quite the comedian, often proclaiming, “I still got it!” after he spouted another joke that was dead on arrival.  Not that unlike Borty’s “Is This Thing On?” after he delivers his Grade F material.  But what makes Borty a really good Ralph Malph has more to do with Potsie than anything else.  See, Ralph was known to constantly say, “You’re Such a Potsie” when his buddy was acting like his typically dimwitted self.  Which leads us to…..

Adam Yannuzzi as Warren “Potsie” Weber – Adam, as we all know, “Is Such a Potsie.”  He is probably reading this post right now already having proclaimed himself this year’s champion even though his picks are nothing if not dimwitted.  According to Wikipedia, Potsie’s character was much more worldly early in the Happy Days series and then became somewhat dull mentally later on.  That eerily mirrors the progression we are all witnessing in Adam as the years go by.

Ralph’s Picks:

• Overs: Lions, Rams and Cowboys

•  Unders: Eagles, Packers and Buccaneers

Potsie’s Picks:

• Overs: Jets, Bills and Browns

• Unders: Dolphins, Colts and Giants

John Yannuzzi as Al Delvecchio – He was the grown-up, father-figure as Principal Belding last season and he assumes the same lovable role this year as Al Delvecchio.  Al was also a cook and anyone who’s been to a fantasy football draft at John’s knows that he is the master of the double cooked chicken wing.  Al’s picks:

• Overs: Giants, Bills and Panthers

• Unders: Chiefs, Titans and Dolphins

Kevin Pollock as Charles “Chachi” Arcola – Not sure why but this one just felt right.  Perhaps it is KP’s fleeting resemblance to a young Scott Baio, their shared connection to New York, or maybe I was running out of primary characters and people to pair them with.  Whichever way you cut, we have our Chachi.  Interestingly enough, Al Delvecchio ends up marrying Chachi’s mother and becoming his step-father.  That means that John Yannuzzi is there for you with all the fatherly advice you need Kevin.  Yikes.  Chachi’s picks:

• Overs: Chargers, Texans and Cardinals

• Unders: Niners, Giants and Lions

Craig Kadden as Richie Cunningham – Craig might just be the biggest climber in the TV character alter ego department.  Slogging through last season as barely a regular cast member (Mike Rogers from the College Years) he jumps all the way up to big dog #2 next to Eric Burke’s Fonzie.  The Locks is really not sure what brought about this rapid ascension as his performance in last year’s pool was only Richie-like in that it looked kind of silly and I wouldn’t want to be associated with it.  Oh well, maybe the pool thing is not for Craig – much like acting proved to be wildly underwhelming for Ron Howard.  Richie’s picks: 

• Overs: Saints, Steelers and Patriots

• Unders: Buccaneers, Giants and Lions

The Absolute Locks (Tim Brons) as Mesuma “Arnold” Takahashi – A little known fact is that Arnold started off the Happy Days series as a Caucasian in Season 1 who sold the drive-in to Takahashi.  However, Mesuma was too cheap to buy enough letters to change the name to Takahashi.  People just kept calling him Arnold and he went with it.  I’ve had a guitar instructor calling me the wrong name for three years and I still don’t have the nerve to correct him.  That’s good enough for me.  Arnold’s picks:

• Overs: Seahawks, Browns and Chargers

• Unders: Bengals, Dolphins and Bears

 

MINOR CHARACTERS AND GUEST APPEARANCES (THE NEW GUYS)

Brien Dirito as Police Officer Kirk/Army Reserve Major Kirk – This is the perfect category for Dirito as anyone who has followed his career knows he has no issue playing a “minor” character.  That was just too easy and perhaps a bit too cruel.  The Locks abandons any responsibility for that comment as it was “Arnold” Takahashi talking.  You may not remember Kirk but he was Fonzie’s biggest antagonist and I’m sure Dirito has designs of gunning for the Fonz this season.  More importantly, Kirk was known to be constantly trolling for “delinquents” and “pinkos” to bust, so he clearly has joined the right pool.  I can just hear Dirito screaming "PINKO" right now.  Officer Kirk's picks:

• Overs: Eagles, Lions and Panthers

• Unders: Niners, Jaguars and Colts

Mike Wasley as Mork from Ork – He comes from outer-space, at times speaks his own language (have you ever been out drinking with Waz?) and was so popular that he sparked his very own spin-off series (Mork & Mindy).  Done, done and done.  Welcome aboard Mike. Na-nu, Na-nu.  Mork’s picks:

• Overs: Cardinals, Vikings and Patriots

• Unders: Redskins, Titans and Dolphins

Jimmy Charlesworth as Leather Tuscadero – Leather had a love for music, even forming her very own band named Leather Tuscadero and the Suedes.  Jimmy now covers many of the Suedes' greatest hits when jamming at home.   More importantly, she is a “former” juvenile delinquent.  We’re not sure that Jimbo can assign the same “former” label to his status as a delinquent but we all know he’s trying.  Leather’s picks:

• Overs: Broncos, Texans and Chargers

• Unders: Titans, Jaguars and Raiders

Alex Fyfe and Bill Fyfe as The Malachi Brothers – While Bill and Alex play father and son in real-life, the Locks’ thought it best to keep it in the family for their Happy Days counterparts.  Traveling demolition derby drivers known for the infamous “Malachi Crunch,” these brothers (Bill as Count and Alex as Rocco) are fierce competitors not above a bit of sabotage to come out on top.

Count Malachi’s Picks:

• Overs: Ravens, Rams and Cardinals

• Unders: Dolphins, 49ers and Seahawks

Rocco Malachi’s Picks:

• Overs: Lions, Rams and Bills

• Unders: Giants, Colts and Bengals

Dan DeLaiarro as Joanie Cunningham – Dan sneaks in and gets the only remaining main character not assigned to a returning member of the O/U Challenge.  The price he pays for that honor is that he is Joanie Cunningham.  Not sure he’s going to feel real good about his initial exposure to the Locks.  Not to mention that the Fonz is known to call Joanie “Shortcake” and it was the Fonz (Eric Burke) that got Dan into this pool.  I’m sure that is going to do nothing but strengthen the friendship between the Eric and Dan.  Joanie’s picks:

• Overs: Falcons, Jets and Texans

• Unders: Giants, Redskins and Bengals

Russell Catelli as Roger Phillips – Roger, nephew of Mr. and Mrs. C, showed up late to Happy Days and we really didn’t know anything about him.  Somewhat similar to Russell and the Over/Under Challenge.  Never fear, the guy who played Roger Phillips went on to become the legendary Jefferson on Married….With Children so we all know Russell is capable of big things.  Roger’s picks:

• Overs: Patriots, Panthers and Chargers

• Unders: Bengals, Raiders and Buccaneers

Mike Agostino as Spike - Now I am really running out of things to write.  I don't know Mike but he seems like a pretty good guy - he even put his picks in a nice box format with the O/U numbers next to each one when he sent them to me.  I thought that was really going above and beyond.  It was that attention to detail that saved him from being the Challenge's Pinky Tuscadero.  Not sure Chachi's punk cousin is any better but at least he's a dude.  Spike's picks:

• Overs: Cowboys, Steelers and Broncos

• Unders: Vikings, Panthers and Bears

Heath Loney as Pinky Tuscadero - Can't say that the Locks feels great about saddling a guy we don't know with the dreaded Pinky Tuscadero label but we've run out of characters and we've run out of competitors.  For the record, Heath seems like a pretty good guy too.  He just didn't put his picks in that nice box format that Mike did.  It was really that close between those two.  Pinky's picks:

• Overs: Patriots, Falcons and Lions

• Unders: Niners, Bengals and Buccaneers

Bill Celli as Charles "Chuck" Cunningham - Just when I thought I had pulled off the impossible and assigned a whopping 18 characters from a single television show, I get not one, but two, last minute entries.  However, Bill - owner of both entries, an O/U first - got them both in under the wire so he's just as entitled to a title shot as the rest of us.  Problem is, he's going to get a character that absolutely nobody knows anything about.  That's right, Bill is our Charles "Chuck" Cunningham - Richie's long forgotten older brother who disappeared without explanation following Season 2.  Let's hope Billy  has some staying power and doesn't force us to rekindle talk of "Chuck Cunningham Syndrome" to describe an unexplained disappearance.  Chuck's picks (both sets):

Team Aldo:

• Overs: Steelers, Raiders and Redskins

• Unders: Niners, Chargers and Bengals

Team Hojo:

• Overs: Buccaneers, Raiders and Titans

• Unders: Bears, Niners and Bengals

 

David Dirito as Lori Beth Allen Cunningham - This time I really, really thought I was done.  I was quite satisfied with myself too.  20 entries, 19 characters.  Not too bad if I must say so myself.  Then I got what everyone who knows any better dreads: a text message from Brien Dirito.  When exactly did he learn to use anything more advanced than a rotary phone?  Well sure enough, he had another Dirito that wanted in and so it was back to the drawing board for the Locks, just as we crept up to the 11:00 p.m. entry deadline.  The price that must be paid for a tired, and thus sloppy, Locksmith involves a handkerchief around the neck.  That's right, Lori Beth Allen Cunningham has entered the building.  Richie's eventual wife is sneaking in just before curfew and trying to take home a Letterman sweater and the Over/Under Challenge.  At the very least, David should handily win the Battle of the Diritos.  Lori Beth's picks:

• Overs: Raiders, Cardinals and Rams

• Unders: Bears, Niners and Dolphins

2011 O/U NFL Challenge - Entries and Guidance

The deadline for entries in the 2011 Over/Under NFL Challenge is on the horizon.  The Locks needs to receive all submissions (tbrons@vidacommunication.com) by 11:00 p.m. (Pacific) on Wednesday, September 7.  With the economy continuing to stick hot pokers in all of our asses, the Locks has decided to issue a grand fuck you to economists everywhere and raise the entry fee for the pool.  We'll be collecting $20 a head this season, meaning better payouts for better predictions.

The rules for the Over/Under challenge remain the same as always.  Review the predicted win totals for each team as provided by the Las Vegas Hilton (see numbers to the left) and select three teams that you think will win less games than the Vegas prediction (Unders) and 3 teams that you think will win more games than the Vegas prediction (Overs).  

 

You choose your 6 teams and email them to me before the first game of the NFL season (scheduled for September 8) and the deadline referenced above.  At the end of the season, whoever has the most correct teams wins the pool.  Simple enough.  We have tie-breakers covered though I won't go into the complex abacus-required mathematics in this post.

 

Once all entries are received, we will post them all on Absolute Locks so we can all follow along throughout the season.  As you'll see, we've also carved out some valuable real estate to honor last season's victor, none other than Screech Powers aka Eric Burke.  Pick prudently and you may find yourself in the Champion Corner come this time next year.

 

Spread the word liberally.  All are welcome as long as they will pay the entry fee.

We're Back

After a several week hiatus which saw the Locks reinvigorate its own gambling habit, ride a great wave of success through college bowl season and then come crashing back to earth via the NFL playoffs and NBA, we're getting back to our responsibilities.  That's right, we're back to feed our picks to you and only you.  And that is the way that it should be.  It is time to make hay with college basketball.  Lord knows we've done enough research over the past several weeks.  Don't believe me?  Well I now know enough about the Stetson Hatters, Bethune-Cookman and Carver Bible College to make Joe Lunardi blush.  How is that for getting into the trenches?

College Basketball:

Clemson @ North Carolina - Line is UNC -5.5 - Carolina is an absolute mess right now.  Without a single guard who can hit a jump shot, UNC's talented big men have nowhere to work down low.  Harrison Barnes just has not adjusted to the college game and even in a down ACC, the Tar Heels often look out-of-sync.  With that description, do you trust them to beat anyone by 6?  Me neither.  Take the Tigers and the 5.5 points.  LOCK IT UP

Michigan @ Northwestern - Line is Northwestern -7 - The Wildcats do have a scrappy team and John Shurna can play ball - no debate here.  However, they have yet to beat any really solid teams (sorry Iowa and Indiana) so we are yet again a bit surprised that a mediocre team would be giving so many points.  While Michigan is riding a nice little four game losing streak - one should note that those included losses to now #2 Kansas and now #1 Ohio State.  They held there own in both of those games.  This team is starting to show glimpses (disregard the last blowout loss to Indiana) and there is talent on the Wolverines.  We're betting they begin turning things around this evening.  Take UM and the 7 points.  LOCK IT UP

TCU @ BYU - Line is BYU -21 - It is not often that you are going to find the Locks advocating the laying of 21 points in a basketball game.  However, BYU is one of the few teams - it might be the only one - that we trust implicitly in college basketball.  These Mormons are for real and that isn't just because many of them are in their mid-20s.  When it comes to back courts, the Cougars have one of the best in the country.  Everyone knows about Jimmer but the other BYU guards can play ball too.  Let's face it, unless this game is played on a football field, TCU will not be competitive.  In Mormon country, Texas Christian will need more than a few prayers to be answered.  Only Alan Stanwick goes to Provo looking for a big score.  Take BYU and lay the points.  LOCK IT UP 

DePaul @ Marquette - Line is Marquette -17.5 - Road victories are very hard to come by in the Big East and that assumes you are a really good team.  DePaul is one of the worst teams in all of power conference college basketball.  Marquette is very good, very scrappy and very capable of pulling down DePaul's pants.  Plus they are looking to avenge a heart-breaking loss at Louisville over the weekend.  We just think this is a train wreck in waiting for the Blue Demons.  Look to Marquette to roll just like they did back in the Dwayne Wade days.  Lay the points.  LOCK IT UP

Kentucky @ Alabama - Line is Kentucky -4.5 - This game violates the one rule that the Locks has come to hold most dear: don't back road favorites, period.  So, we're half expecting the Crimson Tide to cover here.  That said, common sense would argue otherwise.  Kentucky is the much, much, much more talented team.  Sure they are young and that gives coaches fits during the course of a 30 game season.  However, it also leads to some pretty impressive outputs along the way.  We're looking for one of those head-turning displays tonight against a Bama team that is 221st in the country in points per game and that has lost to the likes of St Peters at home.  We love Kentucky here and we better because they are road favorites.  Take Kentucky and lay the 4.5 points.  LOCK IT UP

Christmas Eve Action

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL:

Tulsa vs. Hawaii - Line is Hawaii -10 - As you've likely read everywhere, the expectation is that this game will be a wild shootout.  Both offenses are prolific to say the least and the scoreboard operator should be busy.  Clearly Vegas agrees as they have placed 73.5 as the Over/Under.  That is a huge number.  Yet, we still like the over.  There are a lot of reasons to like Hawaii in this match up, including the fact that they are playing at home.  Yet, the Locks is going to suggest that you ride Tulsa as a double digit underdog in this game.  Tulsa can score with anyone and we expect this game to just go back and forth, touchdown for touchdown.  Hawaii likely wins the game but Tulsa wins for gamblers.  Take Tulsa and 10 points.  Final score is 45-41.  LOCK IT UP

Gambling Trifecta

SAN DIEGO BOWL:

San Diego (-3.5) over Navy

NFL - Thursday Night:

Pittsburgh (-14) over Carolina

College Basketball Teaser:

Georgetown (PK) over Memphis
Rutgers (-4.5) over Saint Peters

One Last Theorem Play and College BBall

LAS VEGAS BOWL:

Boise State vs. Utah - Line is Boise State -17 - Repeat after me: "THEOREM! THEOREM! THEOREM!"  Sure the real rationale for the Boise State Theorem is no longer in play but that doesn't make it any less fun to chant.  We're playing another BSU gambling angle today and we'll call it The Fury.  The Broncos have had over a month to sit around and stew about what was lost on the field in Reno over Thanksgiving weekend.  They have been waiting for a big stage - well, at least a stage - to redeem itself and unleash some fury.  That happens tonight at the expense of a Utah team that was exposed late in the season.  The Utes got smoked at home by TCU - nothing to be ashamed of.  However, they followed that up with one of the season's most humiliating performances in getting demolished at Notre Dame.  Utah is down to its second string QB for this game as well.  We're just not expecting this game to be close.  Kellen Moore should throw for about 400 yards and 5 TDs and the Broncos D should step it on up.  Take Boise State in a cake walk and give those points.  Final score is 54-23.  LOCK IT UP 

College Basketball:

We have afternoon basketball today thanks to holiday tourneys in Cancun and Hawaii, among other places.  Then we have a number of evening games.  Here are a few to make some money on:

Washington State (-9) over Mississippi St (Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii) - Miss St suspended its best player for this game - not that they had a chance even with him in the lineup.

Michigan State (-6.5) at home over Texas - The Spartans finally get on track at home.

Drexel (+13) at Syracuse - Drexel proved to be a handful in an upset of Louisville and have a big-time, big man to contend with.  The Cuse is having trouble closing games out.  Look for a backdoor Drexel cover.

Xavier (+5) at Gonzaga - Because Xavier is one of the toughest and most underrated teams in the country each year and they don't mind hitting the road.  And because Gonzaga's reputation might have finally gotten out in front of them.

Stetson (+5) over Akron (Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic) - Because the Stetson Hatters are due - trust me.

Beef O Brady Bowl - Sports Don't Get Any Better Than This

We're looking to knock off some of the College Bowl rust that we exposed during Saturday's 1-2 effort.  Thankfully the warriors from Troy decided to show up in the late game or the Locks would have pulled the dreaded 0-fer.  Well, we hope you're hungry because tonight we get the Beef O Brady Bowl.

BEEF O' BRADY BOWL:

Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville - Line is Louisville -2.5 - We're riding the dog in this one.  Louisville's defensive performance this season is all-the-rage, all of a sudden.  Well, let's not forget that all of those impressive defensive performances came against the putrid Big East - they should be discounted.  We like Southern Mississippi's moxie and its streaking QB.  This team, which averages 37 points per game, is going to test the Cardinal's defensive prowess and we think they come out of this quite well.  We'll take the points and ride the non-Big East school.  Final score is 27-24.  LOCK IT UP

NFL: Back to .500, Again

Well, the Locks just doesn't seem too comfortable getting too far on either side of .500 when it comes to the NFL this year.  After a 7-7 week to date (didn't profile the Raiders game due to lack of timely line), we right back where we started 15 weeks ago.  Instead of 0-0, we're 106-106-7.  Like kissing your goddamn sister.

Well, we'll try to make the over .500 push starting tonight in frozen Minnesota:

Three Star Special:

Chicago @ Minnesota - Line is Bear -7 - This game is just chock full of story lines - unfortunately, not many of them have too much to do with NFL playoff implications (aside from the Bears clinching a birth with a W).  No, instead we have another will Brett play debate.  We have a playing field that might be more frozen than the current relationship between Tom Coughlin and Matt Dodge.  We have the potential debut of a guy named Joe Webb.  We have the potential for an always fun "snow" game.  And finally, we have hundreds of thousands of fantasy playoff match ups hanging on the performances of Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and the Bears D (if you're somewhat lucky) or Jay Cutler, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin or Johnny Knox (if you are not).

With all the chaos encircling this game - not to mention the insanity that has governed the NFL all season - how can we expect anything other than the unexpected this evening.  When we get that sort of feeling in our demoralized (note: we're Giants fans) bones, then we take the points.  Bring on the ice, bring on the snow, bring on Joe Webb and any other lunacy that can be conceived.  Tonight will be certain to give you something you never thought you'd see.  We'll take Minny +7.  Final score is 27-23 Vikings.  LOCK IT UP