Christmas Eve Action

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL:

Tulsa vs. Hawaii - Line is Hawaii -10 - As you've likely read everywhere, the expectation is that this game will be a wild shootout.  Both offenses are prolific to say the least and the scoreboard operator should be busy.  Clearly Vegas agrees as they have placed 73.5 as the Over/Under.  That is a huge number.  Yet, we still like the over.  There are a lot of reasons to like Hawaii in this match up, including the fact that they are playing at home.  Yet, the Locks is going to suggest that you ride Tulsa as a double digit underdog in this game.  Tulsa can score with anyone and we expect this game to just go back and forth, touchdown for touchdown.  Hawaii likely wins the game but Tulsa wins for gamblers.  Take Tulsa and 10 points.  Final score is 45-41.  LOCK IT UP

Gambling Trifecta

SAN DIEGO BOWL:

San Diego (-3.5) over Navy

NFL - Thursday Night:

Pittsburgh (-14) over Carolina

College Basketball Teaser:

Georgetown (PK) over Memphis
Rutgers (-4.5) over Saint Peters

One Last Theorem Play and College BBall

LAS VEGAS BOWL:

Boise State vs. Utah - Line is Boise State -17 - Repeat after me: "THEOREM! THEOREM! THEOREM!"  Sure the real rationale for the Boise State Theorem is no longer in play but that doesn't make it any less fun to chant.  We're playing another BSU gambling angle today and we'll call it The Fury.  The Broncos have had over a month to sit around and stew about what was lost on the field in Reno over Thanksgiving weekend.  They have been waiting for a big stage - well, at least a stage - to redeem itself and unleash some fury.  That happens tonight at the expense of a Utah team that was exposed late in the season.  The Utes got smoked at home by TCU - nothing to be ashamed of.  However, they followed that up with one of the season's most humiliating performances in getting demolished at Notre Dame.  Utah is down to its second string QB for this game as well.  We're just not expecting this game to be close.  Kellen Moore should throw for about 400 yards and 5 TDs and the Broncos D should step it on up.  Take Boise State in a cake walk and give those points.  Final score is 54-23.  LOCK IT UP 

College Basketball:

We have afternoon basketball today thanks to holiday tourneys in Cancun and Hawaii, among other places.  Then we have a number of evening games.  Here are a few to make some money on:

Washington State (-9) over Mississippi St (Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii) - Miss St suspended its best player for this game - not that they had a chance even with him in the lineup.

Michigan State (-6.5) at home over Texas - The Spartans finally get on track at home.

Drexel (+13) at Syracuse - Drexel proved to be a handful in an upset of Louisville and have a big-time, big man to contend with.  The Cuse is having trouble closing games out.  Look for a backdoor Drexel cover.

Xavier (+5) at Gonzaga - Because Xavier is one of the toughest and most underrated teams in the country each year and they don't mind hitting the road.  And because Gonzaga's reputation might have finally gotten out in front of them.

Stetson (+5) over Akron (Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic) - Because the Stetson Hatters are due - trust me.

Beef O Brady Bowl - Sports Don't Get Any Better Than This

We're looking to knock off some of the College Bowl rust that we exposed during Saturday's 1-2 effort.  Thankfully the warriors from Troy decided to show up in the late game or the Locks would have pulled the dreaded 0-fer.  Well, we hope you're hungry because tonight we get the Beef O Brady Bowl.

BEEF O' BRADY BOWL:

Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville - Line is Louisville -2.5 - We're riding the dog in this one.  Louisville's defensive performance this season is all-the-rage, all of a sudden.  Well, let's not forget that all of those impressive defensive performances came against the putrid Big East - they should be discounted.  We like Southern Mississippi's moxie and its streaking QB.  This team, which averages 37 points per game, is going to test the Cardinal's defensive prowess and we think they come out of this quite well.  We'll take the points and ride the non-Big East school.  Final score is 27-24.  LOCK IT UP

NFL: Back to .500, Again

Well, the Locks just doesn't seem too comfortable getting too far on either side of .500 when it comes to the NFL this year.  After a 7-7 week to date (didn't profile the Raiders game due to lack of timely line), we right back where we started 15 weeks ago.  Instead of 0-0, we're 106-106-7.  Like kissing your goddamn sister.

Well, we'll try to make the over .500 push starting tonight in frozen Minnesota:

Three Star Special:

Chicago @ Minnesota - Line is Bear -7 - This game is just chock full of story lines - unfortunately, not many of them have too much to do with NFL playoff implications (aside from the Bears clinching a birth with a W).  No, instead we have another will Brett play debate.  We have a playing field that might be more frozen than the current relationship between Tom Coughlin and Matt Dodge.  We have the potential debut of a guy named Joe Webb.  We have the potential for an always fun "snow" game.  And finally, we have hundreds of thousands of fantasy playoff match ups hanging on the performances of Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and the Bears D (if you're somewhat lucky) or Jay Cutler, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin or Johnny Knox (if you are not).

With all the chaos encircling this game - not to mention the insanity that has governed the NFL all season - how can we expect anything other than the unexpected this evening.  When we get that sort of feeling in our demoralized (note: we're Giants fans) bones, then we take the points.  Bring on the ice, bring on the snow, bring on Joe Webb and any other lunacy that can be conceived.  Tonight will be certain to give you something you never thought you'd see.  We'll take Minny +7.  Final score is 27-23 Vikings.  LOCK IT UP

NFL Picks

Five Star Special:

Saints (+2) @ Ravens 

Four Star Specials:

Cowboys (-7) vs. Redskins
Falcons (-6) @ Seahawks
Chiefs (+2.5) @ Rams

Three Star Specials:

Browns (+1) @ Bengals
Texans (+1.5) @ Titans
Giants (-3) vs. Eagles
Lions (+4.5) @ Bucs 

Two Star Specials:

Jaguars (+5) @ Colts
Jets (+4.5) @ Steelers
Bills (+5) @ Miami
Packers (+14) @ Patriots

One Star Special:

Cardinals (+2.5) @ Panthers

Roy Munson, Walter Sobchak, Donny, and The Dude: It's Time to Go Bowling

One of the Locks' favorite seasons is upon.  No, it is not the holiday season.  It is college bowl season.  We get 35 games in just under a month (and we'll pick all of em).  This gives us the opportunity to wipe the season slate clean and churn out an impressive bowl winning percentage to salvage our reputation (not that impressive) and pride (virtually non-existent). 

How can you not get fired up about the Beef O' Brady's Bowl or a match up between Ohio and Troy?  All kidding aside, we are about to embark on one of the best sports periods of each year.  We kick it off with three bowl games this Saturday:

NEW MEXICO BOWL:

BYU vs. UTEP - Line is BYU -11.5 - If you think crazy things happen during the regular season in college football, just wait until bowl season.  Teams are suspending players due to a variety of missteps, coaches are taking other jobs and leaving schools high and dry, players are spending relatively unsupervised periods of time in places like New Orleans and Las Vegas.  It is a recipe for shenanigans, especially in some of the lesser bowls.  Let's chalk this game up to that "crazy" scenario.  UTEP has been banged up all year but appears to be getting healthy for this match up with a BYU team that has underperformed all year.  Expect the unexpected in this contest, which means that 11.5 points is just too big a line.  We like BYU to win but they won't cover this number.  Take the points and UTEP.  Final score is 33-27.  LOCK IT UP

HUMANITARIAN BOWL:

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State - Line is Northern Illinois -1.5 - The Locks had been pumping the prospects of Northern Illinois for the last few weeks of MAC conference play.  They simply looked unstoppable.  Then they stopped and got whacked int he MAC championship game by Miami of Ohio.  Not good.  That loss cost them a conference championship and a better bowl appearance.  They are still smarting over it and we think it carries into this game.  Not to mention the entire coaching staff is on the move to the University of Minnesota.  Let's say that focus might not be on NIU's side heading into this game.  The Fresno State Bulldogs on the other hand have been playing well and is getting back one of its key RBs for this tilt.  It just feels like there is more certainly and hunger on the side of Fresno State here.  We like the Bulldogs in a minor upset.  Take the 1.5 points and bet Fresno State.  Final score is 31-28.  LOCK IT UP

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Troy  vs. Ohio - Line is Troy -3 - Here is one of those bowls that promises to make some news.  Seeing how the game is in the Big Easy, that news might come in the form of pre-game player suspensions for sexual assault or some other alcohol-fueled misdeed.  Let's be honest, nobody out there has a real good feel for this game - note the generic 3 point Vegas spread which admits as much.  One interesting piece of information that we stumbled across is that this is Troy's third New Orleans Bowl in the past three years.  You'd expect its players not to be as distracted by the location as the Ohio team might be.  That's enough analysis for us.  The favorite needs to cover some of these bowl games.  Take Troy and lay the points.  Final score is 41-30.  LOCK IT UP

Back to .500 in NFL

Believe it or not, the Locks stands at 99-99-6 thus far this NFL season.  Certainly not numbers we're proud of but better than some of those other ATS prognosticators out there.  Here's to a late season run to pad the winning percentage:

Three Star Special:

San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers - Line is Chargers -10 - Curiously this line keeps moving higher and higher at the same time more and more Chargers are deemed inactive for the game.  Odd that not having Gates and Floyd make S.D. a better betting proposition but that is what is happening.  We liked the Chargers as a 9-point favorite so I guess we stick with the gut and like them as a 10-point favorite.  The Niners will come to play tonight.  They believe they can still make the playoffs and if there is anything that Singletary can do right (and that is debatable) it is motivate his players.  We expect a tight and entertaining first half with both teams feeling each other out.  But then, the Rivers show will take control in the second half and we'll finally be reminded just how good the Rivers-VJax combination is.  Look for at least two deep balls (50 yard plus) to VJax during the game.  When all is said and done, SD will break SF's spirit and pull away for a convincing W.  Take the Chargers, lay the points.  Final score is 30-17.  LOCK IT UP

Monday Night Football

We've already posted the Ravens -3 as our Five Star Special of the week.  There is one game that we have yet to pick thanks to snow, collapsing roofs and a detour to Detroit.  Yes, the Giants and Vikings will play tonight giving us our first Monday night double-header in quite some time. 

The Locks' pick for that game is:

Four Star Special:

NY Giants (-4.5) over Minnesota Vikings  - LOCK IT UP!

NFL Picks

Five Star Special:

Baltimore -3 @ Houston

Four Star Specials:

Tampa Bay -1 @ Washington
Cincinnati +8.5 @ Pittsburgh
Dallas +3.5 vs. Philadelphia
New England -3 @ Chicago

Three Star Specials:

Green Bay -7 @ Detroit
Cleveland (PK) @ Buffalo
St. Louis +9.5 @ New Orleans
Kansas City +10 @ San Diego

Two Star Specials:

Jacksonville -3.5 vs. Oakland
Carolina +7.5 vs. Atlanta
Miami +5 @ NY Jets

One Star Special:

Seattle +5 @ San Francisco

College Basketball Heating Up

Many, many good college basketball games taking place today.  Here's your guide to winners:

Marquette -1 vs. Wisconsin
Texas A&M +1 vs. Washington
Oklahoma State -2 vs. Missouri State
Arizona +3.5 vs BYU (neutral court)
UMass +1.5 vs. Seton Hall
Notre Dame -8 vs. Gonzaga
Kansas State -9 @ Loyola Chicago
Pitt -8 vs. Tennessee

Trust Your Traditional Powers Tonight - Even on the Road

Tonight, we have two road favorites - spanning two different sports - whose names have been synonymous with success for quite some time.  The Locks urges you to trust those track records and put your money on these powerhouses:

College Basketball:

Georgetown @ Temple - Line is Georgetown -1.5 - Sure Temple has also made some big waves in the college basketball world over the past 30 years but they are not on the same level as the Hoyas.  Georgetown is off to another impressive start this season, including a very impressive OT road victory over a solid Missouri team.  The Owls play stifling defense, preferring that the game ends up in the 50s but that is easier against middle-of-the-road Atlantic 10 teams than against high-powered Big East schools.  The Locks - though blindly loyal to the Orange of Syracuse - admires the talents of many of these Hoyas, especially PG Chris Wright.  Temple has already lost two games to middling teams (Texas A&M and California).  There will be nothing to be embarrassed about when G'Town hands them loss #3 on the season.  Take the Hoyas and lay the points.  Final score is 67-59.  LOCK IT UP

NFL:

Indianapolis @ Tennessee - Line is Indy -3.5 - The Colts are looking as vulnerable as they have in a long, long time.  The lack of a running game or a defense that can stop the run will do that to you.  Add in an increasingly porous offense line that throws off Peyton's timing and Indy has dropped three straight game (during which the almighty Manning has throw 11 picks).  Good thing for the Colts that they face a team that's in an even bigger tailspin than they are.  The Titans have turned into a train wreck.  Vince Young is out for the year and not allowed around the team.  Randy Moss has yet to show up in Tennessee following being claimed off of waivers.  The defense is banged up.  And, most surprisingly, Chris Johnson has been running like Curt Menefee in recent weeks.  The Locks believes that the odds favor the Colts remedying their problems with a bit more ease that the Titans.  Also, as a Thursday game, these teams have not been able to really throw much of a tailored offensive game plan together.  Instead, they'll have to rely on their base offense to get them through this game.  We'll take the Colts' base offense and the audible master Peyton Manning in that situation.  Chris Johnson will get his yards against a bad Colts run D but at the end of the day, the Colts need this W very, very badly and the Titans are a bit too dysfunctional right now.  We'll lay the 3.5 points and roll with Indy.  Final score is 27-20.  LOCK IT UP

Money Train Has Entered the Station

College basketball is making a whole lot of sense thus far this season - meaning it cannot be any different from college football. Thank God!

The Locksmith is looking to keep its hot CBB start rolling.  Here is a can't miss teaser for tonight:

Teaser:

This is a 4-Team, 4.5-Point Teaser that will pay you 3:1:

UNC (-4.5) @ Evansville - Evansville is playing well but there is a major talent discrepancy here.  The Tar Heels will build on the big win over Kentucky as Harrison Barnes gets more accustomed to the college game.

Boston College (-2.5) vs. Providence - The Friars are 9-1 but have played absolutely no-one and have barely left the state of Rhode Island.  It is a young team that will be getting its first taste of a hostile environment.

Missouri (PK) vs. Vanderbilt - The Tigers have been road warriors early this year and that has likely tired their legs - and their legs are key to the type of tempo they like to run.  They've had nearly a week off and are back at home.  We expect a solid performance against a very good Vandy team.

UNLV (-10.5) vs. Boise State - If this were football, we'd be all over the Broncos.  However, the Running Rebels are one of the Locks' favorite teams thus far this season.  They have a ton of talent and get to fly under the radar out in Vegas.  Look to the Rebels to climb the polls toward the top 10 over the next few weeks.  This game should provide a nice opportunity to showcase its talent.

LOCK THIS TEASER UP!

Ramping Up College Basketball

No star ranking system for college basketball.  Instead, the Locksmith will offer straight bets, as well as teasers.  We're stating to ramp up into what should be an excellent college basketball season - both for fans and the Locks.  Get on board early. 

Straight Wagers:

Purdue @ Valparaiso - Line is Purdue -7 - This line should be higher.  Either Vegas or gamblers (likely both) are still punishing the Boilermakers for losing Robbie Hummel for the year.  They forget this team still has two other future NBAers and a stifling defense.  Valpo sold this game out so it might stay close for a little bit but this line should be about 5-6 points higher.  Take Purdue and give the 7 points.  Final score is 73-57.  LOCK IT UP

Saint Bonaventure @ Saint John's - Line is Johnies -14 - I'm as big a Big East supporter as you'll find and not even I can fathom the Johnies being a 14 point favorite against anyone.  Is Steve Lavin turning things around at St. John's?  Sure he is but this will take some time.  The Bonnies also have a future NBAer on their roster and he makes the Johnies' big men a bit nervous.  Take the points here in a game that will be relatively close.  Final score is 76-71.  LOCK IT UP

Teaser:

This is a 4-Team, 4.5-Point Teaser that will pay you 3:1: 

Purdue (-2.5)
Saint Bonnie (+18.5)
Kansas (-6.5) over Memphis - Kansas is so proficient on offense and Memphis is undisciplined
Georgia (+8) over Georgia Tech - This is a major in-state rivalry so we expect the game to stay very close.  Take the points in that case.

LOCK THIS TEASER UP!

NFL - Week 13

Five Star Specials:

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Cincinnati

Four Star Specials:

Chicago (-5) @ Detroit
Green Bay (-9) vs. San Francisco
Baltimore (-3) vs. Pittsburgh

Three Star Specials:

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Minnesota
St. Louis (-3.5) @ Arizona
New York Giants (-7.5) vs. Washington
Atlanta (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay
San Diego (-13) vs. Oakland  

Two Star Specials:

Cleveland (+5) @ Miami
Tennessee (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville
Carolina (+4.5) @ Seattle
Denver (+9) @ Kansas City
New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England

One Star Specials:

Dallas (+5) @ Indianapolis

Conference Championship Saturday with a Bit of College Hoop Sprinkled In

College Football:

Four Star Special:

Virginia Tech -3.5 over Florida State - Va Tech peaking at the right time of year - as usual.  Consider buying half a point down to -3 if you're so inclined.

Oklahoma -4 over Nebraska - A banged up Taylor Martinez puts the Huskers in a really bad spot against a hot Sooner team.

Three Star Special:

Connecticut +2.5 over South Florida - UConn has overcome tremendous odds to make it this far.  They are one win from a BCS bowl and they aren't going to blow it now.

Two Star Special:

Auburn -4 over South Carolina - We've ridden Auburn too far this year to back down now.  Though this has all the makings of a classic battle.  In teaser-land, we'd go the other way (see below).

College Football Bonus Teaser:

3-Team, 10-Point Tease (Bet 120 to win 100) - UConn (+12.5), Oklahoma (+6) and South Carolina (+14)

College Basketball:

We're not loving any college basketball games straight up today.  These early season mismatch present too many 16, 17 and 18 point lines to be really comfortable and we're still feeling most of these teams out.  That said, we have a number of suggestions for a college football teaser today.  We'd recommend teasing the spreads 5.5 points.  Under those parameters we like the following teams:

Michigan -2.5 vs. Harvard
Oklahoma State +2.5 @ LaSalle
Butler +20 vs. Duke (neutral court)
Purdue -6 vs. Alabama
West Virginia +3 @ Miami
UNLV -10.5 @ Nevada

If you tease all 6 the payout is 5/1
Tease 5 = 3.5/1
Tease 4 = 2/1
Tease 3 = 1.4/1

Friday Night Lights

College Football:

Four Star Special:

Northern Illinois vs. Miami (Ohio) - MAC Championship Game - Line is Northern Illinois -18 - The line doesn't lie in this match up.  Northern Illinois is a very good team - a well oiled machine on both sides of the ball.  Miami is something significantly less impressive.  We don't expect this game to be close.  Northern Illinois has scored at least 59 points in each of it last three games, including last week's 71-3 drubbing of Eastern Michigan.   We think Miami is in trouble - especially since they'll be playing without their starting QB.  Lay the points in the battle on a neutral field.  Final score is 43-17.  LOCK IT UP

Bonus Teaser:

In what is turning into a new regular feature on the Locks, we're offering a bonus college football teaser for consideration.  In addition to the Northern Illinois game previewed above, we also like the Illinois @ Fresno State contest this evening.  We think that game plays itself out rather closely and thus teaser the underdog up is the way to go.  Our recommendation is a two-team, 6-point tease: Northern Illinois (-12) and Fresno State (+11.5).  This pays even money.  LOCK IT UP

College Basketball:


Kansas State @ Washington State - Line is Kansas State -3 - We've already whiffed once one K-State this early basketball season.  We don't intend to do it twice.  The Wildcats are a very good team led by an exceptional PG.  The fact that Jacob Pullen had a disastrous game against Duke is nothing to worry about.  He'll bounce back and get all the help he needs from his supporting cast of virtually endless athletic big men.  Washington State hasn't been tested by a single respectable basketball team yet this season.  That will change tonight.  We're rather surprised by this line and will take advantage of it.  Take K-State and give the suckers the 3 points.  Final score is 78-69.  LOCK IT UP

Thursday Night in the NFL

Two Star Special:

Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles - Line is Eagles -8 - This is a game that is giving the Locksmith fits.  First off, let's establish that we envision an Eagle victory.  It is pretty difficult to argue against that.  However, it is the line that has us a bit frazzled.  The primary reason for that hesitation is that as bad as the Texans are on defense, they are equally talented on offense.  Any team with Arian Foster and Andre Johnson can put up points on anyone.  Furthermore, this isn't the Eagles defense of seasons' past.  This is a team that just got a 30-spot hung on them by the Bears.  There are leaks in this here ship.  So while we foresee the Eagles offense having its way during this game and scoring somewhere in the neighborhood of 35 points, we also think the Texans might just have 28 points of their own - especially if Philly gets up early and Schaub needs to throw an assortment of deep balls to Andre and check downs to Arian.  In need of a selection here, the Locks is going to lean toward taking the points and the Texans.  Final score is 34-28.  LOCK IT UP

Teaser Special for Consideration - For those of you that are as scared of this line as the Locks, we offer a teaser special for your consideration.  This is merely an added bonus and won't count for or against the Locksmith in his overall NFL record.  We'd recommend placing a 6-point tease with the Eagles (-2) and the Over (46.5).  This pays our 1/1 so you double your money with a win.  Food for thought.