The deadline for entries in the 2010 Over/Under NFL Challenge is rapidly approaching. The Locks needs to receive all submissions (tbrons@vidacommunication.com) by 11:00 p.m. (Pacific) on Wednesday, September 8.
As promised, the Locks is offering its predictions on the Over/Unders for all 32 NFL teams. Before we get to the picks, a few observations and insights:
- There are a total of 256 regular season games in the NFL and thus 256 total Wins during the season. If you add up Vegas' Over/Under W totals for all 32 teams, you get 257.5. As you see, those numbers are pretty darn close. So in theory, the number of teams that go over should be roughly equal to the number of teams that go under. The key word in that last sentence was roughly. A few supreme over or under-achievers can skew the numbers.
- In examining each team's schedule for the purposes of predicting O/Us, it is amazing how often the Vegas number is right on our prediction. Surely Vegas is a pro so this shouldn't be too much of a surprise. However, it's always interesting when you peg a team for 7-8 wins and the Vegas number is 7.5. It makes calling the O/U an agonizing process.
- No matter how much time you spend in the preseason trying to predict a team's fortunes, it can often turn into a pointless exercise once the injuries begin to pile up. No single factor affects a team's O/U prospects - not even strength of schedule - as much as the unpredictable nature of injuries. In other words, luck will play a key role in this contest.
- Speaking of strength of schedule - don't overlook this factor. Too often we see a team that we think is very good and automatically assume that they are a lock as an Over. Same goes for bad teams and unders. However, a very good team, with a very unfavorable schedule can struggle to win 9 or 10 games whereas a mediocre team with a favorable schedule can easily scratch 8 to 9 wins. Consider the schedules - I'm looking at you Dallas and Baltimore on the tough schedule side and you Arizona and San Diego on the easy schedule side.
With that lesson complete, we turn our attention to the Locks' predictions for the 2010 Over/Unders:
Arizona Cardinals Over
Atlanta Falcons Under
Baltimore Ravens Over
Buffalo Bills Under
Carolina Panthers Over
Carolina Panthers Over
Chicago Bears Under
Cincinnati Bengals Over
Cleveland Browns Over
Dallas Cowboys Under
Denver Broncos Under
Detroit Lions Over
Green Bay Packers Over
Houston Texans Under
Indianapolis Colts Over
Jacksonville Jaguars Under
Kansas City Chiefs Over
Miami Dolphins Under
Minnesota Vikings Over
New England Pats Under
New Orleans Saints Over
New York Giants Over
New York Jets Over
Oakland Raiders Over
Philadelphia Eagles Over
Pittsburgh Steelers Under
San Diego Chargers Over
SF 49ers Over
Seattle Seahawks Over
St. Louis Rams Under
Tampa Bay Bucs Under
Tennessee Titans Under
Washington Redskins Under
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