I've Popped My Cherry

Good morning and welcome to the maiden voyage of "Absolute Locks," your can't miss source for all things sports gambling (or at least all the things I feel inclined to cover, which, in truth, may not be all that much). Through this multimedia powerhouse, I will endeavor to channel my infatuation with the sporting life - predominantly baseball, football (college and pro), basketball (college and pro) and horse racing - into an information depot from which you may extract a staggering amount of value.

Not only will this environment offer an almost magical peak into the most likely outcomes of the day's competitive battles, it will also serve to increase your self esteem and, in turn, make women (specifically wives and girlfriends) find you more interesting. For providing you this embarrassment of riches, I ask nothing in return. Just come back often and let me know what you think from time to time.

Without further delay, let's take a look at the sports slate for Tuesday, June 30, 2009:

Disclaimer: I have been forced to create and operate this blog as part of my plea bargain with federal authorities in connection with my convictions for armed robbery, wire fraud and impersonation of a pizza delivery man, which I committed in order to pay off my $567,000 sports gambling debt. (Alright, I made that part up. I haven't lost nearly that much money gambling on sports).

SF Giants at St Louis Cardinals - Let's get an easy one out of the way. How on earth is the Giants' offense going to put runs up against Chris Carpenter in St. Louis. The guy sports a home ERA of 0.43 and is 3-0 at Busch Stadium. Plus, this Giant team is not penciling Will Clark, Kevin Mitchell, Barry Bonds or Jeff Kent into the lineup. Don't get me wrong, this is a scrappy team that can really pitch. However, today will not be one to remember for the offense or Randy Johnson, who Fat Albert has taken deep twice in 11 career at bats. I'm thinking something along the lines of a 6-1 final.

Detroit Tigers at Oakland A's - I'm not going to pretend to know who is going to win this match-up between starting pitchers who might still be better off riding buses in the minor leagues. However, what I do know is that these teams will combined to absolutely clobber the over in this game (9 runs). Armando Gallaraga has already face Oakland once this year and came away sporting an ERA of 67.50 (that is not a typo). He gave up four hits, three walks and five earned runs in 2/3 of an inning. Not quite a qualifying as a quality start. Opposing Gallaraga will be the highly-touted Gio Gonzalez. While Gio can strike batters out, he can also surrender hits and runs in a hurry. Granted it is a small sample, but his career numbers are as follows: 1-5, 7.77. That includes a home ERA this season of 9.82. I'm thinking that the likes of Miggy Cabrera, Granderson, Polanco, Inge and Holliday, Giambi and Kennedy might be licking their chops right now. Take the over, I beg you. Take the over. We're looking at a 9-7 game here.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians - This is an interesting game to make some dough on. The money line has Cleveland listed as a -200 favorite. This is solely based on the fact that Cliff Lee is starting the game for the Indians. However, unless Lee plans to pitch all 9 innings (which he has only done once this year), the White Sox will have opportunities to face the Cleveland bullpen. That, in and of itself, makes the Sox an appetizing underdog play. Combine that with the fact that many Sox regulars have pretty solid career numbers against Lee, that the Sox have a better than .500 record against lefties (while the Indians do not and are facing one here in Clayton Richard) and that the Sox are just as good (or bad) away from ChiTown as they are at home, and you have the recipe for a profitable outcome. This might be a stretch but I can't get away from Chicago +170. Sox win 5-4.


TIME FOR SOME QUICK-HITTERS:


Tampa Bay at Toronto - Rays are starting to click and Garza dominates the birds. Take TB at the price of -122. Rays take it 4-1.

Boston at Baltimore - While I'm not yet buying the John Smoltz comeback, I can't help but take the Sox here. They're facing Rich Hill and they absolutely wear out left-handers. Plus, since Smoltz is still a relatively unknown commodity, the price on the Sox here is reasonable. Take them at -123. Sox capture this one 8-3.

Colorado at LA - Jason Marquis? Really? I'm happy the guy is pitching a bit better this year but I can't shake memories of him giving up 10+ runs in starts during the past few seasons. His 9 wins are a mirage and he'll start pitching to his career norms beginning tonight. Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs at +135. They win 7-4.

LAA at Texas - Texas gets one back tonight thanks to the fact they don't have to start Vicente Padilla. I'm not a Joe Saunders guy and think the Rangers will knock him around. Big statement game for Texas in battle for the West. Rangers win 7-2.


NYM at Milwaukee - The Mets are a mess. A total joke. However, anytime you can get a line of -130 line with Johan starting, you take it. Mets put up just enough offense to squeak out a W for Santana. They prevail 3-1.