Get ready for a wild Sunday of NFL action. We've analyzed the game and get ready for this, we only like two, count em two, home teams against the spread. Either we're way off base or home field advantage really is a wildly overrated element in the National Football League.
Oakland @ Houston - Line is Texans -8.5 - Let's get one of the home teams we like out of the way early. Or should we say let's get one of the road teams that we hate out of the way early. The Raiders are a collection of jokes and the punchline of the biggest knee-slapper is named JaMarcus Russell. When will this experiment end. Hopefully we won't have to wait for the passing of Al David to witness the passing of the Russell era in Oakland. Having a guy who can't complete more than 30% of his passes is embarrassing. Houston's offense has gotten over its week 1 stinker against the Jets. The defense still needs work but against OakTown, it will be more than enough. We expect this game to get out of hand early (look to Steve Slaton to run wild) and the Raiders to simply lay down. Houston will cover here with ease. Take the Texans -8.5. They will win 27-10. LOCK IT UP
Tennessee @ Jacksonville - Line is Titans -3 - On the surface, this looks like it should be a competitive game and the line is just about right. However, this is deceiving since the one thing that the Jags do well offensive is the one thing the Titans are very good at defending. I am speaking of MJD and the Titans run defense. I'm not sure Jones-Drew is going to have a whole lot of success in this one. That means David Garrard will have to step up and that is not something I am comfortable counting on. The Titans are much better than an 0-3 team and they have to start showing that at some point. We think Chris Johnson has another field day and Jack Del Rio gets another step closer to collecting an unemployment check. We're picking Tennessee -3. Final score is 26-17. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ New England - Line is Ravens -2 - We love the fact that Vegas, and more importantly Patriot backers, have gone way overboard based on last week's win vs. the Falcons. Atlanta did not match up well against the Pats defensively. That will not be the case with the Ravens. Just remember what ex-Raven defensive coordinate Rex Ryan did to NE just two weeks ago. The Ravens might be one of the 2 best teams in the NFL right now, the other is not New England. This line should be bigger. We love Baltimore to win this one convincingly. Take the Ravens -2 to win 24-14. LOCK IT UP
Cincinnati @ Cleveland - Line is Bengals -6 - OK, so here is my second home team that I like and I bet you didn't see that coming. We're not sure that the Bengals should be a six point road favorite against anyone just yet. Last week was a nice win against the Steelers, no doubt. But this team still has some flaws and I'm nowhere near comfortable with Carson Palmer or Cedric Benson. Sure the Browns are horrible and have pretty much given up on the season but NFL teams, no matter how bad, win a few games (unless you're Detroit). So don't expect Cleveland to be this bad week in and week out. This is a big-time rivalry game and perhaps the QB switch will light a fire under the Browns. At least it gives them more big play potential. We like Jerome Harrison to have a nice game running the ball for Cleveland and this one will be closer than people think. Take the home dog Browns +6. Final score will be Cincy 20-17. LOCK IT UP
New York Giants @ Kansas City - Line is Giants -9 - We'll keep this short and sweet. This game will be about as competitive as the Giants' beatdown of the Bucs last week. There is a zero percent chance that KC will win that game and that is supported by rigorous science. The only question is whether the G-men will deal back-to-back shutouts. Take Big Blue -9 to win 30-6. LOCK IT UP.
Detroit @ Chicago - Line is Bears -10 - Like a lot of other people, we are probably getting a bit carried away with last week's Lion win over the woeful Redskins. However, we can see Stafford gaining confidence and Megatron is due to break out one of these weeks. Kevin Smith is convinced he is going to play and if he does, watch out. This Bear defense is not nearly as good as previous editions. Detroit should be able to move the ball. We think the Bears will have no issues getting up and down the field either. Cutler will find his receivers and Forte will finally look like a solid RB. However, the Lions will have enough fight in them to keep this somewhat close. Take Detroit +10 in a game the Bears win 31-24. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Washington - Line is Redskins -8 - Did anyone watch the Redskins play the past few weeks? How can they be an eight point favorite, regardless of their opponent. That said, I saw TB play last week and they probably shouldn't be allowed to play in the NFL right now. There D is filled with guys we've never heard of and they are now starting a QB that nobody has heard of. That said, I think the Skins have bigger issues in this one. Portis is 50/50 and even if he goes he's been pretty poor all year. Jason Campbell is never going to cut it as an NFL QB and Jim Zorn is never going to cut it as an NFL head coach. Look to the Bucs to rally around the new QB and stay in this game. We like Tampa Bay +8 in a game the Skins eek out 17-13. LOCK IT UP
Seattle @ Indianapolis - Line is Colts -10 - The Colts have looked good this year, we'll give you that. However, recall that this team rarely covers big lines and that goes back several years. The Seahawks are really banged up but not without talent. We think they'll try to shorten this game as much as possible (the blueprint against Indy) and hope to be alive in the fourth quarter. Manning will lead his team to victory, with help from Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark (surprise, surprise), but he won't do it in a way that covers this double-digit line. Look to Housh to finally find the endzone and stop his bitching for at least a week. The Colts D will miss Dwight Freeny. Take the Seahawks +10. Colts will win 30-24. LOCK IT UP
New York Jets @ New Orleans - Line is Saints -7 - ESPN did a poll this week asking who would win this game and 49 of 50 states chose the Saints. The only objection came from Hawaii, not New Jersey. We're with the Hawaiians on this one and trust us, it pains us to say so. We are not Jets fans but we can't help but admire what Rex Ryan has done with this team. The Jets are playing like a team possessed. Unlike many analysts, we think the Jets D will throw things at Brees that will slow this offense down. We also think that Sanchez will not be as troubled by the Saints D. This one feels like a game that will be decided by a big defensive or special team TD and we give the nod to the Jets in both those categories. We're calling the outright upset here. But for the purposes of our ATS picks, we endorse New York +7. Final score will be 28-27 Jets. LOCK IT UP
Buffalo @ Miami - Line is a Pick Em - This line is right on target. How can you differentiate from these two teams? We find the Bills' to be a bit grittier and like their RB committee a bit more than Miami's. With Chad Henne getting the start for the Fish, we also need to give the QB advantage to Trent Edwards and Buffalo. Miami has the home field but we don't assign that much value (couldn't you tell)? This one will be a bit of a snoozer so don't waste your time watching. Just put your money on the Bills (Pk Em) and check the final once it's done. That final will be 20-17 Buffalo. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ San Francisco - Line is Niners -9.5 - Too many really large lines this week. More often than not, we'll take the points in those games. We think the move from Bulger to Boller actually helps the Rams and might take a bit of pressure off of Steven Jackson to do everything. Look to St. Louie to put up an admirable fight against a Niner team that still must be a bit shocked from Favre's miracle last week. That said, if any coach will have a team ready to play after a huge disappointment it will be Mike Singletary. We just don't think the Niners have enough offense to cover a 9.5 point line. Take the Rams +9.5 in a game that ends 23-17 in favor of SF. LOCK IT UP
Dallas @ Denver - Line is Cowboys -3 - I'm shocked by how many experts are buying into the Broncos at this point. Sure they are 3-0. Those wins came against the Bengals (on a miracle) and the Browns and Raiders. I don't know about you but that doesn't tell me anything about a team that I still think is one of the worst in the league. Now, the Cowboys are hard to be very confident in these days themselves but they did look much improved in the second half against the Panthers on Monday night. Perhaps they are turning a corner. Regardless, we like Dallas to win this game handily. Take the Boys -3. Final score will be 27-17. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Pittsburgh - Line is Steelers -6 - Here are two of the most frustrating teams in the NFL to gamble on. They never win by as much as they should and sometimes they don't even win at all. We're a bit concerned about what we're seeing from the defending champs this season. They can't run very well and their defense is not its typical self. The Chargers have all the talent in the world and should put together an impressive 60 minutes of football one of these weeks. They'll be amped up to travel to Pitt and we can't imagine them losing by a full TD. In fact, we're leaning toward them winning this game on the arm of Philip Rivers. Regardless, take the points. We like the Chargers +6 in a game they win 23-20. LOCK IT UP
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