That title just about says it all about this weekend. We're tackling the college and professional football weekend much like an innocent kid on Halloween. All dressed up in a superhero costume that requires tights that will undoubtedly cause significant genital chafing. However, our spirit remains high and optimism for the big score is growing by the minute. That said, lurking there in the back of our minds is the distinct possibility that our day may involve more boxes of raisinettes, coupons for McDonald's shakes and flaming bags of dog shit than value-sized Whatchamacallits, large boxes of Junior Mints and the occasional costume malfunctions for well-endowed women. Thus is the life of the Locksmith.
Five Star Specials:
Oregon @ USC - Line is Oregon -7 - We started this year on an ill-advised rant about how USC would leverage the disrespect/no-bowl card into a successful season in which they sought to annihilate all that came in their path. We drove that bus for about 4 weeks and once we realized that it was careening wildly out of control, we jumped out the rear emergency door. Well, since then, the Trojans have started to show glimpses of that powerhouse potential, causing fans and gamblers alike to take notice. That is the only reason that can explain why a team of Oregon's immense talents is only a TD favorite over USC. We just don't see it. USC, while relatively talented, is awfully thin - especially on defense. That is not a recipe for success against this absurdly unstoppable Ducks offense. Sure Oregon will give up some points but it scores at will. The Ducks know that they are within striking distance to playing in the national championship game and their not going to let the hated Trojans derail them. This will be a fun game to watch but one in which Oregon pulls away for a convincing win. Take the Ducks in Southern Cal. Final score is 59-38. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
West Virginia @ UConn - Line is WVU -6 - A freaky Friday night special. It's hard to believe that we're jumping right back on the Mountaineer bandwagon less than a week after they killed us and embarrassed themselves with a loss at home vs. the challenged Orange of Syracuse. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever won a WVU game that I've wagered on. All that means is that we're due. UConn is a mess - as so vividly illustrated last week in their 26-0 loss at Louisville. They've kicked their QB off the team and their season got labeled "lost" quicker than Pam Anderson's virginity. This is a nice spot for a WVU bounce back. The Big East is still up for grabs and the Mountaineers know they can put the thoughts of Cuse behind them. Look to Noel Devine to run wild. Don't be scared - just lay the points on the road. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Stanford @ Washington - Line is Stanford -7 - We're all over the road favorites this week. We're just not sure how you could go anywhere near Washington with your money following that display they put on last week in Arizona. Sure no team is as bad as they look on a bad day but that was absurd. They were dominated in every single facet of the game. It was the least competitive game I've watched all year. Jake Locker looks like Brett Favre with two bad ankles. Their defense does try to tackle an opposing RB until he's at least 6 yards down the field. It is a total shit show. Sure, this might be a nice week to look for a Huskie bounce back if they were playing a mediocre team. However, Stanford is far from that team. The only reason this line is only 7 is because the game is in Washington. Even that won't be enough to keep the Huskies close to Andy Luck and the Cardinal. This one should be over early. Lay the points. Final score is 31-13. LOCK IT UP
Michigan @ Penn State - Line is Michigan -3 - Another road favorite. Spooky. Yet, Penn State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country for the past few years. There have been few consistent winning angles for the Locks but going anti-PSU has been one of them . Michigan has been out of the limelight for a few weeks so people forget how explosive this offense is. They'll move the ball and score on Penn State. The problem for Michigan is on defense but the Nitzy Lions don't have a dynamic enough offense to take advantage. Look for the Wolverines to return to the headlines for a bit this weekend. Take Michigan. Final score is 31-24. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Auburn @ Ole Miss - Line is Auburn -7 - We're simply too far down the road with Auburn to turn back now. We've been telling everyone - by which we mean Mark Borton - that we love this Auburn team for a long time. Through 8 weeks, they've made us look pretty bright. It hasn't been completely pretty at all times but they've done what they need to do. Now that everyone knows who Cam Newton is, we don't have to scream so loud about this team. We don't think their unbeatable but we definitely don't think that Ole Miss - with their Oregon cast-off QB - is the team to beat them. Everyone loves to say that Ole Miss wins one huge game a year and this must be the one for 2010. We respectfully disagree. Cam will continue to run wild and Auburn stays number 1 for another week. Lay the points. Final score is 34-24. LOCK IT UP
Kentucky @ Mississippi State - Line is Miss St. -6.5 - Our first dog pick of the week. Kentucky might be 4-4 but they hang tough in nearly every game. They just haven't figured out how to finish yet. Rest assured, they'll be in this game late into the fourth quarter. Sure Miss St. is in the Top 25 but the heck has this team beat? The answer would be nobody. You take the points in games you think will be close and this one fits the bill. Final score is 38-35 Mississippi State. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Minnesota - Line is OSU -25.5 - We're not crazy enough to lay 25.5 points on a road team in a Big Ten game unless Purdue is involved. Minnesota might be a mess but they haven't been blown out as much as you'd expect this season. Plus, they do have a nice new stadium that should provide some semblance of a minor home field advantage - if only because the fans would love to see this game be close against the mighty Buckeyes. These conference games - especially in the Big 10 - tend to tighten up as we move through the conference season. We're going to roll the dice and bet the Gophers put forth a game effort this weekend and stay somewhat in this game. Take the points and the home team. Final score is OSU 38-17. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Michigan State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -6.5 - Just like Auburn, we've come too far with this Iowa. Even though our proclamations that they would be a top 5 team at season end have been blown up, we still think this is one of the best teams in the country. We think they're going to relish playing the role of home spoiler against an undefeated conference rival. They have probably the best defensive linemen in the country, one of the best offensive lines, one of the most experienced QBs and a coach looking to erase the memories of an embarrassing clock management blow up from last week. The crowd will be nuts. Iowa will play fast and loose and we think the Spartans blink a bit in this big spot. Give the undefeated team the points, we're sticking with Iowa. Final score is 30-20. LOCK IT UP
Georgia vs. Florida (neutral field) - Line is Georgia -2 - In typical Georgia fashion, they submarined their season with an ugly September and then decided to make a move for a bowl game later in the year. This team is among the hottest in the country, especially on offense. They're throwing up 40 point games with ease. Florida is up and down and certainly a capable opponent. However, this is one of those games the Georgia kids have probably been looking forward to - a chance to bang on a bit of a down Gator team. Momentum carries the day here as Georgia continues to score with ease. Lay the 2 points. Final score is 37-33. LOCK IT UP
TCU @ UNLV - Line is TCU -35 - Here is a huge line for a road team to cover. And you know what? We think they do and still have time to swing by Slots of Fun for a little $1 blackjack Old Vegas style. TCU is a monster on defense. In fact, we're expecting a shutout in this game. All that means is the Horned Frogs need to score 5 TDs and kick one FG. That is imminently doable. Tough to back some a huge road favorite but the Locksmith is afraid of the doing the difficult. Lay those points. Final score is 45-0. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Tulsa @ Notre Dame - Line is ND -9 - Talk about scary - betting ND to cover a spread. At this point in the column, we might have had our brain removed. However, Tulsa is not a good team. If there was ever a time for the Fighting Irish to have a big game and confuse their fans into thinking they might have the pieces in place for a run next year, then this is it. Offense isn't the Irish's issue and they'll score in this game. The question is whether there middle of the pack athletes on D can make some plays. They'll make enough to secure a 10 point victory. This may be the last time we ever support ND so get on board. Lay the points. Final score is 41-31. LOCK IT UP
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