So we have officially witnessed five full weeks of NFL action. We've seen each team play at least four games and have hopefully be able to form accurate opinions of the 32 franchises. Some are better than we expected. Others are worse. Very few are exactly what we thought they would be. Thus is the NFL in 2010. Anyone can beat any one on a day of the week. Most teams don't even remotely resemble the team they were a week ago or the team they'll be in a week. It is a topsy turvy world and we love it.
With all that babble behind us, we finally arrive at our point. With five games under our belt, the Locksmith is prepared to go on an impressive run of prognostication. It starts now:
Five Star Specials:
Jets @ Broncos - Line is Jets -3.5 - We hate to admit these types of things but the Jets are pretty good. We're simply going to sit back and ride their momentum. They are certainly 3.5 points better than the Broncos and their utter lack of a running game. This is the game that brings Kyle Orton back to earth. Take the New Jersey Pets to win and cover. 26-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Chiefs @ Texans - Line is Texans -4.5 - Who is this Houston Texan team? The group that steamrolled Indy opening week or the team that was steamrolled by Big Blue last Sunday? Most likely somewhere in the middle. And we're betting that it is closer to the steamrollee. The Chiefs on the other hand have made a fairly convincing case for who they are. A tough scrappy team with a stubborn defense and a challenged offense. That leads to many close, low scoring games during which a big play by a big play guy (e.g. McCluster, Arenas, Charles, etc.) is the difference. We'll take the known quantity and the points. Bet the Chiefs +4.5. Score is KC 20-17. LOCK IT UP.
Ravens @ Patriots - Line is Patriots -2.5 - This line doesn't make sense to us. Granted the game is in Foxboro but the Ravens might be the most complete team in the NFL. They have an excellent recent track record against the Pats (just look at their meeting in last year's playoffs). I understand that the genius of Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this game but they've also dealt Senor Moss in the meantime. We're highly dubious of New England defense. We like the Ravens to win outright but you get the added advantage of 2.5 points. Final score is Baltimore 38-33. LOCK IT UP
Falcons @ Eagles - Line is Eagles -2 - Atlanta is too complete a team to be an underdog to nearly anyone in the league - certainly not the Eagles. Philly has done nothing against legitimately solid teams yet this year. I see no basis for this line. The Falcons will pound away with Michael Turner and Ryan to White will work its way into the announcers' mouths at least 10 more times. The Hotlanta Defense is tough and will place quite a bit of pressure on Kevin Kolb. We expect the Falcons to win somewhat easily. Take the points. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Browns @ Steelers - Line is Steelers -14 - This is a very interesting game. Everyone thinks Big Douche Bag Ben is going to roll back into the lineup and the Steelers are going to be throwing up 40 points a game. We don't think the transition will be quite so seamless. That said, Cleveland is starting Colt McCoy against the Steelers defense in Pittsburgh. That is not going to go well. Plus the Browns' only legitimate offensive player (Peyton Hillis) is severely banged up. Cleveland is not likely to score a point in this game. That is enough to take Pittsburgh and lay the 2 TDs. Final score is 24-3. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Titans @ Jaguars - Line is Titans -2.5 - Simple analysis: The Jags stink. Don't look at their record or what they did last week to Buffalo. They stink. The Titans do not stink in any aspect of the game. That's worth at least 2.5 points. Take Tennessee and lay the points. Final score is 33-14. LOCK IT UP
Chargers @ Rams - Line is Chargers -9 - How many more games can the Chargers lose due to their inept special teams? That oddity needs to shift at some point, right? How many games can the Chargers lose with Philip Rivers throwing for 400 yards? This can't continue. Many things are working in SD's favor this week. Marcus McNeil returns to the offensive line. Ryan Mathews is another week healthier and ready to break through. The Rams most dangerous receiver is a little white guy named Danny. Do you sense where I am going? The Rams handed the Lions their first win of the year last week and it wasn't even close. We like the Chargers to win and cover the 9. Final score is 34-17. LOCK IT UP
Saints @ Buccaneers - Line is Saints -4.5 - We usually fall all over ourselves trying to bet home underdogs. In this case, we're even more ecstatic. The Saints are not the same team without even a semblance of a threat of a running attack. A defensive minded team like TB will exploit that one-dimensional limitation. Add to that the confidence that Josh Freeman is playing with and this feels like a game that is going down to the final whistle. The Bucs might not win but they'll battle hard. We'll take the home team and the 4.5 points. Final score is 24-23 Saints. LOCK IT UP
Lions @ Giants - Line is Giants -10 - Call us a big old homer, we don't mind. We think Coughlin and his coaching staff have figured something out in the past few weeks and this team is rallying around each other. Eli is continuing his maturation into one of the most dependable QBs in the league and he has a 1-2 receiver set to rival any team in the league. Throw away the Lions blowout of the Rams last week for the aberration that it was. Detroit is improving but not enough to keep this one close in the New Giants Stadium. The G-Men keep on sacking opposing QBs and roll to an easy win. Take NY and give the 10. Final score is 34-14. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Raiders @ Niners - Line is Niners -7 - One of these weeks the Niners will show up and play to their "talent" level. All these Bay Area Niner fans really hope that this is the week. They just can't stomach the possibility of going 0-6 at the hands of their Cross-Bay rivals. However, the Raiders are the more solid team at this point. Not spectacular, not dynamic, but solid. They'll run the ball a bit, throwing it to Zach Miller a bit and let SeaBass drill 50 yard FGs all day long. Their D will be adequate. All this leaves me thinking that making a winless team a 7 point favorite is a really strange thing to do. Take OakTown and the 7 points. Final score is 22-20. LOCK IT UP
Seahawks @ Bears - Line is Bears -6 - The Bears are not that good. Certainly not 4-1 good. However, Julius Peppers is gnarly good. He's dominating games from the defensive side of the ball. Seattle just doesn't have the offense talent are intuition to deal with the Peppers factor. Being at home with a Jay Cutler looking for a big bounce back game to prove he is past his concussion is enough to get Chicago through this one. Take the Windy City Wingnuts and give Seattle the points. Final score is 23-13. LOCK IT UP
Dolphins @ Packers - Line is Packers -3.5 - Like the Saints, Green Bay is another team that is really being hurt by its inability to mount any sore of running game. Add the loss of several key players and the Packers are reeling a bit. Not surprisingly, all the pundits are hot on Miami this week. We're going to play contrarian in this game. Rodgers worked all week to get cleared to play in this game. He's looking to prove something and Greg Jennings is out to show all his fantasy owners that he has not been kidnapped and replaced by Bernard Berrian. The Packers show some home team pride and get a much needed win. The rest of the season might not be so bright but for one day Green Bay is back on top. Take the Pack and lay 3.5. Final score is 27-20. LOCK IT UP
One Star Specials:
Colts @ Redskins - Line is Colts -3 - This is a game of a few contradictions. The Colts have not looked good on the road but Peyton never plays badly in a nationally televised night game. The Colts can't stop run but the Skins have yet to establish their ability to run the ball. When in a situation like this where the answer seems difficult to discern, we always trust in Manning. Take the Colts and give the points. Final score is 30-24. LOCK IT UP
Cowboys @ Vikings - Line is Vikings -2 - Which QB will throw the last game changing interception in this game. That is all you need to know. Our money is on the great sexter, Brett "Cock and Balls" Favre. Take the Boys and the points. Final score is 26-23 Dallas. LOCK IT UP
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