Thursday, November 18, 2010

Thank God There's An NFL Game Tonight - Going Back to College is Killing Me

Four Star Special:

Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins - Line is Dolphins -1.5 - The Locks really likes this game a lot from a gambling perspective.  For one, we see a lot of experts sticking with Miami and we always like it when we differ from the experts.  A few things to consider about tonight's game.  The Dolphins will have a difficult time running either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams against the once again stout Bears D.  Chicago bottled up Adrian Peterson last week and Ronnie/Ricky ain't no ADP.  That means that in order to move the ball, the Fins will need Tyler Thigpen (former late season fantasy hero with the Chiefs) to throw the ball efficiently and effectively.  Considering he's a third-string QB on a team that doesn't even like its first-string QB and considering that this is a short week and he's had very few days to work with the starters, the Locks is not expecting a Montana-esque performance from Thigpen.  In fact, we're not even expecting something Dilfer-esque.  Miami will have trouble scoring unless they do it on defense or special teams.  As for the Bears, the offensive line has been making modest improvements over the beginning of the year when Jay Cutler spent a majority of the time lounging on the ground.  It's amazing how much more effective that prep-school punk look-a-like is when he has some time to throw.  He won't be bringing back memories of Dan Marino tonight either, but he'll be able to move Da Bears down the field.  We think this thing plays out as a low-scoring game but one in which the Bears steal a game on the road.  We'll take the dog and the 1.5 points.  Final score is 20-16, Da Bears.  LOCK IT UP

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