We're a bit late to the game seeing as we didn't profile the Steelers/Titans game on Thursday night but that does not mean the Locks is not incredibly fired up for tomorrow's real NFL opening day. 13 total games to wet your whistle. That's a lot to love whether you're a fantasy freak, a degenerate gambler, a nerd or some combination of all three. The Locks will endeavor to profile/project every NFL game this season (minus this past Thursday nighter). After profiling all the games, the Locks will also propose some nice exotic bets (parlays, teasers, etc) that might be enticing for you those of you who like to swing for the fences with your wagers. Our goal for the '09 season is to hit 63% of the NFL games. Let's see what we can do.
Sunday Early Games:
Miami @ Atlanta - Line is Falcons -4 - We're not too sure what to make of either of these teams. Miami was certainly headed in the right direction last season under the stewardship of Bill Parcells. However, some of their success needs to be attributed to the relative ease of their schedule. The Falcons were one of the league's nicest surprises last season making the most of the additions of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. Now the question becomes what does this year look like for these teams? We can quite honestly see any number of things happening to these two but we think mediocrity is the most likely destination for both. So where does that leave us in Week 1. Matt Ryan vs. Chad Pennington. Michael Turner vs. Ronnie Brown. Roddy White vs. Ted Ginn Jr. Atlanta clearly dominates these high profile positional match ups. Add the modest benefit of playing at home and this certainly feels like an Atlanta win. However, we think the Dolphins will keep this one pretty close throughout. Pennington will flash his typical game management skills and the Parcells influence will continue to be felt on the defensive side of the ball. We've just talked ourselves into taking the points. The correct wager is Miami +4. LOCK IT UP
Kansas City @ Baltimore - Line is Ravens -13 - As of this writing, Matt Cassel remains a question mark for playing. He'd be well advised to take another week to get healthy and not have to stare into Ray Lewis' eyes all afternoon. We have nothing but feelings of scorn when it comes to the Chiefs. Larry Johnson is done (look to Jamaal Charles to be a major force by week 8) and Tony Gonzalez doesn't live there anymore. It's way too early for the Patriots influence to have any measurable impact. Baltimore on the other hand is a team that we can get behind. Sure they've lost some high profile names from the defense but they still have Ray and Ed and that is pretty darn good. Look to Joe Flacco to continue to progress in season two. He's going to be a good one. The Locks is also a huge fan of former Scarlet Lady, Ray Rice. He's going to be fun to watch. This game doesn't feel close at all which is good because 13 is a lot of points to lay in Week 1. It doesn't matter. Baltimore will cover. For those with weak hearts, use the Ravens in some teasers and trim that line down. Take Baltimore -13. LOCK IT UP
Philadelphia @ Carolina - Line is Eagles -2.5 - This is a game that we really like from a gambler's perspective. Philly is a team that we see as a strong favorite to be playing the Super Bowl. McNabb is primed for a big year and the death of Brian Westbrook has been wildly exaggerated. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers D looks suspect and that might be an insult to all you suspects out there. DeAngelo won't find a whole lot of running room in this one. Carolina will need to lean on Jake Delhomme for its offense and we all know how that usually turns out (I just vomited remembering that I drafted Steve Smith in my fantasy league). This one here is what you call easy money. Take the Eagles -2.5. LOCK IT UP
Denver @ Cincinnati - Line is Bengals -5 - Here is the first game of the year to make me regret stating that I would profile all of the season's games. Besides mental case wide receivers, is there really anything interesting to write about either of these teams? Also, when was the last time that the Bengals were a 5 point favorite. That seems a bit aggressive, no? I know there is a lot of love for the Bungals since they became TV stars but come on. However, we have Denver pegged as one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL this season. Choices, choices. As bad as we think Denver is, our rule is to typically take the points when we see a battle of stinkers. We also can't kick off the season looking at a TV during the 4th quarter of this game and wondering what in the hell we were thinking backing Cincy. Take the Broncos +5 in a game I recommend against watching. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Cleveland - Line is Vikings -4 - This is a line that really struck us as odd. Particularly with all of the Favre-mania going on. We wouldn't have been surprised to see this as a -6 or -7 point spread, especially since home field advantage doesn't seem to matter that much anymore (just ask ESPN's Sports Guy). We don't buy Favre one bit but we certainly do buy AP and the Vikings defense. I'm not sure how the Browns are going to score points. All-Day will run wild here and the Vikings will not let Brad Childress cost them this game. Take the Vikings -4. LOCK IT UP
New York Jets @ Houston - Line is Texans -4 - This line has been slowly creeping down all week. We saw it at -5.5 just three days ago. So clearly there is love for the Jets out there. Where not sure why. We definitely think they'll be better under Rex Ryan and with their defensive imports but they are still the Mets of the NFL - we'll just call them the Pets. (Editor's Note: Matt Sanchez is the Locks' backup fantasy QB so we may very well become big bandwagon Pets fans at some point). We're also not buying the crazy Texans hype going into this season. People are talking up this team like mad. I think they're solid but making the playoffs would be a nice achievement for this group. This is another tough call so we'll take the points and hope for the best. Jets +4. LOCK IT UP
Jaguars @ Indianapolis - Line is Colts -6.5 - The Colts always get too much respect from Vegas. The funny thing is they don't earn it because it seems like they never cover. We're sticking with that theme in this one. The Colts will do enough to win but not enough to win by a TD. Look for this to be a grind-it-out, time of possession type of game that Peyton usually orchestrates. The pick here is Jags +6.5. LOCK IT UP
Detroit @ New Orleans - Line is Saints -13.5 - Jeez, another huge spread for a week 1 game. Don't worry, we'd take the Saints in this one even if the line was -20. This will not be close. The Lions can't stop anyone and Drew Brees and boys cannot be stopped. The Lions will do nothing offensively. Remember, this team has not won a game since 2007. Matt Stafford ain't changing that tomorrow. Take the Saints -13.5. LOCK IT UP
Dallas @ Tampa Bay - Line is Cowboys -5 - This feels like another line that is not necessarily correct. The Cowboys may have a number of questions marks (Roy Williams, Marion Barber, etc.) but the Bucs are downright putrid. They may lose 13 games this season. They are starting Bill Cosby at QB and some of their defenders are in their 50s. This is not going to end well for TB. It's not going to start well either. The Cowboys get to open their new mega stadium with a 1-0 record. Take the Boys -5. LOCK IT UP
Sunday Afternoon Games:
San Francisco @ Arizona - Line is Cardinals -6 - I can't get over how many dogs I am taking this week. Chalk up another one. The Cardinals are in for a long year. They caught lightning in a bottle last year and it was a great story. However, this is a new year and the odds of Kurt Warner staying among the living for another four months are not good. On the other end of the spectrum are the upstart Niners who are an entirely different team with Mike Singletary at the helm. Frank Gore and Glen Coffee are going to prove to be the league's next dynamic RB duo and Shaun Hill will do enough not to lose SF games. We think this all starts tomorrow in a game we like the 49ers to win outright. However, we'll happily just take the points. The pick is the Niners +6. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ NY Giants - Line is Giants -7 - Back up the truck for another dog and this one is tough based on our Giant fanaticism. However, with nobody to catch the ball and the Skins sporting an improved defensive front, we can't imagine this being a game the G-Man win by a TD. It feels much more like a FG win for Big Blue. The Skins will grind up some yardage and clock on the backs of Portis and Betts and their D will play admirably. At the end of the day it won't be enough to get them a win but it will help them bust the spread. Take the Redskins +7. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Seattle - Line is Seahawks -7.5 - We're expecting big things from the Seahawks this year. They play in a horrific division and finally have a relatively healthy Matt Hasselback throwing the ball. The Housh significantly upgrades their receiving corp and Seattle remains one of the truly powerful home field advantages in the league. We think the Rams are slowly heading in the right direction but they are challenged in so many ways at the moment. They'll be lucky to keep this one close in the second half. We like the Seahawks -7.5 to cover. LOCK IT UP
Sunday Evening Game:
Chicago @ Green Bay - Line is Packers -4.5 -Here is another line that has been moving during the week - sliding to show support for the Packers. We're going to have to disagree with the general public on this one. While the Pack looks like their back and just in time to shove it up Brett Farve's ass, the Bears also look to be incredibly improved. We love Matt Forte and this is a big-time rivalry game in prime time. No way this is decided by more than a FG. This should be a really fun game to watch. Our pick is the Bears +4.5. LOCK IT UP
Monday Night Games:
Buffalo @ New England - Line is Patriots -11 - Note to league: the Patriots offense is back and looking to punish people. The Bills will get a first-hand demonstration of this on Monday night. It certainly doesn't help that Marshawn Lynch is suspended and TO is TO. It will be interesting to see what the NE defense can do this year but that offense is going to be silly good. This feels like another one-sided game. Take the Patriots -11. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Oakland - Line is Chargers -9.5 - Nice to cap off week 1 with another blowout. The Raiders are such a mess that players need several days to cope emotionally when they get traded to Oakland. That is not a joke. Poor Richard Seymour. Can you blame him? The Chargers love to throttle the Raiders and they'll do it again. LT reminds people that he is not done and Philip Rivers continues to grow into one of the leagues best QBs. This one is easy. Take the Chargers -9.5. LOCK IT UP
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