College football delivered yet another day of unpredictable action with little rhyme or reason to who showed up to play (Iowa, Auburn, Stanford, Syracuse) and who didn't (Michigan State, Missouri, Clemson and Miami). That is the Locksmith's way of establishing an alibi for a potentially mediocre day of prognostication. Well no excuse will be needed come this time tomorrow, we're ready for our best day of predicting professional pigskin.
Five Star Special:
Miami @ Cincinnati - Line is Dolphins +1 - Is this line correct? I can seem to understand it. The Dolphins are a very solid football team and have yet to lose on the road. The Bengals have proven nothing yet this year other than the fact that they are not very good, Carson Palmer is no longer a decent NFL QB and their WRs can't back up all their talk. Getting points here feels like a real treat. Miami will win this game. Final score is 23-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Pittsburgh @ New Orleans - Line is Saints -1 - This is a complete gut pick. We think the Saints are due and we think it's going to be a big time game (i.e. nationally televised night game against a top 3 team) in which they make a statement. Pittsburgh's been catching a number of breaks and that tends to even out. The Superdome will be a tough place for the Steelers and Halloween in the Big Easy only makes that more of a troubling situation. This game will be close but we expect an ill-advised Big Ben pick or two to be the difference. The Saints win 27-23. LOCK IT UP
Green Bay @ New York Jets - Line is Jets -6.5 - We can't believe that we're driving this Pets' gravy train but you just can't argue with success - especially when it equates to gambling winnings. The Jets have had a week to prepare for a banged up Green Bay team that just had to play their butts off to barely beat an underachieving Vikings team at home. Revis Island appears to be inhabited again this week so say goodbye to Greg Jennings. Without him, who the heck will Rodgers throw to? This one is not shaping up well for the Pack. Look for a pretty convincing Jets' win. Final score is 24-10. LOCK IT UP
Carolina @ St. Louis - Line is Rams -2 - Can you believe that the Rams are favorites in games these days? More importantly, can you believe we're picking them to cover as a favorite as a four star special? Well we are. The Panthers are banged up. Steve Smith ain't himself and DeAngelo Williams is likely a no-go this week. The Rams D is solid, as is Steven Jackson. We all have to start getting used to some convincing Rams' victories. Final score is 23-14. LOCK IT UP
Denver vs San Francisco (in London) - Line is 49ers -2.5 - How can these 49ers possibly be favored in any game at this point. That is all that we have to write about this one. Too bad the good folks of England need to see this game. Take the Broncos and the points. Denver wins 25-23. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Washington @ Detroit - Line is Lions -2.5 - Now the Lions are favorites too? That's just too much for us. We'd like to see Matthew Stafford play an entire game before we give this offense our blessing. What we do know is that the Lions' defense isn't very good. And you have to give it to those Skins. They are somehow figuring out how to win games week in and week out. It's rarely pretty but shockingly effective. We'll take the points here. Skins win outright 16-13. LOCK IT UP
Buffalo @ Kansas City - Line is Chiefs -7 - It must be Halloween if the Chiefs are also favorites. Actually, this team is very much for real. And the Bills are atrocious. Don't be fooled by all the Ryan Fitzpatrick hype. The Bills stink. The Chiefs will run all over them. The home crowd will demoralize the Bills. Nothing will work for them. Final score is 33-17. LOCK IT UP
Jacksonville @ Dallas - Line is Cowboys -6.5 - It is now or never for the Cowboys. Fortunately the Jaguars are coming to town. Dallas is due for one solid performance at some point. They just can't keep playing this badly. The John Kitna era gets off to a fast start. Final score is 31-17. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ Indianapolis - Line is Colts -4.5 - This is a payback game if there ever was one. The Colts, especially their defense, remembers what Arian Foster did to them in Week 1. Don't expect a repeat. Plus Peyton Manning on Monday night is just too much of a good bet. Lay the points as the Colts treat the Texans fairly rudely. Final score is 38-28. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Seattle @ Oakland - Line is Raiders -2.5 - Oakland is getting better, no argument here. However, in typical Raider fashion, they will find a way to demoralize fans after building them up with last week's demolition of Denver. The Seahawks are showing some spunk under Pete Carroll. We like a Seahawk win on the road. Final score is 24-20. LOCK IT UP
Tennessee @ San Diego - Line is Chargers -4.5 - Somehow what we originally wrote about this game got erased. It was something along the lines of the Chargers being due. That they can't keep leading the NFL in total offense and total defense but not win games. Tennessee is good but they're getting too much love these days which is the kiss of death. For one week at least, the Chargers will look like a legitimate team. They'll cover. Final score is 31-23. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ New England - Line is Patriots -4.5 - Just like it is now or never for the Cowboys, it is now or never for the Vikings. The Patriots win close games but that doesn't mean they'll cover. Their offense is just not as dynamic with Senor Moss. We think ADP runs over enough Pats to keep this close. Take the points. Final score is 23-21. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Tampa Bay @ Arizona - Lines is Cardinals -3.5 - If Tampa Bay is really one of the best teams in the NFC - which their coach seems to believe - this is a game they need to win. We all know that the Cardinals are much tougher at home but let's not forget that Max Hall is their QB. Josh Freeman is a winner and the Tampa D should be able to keep the Cards in check. We'll take the 3.5 points and roll with Freeman. Final score is 20-17. LOCK IT UP
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Friday, October 29, 2010
In the Immortal Words of Matt "The Kid" Rhoades: "Trick or Treat Motherf****er"
That title just about says it all about this weekend. We're tackling the college and professional football weekend much like an innocent kid on Halloween. All dressed up in a superhero costume that requires tights that will undoubtedly cause significant genital chafing. However, our spirit remains high and optimism for the big score is growing by the minute. That said, lurking there in the back of our minds is the distinct possibility that our day may involve more boxes of raisinettes, coupons for McDonald's shakes and flaming bags of dog shit than value-sized Whatchamacallits, large boxes of Junior Mints and the occasional costume malfunctions for well-endowed women. Thus is the life of the Locksmith.
Five Star Specials:
Oregon @ USC - Line is Oregon -7 - We started this year on an ill-advised rant about how USC would leverage the disrespect/no-bowl card into a successful season in which they sought to annihilate all that came in their path. We drove that bus for about 4 weeks and once we realized that it was careening wildly out of control, we jumped out the rear emergency door. Well, since then, the Trojans have started to show glimpses of that powerhouse potential, causing fans and gamblers alike to take notice. That is the only reason that can explain why a team of Oregon's immense talents is only a TD favorite over USC. We just don't see it. USC, while relatively talented, is awfully thin - especially on defense. That is not a recipe for success against this absurdly unstoppable Ducks offense. Sure Oregon will give up some points but it scores at will. The Ducks know that they are within striking distance to playing in the national championship game and their not going to let the hated Trojans derail them. This will be a fun game to watch but one in which Oregon pulls away for a convincing win. Take the Ducks in Southern Cal. Final score is 59-38. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
West Virginia @ UConn - Line is WVU -6 - A freaky Friday night special. It's hard to believe that we're jumping right back on the Mountaineer bandwagon less than a week after they killed us and embarrassed themselves with a loss at home vs. the challenged Orange of Syracuse. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever won a WVU game that I've wagered on. All that means is that we're due. UConn is a mess - as so vividly illustrated last week in their 26-0 loss at Louisville. They've kicked their QB off the team and their season got labeled "lost" quicker than Pam Anderson's virginity. This is a nice spot for a WVU bounce back. The Big East is still up for grabs and the Mountaineers know they can put the thoughts of Cuse behind them. Look to Noel Devine to run wild. Don't be scared - just lay the points on the road. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Stanford @ Washington - Line is Stanford -7 - We're all over the road favorites this week. We're just not sure how you could go anywhere near Washington with your money following that display they put on last week in Arizona. Sure no team is as bad as they look on a bad day but that was absurd. They were dominated in every single facet of the game. It was the least competitive game I've watched all year. Jake Locker looks like Brett Favre with two bad ankles. Their defense does try to tackle an opposing RB until he's at least 6 yards down the field. It is a total shit show. Sure, this might be a nice week to look for a Huskie bounce back if they were playing a mediocre team. However, Stanford is far from that team. The only reason this line is only 7 is because the game is in Washington. Even that won't be enough to keep the Huskies close to Andy Luck and the Cardinal. This one should be over early. Lay the points. Final score is 31-13. LOCK IT UP
Michigan @ Penn State - Line is Michigan -3 - Another road favorite. Spooky. Yet, Penn State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country for the past few years. There have been few consistent winning angles for the Locks but going anti-PSU has been one of them . Michigan has been out of the limelight for a few weeks so people forget how explosive this offense is. They'll move the ball and score on Penn State. The problem for Michigan is on defense but the Nitzy Lions don't have a dynamic enough offense to take advantage. Look for the Wolverines to return to the headlines for a bit this weekend. Take Michigan. Final score is 31-24. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Auburn @ Ole Miss - Line is Auburn -7 - We're simply too far down the road with Auburn to turn back now. We've been telling everyone - by which we mean Mark Borton - that we love this Auburn team for a long time. Through 8 weeks, they've made us look pretty bright. It hasn't been completely pretty at all times but they've done what they need to do. Now that everyone knows who Cam Newton is, we don't have to scream so loud about this team. We don't think their unbeatable but we definitely don't think that Ole Miss - with their Oregon cast-off QB - is the team to beat them. Everyone loves to say that Ole Miss wins one huge game a year and this must be the one for 2010. We respectfully disagree. Cam will continue to run wild and Auburn stays number 1 for another week. Lay the points. Final score is 34-24. LOCK IT UP
Kentucky @ Mississippi State - Line is Miss St. -6.5 - Our first dog pick of the week. Kentucky might be 4-4 but they hang tough in nearly every game. They just haven't figured out how to finish yet. Rest assured, they'll be in this game late into the fourth quarter. Sure Miss St. is in the Top 25 but the heck has this team beat? The answer would be nobody. You take the points in games you think will be close and this one fits the bill. Final score is 38-35 Mississippi State. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Minnesota - Line is OSU -25.5 - We're not crazy enough to lay 25.5 points on a road team in a Big Ten game unless Purdue is involved. Minnesota might be a mess but they haven't been blown out as much as you'd expect this season. Plus, they do have a nice new stadium that should provide some semblance of a minor home field advantage - if only because the fans would love to see this game be close against the mighty Buckeyes. These conference games - especially in the Big 10 - tend to tighten up as we move through the conference season. We're going to roll the dice and bet the Gophers put forth a game effort this weekend and stay somewhat in this game. Take the points and the home team. Final score is OSU 38-17. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Michigan State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -6.5 - Just like Auburn, we've come too far with this Iowa. Even though our proclamations that they would be a top 5 team at season end have been blown up, we still think this is one of the best teams in the country. We think they're going to relish playing the role of home spoiler against an undefeated conference rival. They have probably the best defensive linemen in the country, one of the best offensive lines, one of the most experienced QBs and a coach looking to erase the memories of an embarrassing clock management blow up from last week. The crowd will be nuts. Iowa will play fast and loose and we think the Spartans blink a bit in this big spot. Give the undefeated team the points, we're sticking with Iowa. Final score is 30-20. LOCK IT UP
Georgia vs. Florida (neutral field) - Line is Georgia -2 - In typical Georgia fashion, they submarined their season with an ugly September and then decided to make a move for a bowl game later in the year. This team is among the hottest in the country, especially on offense. They're throwing up 40 point games with ease. Florida is up and down and certainly a capable opponent. However, this is one of those games the Georgia kids have probably been looking forward to - a chance to bang on a bit of a down Gator team. Momentum carries the day here as Georgia continues to score with ease. Lay the 2 points. Final score is 37-33. LOCK IT UP
TCU @ UNLV - Line is TCU -35 - Here is a huge line for a road team to cover. And you know what? We think they do and still have time to swing by Slots of Fun for a little $1 blackjack Old Vegas style. TCU is a monster on defense. In fact, we're expecting a shutout in this game. All that means is the Horned Frogs need to score 5 TDs and kick one FG. That is imminently doable. Tough to back some a huge road favorite but the Locksmith is afraid of the doing the difficult. Lay those points. Final score is 45-0. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Tulsa @ Notre Dame - Line is ND -9 - Talk about scary - betting ND to cover a spread. At this point in the column, we might have had our brain removed. However, Tulsa is not a good team. If there was ever a time for the Fighting Irish to have a big game and confuse their fans into thinking they might have the pieces in place for a run next year, then this is it. Offense isn't the Irish's issue and they'll score in this game. The question is whether there middle of the pack athletes on D can make some plays. They'll make enough to secure a 10 point victory. This may be the last time we ever support ND so get on board. Lay the points. Final score is 41-31. LOCK IT UP
Five Star Specials:
Oregon @ USC - Line is Oregon -7 - We started this year on an ill-advised rant about how USC would leverage the disrespect/no-bowl card into a successful season in which they sought to annihilate all that came in their path. We drove that bus for about 4 weeks and once we realized that it was careening wildly out of control, we jumped out the rear emergency door. Well, since then, the Trojans have started to show glimpses of that powerhouse potential, causing fans and gamblers alike to take notice. That is the only reason that can explain why a team of Oregon's immense talents is only a TD favorite over USC. We just don't see it. USC, while relatively talented, is awfully thin - especially on defense. That is not a recipe for success against this absurdly unstoppable Ducks offense. Sure Oregon will give up some points but it scores at will. The Ducks know that they are within striking distance to playing in the national championship game and their not going to let the hated Trojans derail them. This will be a fun game to watch but one in which Oregon pulls away for a convincing win. Take the Ducks in Southern Cal. Final score is 59-38. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
West Virginia @ UConn - Line is WVU -6 - A freaky Friday night special. It's hard to believe that we're jumping right back on the Mountaineer bandwagon less than a week after they killed us and embarrassed themselves with a loss at home vs. the challenged Orange of Syracuse. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever won a WVU game that I've wagered on. All that means is that we're due. UConn is a mess - as so vividly illustrated last week in their 26-0 loss at Louisville. They've kicked their QB off the team and their season got labeled "lost" quicker than Pam Anderson's virginity. This is a nice spot for a WVU bounce back. The Big East is still up for grabs and the Mountaineers know they can put the thoughts of Cuse behind them. Look to Noel Devine to run wild. Don't be scared - just lay the points on the road. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Stanford @ Washington - Line is Stanford -7 - We're all over the road favorites this week. We're just not sure how you could go anywhere near Washington with your money following that display they put on last week in Arizona. Sure no team is as bad as they look on a bad day but that was absurd. They were dominated in every single facet of the game. It was the least competitive game I've watched all year. Jake Locker looks like Brett Favre with two bad ankles. Their defense does try to tackle an opposing RB until he's at least 6 yards down the field. It is a total shit show. Sure, this might be a nice week to look for a Huskie bounce back if they were playing a mediocre team. However, Stanford is far from that team. The only reason this line is only 7 is because the game is in Washington. Even that won't be enough to keep the Huskies close to Andy Luck and the Cardinal. This one should be over early. Lay the points. Final score is 31-13. LOCK IT UP
Michigan @ Penn State - Line is Michigan -3 - Another road favorite. Spooky. Yet, Penn State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country for the past few years. There have been few consistent winning angles for the Locks but going anti-PSU has been one of them . Michigan has been out of the limelight for a few weeks so people forget how explosive this offense is. They'll move the ball and score on Penn State. The problem for Michigan is on defense but the Nitzy Lions don't have a dynamic enough offense to take advantage. Look for the Wolverines to return to the headlines for a bit this weekend. Take Michigan. Final score is 31-24. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Auburn @ Ole Miss - Line is Auburn -7 - We're simply too far down the road with Auburn to turn back now. We've been telling everyone - by which we mean Mark Borton - that we love this Auburn team for a long time. Through 8 weeks, they've made us look pretty bright. It hasn't been completely pretty at all times but they've done what they need to do. Now that everyone knows who Cam Newton is, we don't have to scream so loud about this team. We don't think their unbeatable but we definitely don't think that Ole Miss - with their Oregon cast-off QB - is the team to beat them. Everyone loves to say that Ole Miss wins one huge game a year and this must be the one for 2010. We respectfully disagree. Cam will continue to run wild and Auburn stays number 1 for another week. Lay the points. Final score is 34-24. LOCK IT UP
Kentucky @ Mississippi State - Line is Miss St. -6.5 - Our first dog pick of the week. Kentucky might be 4-4 but they hang tough in nearly every game. They just haven't figured out how to finish yet. Rest assured, they'll be in this game late into the fourth quarter. Sure Miss St. is in the Top 25 but the heck has this team beat? The answer would be nobody. You take the points in games you think will be close and this one fits the bill. Final score is 38-35 Mississippi State. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Minnesota - Line is OSU -25.5 - We're not crazy enough to lay 25.5 points on a road team in a Big Ten game unless Purdue is involved. Minnesota might be a mess but they haven't been blown out as much as you'd expect this season. Plus, they do have a nice new stadium that should provide some semblance of a minor home field advantage - if only because the fans would love to see this game be close against the mighty Buckeyes. These conference games - especially in the Big 10 - tend to tighten up as we move through the conference season. We're going to roll the dice and bet the Gophers put forth a game effort this weekend and stay somewhat in this game. Take the points and the home team. Final score is OSU 38-17. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Michigan State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -6.5 - Just like Auburn, we've come too far with this Iowa. Even though our proclamations that they would be a top 5 team at season end have been blown up, we still think this is one of the best teams in the country. We think they're going to relish playing the role of home spoiler against an undefeated conference rival. They have probably the best defensive linemen in the country, one of the best offensive lines, one of the most experienced QBs and a coach looking to erase the memories of an embarrassing clock management blow up from last week. The crowd will be nuts. Iowa will play fast and loose and we think the Spartans blink a bit in this big spot. Give the undefeated team the points, we're sticking with Iowa. Final score is 30-20. LOCK IT UP
Georgia vs. Florida (neutral field) - Line is Georgia -2 - In typical Georgia fashion, they submarined their season with an ugly September and then decided to make a move for a bowl game later in the year. This team is among the hottest in the country, especially on offense. They're throwing up 40 point games with ease. Florida is up and down and certainly a capable opponent. However, this is one of those games the Georgia kids have probably been looking forward to - a chance to bang on a bit of a down Gator team. Momentum carries the day here as Georgia continues to score with ease. Lay the 2 points. Final score is 37-33. LOCK IT UP
TCU @ UNLV - Line is TCU -35 - Here is a huge line for a road team to cover. And you know what? We think they do and still have time to swing by Slots of Fun for a little $1 blackjack Old Vegas style. TCU is a monster on defense. In fact, we're expecting a shutout in this game. All that means is the Horned Frogs need to score 5 TDs and kick one FG. That is imminently doable. Tough to back some a huge road favorite but the Locksmith is afraid of the doing the difficult. Lay those points. Final score is 45-0. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Tulsa @ Notre Dame - Line is ND -9 - Talk about scary - betting ND to cover a spread. At this point in the column, we might have had our brain removed. However, Tulsa is not a good team. If there was ever a time for the Fighting Irish to have a big game and confuse their fans into thinking they might have the pieces in place for a run next year, then this is it. Offense isn't the Irish's issue and they'll score in this game. The question is whether there middle of the pack athletes on D can make some plays. They'll make enough to secure a 10 point victory. This may be the last time we ever support ND so get on board. Lay the points. Final score is 41-31. LOCK IT UP
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Thursday Night - Rule #1 Need Not Apply
Can you believe that 103 bets into the NFL season and 69 (yes, 69) into the college season and the Locks is exactly at .500 in both categories. 33-33-3 in college and 50-50-3 in the pros. That is just ridiculous for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that we could have saved a ton of time and simply flipped a coin during the past two months. Oh well. Upward and onward.
In a week that saw us heartily back the Theorem and get rewarded with a shit sandwich, we're going to take an opportunity to poo-poo good old Rule #1 (take home dogs on Thursday night ESPN games). Yup, we're upside and turned around. The things that used to make so much sense just don't compute any longer. It's time to adapt. Zig instead of zag. Work the flip-flop.
Three Star Special:
Florida State @ North Carolina State - Line is FSU -4 - There are two key considerations that are steering us toward the Seminoles tonight. (1) Christian Ponder, who has been uncharacteristically up and down this season, had a bye week last week to get his mechanics in order. Apparently he's now throwing the ball better than Jimbo Fisher has ever seen. Ponder is the type of QB talent that can decimate a defense all on his own - especially one as questionable as the Wolfpack's. (2) Florida State leads the country in sacks - and its not close. The Seminoles have 30 and no other team is within 5 of them. When you can control the line of scrimmage in that fashion and force a somewhat mistake prone QB to make quick decisions, you have a significant advantage. QB pressure has been such a disruptive force in so many college games this season that you might be well advised to always bet on the team with the better pass rush. We know that the NC State will have the home crowd in its favor - we've tooted that horn enough this year. However, if they can't move the ball on offense because FSU is in the backfield, and if they can't slow down Ponder and his speedy receivers, there isn't going to be much to cheer about. We like Florida State to control this game throughout. Lay the points. Final score is FSU 37-23. LOCK IT UP
In a week that saw us heartily back the Theorem and get rewarded with a shit sandwich, we're going to take an opportunity to poo-poo good old Rule #1 (take home dogs on Thursday night ESPN games). Yup, we're upside and turned around. The things that used to make so much sense just don't compute any longer. It's time to adapt. Zig instead of zag. Work the flip-flop.
Three Star Special:
Florida State @ North Carolina State - Line is FSU -4 - There are two key considerations that are steering us toward the Seminoles tonight. (1) Christian Ponder, who has been uncharacteristically up and down this season, had a bye week last week to get his mechanics in order. Apparently he's now throwing the ball better than Jimbo Fisher has ever seen. Ponder is the type of QB talent that can decimate a defense all on his own - especially one as questionable as the Wolfpack's. (2) Florida State leads the country in sacks - and its not close. The Seminoles have 30 and no other team is within 5 of them. When you can control the line of scrimmage in that fashion and force a somewhat mistake prone QB to make quick decisions, you have a significant advantage. QB pressure has been such a disruptive force in so many college games this season that you might be well advised to always bet on the team with the better pass rush. We know that the NC State will have the home crowd in its favor - we've tooted that horn enough this year. However, if they can't move the ball on offense because FSU is in the backfield, and if they can't slow down Ponder and his speedy receivers, there isn't going to be much to cheer about. We like Florida State to control this game throughout. Lay the points. Final score is FSU 37-23. LOCK IT UP
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Tuesday Evening Mathematics Lesson: Trust In Thy Theorem
Oh boy. We're getting closer to that time of year when we'll have a college football game on almost every night of the week. That, my friends, is good news. And to get us ready for that tsunami of action, we have a Tuesday night tease that gets the Locks fired up. Not only do we get to watch some pigskin tonight, we get to put the Boise State Theorem through the paces and compile additional data to support or refute its underlying hypothesis. Throw in an isosceles triangle, a corollary of the law of cosines and a limp-wristed javelin throwing style and we are in nerd heaven.
Five Star Special:
Louisiana Tech @ Boise State - Line is Boise State -38 - There will be no disproving the Theorem this evening. In fact, this is the quintessential Theorem setup. The required proofs for demonstrating the foundation for the Theorem are all at work in abundance this evening. Let us review:
Five Star Special:
Louisiana Tech @ Boise State - Line is Boise State -38 - There will be no disproving the Theorem this evening. In fact, this is the quintessential Theorem setup. The required proofs for demonstrating the foundation for the Theorem are all at work in abundance this evening. Let us review:
- A nationally televised game providing the stage for Boise to make its case to all college football fans and voters without other distractions.
- A week featuring another BCS poll that has slapped the Broncos in the face. First it was Oklahoma leap-frogging Boise in the BCS rankings for no good reason (how did that work out for you Sooners?) and now Auburn. Boise got hit with disrespect card on the river and the whole world witnessed that bad beat.
- A woefully inferior opponent who is still trying to figure out how it is in the same conference as Boise State. How do you travel from Louisiana all the way to Idaho without ever leaving your conference? The level of resistance provided by La Tech tonight will be roughly on par with an effort by Brett Favre to avoid the spotlight.
- The Blue Turf. This game is being played in Boise. That is never good for the opponent or the point spread.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
NFL - Week 7
Nothing but picks:
Five Stars Special:
Ravens -13
Four Star Specials:
Steelers -3
Eagles +2.5
Redskins +3
Giants +3.5
Three Star Specials:
Browns +13
Falcons -3.5
Panthers +3
Broncos -7.5
Two Star Specials:
Jaguars +9.5
Chargers -2
Rams +3
Vikings +3
One Star Special:
Seahawks -7
Five Stars Special:
Ravens -13
Four Star Specials:
Steelers -3
Eagles +2.5
Redskins +3
Giants +3.5
Three Star Specials:
Browns +13
Falcons -3.5
Panthers +3
Broncos -7.5
Two Star Specials:
Jaguars +9.5
Chargers -2
Rams +3
Vikings +3
One Star Special:
Seahawks -7
Friday, October 22, 2010
College - Quick Hitters, Quick Coin
We've got a head cold that is impacting our ability to write long, flowing prose but having no negative impact on selecting winners from the realm of college football. That means we're going with some quick hitters for tomorrow's Big Man on Campus action. Enjoy:
Five Star Special:
West Virginia -13.5 vs. Syracuse - The Mountaineers own the Cuse, especially in Morgantown. WVU has an imposing defense and can run the ball. The Cuse is in a world of trouble. If they played this game earlier in the year (pre-mini Cuse run over bad teams), the line would be closer to 24. West Virginia will put a beating on the Orange. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Nebraska -6 @ Oklahoma St - A home dog we can stay away from. The Cowboys have an impressive offense and are undefeated. However, their defense is suspect (more than 27 points per game). They have yet to face a defense like Nebraska's - in fact they don't have any impressive wins yet this year. The Cornhuskers are going to be looking to exact major revenge for last week's loss. Look out OSU. Huskers roll big. LOCK IT UP
TCU -18 vs. Air Force - Since we don't have Boise State this week to scream "Theorem" about, we're going to lend the theorem to TCU. They need style points via blowouts as well. The poor military plane flyers come to town and get Private Piled. Take TCU and give the points. This won't be close. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Iowa -6.5 vs. Wisconsin - You know we love the Hawkeyes but this is a tough number to swallow. Fresh off knocking off #1, the Badgers are getting almost a TD. We can't turn our backs on Iowa now and this could have the makings a minor letdown for Wisconsin. Iowa will be top 5 by bowl season. LOCK IT UP
Louisville -3 vs. Connecticut - UConn just kicked their starting QB off the team. Starting a redshirt freshman tomorrow. Louisville is pretty solid and at home. The Huskies are a disaster in so many ways. LOCK IT UP
Michigan State -6 @ Northwestern - We're finally flipping our perspective on Northwestern. They were magical at busting the spread last year. This year, they've burned us one too many times. Plus, the Spartans are playing some of the best football in the country. Going on the road in the Big 10 is never easy, but we like MSU to cover. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Missouri +3 vs. Oklahoma - Can't stay away from the home dog in a nationally televised night game. This is the biggest football game at Missouri in years and years and years. The crowd is going to be in a frenzy and the Sooners are not worthy of their current ranking. Missou wins this one outright. LOCK IT UP
Auburn -6 vs. LSU - This is a carbon copy of the Iowa game for us. We've been pumping Auburn all year and can't stop now, even if the spread scares us a bit. The magic for the maniacal Les Miles has to end at some point. Plus, LSU just can't score. Home field is going to be huge here but not as huge as Auburn's huge QB. The Tigers (the ones from Auburn) make a statement with this win and firmly entrench themselves in the BCS discussion. The other Tigers slink home to the swamp wondering how they got this far with George Jefferson at QB, LOCK IT UP
North Carolina +6.5 @ Miami - UNC is coming around after a disastrous start to the season. Miami is way too up and down to command this line against a streaking team. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Washington +6.5 @ Arizona - Zona just lost starting QB Nick Foles for this game. He's been a huge force in their early season success. There is going to be some fall off to their backup. Washington is up and down and frustrating. But they're talented too with one of the premier QBs in the West. This is just too many points. Who knows who wins but we know its close. Take the points. LOCK IT UP
Five Star Special:
West Virginia -13.5 vs. Syracuse - The Mountaineers own the Cuse, especially in Morgantown. WVU has an imposing defense and can run the ball. The Cuse is in a world of trouble. If they played this game earlier in the year (pre-mini Cuse run over bad teams), the line would be closer to 24. West Virginia will put a beating on the Orange. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Nebraska -6 @ Oklahoma St - A home dog we can stay away from. The Cowboys have an impressive offense and are undefeated. However, their defense is suspect (more than 27 points per game). They have yet to face a defense like Nebraska's - in fact they don't have any impressive wins yet this year. The Cornhuskers are going to be looking to exact major revenge for last week's loss. Look out OSU. Huskers roll big. LOCK IT UP
TCU -18 vs. Air Force - Since we don't have Boise State this week to scream "Theorem" about, we're going to lend the theorem to TCU. They need style points via blowouts as well. The poor military plane flyers come to town and get Private Piled. Take TCU and give the points. This won't be close. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Iowa -6.5 vs. Wisconsin - You know we love the Hawkeyes but this is a tough number to swallow. Fresh off knocking off #1, the Badgers are getting almost a TD. We can't turn our backs on Iowa now and this could have the makings a minor letdown for Wisconsin. Iowa will be top 5 by bowl season. LOCK IT UP
Louisville -3 vs. Connecticut - UConn just kicked their starting QB off the team. Starting a redshirt freshman tomorrow. Louisville is pretty solid and at home. The Huskies are a disaster in so many ways. LOCK IT UP
Michigan State -6 @ Northwestern - We're finally flipping our perspective on Northwestern. They were magical at busting the spread last year. This year, they've burned us one too many times. Plus, the Spartans are playing some of the best football in the country. Going on the road in the Big 10 is never easy, but we like MSU to cover. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Missouri +3 vs. Oklahoma - Can't stay away from the home dog in a nationally televised night game. This is the biggest football game at Missouri in years and years and years. The crowd is going to be in a frenzy and the Sooners are not worthy of their current ranking. Missou wins this one outright. LOCK IT UP
Auburn -6 vs. LSU - This is a carbon copy of the Iowa game for us. We've been pumping Auburn all year and can't stop now, even if the spread scares us a bit. The magic for the maniacal Les Miles has to end at some point. Plus, LSU just can't score. Home field is going to be huge here but not as huge as Auburn's huge QB. The Tigers (the ones from Auburn) make a statement with this win and firmly entrench themselves in the BCS discussion. The other Tigers slink home to the swamp wondering how they got this far with George Jefferson at QB, LOCK IT UP
North Carolina +6.5 @ Miami - UNC is coming around after a disastrous start to the season. Miami is way too up and down to command this line against a streaking team. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Washington +6.5 @ Arizona - Zona just lost starting QB Nick Foles for this game. He's been a huge force in their early season success. There is going to be some fall off to their backup. Washington is up and down and frustrating. But they're talented too with one of the premier QBs in the West. This is just too many points. Who knows who wins but we know its close. Take the points. LOCK IT UP
Monday, October 18, 2010
A Non-Gambling Plea
The Locksmith is no fan of Joe Girardi. He never has been but his dismay in the manager's apparent lack of ability to manage has reached a fever pitch over the past few months. This is now only further enhanced by the recent spate of articles claiming Girardi a genius for intentionally not winning the American League East. Those writers should forfeit their number 2 pencils post-haste.
The latest Girardi debacles have centered around his unwillingness to put any base runners in motion during the first two games of the Yanks-Rangers series. In Game 1, when runs were tough to come by and post-season newbie CJ Wilson was ripe for some distraction, the two fastest Yankees both got on base in each of their first two plate appearances. Granderson on first with Gardner up - not even a throw drawn to first base. Gardner walks and moves Grandy up to second - again, no movement. Two innings later. Granderson on first - not a throw to first. Gardner grounds into a force out. Now Gardner on first with Jeter up - no movement. Jeter rolls into DP. Game 2 provided similar options with the same potential benefit of rattling an average pitcher in one of his most meaningful career starts. Opportunity missed. This lack of a running game is maddening on its own - but when juxtaposed with the Rangers stealing bases and runs at will - just ask Elvis Andrus - it is excruciating to watch.
Game three and the rest of the series provides Girardi the opportunity to make a ballsy move and enhance the Yankee's chance for success. Sure this will be a bit of a shake-up but it would be done for the right reasons - not the wrong ones (see Torre dropping ARod to 7th in the order because he couldn't hit). The Locks suggests that Girardi flip-flop Mark Texeira and Robinson Cano in the batting order. Cano is as hot as can be at the moment and you want your most dangerous hitter batting third to take advantage of scoring opportunities. Too often in this series, Tex and ARod have ended rallies only to leave Robbie to lead off innings and his doubles and homers to lack maximum production. Look, we love Tex. Big, big Tex fan. But right now, this line-up is more dangerous with Cano behind Jeter and Grandy/Swisher and ahead of ARod. Tex can still do plenty of damage from the five hole - we're not suggesting benching the guy.
This would be a smart and gutsy move for Girardi to take advantage of Cano's hot bat. I guess those are the two biggest reasons you won't see it happen.
The latest Girardi debacles have centered around his unwillingness to put any base runners in motion during the first two games of the Yanks-Rangers series. In Game 1, when runs were tough to come by and post-season newbie CJ Wilson was ripe for some distraction, the two fastest Yankees both got on base in each of their first two plate appearances. Granderson on first with Gardner up - not even a throw drawn to first base. Gardner walks and moves Grandy up to second - again, no movement. Two innings later. Granderson on first - not a throw to first. Gardner grounds into a force out. Now Gardner on first with Jeter up - no movement. Jeter rolls into DP. Game 2 provided similar options with the same potential benefit of rattling an average pitcher in one of his most meaningful career starts. Opportunity missed. This lack of a running game is maddening on its own - but when juxtaposed with the Rangers stealing bases and runs at will - just ask Elvis Andrus - it is excruciating to watch.
Game three and the rest of the series provides Girardi the opportunity to make a ballsy move and enhance the Yankee's chance for success. Sure this will be a bit of a shake-up but it would be done for the right reasons - not the wrong ones (see Torre dropping ARod to 7th in the order because he couldn't hit). The Locks suggests that Girardi flip-flop Mark Texeira and Robinson Cano in the batting order. Cano is as hot as can be at the moment and you want your most dangerous hitter batting third to take advantage of scoring opportunities. Too often in this series, Tex and ARod have ended rallies only to leave Robbie to lead off innings and his doubles and homers to lack maximum production. Look, we love Tex. Big, big Tex fan. But right now, this line-up is more dangerous with Cano behind Jeter and Grandy/Swisher and ahead of ARod. Tex can still do plenty of damage from the five hole - we're not suggesting benching the guy.
This would be a smart and gutsy move for Girardi to take advantage of Cano's hot bat. I guess those are the two biggest reasons you won't see it happen.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
The Training Wheels Have Been Removed
So we have officially witnessed five full weeks of NFL action. We've seen each team play at least four games and have hopefully be able to form accurate opinions of the 32 franchises. Some are better than we expected. Others are worse. Very few are exactly what we thought they would be. Thus is the NFL in 2010. Anyone can beat any one on a day of the week. Most teams don't even remotely resemble the team they were a week ago or the team they'll be in a week. It is a topsy turvy world and we love it.
With all that babble behind us, we finally arrive at our point. With five games under our belt, the Locksmith is prepared to go on an impressive run of prognostication. It starts now:
Five Star Specials:
Jets @ Broncos - Line is Jets -3.5 - We hate to admit these types of things but the Jets are pretty good. We're simply going to sit back and ride their momentum. They are certainly 3.5 points better than the Broncos and their utter lack of a running game. This is the game that brings Kyle Orton back to earth. Take the New Jersey Pets to win and cover. 26-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Chiefs @ Texans - Line is Texans -4.5 - Who is this Houston Texan team? The group that steamrolled Indy opening week or the team that was steamrolled by Big Blue last Sunday? Most likely somewhere in the middle. And we're betting that it is closer to the steamrollee. The Chiefs on the other hand have made a fairly convincing case for who they are. A tough scrappy team with a stubborn defense and a challenged offense. That leads to many close, low scoring games during which a big play by a big play guy (e.g. McCluster, Arenas, Charles, etc.) is the difference. We'll take the known quantity and the points. Bet the Chiefs +4.5. Score is KC 20-17. LOCK IT UP.
Ravens @ Patriots - Line is Patriots -2.5 - This line doesn't make sense to us. Granted the game is in Foxboro but the Ravens might be the most complete team in the NFL. They have an excellent recent track record against the Pats (just look at their meeting in last year's playoffs). I understand that the genius of Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this game but they've also dealt Senor Moss in the meantime. We're highly dubious of New England defense. We like the Ravens to win outright but you get the added advantage of 2.5 points. Final score is Baltimore 38-33. LOCK IT UP
Falcons @ Eagles - Line is Eagles -2 - Atlanta is too complete a team to be an underdog to nearly anyone in the league - certainly not the Eagles. Philly has done nothing against legitimately solid teams yet this year. I see no basis for this line. The Falcons will pound away with Michael Turner and Ryan to White will work its way into the announcers' mouths at least 10 more times. The Hotlanta Defense is tough and will place quite a bit of pressure on Kevin Kolb. We expect the Falcons to win somewhat easily. Take the points. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Browns @ Steelers - Line is Steelers -14 - This is a very interesting game. Everyone thinks Big Douche Bag Ben is going to roll back into the lineup and the Steelers are going to be throwing up 40 points a game. We don't think the transition will be quite so seamless. That said, Cleveland is starting Colt McCoy against the Steelers defense in Pittsburgh. That is not going to go well. Plus the Browns' only legitimate offensive player (Peyton Hillis) is severely banged up. Cleveland is not likely to score a point in this game. That is enough to take Pittsburgh and lay the 2 TDs. Final score is 24-3. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Titans @ Jaguars - Line is Titans -2.5 - Simple analysis: The Jags stink. Don't look at their record or what they did last week to Buffalo. They stink. The Titans do not stink in any aspect of the game. That's worth at least 2.5 points. Take Tennessee and lay the points. Final score is 33-14. LOCK IT UP
Chargers @ Rams - Line is Chargers -9 - How many more games can the Chargers lose due to their inept special teams? That oddity needs to shift at some point, right? How many games can the Chargers lose with Philip Rivers throwing for 400 yards? This can't continue. Many things are working in SD's favor this week. Marcus McNeil returns to the offensive line. Ryan Mathews is another week healthier and ready to break through. The Rams most dangerous receiver is a little white guy named Danny. Do you sense where I am going? The Rams handed the Lions their first win of the year last week and it wasn't even close. We like the Chargers to win and cover the 9. Final score is 34-17. LOCK IT UP
Saints @ Buccaneers - Line is Saints -4.5 - We usually fall all over ourselves trying to bet home underdogs. In this case, we're even more ecstatic. The Saints are not the same team without even a semblance of a threat of a running attack. A defensive minded team like TB will exploit that one-dimensional limitation. Add to that the confidence that Josh Freeman is playing with and this feels like a game that is going down to the final whistle. The Bucs might not win but they'll battle hard. We'll take the home team and the 4.5 points. Final score is 24-23 Saints. LOCK IT UP
Lions @ Giants - Line is Giants -10 - Call us a big old homer, we don't mind. We think Coughlin and his coaching staff have figured something out in the past few weeks and this team is rallying around each other. Eli is continuing his maturation into one of the most dependable QBs in the league and he has a 1-2 receiver set to rival any team in the league. Throw away the Lions blowout of the Rams last week for the aberration that it was. Detroit is improving but not enough to keep this one close in the New Giants Stadium. The G-Men keep on sacking opposing QBs and roll to an easy win. Take NY and give the 10. Final score is 34-14. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Raiders @ Niners - Line is Niners -7 - One of these weeks the Niners will show up and play to their "talent" level. All these Bay Area Niner fans really hope that this is the week. They just can't stomach the possibility of going 0-6 at the hands of their Cross-Bay rivals. However, the Raiders are the more solid team at this point. Not spectacular, not dynamic, but solid. They'll run the ball a bit, throwing it to Zach Miller a bit and let SeaBass drill 50 yard FGs all day long. Their D will be adequate. All this leaves me thinking that making a winless team a 7 point favorite is a really strange thing to do. Take OakTown and the 7 points. Final score is 22-20. LOCK IT UP
Seahawks @ Bears - Line is Bears -6 - The Bears are not that good. Certainly not 4-1 good. However, Julius Peppers is gnarly good. He's dominating games from the defensive side of the ball. Seattle just doesn't have the offense talent are intuition to deal with the Peppers factor. Being at home with a Jay Cutler looking for a big bounce back game to prove he is past his concussion is enough to get Chicago through this one. Take the Windy City Wingnuts and give Seattle the points. Final score is 23-13. LOCK IT UP
Dolphins @ Packers - Line is Packers -3.5 - Like the Saints, Green Bay is another team that is really being hurt by its inability to mount any sore of running game. Add the loss of several key players and the Packers are reeling a bit. Not surprisingly, all the pundits are hot on Miami this week. We're going to play contrarian in this game. Rodgers worked all week to get cleared to play in this game. He's looking to prove something and Greg Jennings is out to show all his fantasy owners that he has not been kidnapped and replaced by Bernard Berrian. The Packers show some home team pride and get a much needed win. The rest of the season might not be so bright but for one day Green Bay is back on top. Take the Pack and lay 3.5. Final score is 27-20. LOCK IT UP
One Star Specials:
Colts @ Redskins - Line is Colts -3 - This is a game of a few contradictions. The Colts have not looked good on the road but Peyton never plays badly in a nationally televised night game. The Colts can't stop run but the Skins have yet to establish their ability to run the ball. When in a situation like this where the answer seems difficult to discern, we always trust in Manning. Take the Colts and give the points. Final score is 30-24. LOCK IT UP
Cowboys @ Vikings - Line is Vikings -2 - Which QB will throw the last game changing interception in this game. That is all you need to know. Our money is on the great sexter, Brett "Cock and Balls" Favre. Take the Boys and the points. Final score is 26-23 Dallas. LOCK IT UP
With all that babble behind us, we finally arrive at our point. With five games under our belt, the Locksmith is prepared to go on an impressive run of prognostication. It starts now:
Five Star Specials:
Jets @ Broncos - Line is Jets -3.5 - We hate to admit these types of things but the Jets are pretty good. We're simply going to sit back and ride their momentum. They are certainly 3.5 points better than the Broncos and their utter lack of a running game. This is the game that brings Kyle Orton back to earth. Take the New Jersey Pets to win and cover. 26-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Chiefs @ Texans - Line is Texans -4.5 - Who is this Houston Texan team? The group that steamrolled Indy opening week or the team that was steamrolled by Big Blue last Sunday? Most likely somewhere in the middle. And we're betting that it is closer to the steamrollee. The Chiefs on the other hand have made a fairly convincing case for who they are. A tough scrappy team with a stubborn defense and a challenged offense. That leads to many close, low scoring games during which a big play by a big play guy (e.g. McCluster, Arenas, Charles, etc.) is the difference. We'll take the known quantity and the points. Bet the Chiefs +4.5. Score is KC 20-17. LOCK IT UP.
Ravens @ Patriots - Line is Patriots -2.5 - This line doesn't make sense to us. Granted the game is in Foxboro but the Ravens might be the most complete team in the NFL. They have an excellent recent track record against the Pats (just look at their meeting in last year's playoffs). I understand that the genius of Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this game but they've also dealt Senor Moss in the meantime. We're highly dubious of New England defense. We like the Ravens to win outright but you get the added advantage of 2.5 points. Final score is Baltimore 38-33. LOCK IT UP
Falcons @ Eagles - Line is Eagles -2 - Atlanta is too complete a team to be an underdog to nearly anyone in the league - certainly not the Eagles. Philly has done nothing against legitimately solid teams yet this year. I see no basis for this line. The Falcons will pound away with Michael Turner and Ryan to White will work its way into the announcers' mouths at least 10 more times. The Hotlanta Defense is tough and will place quite a bit of pressure on Kevin Kolb. We expect the Falcons to win somewhat easily. Take the points. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Browns @ Steelers - Line is Steelers -14 - This is a very interesting game. Everyone thinks Big Douche Bag Ben is going to roll back into the lineup and the Steelers are going to be throwing up 40 points a game. We don't think the transition will be quite so seamless. That said, Cleveland is starting Colt McCoy against the Steelers defense in Pittsburgh. That is not going to go well. Plus the Browns' only legitimate offensive player (Peyton Hillis) is severely banged up. Cleveland is not likely to score a point in this game. That is enough to take Pittsburgh and lay the 2 TDs. Final score is 24-3. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Titans @ Jaguars - Line is Titans -2.5 - Simple analysis: The Jags stink. Don't look at their record or what they did last week to Buffalo. They stink. The Titans do not stink in any aspect of the game. That's worth at least 2.5 points. Take Tennessee and lay the points. Final score is 33-14. LOCK IT UP
Chargers @ Rams - Line is Chargers -9 - How many more games can the Chargers lose due to their inept special teams? That oddity needs to shift at some point, right? How many games can the Chargers lose with Philip Rivers throwing for 400 yards? This can't continue. Many things are working in SD's favor this week. Marcus McNeil returns to the offensive line. Ryan Mathews is another week healthier and ready to break through. The Rams most dangerous receiver is a little white guy named Danny. Do you sense where I am going? The Rams handed the Lions their first win of the year last week and it wasn't even close. We like the Chargers to win and cover the 9. Final score is 34-17. LOCK IT UP
Saints @ Buccaneers - Line is Saints -4.5 - We usually fall all over ourselves trying to bet home underdogs. In this case, we're even more ecstatic. The Saints are not the same team without even a semblance of a threat of a running attack. A defensive minded team like TB will exploit that one-dimensional limitation. Add to that the confidence that Josh Freeman is playing with and this feels like a game that is going down to the final whistle. The Bucs might not win but they'll battle hard. We'll take the home team and the 4.5 points. Final score is 24-23 Saints. LOCK IT UP
Lions @ Giants - Line is Giants -10 - Call us a big old homer, we don't mind. We think Coughlin and his coaching staff have figured something out in the past few weeks and this team is rallying around each other. Eli is continuing his maturation into one of the most dependable QBs in the league and he has a 1-2 receiver set to rival any team in the league. Throw away the Lions blowout of the Rams last week for the aberration that it was. Detroit is improving but not enough to keep this one close in the New Giants Stadium. The G-Men keep on sacking opposing QBs and roll to an easy win. Take NY and give the 10. Final score is 34-14. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Raiders @ Niners - Line is Niners -7 - One of these weeks the Niners will show up and play to their "talent" level. All these Bay Area Niner fans really hope that this is the week. They just can't stomach the possibility of going 0-6 at the hands of their Cross-Bay rivals. However, the Raiders are the more solid team at this point. Not spectacular, not dynamic, but solid. They'll run the ball a bit, throwing it to Zach Miller a bit and let SeaBass drill 50 yard FGs all day long. Their D will be adequate. All this leaves me thinking that making a winless team a 7 point favorite is a really strange thing to do. Take OakTown and the 7 points. Final score is 22-20. LOCK IT UP
Seahawks @ Bears - Line is Bears -6 - The Bears are not that good. Certainly not 4-1 good. However, Julius Peppers is gnarly good. He's dominating games from the defensive side of the ball. Seattle just doesn't have the offense talent are intuition to deal with the Peppers factor. Being at home with a Jay Cutler looking for a big bounce back game to prove he is past his concussion is enough to get Chicago through this one. Take the Windy City Wingnuts and give Seattle the points. Final score is 23-13. LOCK IT UP
Dolphins @ Packers - Line is Packers -3.5 - Like the Saints, Green Bay is another team that is really being hurt by its inability to mount any sore of running game. Add the loss of several key players and the Packers are reeling a bit. Not surprisingly, all the pundits are hot on Miami this week. We're going to play contrarian in this game. Rodgers worked all week to get cleared to play in this game. He's looking to prove something and Greg Jennings is out to show all his fantasy owners that he has not been kidnapped and replaced by Bernard Berrian. The Packers show some home team pride and get a much needed win. The rest of the season might not be so bright but for one day Green Bay is back on top. Take the Pack and lay 3.5. Final score is 27-20. LOCK IT UP
One Star Specials:
Colts @ Redskins - Line is Colts -3 - This is a game of a few contradictions. The Colts have not looked good on the road but Peyton never plays badly in a nationally televised night game. The Colts can't stop run but the Skins have yet to establish their ability to run the ball. When in a situation like this where the answer seems difficult to discern, we always trust in Manning. Take the Colts and give the points. Final score is 30-24. LOCK IT UP
Cowboys @ Vikings - Line is Vikings -2 - Which QB will throw the last game changing interception in this game. That is all you need to know. Our money is on the great sexter, Brett "Cock and Balls" Favre. Take the Boys and the points. Final score is 26-23 Dallas. LOCK IT UP
A Late Night Call to Gambling Immortality
As Jimmy Hendrix, Bob Dylan and the boys in U2 have been known to croon when belting out All Along the Watchtower, the hour is getting late. Sure, this can be considered an 11th hour posting that doesn't serve the interests of our gambling followers. On the contrary, the Locksmith would assert that we have taken all due caution in surveying the college football landscape and selected only the Prime Grade A beef (appropriate reference as we have just taken down a nice bone-in NY strip at Ruth's Chris courtesy of Senor Borton; a NY strip being even more appropriate following the Yankees improbable Game 1 victory over the Rangers) college football winners. So with no further ado, please find your winners for tomorrow. As all sophisticated followers of the Locks have already surmised, you want to avoid any of our 3 Star Specials. We just can't seem to get those right.
Five Star Special:
Iowa @ Michigan - Line is Iowa -3.5 - We're once again featuring Iowa as our 5 star special. That is how much we like this team. We think the Hawkeyes are legitimately a top 5 team in the country and fully expect them to beat Ohio State and run the table in the Big 10. This game is nothing but a minor speed bump on that path. Michigan has performed very well this year against modest competition. Now that the schedule is increasing in difficulty, we're seeing the Wolverine's cracks - especially on the defensive side of the ball. Iowa will have no problem dominating this game - even though we hate taking road teams in the Big Ten. Iowa is simply an exception to all the rules. They have only played one bad half of football all year. This is a BCS bowl team. LOCK THAT UP. Iowa wins 34-23. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Illinois @ Michigan State - Line is Michigan State -7 - Michigan State feels like a special team this season. From the Little Giants OT play to beat Notre Dame to their coaches' heart attack. These guys have some pixie dust sprinkled on their nuts. They'll eventually get derailed but it is going to take a better team than Illinois to do so and it is not going to happen in East Lansing. Illinois is not that bad but this is not a favorable matchup. Take the Spartans and give 7. Final score is 27-13. LOCK IT UP
California @ USC - Line is USC -2.5 - We've been talking about and waiting for the USC explosion all season. Guess what, everyone gets tired of playing the fool and waiting for something that just ain't happening. Kiffin doesn't have the talent and his players just don't care that much. The Cal Bears - who always seem to sexually assault the Locks - will take advantage on all accounts and get a rare win down in the Rose Bowl. That's right - Cal will win this game outright. Take the Bears and take the 2.5 points. Final score is 38-33. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Oregon State @ Washington - Line is Washington -2 - The Locks just simply loves the Oregon State Beavers and we ain't apologizing for it. Once Fall sets in in the Pacific Northwest, the Beavers start kicking the shit out of people. This team has faced two top 5 teams (Boise State and TCU) and learned from those contests. Sure they are down one of the Rodgers brothers but we suggest that one Rodgers is enough against the over-hyped, under-delivering Huskies. Jake Locker has watched his Heisman and number #1 overall pick in the draft be usurped by his Pac-10 rival Dr. Luck. He's not necessarily responding in the best possible way. He better turn it on or risk a Jimmy Clausen-type slide in the next draft. But that is getting ahead of ourselves. What matters is that Oregon State will win this game and you can win money by taking the points. It's the Beavers +2. Final score is 31-28. LOCK IT UP
Boise State @ San Jose State - Line is Boise State - 41 - We said it last week and we're sticking to our guns - we're riding the Boise State Theorem until the end of the season. That simply means take the Broncos and collect your money. No line is too big because Boise needs the style points. Take the Broncos and lay the points. Final score 65-13. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Ohio State @ Wisconsin - Line is Ohio State -4 - Man we love this Buckeye team. They are unreal on defense - really impressive. Plus they have that guy Pryor who decides to take over games every now and then. That said, there are a few really good Big 10 teams that will make the Ohio State road difficult this year - especially on the road. Wisconsin and its fans are amped up for this game. The Badgers have the running attack to dominate time of possession, wear down the Buckeyes and keep the ball out of the hands and legs of Terrell Pryor. Home field will be huge in this game as it lifts up the Badgers and induces two or three ill-timed false starts by the Buckeyes O-line. This is going to be a slug fest and Wisconsin will hang right in with the #1 team in the country. We're not ready to predict the outright upset but this line is too big. Take Wisconsin and the four points. Final score is 30-27. LOCK IT UP
Five Star Special:
Iowa @ Michigan - Line is Iowa -3.5 - We're once again featuring Iowa as our 5 star special. That is how much we like this team. We think the Hawkeyes are legitimately a top 5 team in the country and fully expect them to beat Ohio State and run the table in the Big 10. This game is nothing but a minor speed bump on that path. Michigan has performed very well this year against modest competition. Now that the schedule is increasing in difficulty, we're seeing the Wolverine's cracks - especially on the defensive side of the ball. Iowa will have no problem dominating this game - even though we hate taking road teams in the Big Ten. Iowa is simply an exception to all the rules. They have only played one bad half of football all year. This is a BCS bowl team. LOCK THAT UP. Iowa wins 34-23. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Illinois @ Michigan State - Line is Michigan State -7 - Michigan State feels like a special team this season. From the Little Giants OT play to beat Notre Dame to their coaches' heart attack. These guys have some pixie dust sprinkled on their nuts. They'll eventually get derailed but it is going to take a better team than Illinois to do so and it is not going to happen in East Lansing. Illinois is not that bad but this is not a favorable matchup. Take the Spartans and give 7. Final score is 27-13. LOCK IT UP
California @ USC - Line is USC -2.5 - We've been talking about and waiting for the USC explosion all season. Guess what, everyone gets tired of playing the fool and waiting for something that just ain't happening. Kiffin doesn't have the talent and his players just don't care that much. The Cal Bears - who always seem to sexually assault the Locks - will take advantage on all accounts and get a rare win down in the Rose Bowl. That's right - Cal will win this game outright. Take the Bears and take the 2.5 points. Final score is 38-33. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Oregon State @ Washington - Line is Washington -2 - The Locks just simply loves the Oregon State Beavers and we ain't apologizing for it. Once Fall sets in in the Pacific Northwest, the Beavers start kicking the shit out of people. This team has faced two top 5 teams (Boise State and TCU) and learned from those contests. Sure they are down one of the Rodgers brothers but we suggest that one Rodgers is enough against the over-hyped, under-delivering Huskies. Jake Locker has watched his Heisman and number #1 overall pick in the draft be usurped by his Pac-10 rival Dr. Luck. He's not necessarily responding in the best possible way. He better turn it on or risk a Jimmy Clausen-type slide in the next draft. But that is getting ahead of ourselves. What matters is that Oregon State will win this game and you can win money by taking the points. It's the Beavers +2. Final score is 31-28. LOCK IT UP
Boise State @ San Jose State - Line is Boise State - 41 - We said it last week and we're sticking to our guns - we're riding the Boise State Theorem until the end of the season. That simply means take the Broncos and collect your money. No line is too big because Boise needs the style points. Take the Broncos and lay the points. Final score 65-13. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Ohio State @ Wisconsin - Line is Ohio State -4 - Man we love this Buckeye team. They are unreal on defense - really impressive. Plus they have that guy Pryor who decides to take over games every now and then. That said, there are a few really good Big 10 teams that will make the Ohio State road difficult this year - especially on the road. Wisconsin and its fans are amped up for this game. The Badgers have the running attack to dominate time of possession, wear down the Buckeyes and keep the ball out of the hands and legs of Terrell Pryor. Home field will be huge in this game as it lifts up the Badgers and induces two or three ill-timed false starts by the Buckeyes O-line. This is going to be a slug fest and Wisconsin will hang right in with the #1 team in the country. We're not ready to predict the outright upset but this line is too big. Take Wisconsin and the four points. Final score is 30-27. LOCK IT UP
Saturday, October 9, 2010
NFL Week 5 - Quick Hitters
Five Star Specials:
Falcons -3 @ Browns
Four Star Specials:
Texans -3 vs. Giants
Chargers -6.5 @ Raiders
Jets -4 vs. Vikings
Three Star Specials:
Jaguars +1.5 @ Bills
Bears +2.5 @ Panthers
Cowboys -7 vs. Titans
Ravens -7 vs. Broncos
Two Star Specials:
Lions -3 vs. Rams
Bucs +6.5 @ Bengals
Packers -2.5 @ Redskins
Eagles +3.5 @ 49ers
One Star Specials:
Chiefs +7.5 @ Colts
Cardinals +7 vs. Saints
Falcons -3 @ Browns
Four Star Specials:
Texans -3 vs. Giants
Chargers -6.5 @ Raiders
Jets -4 vs. Vikings
Three Star Specials:
Jaguars +1.5 @ Bills
Bears +2.5 @ Panthers
Cowboys -7 vs. Titans
Ravens -7 vs. Broncos
Two Star Specials:
Lions -3 vs. Rams
Bucs +6.5 @ Bengals
Packers -2.5 @ Redskins
Eagles +3.5 @ 49ers
One Star Specials:
Chiefs +7.5 @ Colts
Cardinals +7 vs. Saints
Friday, October 8, 2010
Snuffing Out the Analysis Paralysis
One of the most agonizing parts of being the Locksmith is going back and re-reading the analysis of a game that we predicted incorrectly. It is on par with receiving your annual property tax bill in the mail or running out of propane halfway through cooking a beercan chicken. It's just not fun - especially when you write something along the lines of "on paper, this game has Nebraska blowout written all over it" but then suggest that the correct gambling play is to take Kansas State +11. So then when you watch SportsCenter and see that Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez ran for 241 yards and Nebraska did indeed blow out KSU, both on paper and on the field, you feel a bit like a Lloyd Christmas speaking with an Australian accent to a hot Austrian.
That was a long way of saying that we are doing away with our highly valuable "analysis" for the week and simply offering up winners with the occasional minor pearl of wisdom. If this doesn't work then we might just begin having this site redirect to Gambler's Anonymous. LOCK IT UP!
Five Star Special:
Boise State -39 vs. Toledo - We're officially riding the Theorem (the Boise State Theorem, that is) every single week for the rest of the season. LOCK IT UP!
Four Star Specials:
Northwestern -9 vs. Purdue - Big rebound game from Northwestern against a middling Boilermaker squad. LOCK IT UP!
Michigan State +4.5 @ Michigan - Too many points to lay with a UM team whose defense can't stop anyone. Also major rivalry game that Spartans have dominated of late. LOCK IT UP!
Stanford -9.5 vs. USC - Talented, deep and fundamentally sounds vs. talented, lacking in depth and incapable of grasping concept of fundamentals. I'll take the former. Stanford takes out anger over Oregon dismantling on the most hated team in the Pac-10. LOCK IT UP!
Three Star Specials:
Tennessee +11 @ Georgia - How is Georgia still being favored by this many points? What have they proven this year beyond the fact that they are wildly overrated. A loss vs. Colorado? Really? LOCK IT UP!
Florida State +6 @ Miami - Another major rivalry game that typically plays close. In those instances, we take the points. Jacory Harris will turn the ball over enough to keep the Seminoles right in it. LOCK IT UP!
Oregon -36.5 @ Washington State - WSU is one of the two worst football teams in America (keep trying to avoid eye contact New Mexico). Oregon is beating good teams by 36. That settles that. LOCK IT UP!
Auburn -6.5 @ Kentucky - For better or worse the Tigers are a team the Locks' has fallen in love with. Kentucky is blowoutable (new word created by the Locks). LOCK IT UP!
Two Star Specials:
NC State -10 vs. Boston College - BC is woeful. NC State is solid. Only question is how NC State rebounds after tough loss to Va Tech. LOCK IT UP!
Oregon State +8 @ Arizona - This is the time of year that Oregon State typically goes on a run and starts to climb the rankings. Plus, those Rodgers brothers are just too much fun not to root for. LOCK IT UP!
That was a long way of saying that we are doing away with our highly valuable "analysis" for the week and simply offering up winners with the occasional minor pearl of wisdom. If this doesn't work then we might just begin having this site redirect to Gambler's Anonymous. LOCK IT UP!
Five Star Special:
Boise State -39 vs. Toledo - We're officially riding the Theorem (the Boise State Theorem, that is) every single week for the rest of the season. LOCK IT UP!
Four Star Specials:
Northwestern -9 vs. Purdue - Big rebound game from Northwestern against a middling Boilermaker squad. LOCK IT UP!
Michigan State +4.5 @ Michigan - Too many points to lay with a UM team whose defense can't stop anyone. Also major rivalry game that Spartans have dominated of late. LOCK IT UP!
Stanford -9.5 vs. USC - Talented, deep and fundamentally sounds vs. talented, lacking in depth and incapable of grasping concept of fundamentals. I'll take the former. Stanford takes out anger over Oregon dismantling on the most hated team in the Pac-10. LOCK IT UP!
Three Star Specials:
Tennessee +11 @ Georgia - How is Georgia still being favored by this many points? What have they proven this year beyond the fact that they are wildly overrated. A loss vs. Colorado? Really? LOCK IT UP!
Florida State +6 @ Miami - Another major rivalry game that typically plays close. In those instances, we take the points. Jacory Harris will turn the ball over enough to keep the Seminoles right in it. LOCK IT UP!
Oregon -36.5 @ Washington State - WSU is one of the two worst football teams in America (keep trying to avoid eye contact New Mexico). Oregon is beating good teams by 36. That settles that. LOCK IT UP!
Auburn -6.5 @ Kentucky - For better or worse the Tigers are a team the Locks' has fallen in love with. Kentucky is blowoutable (new word created by the Locks). LOCK IT UP!
Two Star Specials:
NC State -10 vs. Boston College - BC is woeful. NC State is solid. Only question is how NC State rebounds after tough loss to Va Tech. LOCK IT UP!
Oregon State +8 @ Arizona - This is the time of year that Oregon State typically goes on a run and starts to climb the rankings. Plus, those Rodgers brothers are just too much fun not to root for. LOCK IT UP!
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Rule #1 Strikes Back
So two Thursdays ago we made the ill-fated decision to dust off the Locks' good ole college football betting Rule #1. We spit shined that thing, placed it on a velvet pillow and watched a line form around the block just to catch a glimpse. Unfortunately for the Locks, Rule #1 experienced less success than a wasted Joe Namath trying to slip Suzy Kolber the tongue on national television. For those of you who don't recall, and quite frankly, why would you, Rule #1 states that you always take the points and a home dog on a Thursday night ESPN game. The home crowd is in a frenzy as this is always the home team's biggest game of the year. The players on the lesser team are super amped to strut their stuff on national television. The road favorites come out a little tight and give the crowd more material to feed off of. It just always turns into a buzz saw for the visitor. They may win, but they never cover. Well almost never. See, nobody told the Pittsburgh Panthers that they were a road dog two weeks ago. Nobody told their fans they were expected to make things tough on the Miami Hurricanes. Most importantly, nobody told the Panthers' offense when the game was because they weren't there. OK, vent over.
The outcome of that Pitt-Miami game is enough to make your average man question some things about himself. Alas, the Locksmith is no average man. In fact, he is now even more determined to prove the mettle of Rule #1. Step right up Kansas State. You have been nominated to carry the torch for Absolute Locks!
Three Star Special:
Nebraska @ Kansas State - Line is Nebraska -11 - Do not get us wrong, there is no comparison between these two teams. From a talent standpoint, the Cornhuskers are on another level. They likely have the single most frightening defense in the country. They have big-time playmakers on the D Line, in the linebacking crew and the secondary. They are scary good as evidenced by their 12.8 average points against. On the other side of the ball, Bo Pelini has created an almost equally scary offense run by dual-threat freshman QB Taylor Martinez. That kid can run and run and run. And Kansas State can't stop the run, the run, the run. On paper, this has Nebraska blowout written all over it.
However, you forget that this is not about players or talent or paper. This is about Rule #1 and that means you take Kansas State and the points. The students in Manhattan (Kansas, that is) will turn this into one of the most hostile environments of the college football season. Not necessarily the place I want to be trusting a freshman QB. It only helps that KSU comes into this game undefeated - it gives the delusional fans even more reason to think this is the game of their lives. A muffed punt by Nebraska here and a redzone Cornhusker turnover there and the Wildcats will be hanging tough all the way through this contest. We don't think that Kansas State wins this game outright, but they keep it close enough to make a winner out of you if you take the points. Bet KSC +11. Final score is 27-17 Nebraska. LOCK IT UP
The outcome of that Pitt-Miami game is enough to make your average man question some things about himself. Alas, the Locksmith is no average man. In fact, he is now even more determined to prove the mettle of Rule #1. Step right up Kansas State. You have been nominated to carry the torch for Absolute Locks!
Three Star Special:
Nebraska @ Kansas State - Line is Nebraska -11 - Do not get us wrong, there is no comparison between these two teams. From a talent standpoint, the Cornhuskers are on another level. They likely have the single most frightening defense in the country. They have big-time playmakers on the D Line, in the linebacking crew and the secondary. They are scary good as evidenced by their 12.8 average points against. On the other side of the ball, Bo Pelini has created an almost equally scary offense run by dual-threat freshman QB Taylor Martinez. That kid can run and run and run. And Kansas State can't stop the run, the run, the run. On paper, this has Nebraska blowout written all over it.
However, you forget that this is not about players or talent or paper. This is about Rule #1 and that means you take Kansas State and the points. The students in Manhattan (Kansas, that is) will turn this into one of the most hostile environments of the college football season. Not necessarily the place I want to be trusting a freshman QB. It only helps that KSU comes into this game undefeated - it gives the delusional fans even more reason to think this is the game of their lives. A muffed punt by Nebraska here and a redzone Cornhusker turnover there and the Wildcats will be hanging tough all the way through this contest. We don't think that Kansas State wins this game outright, but they keep it close enough to make a winner out of you if you take the points. Bet KSC +11. Final score is 27-17 Nebraska. LOCK IT UP
Saturday, October 2, 2010
NFL Week 4
Quick Picks for this Sunday:
Five Stars:
Indianapolis Colts -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars
Four Stars:
Carolina Panthers +13 over New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over Washington Redskins
Three Stars:
Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 over SF 49ers
New York Jets -6 over Buffalo Bills
New England -1 over Miami Dolphins
Two Stars:
Detroit Lions +14 over Green Bay Packers
Oakland Raiders +3.5 over Houston Texans
Chicago Bears +3.5 over New York Giants
One Star:
Arizona Cardinals +9.5 over San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams +2 over Seattle Seahawks
Tennessee Titans -6.5 over Denver Broncos
Five Stars:
Indianapolis Colts -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars
Four Stars:
Carolina Panthers +13 over New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over Washington Redskins
Three Stars:
Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 over SF 49ers
New York Jets -6 over Buffalo Bills
New England -1 over Miami Dolphins
Two Stars:
Detroit Lions +14 over Green Bay Packers
Oakland Raiders +3.5 over Houston Texans
Chicago Bears +3.5 over New York Giants
One Star:
Arizona Cardinals +9.5 over San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams +2 over Seattle Seahawks
Tennessee Titans -6.5 over Denver Broncos
Friday, October 1, 2010
Wolkpacks, Hawkeyes and Buckeyes, Oh My!
We're looking to rebound harder this week in the college football department than an insecure high school cheerleader who just got dumped by her abusive football playing boyfriend. Look out and LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Virginia Tech @ NC State - Line is Va Tech -3.5 - We love the home underdog, especially when you can argue that it is the better team playing in the game. NC State has been a revelation this season playing solid defense that applies pressure on opposing QBs (5th in the country in sacks per game), causing turnovers, scoring points (just under 38 points per game), moving the ball easily through the air and protecting the pigskin. Most importantly, they are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) this season. A team this fundamentally sound should not be a home dog unless they're being visited by a top 10 team. Va Tech is not a Top 10 team. They have the talent and had a shot to be one, but blew that chance with its early season efforts against Boise State and James Madison. The team has rebounded nicely in recent weeks including last week's shutout of Boston College. However, this will be the best team the Hokies have faced since opening weekend. Va Tech has not really shown the top notch defense and special teams that have come to epitomize a Frank Beamer team. We just can't help ourselves in snatching the points in this game. Take NC State and 3.5 points. The Wolfpack win this game outright. 27-20. LOCK IT UP
Penn State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -7 - Last season we screamed from the mountaintops about just how overrated we thought the Nitzy Lions were. That team's inability to cover nearly even spread regardless of opponent supported our beliefs. Well this a new season but not a new Penn State crew. We just as underwhelmed by this team as we were by last year's edition. They have a middling offense that does most things decently but nothing great. That isn't going to work against the country's #3 rush defense and #21 pass defense. Yards, and more importantly, points, will be hard to come by for Penn State. That issue will only be exacerbated by playing at Iowa. The Hawkeyes ran into an absolute buzz saw in Arizona two weeks and still almost came all the way back to beat a solid Wildcat squad. We think Iowa receive the wake-up call loud and clear and now has its sites set on a potential Big 10 title. We're really looking forward to the Iowa-Ohio State collision later this season. But for that game to really matter, the Hawkeyes need to continue to take care of business - which they will on Saturday. Lay the 7 points and roll with Iowa. Final score is 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Illinois - Line is Ohio State -17 - Speaking of Ohio State - this team is damn nasty. We got burned last week picking against them under the belief they wouldn't run up the score on poor Eastern Michigan. A dozen Terrell Pryor touchdowns later (passing, rushing and receiving) and Ohio State looked more like the 2007 Patriots than the conservative Jim Tressel squad we've come to know. Sure this is a big number on the road in conference. We just think the Buckeyes are that good in every aspect of the game (3rd in the country in scoring, 5th in rushing defense, 7th in total turnovers, etc., etc.) The team is 4-0 ATS this season covering lines of 28, 30 and 44.5 along the way. Then there is Illinois. An average team that can run the ball a little bit but is prone to turning it over as well. They've spent the past two weeks beating up on their in-state brethren (Northern Illinois and Southern Illinois). Something tells us those games didn't prepare them for Ohio State. Lay the points with confidence. Take OSU -17. Final score is 45-17. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Wisconsin @ Michigan State - Over/Under is 54 - Here's our first O/U pick of the season and we love it. It's a tough Big Ten battle between two teams that want to run the ball. The problem there is that both teams are pretty darn tough to run against. This game should be a grind with the clock running nearly all the time. Michigan State is giving up just over 17 points a game with Wisconsin surrounding even less - just over 14 per contest. As long as this doesn't go to overtime, the O/U should never be tested. Take the Under as this game is played to a 24-23 Wisconsin win. LOCK IT UP
Arizona State @ Oregon State - Over/Under is 55 - We liked that last O/U so much we decided to do it again. Except, this time we're taking an Over in a game we expect to be a shootout. AZ State is average 36 points a game and the Beavers are surrendering more than 31. On the other side of the ball, the electrifying Rodgers brothers are good for a few TDs each. The Over has hit in each of Oregon State's last five games dating back to last season and it has paid in four of the past five showdowns between these two teams (the fifth was actually a push). To think that the Wis/MichSt O/U is all the way at 54 and this one is only 55 seems rather odd to the Locksmith. That's great - oddities often pay handsomely. These two teams just can't drive 55. Take the Over. Final score is 38-33 Oregon State. LOCK IT UP
Northwestern @ Minnesota - Line is Northwestern -5.5 Northwestern's Dan Persa is one of the finest dual threat quarterbacks in the country and will cause headaches for the Gophers marginal defense all game long. Minny has lost its last three games - all at home - and this is shaping up to be a lost season in their beautiful new stadium. Quite the opposite for Northwestern as they continue to make noise as an up-and-comer in the Big Ten. This is a key game for them in those efforts and we think Persa leads the way to a convincing victory. Take Northwestern and lay the 5.5 points. Final score is 33-23. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Special:
Tennessee @ LSU - Line is LSU -16.5 - We know that Tennessee stinks and that they have no depth but we just can't understand LSU being a 16.5 point favorite in any SEC game with George Jefferson at QB. He is abysmal. He is putrid. He has brought JaMarcus Russell back to LSU. The Tiger offense can simply not be counted on to be even remotely productive. Their defense is top-notch but oh that offense is offensive to our sensibilities. We take umbrage at that offense. Have we made our point? We think that the Volunteers figure out how to score about 13 garbage points and that will be enough to bust this ridiculous spread. Take Tennessee and the points. LSU wins 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Virginia Tech @ NC State - Line is Va Tech -3.5 - We love the home underdog, especially when you can argue that it is the better team playing in the game. NC State has been a revelation this season playing solid defense that applies pressure on opposing QBs (5th in the country in sacks per game), causing turnovers, scoring points (just under 38 points per game), moving the ball easily through the air and protecting the pigskin. Most importantly, they are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) this season. A team this fundamentally sound should not be a home dog unless they're being visited by a top 10 team. Va Tech is not a Top 10 team. They have the talent and had a shot to be one, but blew that chance with its early season efforts against Boise State and James Madison. The team has rebounded nicely in recent weeks including last week's shutout of Boston College. However, this will be the best team the Hokies have faced since opening weekend. Va Tech has not really shown the top notch defense and special teams that have come to epitomize a Frank Beamer team. We just can't help ourselves in snatching the points in this game. Take NC State and 3.5 points. The Wolfpack win this game outright. 27-20. LOCK IT UP
Penn State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -7 - Last season we screamed from the mountaintops about just how overrated we thought the Nitzy Lions were. That team's inability to cover nearly even spread regardless of opponent supported our beliefs. Well this a new season but not a new Penn State crew. We just as underwhelmed by this team as we were by last year's edition. They have a middling offense that does most things decently but nothing great. That isn't going to work against the country's #3 rush defense and #21 pass defense. Yards, and more importantly, points, will be hard to come by for Penn State. That issue will only be exacerbated by playing at Iowa. The Hawkeyes ran into an absolute buzz saw in Arizona two weeks and still almost came all the way back to beat a solid Wildcat squad. We think Iowa receive the wake-up call loud and clear and now has its sites set on a potential Big 10 title. We're really looking forward to the Iowa-Ohio State collision later this season. But for that game to really matter, the Hawkeyes need to continue to take care of business - which they will on Saturday. Lay the 7 points and roll with Iowa. Final score is 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Illinois - Line is Ohio State -17 - Speaking of Ohio State - this team is damn nasty. We got burned last week picking against them under the belief they wouldn't run up the score on poor Eastern Michigan. A dozen Terrell Pryor touchdowns later (passing, rushing and receiving) and Ohio State looked more like the 2007 Patriots than the conservative Jim Tressel squad we've come to know. Sure this is a big number on the road in conference. We just think the Buckeyes are that good in every aspect of the game (3rd in the country in scoring, 5th in rushing defense, 7th in total turnovers, etc., etc.) The team is 4-0 ATS this season covering lines of 28, 30 and 44.5 along the way. Then there is Illinois. An average team that can run the ball a little bit but is prone to turning it over as well. They've spent the past two weeks beating up on their in-state brethren (Northern Illinois and Southern Illinois). Something tells us those games didn't prepare them for Ohio State. Lay the points with confidence. Take OSU -17. Final score is 45-17. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Wisconsin @ Michigan State - Over/Under is 54 - Here's our first O/U pick of the season and we love it. It's a tough Big Ten battle between two teams that want to run the ball. The problem there is that both teams are pretty darn tough to run against. This game should be a grind with the clock running nearly all the time. Michigan State is giving up just over 17 points a game with Wisconsin surrounding even less - just over 14 per contest. As long as this doesn't go to overtime, the O/U should never be tested. Take the Under as this game is played to a 24-23 Wisconsin win. LOCK IT UP
Arizona State @ Oregon State - Over/Under is 55 - We liked that last O/U so much we decided to do it again. Except, this time we're taking an Over in a game we expect to be a shootout. AZ State is average 36 points a game and the Beavers are surrendering more than 31. On the other side of the ball, the electrifying Rodgers brothers are good for a few TDs each. The Over has hit in each of Oregon State's last five games dating back to last season and it has paid in four of the past five showdowns between these two teams (the fifth was actually a push). To think that the Wis/MichSt O/U is all the way at 54 and this one is only 55 seems rather odd to the Locksmith. That's great - oddities often pay handsomely. These two teams just can't drive 55. Take the Over. Final score is 38-33 Oregon State. LOCK IT UP
Northwestern @ Minnesota - Line is Northwestern -5.5 Northwestern's Dan Persa is one of the finest dual threat quarterbacks in the country and will cause headaches for the Gophers marginal defense all game long. Minny has lost its last three games - all at home - and this is shaping up to be a lost season in their beautiful new stadium. Quite the opposite for Northwestern as they continue to make noise as an up-and-comer in the Big Ten. This is a key game for them in those efforts and we think Persa leads the way to a convincing victory. Take Northwestern and lay the 5.5 points. Final score is 33-23. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Special:
Tennessee @ LSU - Line is LSU -16.5 - We know that Tennessee stinks and that they have no depth but we just can't understand LSU being a 16.5 point favorite in any SEC game with George Jefferson at QB. He is abysmal. He is putrid. He has brought JaMarcus Russell back to LSU. The Tiger offense can simply not be counted on to be even remotely productive. Their defense is top-notch but oh that offense is offensive to our sensibilities. We take umbrage at that offense. Have we made our point? We think that the Volunteers figure out how to score about 13 garbage points and that will be enough to bust this ridiculous spread. Take Tennessee and the points. LSU wins 24-13. LOCK IT UP
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