Four Star Specials:
Virginia Tech @ NC State - Line is Va Tech -3.5 - We love the home underdog, especially when you can argue that it is the better team playing in the game. NC State has been a revelation this season playing solid defense that applies pressure on opposing QBs (5th in the country in sacks per game), causing turnovers, scoring points (just under 38 points per game), moving the ball easily through the air and protecting the pigskin. Most importantly, they are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) this season. A team this fundamentally sound should not be a home dog unless they're being visited by a top 10 team. Va Tech is not a Top 10 team. They have the talent and had a shot to be one, but blew that chance with its early season efforts against Boise State and James Madison. The team has rebounded nicely in recent weeks including last week's shutout of Boston College. However, this will be the best team the Hokies have faced since opening weekend. Va Tech has not really shown the top notch defense and special teams that have come to epitomize a Frank Beamer team. We just can't help ourselves in snatching the points in this game. Take NC State and 3.5 points. The Wolfpack win this game outright. 27-20. LOCK IT UP
Penn State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -7 - Last season we screamed from the mountaintops about just how overrated we thought the Nitzy Lions were. That team's inability to cover nearly even spread regardless of opponent supported our beliefs. Well this a new season but not a new Penn State crew. We just as underwhelmed by this team as we were by last year's edition. They have a middling offense that does most things decently but nothing great. That isn't going to work against the country's #3 rush defense and #21 pass defense. Yards, and more importantly, points, will be hard to come by for Penn State. That issue will only be exacerbated by playing at Iowa. The Hawkeyes ran into an absolute buzz saw in Arizona two weeks and still almost came all the way back to beat a solid Wildcat squad. We think Iowa receive the wake-up call loud and clear and now has its sites set on a potential Big 10 title. We're really looking forward to the Iowa-Ohio State collision later this season. But for that game to really matter, the Hawkeyes need to continue to take care of business - which they will on Saturday. Lay the 7 points and roll with Iowa. Final score is 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Illinois - Line is Ohio State -17 - Speaking of Ohio State - this team is damn nasty. We got burned last week picking against them under the belief they wouldn't run up the score on poor Eastern Michigan. A dozen Terrell Pryor touchdowns later (passing, rushing and receiving) and Ohio State looked more like the 2007 Patriots than the conservative Jim Tressel squad we've come to know. Sure this is a big number on the road in conference. We just think the Buckeyes are that good in every aspect of the game (3rd in the country in scoring, 5th in rushing defense, 7th in total turnovers, etc., etc.) The team is 4-0 ATS this season covering lines of 28, 30 and 44.5 along the way. Then there is Illinois. An average team that can run the ball a little bit but is prone to turning it over as well. They've spent the past two weeks beating up on their in-state brethren (Northern Illinois and Southern Illinois). Something tells us those games didn't prepare them for Ohio State. Lay the points with confidence. Take OSU -17. Final score is 45-17. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Wisconsin @ Michigan State - Over/Under is 54 - Here's our first O/U pick of the season and we love it. It's a tough Big Ten battle between two teams that want to run the ball. The problem there is that both teams are pretty darn tough to run against. This game should be a grind with the clock running nearly all the time. Michigan State is giving up just over 17 points a game with Wisconsin surrounding even less - just over 14 per contest. As long as this doesn't go to overtime, the O/U should never be tested. Take the Under as this game is played to a 24-23 Wisconsin win. LOCK IT UP
Arizona State @ Oregon State - Over/Under is 55 - We liked that last O/U so much we decided to do it again. Except, this time we're taking an Over in a game we expect to be a shootout. AZ State is average 36 points a game and the Beavers are surrendering more than 31. On the other side of the ball, the electrifying Rodgers brothers are good for a few TDs each. The Over has hit in each of Oregon State's last five games dating back to last season and it has paid in four of the past five showdowns between these two teams (the fifth was actually a push). To think that the Wis/MichSt O/U is all the way at 54 and this one is only 55 seems rather odd to the Locksmith. That's great - oddities often pay handsomely. These two teams just can't drive 55. Take the Over. Final score is 38-33 Oregon State. LOCK IT UP
Northwestern @ Minnesota - Line is Northwestern -5.5 Northwestern's Dan Persa is one of the finest dual threat quarterbacks in the country and will cause headaches for the Gophers marginal defense all game long. Minny has lost its last three games - all at home - and this is shaping up to be a lost season in their beautiful new stadium. Quite the opposite for Northwestern as they continue to make noise as an up-and-comer in the Big Ten. This is a key game for them in those efforts and we think Persa leads the way to a convincing victory. Take Northwestern and lay the 5.5 points. Final score is 33-23. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Special:
Tennessee @ LSU - Line is LSU -16.5 - We know that Tennessee stinks and that they have no depth but we just can't understand LSU being a 16.5 point favorite in any SEC game with George Jefferson at QB. He is abysmal. He is putrid. He has brought JaMarcus Russell back to LSU. The Tiger offense can simply not be counted on to be even remotely productive. Their defense is top-notch but oh that offense is offensive to our sensibilities. We take umbrage at that offense. Have we made our point? We think that the Volunteers figure out how to score about 13 garbage points and that will be enough to bust this ridiculous spread. Take Tennessee and the points. LSU wins 24-13. LOCK IT UP
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