College football delivered yet another day of unpredictable action with little rhyme or reason to who showed up to play (Iowa, Auburn, Stanford, Syracuse) and who didn't (Michigan State, Missouri, Clemson and Miami). That is the Locksmith's way of establishing an alibi for a potentially mediocre day of prognostication. Well no excuse will be needed come this time tomorrow, we're ready for our best day of predicting professional pigskin.
Five Star Special:
Miami @ Cincinnati - Line is Dolphins +1 - Is this line correct? I can seem to understand it. The Dolphins are a very solid football team and have yet to lose on the road. The Bengals have proven nothing yet this year other than the fact that they are not very good, Carson Palmer is no longer a decent NFL QB and their WRs can't back up all their talk. Getting points here feels like a real treat. Miami will win this game. Final score is 23-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Pittsburgh @ New Orleans - Line is Saints -1 - This is a complete gut pick. We think the Saints are due and we think it's going to be a big time game (i.e. nationally televised night game against a top 3 team) in which they make a statement. Pittsburgh's been catching a number of breaks and that tends to even out. The Superdome will be a tough place for the Steelers and Halloween in the Big Easy only makes that more of a troubling situation. This game will be close but we expect an ill-advised Big Ben pick or two to be the difference. The Saints win 27-23. LOCK IT UP
Green Bay @ New York Jets - Line is Jets -6.5 - We can't believe that we're driving this Pets' gravy train but you just can't argue with success - especially when it equates to gambling winnings. The Jets have had a week to prepare for a banged up Green Bay team that just had to play their butts off to barely beat an underachieving Vikings team at home. Revis Island appears to be inhabited again this week so say goodbye to Greg Jennings. Without him, who the heck will Rodgers throw to? This one is not shaping up well for the Pack. Look for a pretty convincing Jets' win. Final score is 24-10. LOCK IT UP
Carolina @ St. Louis - Line is Rams -2 - Can you believe that the Rams are favorites in games these days? More importantly, can you believe we're picking them to cover as a favorite as a four star special? Well we are. The Panthers are banged up. Steve Smith ain't himself and DeAngelo Williams is likely a no-go this week. The Rams D is solid, as is Steven Jackson. We all have to start getting used to some convincing Rams' victories. Final score is 23-14. LOCK IT UP
Denver vs San Francisco (in London) - Line is 49ers -2.5 - How can these 49ers possibly be favored in any game at this point. That is all that we have to write about this one. Too bad the good folks of England need to see this game. Take the Broncos and the points. Denver wins 25-23. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Washington @ Detroit - Line is Lions -2.5 - Now the Lions are favorites too? That's just too much for us. We'd like to see Matthew Stafford play an entire game before we give this offense our blessing. What we do know is that the Lions' defense isn't very good. And you have to give it to those Skins. They are somehow figuring out how to win games week in and week out. It's rarely pretty but shockingly effective. We'll take the points here. Skins win outright 16-13. LOCK IT UP
Buffalo @ Kansas City - Line is Chiefs -7 - It must be Halloween if the Chiefs are also favorites. Actually, this team is very much for real. And the Bills are atrocious. Don't be fooled by all the Ryan Fitzpatrick hype. The Bills stink. The Chiefs will run all over them. The home crowd will demoralize the Bills. Nothing will work for them. Final score is 33-17. LOCK IT UP
Jacksonville @ Dallas - Line is Cowboys -6.5 - It is now or never for the Cowboys. Fortunately the Jaguars are coming to town. Dallas is due for one solid performance at some point. They just can't keep playing this badly. The John Kitna era gets off to a fast start. Final score is 31-17. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ Indianapolis - Line is Colts -4.5 - This is a payback game if there ever was one. The Colts, especially their defense, remembers what Arian Foster did to them in Week 1. Don't expect a repeat. Plus Peyton Manning on Monday night is just too much of a good bet. Lay the points as the Colts treat the Texans fairly rudely. Final score is 38-28. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Seattle @ Oakland - Line is Raiders -2.5 - Oakland is getting better, no argument here. However, in typical Raider fashion, they will find a way to demoralize fans after building them up with last week's demolition of Denver. The Seahawks are showing some spunk under Pete Carroll. We like a Seahawk win on the road. Final score is 24-20. LOCK IT UP
Tennessee @ San Diego - Line is Chargers -4.5 - Somehow what we originally wrote about this game got erased. It was something along the lines of the Chargers being due. That they can't keep leading the NFL in total offense and total defense but not win games. Tennessee is good but they're getting too much love these days which is the kiss of death. For one week at least, the Chargers will look like a legitimate team. They'll cover. Final score is 31-23. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ New England - Line is Patriots -4.5 - Just like it is now or never for the Cowboys, it is now or never for the Vikings. The Patriots win close games but that doesn't mean they'll cover. Their offense is just not as dynamic with Senor Moss. We think ADP runs over enough Pats to keep this close. Take the points. Final score is 23-21. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Tampa Bay @ Arizona - Lines is Cardinals -3.5 - If Tampa Bay is really one of the best teams in the NFC - which their coach seems to believe - this is a game they need to win. We all know that the Cardinals are much tougher at home but let's not forget that Max Hall is their QB. Josh Freeman is a winner and the Tampa D should be able to keep the Cards in check. We'll take the 3.5 points and roll with Freeman. Final score is 20-17. LOCK IT UP
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