NFL Picks

Four Star Specials:

Packers +2 over Falcons
Vikings -2 over Redskins
Niners -1 over Cardinals

Three Star Specials:

Buccaneers +7.5 over Ravens
Eagles -3 over Bears
Seahawks +2.5 over Chiefs
Rams +3.5 over Broncos

Two Star Specials:

Giants -7 over Jaguars
Steelers -6.5 over Bills
Chargers +2.5 over Colts
Panthers +9.5 over Browns 

One Star Special:

Texans -6 over Titans

Food Coma Makes Predictions Come Easily

Here are your college football winners for Thanksgiving weekend.  No commentary, just winners:

Five Star Special:

Boise State -14 over Nevada

Four Star Specials:

Northern Illinois -24 over Eastern Michigan
UConn -1 over Cincinnati
TCU -43.5 over New Mexico

Three Star Specials:

Auburn +3.5 over Alabama
Florida +2 over Florida State
NC State -2 over Maryland
Oklahoma State -2.5 over Oklahoma

Two Star Specials:

Arizona +19 over Oregon
LSU +3.5 over Arkansas

One Star Special:

South Florida +11.5 over Miami

Don't Be A Turkey - Listen to the Locks on Thanksgiving

5 Star Special:

New Orleans @ Dallas - Line is Saints -4 - The pendulum has swung too far, too fast for these Cowboys.  They couldn't cover or bust a spread to save their lives three weeks ago and now they are only 4 point dogs to the cruising Saints?  Remember that Kitna is still their QB and they still can't run the ball no matter who lines up in the backfield.  It was a nice little run by Dallas but Brees and his boys are starting to fire on all cylinders.  Add a dynamic Reggie Bush back in the mix on Thursday and this game shouldn't be that close.  Lay the four points and take New Orleans.  Final score is 34-24.  LOCK IT UP 

3 Star Special:

New England @ Detroit - Line is Patriots -6.5 - Not much analysis here.  This is a short week so we expect some weird things to happen.  The Pats have been on too good of a roll recently and finally showed some cracks late in last week's game against the Colts.  Detroit can't run the ball so we might see Shaun Hill throw it 50 times here.  That just might work against the Pats young and sometimes leaky secondary.  Look for New England to lead throughout and the Lions to treat us all to a nice backdoor cover with a late Hill to Calvin TD.  Remember, Detroit has been excellent against the spread this season.  Take the Lions and the points.  Final score is 34-28.  LOCK IT UP

2 Star Special:

Cincinnati @ NY Jets - Line is Jets -9 - This is a tough game to handicap.  The Jets should cover with ease.  Then again, they should have covered with ease each of the past two weeks.  The Bengals seem as if they officially quit on their season at halftime of last week's game against Buffalo.  Not a good sign when you're traveling to one the best teams in the league.  Carson Palmer should continue to play like he's in special education against the frenetic defense scheme of Rex Ryan.  We might just see 4 or 5 picks by the Jets "ordinary" corners.  All that said, the way the Jets have been playing (down to the wire) makes this line look enormous.  Regardless, we're betting they finally put it all together against a team that would rather be eating stuffing.  Take the Jets to cover.  Final score is 27-10.  LOCK IT UP

More MAC Attack and the Debut of College Hoops

Today the Locks is blazing new trails in its brief history.  That's right, we're expanding our prognostication to now include select NCAA basketball games.  We typically like to sit back and enjoy college hoops as a fan, especially this early in the year when we are working to learn about teams.  However, a juicy match up like tonight's final of the CBE Classic (pitting #1 Duke vs. #4 Kansas State) is just way to interesting to avoid.  But first, here's our mandatory Tuesday night MAC football game:

One Star Special:

Temple @ Miami (Ohio) - Line is Temple -7.5 - We're shifting back to be a pimp for Rule #1.  That's right, its time to take the points and the home dog in an ESPN prime time game.  Temple had a shot last week to impress the nation at home on a nationally televised game and instead got beat handily by an inferior opponent.  Well, we won't make the same mistake twice with Temple and Bill Cosby.  This is a major showdown in the late-season battle for MAC supremacy.  Miami, while the author of many very close victories, stands at 6-1 (tied for first place in the MAC East) and a full game ahead of Temple in the standings.  The RedHawks are at home and playing for a piece of the MAC East crown.  That is just too much, when combined with trusty Rule #1, not to go with Miami.  They'll need to throw the ball on a tough Temple D but we think this game remains close throughout.  Take the 7.5 points and roll with Miami.  Final score is 33-29.  LOCK IT UP

College Basketball:


Kansas State vs. Duke (CBE Classic Championship in Kansas City, MO) - Line is Duke -5.5 - This is a rare, special early season powerhouse showdown.  Clearly, these are two of the country's most talented teams and both would love to use this game to set the tone for the season moving forward.  Duke is Duke and the defending champ so a loss here will only be a minor speed bump.  However, K-State is a school on the rise who has been starving for opportunities to make a case as an elite program.  There is no better opportunity than this.  Knocking off the country's #1 team and defending champ will make a significant statement about the Wildcats.  Here are the reasons that we think K-State has a shot. 

They take on the personality of their frightening coach Frank Martin.  That means they have a mean, pesky and aggressive defense that makes everything you try to do more difficult than it should be.  They are disruptive and that will be a big key against a team like Duke that likes to play an organized, efficient game.  They have a dynamic, SENIOR point guard who can take over a game in any number of ways.  This leadership and ability will be crucial in upsetting a team as solid as Duke.  He should be able to make the younger Duke backcourt (particularly Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving, Andre Dawkins) a bit uncomfortable.  K-State also has a carousel of big men that it can rotate onto the floor to do battle with Kyle Singler and Mason Plumlee.  Duke will often find itself with advantageous front court match ups throughout the season.  However, tonight will not be one of those games.  Everything they want/expect to do down low will be aggressively contested. 

Make no mistake, Duke is an excellent team and will be a beast to contend with this season.  However, the same will likely be said about the Wildcats throughout the next four months.  This should be a hard fought game with both teams pushing the tempo on offense and trying to be the more physical team on defense.  With the expectation that this will be close, we'll take K-State and the points.  Final score will be 78-75.  LOCK IT UP

NFL Picks

We're late.  We know.  But sometimes it takes a little extra time to cook up winners:

Five Star Special:

Ravens -13.5 over Panthers

Four Star Specials:

Packers -3 over Vikings
Browns +2.5 over Jaguars
Jets -6.5 over Texans
Saints -11.5 over Seahawks

Three Star Specials:

Giants +3.5 over Eagles
Raiders +7 over Steelers
Falcons -3.5 over Rams
Cardinals +7.5 over Chiefs
Colts +4.5 over Patriots
 
Two Star Specials:

Lions +6 over Cowboys
Broncos +9.5 over Chargers
Buccaneers +3.5 over 49ers
Redskins +7 over Titans

One Star Special:

Bengals -4.5 over Bills

The Weekend The Locks Won You Over

That's right.  This is the weekend that we've been building toward all year.  We've had our ups and downs throughout the season (both college and pro) but the stars are aligned for Big Bucks and No Whammies this weekend before Thanksgiving.  We got things started with our Four Star Special in the NFL last evening and we're going to keep things rolling with 11 big showdowns on Saturday.  If you've been working our picks all year, this is the weekend that gets you in the Black.  If you've been waiting on the sidelines, now is the time to jump in.

Five Star Special:

Arkansas @ Mississippi State - Line is Arkansas -3 - Arkansas has been one of the country's forgotten teams these past few weeks as everyone has been caught up in the Cam Newton drama, BCS vs. Non-AQ school debate and asking whether or not the Cal Bears are real men or just fakers.  Well overlook the Hogs at your own peril.  This team can play.  They are 8-2 with their only losses coming against then #1 Alabama (by four points) and at current #2 Auburn.  They haven't been tested in the last month in reeling off four straight victories and are the country's third best passing offense and a top 15 team in terms of scoring.  Their defense ain't too shabby either as it ranks in the top 40 in points allowed.  The Bulldogs have plodded along relatively nicely this season in achieving a current top 25 ranking.  However, further examination shows that they are only 1-3 against ranked teams and that 1 was a 3-point victory over the potentially overrated Gators of Florida.  They can run the ball and play defense which will always beat mediocre and bad teams.  However, you need to be a bit more dynamic than that when facing top-tier competition.  Miss St. just got throttled by a banged up Bama squad to drop them to 3-3 in the SEC.  That might be just enough to have these guys a bit deflated and lacking something really meaningful to play for.  If this game wasn't in Mississippi, then the line wouldn't be this small.  Take advantage of that and lay the 3 measly points.  The Hogs will cover this with ease.  Final score is 37-23.  LOCK IT UP

Four Star Specials:

Wisconsin @ Michigan - Line is Wisconsin -4 - The Badgers are public enemy number 1 this week following the 83 points (potential ill-willed run-up) they threw on Indiana last week.  From a gambling perspective, we think this plays right into the hands of those supporting Wisconsin.  At this point, they have no friends or prospects of gaining any friends so they might just be in F-U mode on Saturday.  They won't be inclined to call off the dogs at any point, especially with a Big Ten title on the line.  This is a very good team that doesn't beat itself.  They run the ball and play defense (I'm starting to sound like a broken record).  They've already dispatched both Iowa and Ohio State and would be perfect if not for an early season slip-up against the then on fire Michigan State Spartans.  The line in this game started the week at 5.5 and has slipped all the way down to 4.  This confounds the Locksmith.  Apparently the idiot public like Michigan in this spot.  Well, that makes sense if you like a team that has beaten no team of any consequence and a team wholly incapable of playing defense.  This doesn't sound like much of a "nightmare" match up for the Badgers.  Sure Denard Robinson is exciting and dynamic and capable of making some plays but what about the rest of the Wolverines?  They just don't stack up against Wisconsin in any reasonable way.  Look out for another explosion of points from UW.  Michigan does not stand much of a chance here.  Lay the points.  Final score is 48-31.  LOCK IT UP

Kansas State @ Colorado - Line is Kansas State -2 - The Locks better be careful pimping all of these road favorites.  That is usually not a great recipe for success.  However, these match ups are too good to ignore.  The K-State Wildcats are a team that we've had our eye on for a while.  Their record might not be tremendous but they have been great against the spread this year (6-3) especially on the road (3-0).  Vegas just can't establish a line that this team can't bust.  And then there are the Buffaloes of Colorado who are 1-4 ATS in their past 5 games and 1-5 ATS within the Big 12.  Did I mention that they are on to the second head coach of the season?  A lot gets made of the fact that playing in Boulder is tough on visitors because of the elevation.  Interesting in that Colorado has lost 2 of its past 3 games at home and only beaten the lame Cyclones of Iowa State during that stretch.  The Buffaloes do nothing exceptionally well and most things at a below mediocre level.  At least K-State can run the ball and score reasonably well.  That will be enough for them to cover this tiny spread.  Once again, lay the points and kick the home dog while he's down.  Take K-State. Final score is 41-30.  LOCK IT UP

Nebraska @ Texas A&M - Line is Nebraska -2.5 - Dag Nabbit, another road favorite that the Locks can't help but love on Saturday.  Make no mistake, this will be a competitive game.  The Aggies are a legit team and they just might be an opponent that can somewhat slow down Taylor Martinez.  That said, Nebraska is just too good.  They have: (1) an explosive rushing attack led by Martinez and Ray Helu Jr.; (2) a top 10 defense with a lock down corner back; and (3) major momentum with four straight victories including beatings of Top 15 teams (at the time) - Oklahoma State and Missouri.  As we said, A&M is no slouch and comes into this game equally hot.  However, they've already lost home games against teams of the Cornhuskers' caliber (Arkansas and Missouri).  Plus, they need to throw the ball to win and that's where Nebraska's lock down corner and top 10 defense come in to play.  If this line was a bit bigger, we'd be tempted to take the home dog.  However, it's not, so we're not.  Nebraska wins a close game and covers.  Final score is 31-27.  LOCK IT UP

Three Star Specials:

Duke @ Georgia Tech - Line is GA Tech -10.5 - Talk about a line moving throughout the week.  This one started with the Yellow Jackets as a 13 point favorite.  Apparently, the Idiot Public likes the Blue Devils in this game.  Must be basketball season in Durham and fans are confused.  That said, this is one time where the Locks will step down off of its pedestal and become one with the Idiot Public.  Georgia Tech is not the same team without starting QB Senor Nesbitt.  He was the lynch pin in that wishbone offense and he's now taken up residence on the sideline.  It's no coincidence that Ga Tech got smoked last week in the first game without Dr. Nesbitt.  In fact, they've dropped three straight.  Now Duke is no football powerhouse.  They are 1-5 in the mediocre ACC after all.  However, they've been playing better of late (2-1) and looking to build some momentum heading into next season.  This is one of those games that can make the Dukies' season and give their fans some optimism heading into 2011.  All those good vibes aside, Duke will lose this game.  They just won't lose by 10 points.  Take the points and the nerds from North Carolina.  Final score is 30-24.  LOCK IT UP

Ohio State @ Iowa - Line is Ohio State -3 - We finally get to pick a home dog and boy do we love this home dog.  If you don't know that the Locksmith has a love affair with this Hawkeye team, then you haven't been paying attention.  We still think that Iowa is a top 5 team based on talent.  They can run, pass, catch, defend, kick, etc.  All those little things that seem to matter on a football field.  Plus, they are a nightmare at home.  If you don't think Ohio State is a bit nervous about having to pay a visit to Kinnick Stadium, then you are mistaken.  Iowa has the talent on the defensive end to bottle up Terrell Pryor and make him have to beat them through the air - not what the Buckeyes are hoping for.  Most importantly, I'm putting my faith in the belief that Iowa will simply want this game more than OSU and that the fans will add just enough of an advantage to get it done.  We like Iowa to win this game, as we've been teasing for the past 8 weeks.  Take the points as an added bonus.  Final score is 24-23.  LOCK IT UP

Virginia Tech @ Miami - Line is Va Tech -2 - From what we've seen, most experts like Miami and their new fast, flashy QB in this game.  How soon they forget Jacory Harris and move onto the younger, prettier thing down in South Beach.  Tough to see that coming.  Well, the Locks prefers style over substance.  We'll happily throw the beat-up 40-something convenience store clerk a sympathy lay and turn our nose up at the banging co-ed with a surgically perfected bosom.  No problem.  That's just the way we roll.  And the way that the Hokies roll is to disappoint their fans in the first few games of the season and then close the campaign like a runaway train culminating in a bowl beat down of some overrated PAC-10 school.  Well, the script is being followed again this season.  Va Tech has reeled off 8 straight wins (all but one by at least 16 points) and look like a really good team.  Miami, we just don't trust you.  We're looking forward to Frank Beamer and his boys bringing their talents to South Beach for a beating.  Take the convenience store clerk here and lay the points.  We promise she's more fun.  Final score is 27-17.  LOCK IT UP

Notre Dame vs. Army - Line is ND -9 - Once I learned that the Fighting Irish intended to desecrate the hallowed grounds of Yankee Stadium with their unique brand of stink this weekend, I had a minor meltdown.  If we wanted an overrated team of idiots putting forth an uninspiring athletic performance in the Bronx in November, we would have just asked the Red Sox to come play a baseball game.  And no, we have not gotten over the fact that ND blew our 2010 Lock of the Season to smithereens last week.  We never will.  But what last week's Irish performance does ensure is that they will soil themselves this week.  It is simply inconceivable that they would show up in back-to-back weeks.  They never play up to the challenge against the service academies (note a 35-17 thrashing at the hands of Navy three weeks ago).  That same style of play will give the Suck Squad from South Bend fits again this week.  Could they beat Army?  Sure.  Will they win by two scores?  Not a chance.  Take the points as Army does its best to bring some Yankee Pride to this battle.  We're calling the upset: 24-22 Army.  LOCK IT UP

Two Star Specials:

North Carolina @ North Carolina State - Line is UNC -2.5 - We like this NC State team and we really like their QB.  He can do some impressive things on the field.  The Tar Heel fans have already moved on to basketball and the football team and its band of rotating players has been forgotten.  The Wolfpack fans on the other hand will be out in force looking to beat down their in-state rival.  That's really all we got.  We just know that NC State is a better team, they are playing at home and they are getting points.  Sometimes things are that simple.  Take the points.  Final score is 27-24 NC State.  LOCK IT UP


Illinois vs. Northwestern - Line is Illinois -8 - The week's third neutral site game, this one is being played at Wrigley Field.  The problem is that Wrigley Field is so small that they can only use one of the end zones for the majority of the game.  All drives will head in the same direction regardless of team and/or quarter.  There is a first time for everything, we guess.  In a game with something this ridiculous taking place, the Locks always takes the points.  An oddity is more likely to hurt the favorite is how we assess that situation.  Granted Northwestern lost its excellent QB, Dan Persa, to a TD celebration injury last week.  However, the rest of this team is gritty, they've got momentum from their big win against Iowa and we expect they'll experience more of a home field advantage at Wrigley.  That all adds up to a game in which the Illini will not cover.  Take the 8 points here.  Final score is 30-27.  LOCK IT UP

One Star Special:

Florida State @ Maryland - Line is FSU -3.5 - Another line that has moved quite a bit this week.  It started at 5.5 in favor of the Seminoles.  We'll happily go to battle against the Idiot Public here and enjoy the extra two bonus points for the FSU cover.  Maryland is the feel-good story of the ACC season playing well above their talent level all year.  But they really haven't beaten a single respectable team all season.  We know that Christian Ponder has one monster game in him this season and this seems as good as any for that to happen.  Add to that the fact that the athleticism on the Seminoles side of the ball is so far superior to that on the Terrapins side and this one seems pretty straightforward.  Give me FSU and I'll give you the points.  Final score is 33-21.  LOCK IT UP   

Thank God There's An NFL Game Tonight - Going Back to College is Killing Me

Four Star Special:

Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins - Line is Dolphins -1.5 - The Locks really likes this game a lot from a gambling perspective.  For one, we see a lot of experts sticking with Miami and we always like it when we differ from the experts.  A few things to consider about tonight's game.  The Dolphins will have a difficult time running either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams against the once again stout Bears D.  Chicago bottled up Adrian Peterson last week and Ronnie/Ricky ain't no ADP.  That means that in order to move the ball, the Fins will need Tyler Thigpen (former late season fantasy hero with the Chiefs) to throw the ball efficiently and effectively.  Considering he's a third-string QB on a team that doesn't even like its first-string QB and considering that this is a short week and he's had very few days to work with the starters, the Locks is not expecting a Montana-esque performance from Thigpen.  In fact, we're not even expecting something Dilfer-esque.  Miami will have trouble scoring unless they do it on defense or special teams.  As for the Bears, the offensive line has been making modest improvements over the beginning of the year when Jay Cutler spent a majority of the time lounging on the ground.  It's amazing how much more effective that prep-school punk look-a-like is when he has some time to throw.  He won't be bringing back memories of Dan Marino tonight either, but he'll be able to move Da Bears down the field.  We think this thing plays out as a low-scoring game but one in which the Bears steal a game on the road.  We'll take the dog and the 1.5 points.  Final score is 20-16, Da Bears.  LOCK IT UP

Oh That Wacky MAC

We got busted again last night.  This time by a team that won despite passing for only 78 yards.  Seriously, a team scored 31 points, busted an 8.5 point spread and won outright with a QB named Boo who threw for 78 yards.  A QB Named Boo Who Threw sounds like a god-damn Dr. Seuss book except we're not laughing.  Trying to pick games in the MAC is like trying to pick games in the NFL this season.  What you learn one week only serves to ensure that you lose your bets the next week.  Nothing continues from week to week so you almost do yourself a disservice by watching and scouting football.  Every game is its own entity with nothing from the past indicating its outcome in any way.  Oh Joy.  What a way to make money.  Well, we at the Locks are not quitters.  We're going to keep on plugging along knowing that there is some sort of winning streak out there to be had.

Two Star Special:

Bowling Green @ Toledo - Line is Toledo -10 - This is a major, major rivalry so despite the fact that Bowling Green (them of the bad bowling jokes last week) is suffering through a miserable 2-8 season the Falcons will show up for this game.  Less than 30 miles separates these schools and they play their annual game under the banner of the "Glass Bowl."  The Falcons have taken the past three Glass Bowls and played Miami of Ohio very tight last week (losing on a last second FG).  The Rockets of Toledo look like the better team in nearly every facet of the game but we've seen where those credentials have gotten other favored teams this year.  With a rivalry that means so much to players on bad teams, we're left to expect a close game marked by extraordinary effort.  In those cases, we'll take the points and hope for the best.  Final score is 33-27.  LOCK IT UP

MAC Attack - Title Game Shot on Line in Philly

Three-Star Special:

Ohio @ Temple - Line is Temple -8.5 - We've got two 5-1 MAC teams squaring off tonight for the right to play in the conference championship game.  Both teams have been rolling of late (6 straight wins for Ohio and 4 consecutive Ws for Temple).  Accordingly, you'd expect the line on this game to be slim.  Well, it's about as slim as Oprah's precious little friend Precious. 

 
That certainly raised some eyebrows over at Locks' headquarters.  We know that Temple is on the rebound this year.  Believe it or not they are a top 10 defense nationally in terms of points surrendered.  Plus, Bill Cosby really likes Temple so that counts for something.  But should they really be nearly a 9 point favorite?  Well consider this, Ohio's starting QB suffered a concussion this week.  No, he didn't take a big hit in practice.  He didn't get into a car accident.  He didn't even get hit over the head with a serving tray, Locks-style.  Nope, this dimwit got clocked outside a bar.  Doesn't sound like he can take a punch.  On top of that, Ohio's backup QB is hurting as well and probably shouldn't play.  However, the Bobcats really want to redshirt their third-string QB and would forfeit that option if he were to play tonight.  So a team without a QB - at least one that the team wants on the field - on the road vs. a top 10 defense that Bill Cosby loves.  That is enough for me.  We'll give the QB-less Bobcats 8.5 points and challenge them to compete.  Temple rides to glory and gets a bunch of Jello Pudding as a reward.  Final score is 27-10.  LOCK IT UP

We Come to You, Hat in Hand

The Locksmith has very little to say at the moment.  He has been painfully and publicly humiliated at the hands of the Utah Utes.  Nice job never getting to South Bend you Mormon ladies.  Never again will the Locks waste a word on you.  You're banned.  With a heavy heart, I present your NFL picks sans commentary.

Five Star Special:

Vikings -1.5 over Bears

Four Star Specials:

Rams +6 over Niners
Bucs -7 over Panthers
Colts -7 over Bengals
Lions +2 over Bills

Three Star Specials:

Chiefs -1 over Broncos
Titans (Pk) over Dolphins
Patriots +5 over Steelers

Two Star Specials:

Jets -3.5 over Browns
Jaguars -1.5 over Texans
Cardinals -3.5 over Seahawks 
Redskins +3.5 over Eagles

One Star Special:

Cowboys +13.5 over Giants

College Football Lock of the Season

It's been a long and sometime troubling college football season.  We've had some ups and downs together but those have all been leading us to this moment of shared excellence.  That's right it is time for the Locks to unveil the "Locksmith's Absolute Lock of 2010 in College Football."  Whatever extra scratch you have laying around, even if it's just a few coins in the couch, put it on the line tomorrow:

Five Star Special: LOCKSMITH'S CFL ABSOLUTE LOCK OF 2010

Utah @ Notre Dame - Line is Utah -5.5 - When discussing the disgusting nature of the Fighting Irish's season to date with Notre Dame alum Kevin Pollock, we both agreed that this was a game that held very bad things for ND.  Keep in mind, this was before we knew the line of this game.  I told KP (that is what we call Kevin) about how I expected Utah to be in a miserable mood following last week's trouncing by TCU.  I told him that I expected the Utes' offense to be looking to go bonkers this week and we agreed that while ND might have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, their defense is atrocious.  Any team with playmakers, a bit of speed and an aggressive play caller can have their way with ND.  KP in turn told me just how utterly ridiculous and overmatched Notre Dame's new starting QB looks - remember that Dayne Crist is on the shelf for the season.  In the midst of these conversations, we generally speculated what the line for this game might be.  In my head, I settled on a realistic line being in the 14-17 point range with Utah as a strong favorite.  Even with that context, I was prepared to lay the wood on this game.  Much to my surprise, the actual line is only 5.5 points and I feel incredibly giddy about this.  It is like all the bank employees went to launch and left the vault open.  People are clearly overreacting to the Utah/TCU game last weekend.  That game told us much more about TCU (maybe the overall best team in the country) than it did about Utah (still a remarkably talented team that probably finishes the season in the top 12).  Utah is going to be eager to set the record straight in South Bend and there really is little that ND can do about it.  This is the Lock of the season, bar none.  Take Utah, give the points and tell everyone you love the Locksmith.  Final score is 45-27.  LOCK IT UP

Four Star Specials:

Boise State @ Idaho - Line is Boise St -34.5 - Ride the wave of the Theorem and ride it well.  Idaho lost last week at home to Nevada last week by 46.  Nevada is good but they're no Boise State.  With TCU's statement last week, the Broncos know that they need style points now more than ever.  Look for them to thoroughly dominate this game on both sides of the ball.  Kellen Moore might throw for another 500 yards.  Lay the points (we know it is a lot of em) with supreme confidence.  Final score is 59-13.  LOCK IT UP

Stanford @ Arizona State - Line is Stanford -5 - The Cardinal is quietly playing some of the best football in the country.  We learned our lesson betting against them last week as they dismantled a very formidable Arizona team.  The Sun Devils are not as formidable as their in-state rival.  We're really starting to believe that backing any team that is led by Andrew Luck is a very good idea.  The guys is just that good.  Plus, Stanford's defense is quietly excellent.  The only thing that can sidetrack the Cardinal is getting caught looking ahead to next week's annual reprise of the Big Game.  We're not counting on it.  Lay the 5 points.  This one is easy, peasy, Japanesey.  Final score is 43-27.  LOCK IT UP

Three Star Specials:

South Carolina @ Florida - Line is Florida -6.5 - We're going to the well once against with the Cocks, the Gamecocks, that is.  We'll chalk up last week's abysmal performance to them looking ahead to this tilt with arch nemesis Florida.  The winner of this game plays for the SEC championship and that is something Steve Spurrier has been dreaming about since coming to SC.  The Cocks will be aroused for this battle.  Combine that with the fact that Florida is a bit down this year and more than a little schizophrenic and this is Spurrier's best chance to reach his goal.  South Carolina with use the battering ram otherwise known as Mr. Marcus Lattimore to control field position and time of possession.  This will be a close hard fought battle but we like SC to not only cover, but win outright.  If you're feeling sassy, bet SC to win (+215).  Otherwise, take the 6.5 points.  Final score is 27-24.  LOCK IT UP

Kansas State @ Missouri - Line is Missouri -13.5 - The Locks views the Missouri Tigers as a team that peeked a bit too early this college season.  They had a magical run early on and then ran into the buzz saw that is the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They followed that loss with a defeat at the hands of middling Texas Tech.  With momentum working against the Tigers, KSU is not a team they want to face.  Do you realize that the Wildcats handily defeated Texas last week and only threw the ball 4 times?  That is not a typo.  They ran 54 plays and 50 of them were runs.  Newsflash: this team can run the ball.  By doing so, they shorten games and, more often than not, keep them close.  So when we see a team with those credentials being given nearly 2 TDs, we take notice.  This line is too big: plain and simple.  Take the points and kick the Tigers while they're down.  Final score is 29-25.  LOCK IT UP

Two Star Specials:

Oregon @ California - Line is Oregon -20 - Everyone is going crazy over Cal because they are 4-0 at home this season.  However, they haven't played a ranked team at home all year and they certainly haven't played a team with the Ducks' talent at all.  The great thing about Oregon is you just can't install a line that is too big for these guys to cover.  That is largely a testament to the team's endurance.  They practice harder than most teams play and this really demonstrates itself in the second halves of its games.  They just run away from teams.  So even if this is a one TD game at the half (which it will likely not be) this line will still get covered.  Oregon is just so damned impressive to watch on offense.  It covers up what could be some damaging holes on the defensive side of the ball.  However, when you average 54 points a game, defense isn't really that big of an issue.  Take Oregon to cover the 20.  Final score is 58-31.  LOCK IT UP

Oklahoma State @ Texas - Line is Oklahoma State -5 - Texas is still getting by on pure reputation.  There is no other way to explain this line.  No team this side of Oregon does what it wants on offense as easily and beautifully as Oklahoma State.  If you haven't seen OSU's Justin Blackmon play yet, start watching.  You're going to want him on your NFL fantasy team pretty darn soon.  Aside from being played in Austin, we can't think of one positive thing to say for the Longhorns.  Lay the points and take the Cowboys.  Final score is 41-27.  LOCK IT UP

One Star Special: 

Mississippi State @ Alabama - Line is Bama -13.5 - Call this a hunch game.  We just don't think that Bama is playing well enough right now to cover lines this big against solid football teams.  The Bulldogs do two things very well: run the ball and play defense.  That combination will always keep you in football games (take note that only one time this year has Mississippi State been beaten by more than a FG).  Add to that the fact that Trent Richardson is questionable for Bama and we think this turns into a low scoring boxing match.  13.5 is just too many points here.  Take the Bulldogs to bust that spread.  Final score is a 23-17 Crimson Tide victory.  LOCK IT UP

The Return of Big Boy Football on Thursday Night

We must be close to Thanksgiving as we are about to reignite the great NFL Network debate.  The decision to pay a few extra bucks per month to the old cable company in order to view just 1 extra football game each week.  Well, for gamblers and fantasy football freaks, this is a no-brainer.  Bring on the NFL Network and bring on some more Thursday night supplemental income.  We have both NFL and college for your enjoyment:

NFL

Three-Star Special: 

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons - Line is Falcons -1 - There are so many similarities between these two teams in what is essentially a pick em of a game.  I won't waste time with the Flacco vs. Ryan story that  is giving Cam Newton a run for his headline money.  We're more interested in two defenses that are both tough upfront and maybe a bit too soft in the middle (though the Ravens have gotten that soft label during the annual Ed Reed hiatus - Mr. Reed is back and soft might be getting shown the door).  We're also interested in two consensus top 5 RBs who might not have done as much thus far as fans and fantasy owners expected.

From a handicapping standpoint, a few advantages in our eyes tip the scales in Baltimore's favor.  First, Roddy White is somewhere less than 100% physically.  Even if he is 90% - which can be debated - that is a big negative for Atlanta.  They need White to stretch the field and command significant secondary attention to open things up for Michael Turner.  Another thing we like for Baltimore is that this is a prime-time game and Ray Lewis and his posse never disappoint on this stage.  They get up big (just ask the Jets in Week 1) for big games and they play big in big games.  We think that they can rattle Matty Ice a bit, clog up Turner's running lanes and intimidate some Falcon receivers with a few big hits.  On the other side of the ball, we think that Ray Rice is poised to breakout and finish this season on a tear.  While he might not have tremendous success on the ground tonight.  Look for him to be a major disruptive force in the passing game - and as the game progresses - the screens and check downs to Rice will only open things up for a timely strike or two down the field to Drs. Boldin and Mason.  We like Joe Flacco to make enough plays in this game for fans to start to move him up their mental list of quality NFL QBs.

The one major obstacle for the Ravens would appear to be the game's location and Ryan's history of success in Atlanta.  We're willing to throw that out the window here.  This game will be decided on the field by two very good, very physical teams.  The Ravens will not be impacted by a loud crowd.  With all of that knowledge transferred to your brains, you're in position to take Baltimore and 1 charity point and make some money.  We think the Ravens win this one outright 24-20.  LOCK IT UP

College

Four-Star Special:

Pittsburgh @ Connecticut - Line is -6 - UConn is a certifiable mess.  I could care less that they beat West Virginia at home last Friday to bust the Locksmith.  They are an utter mess.  They're on to about their 5th QB this season and can't do very much of anything on offense.  Sure they have a scrappy defense and can give the Panthers fits from time to time.  Don't believe the hype. 

Pittsburgh is hitting its stride.  They've won three straight games in very convincing fashion and have a stranglehold on first place in the Big East (not that that is too impressive a feat this season).  The Panthers have a legitimate big time RB, they have a maturing QB who is finally starting to play with confidence and getting results, they have a solid defense and they have a coach that looks a lot like my friend John Yannuzzi (an advantage not to be overlooked). 

It's unfortunate that the Big East will put a team into a BCS bowl this season - it just doesn't seem fair.  But knowing that they will likely be that team, we expect Pittsburgh to use this nationally televised game to make some sort of statement.  Break Rule #1 and take the road favorite here.  Lay 6 points to UConn.  Final score is 27-13.  LOCK IT UP

Sometimes When I Wake Up, Mr. McCracken is Already At My House

Two Star Special:

Miami (Ohio) @ Bowling Green - Line is Miami -3 - Two schools that nobody knows much about.  Not because it is hard to get the information but more because people don't want the information.  Count us in the group of not wanting the information.  But then a Wednesday night in November rolls around and this is the only game in town.  Boy it was tough to write that last sentence.  Agonizing even.  Well, let's get over ourselves and offer a glimpse of the future for the Miami and BG fans out there.  Bowling Green is one of the worst football teams in the country.  Trust us, we looked it up.  Miami is wildly mediocre and that might be overrating them a bit.  Neither team can run the ball and neither scores a bunch of points.  Miami is actually somewhat near the top of the conference standings while the old BG is a cellar dweller.  So much to analyze - so little time.

Well let's put it this way.  If this game was being held on really slick wooden lanes with heavy three-holed balls, then we'd get all over Bowling Green.  Since it's not, we look for Miami to pull a "Big Ern McCracken" and sack the "turkeys" from BG with the help of a number of impressive passing "strikes" down the field.  Those were some of the worst bowling references ever written with one rubber hand.  I think I just knocked something loose.  Lay the points and "roll" with Miami.  Final score is 27-21.  LOCK IT UP

Tuesday's with Toledo - The Feel Good Hit of the Year!

Three Star Special:

Toledo @ Northern Illinois - Line is NIU -11.5 - Both these teams come into this game rolling and both have a 5-0 record in conference.  This game is for sole possession of first place in West division of the Mid-American conference - in case you didn't know that already.  On paper, the Northern Illinois Huskies are the better team.  They rush the ball effectively and play defense.  They also turn the ball over considerably less than the Toledo Rockets.  However, you know how much the Locksmith loves taking the points in these nationally televised games with big implications.   The little guy also shows up big knowing that this is his season's Super Bowl.  Toledo is riding high following a 42-7 thrashing of Eastern Michigan.  We think they carry enough momentum into this game and make enough impact plays (forcing turnovers, big special team returns, etc.) to keep this thing close throughout.  We'll gladly take the 11.5 points and climb aboard the Rockets for the evening.  Final score is 26-22.  LOCK IT UP

Turn Back the Clock Night

In honor of Day Lights Savings Time and the turning back of the clocks, we remember some of our favorite old school NFL players in this week's picks:

Five Star Special:

San Diego Chargers -3 over Houston Texans - The original Kellen Winslow takes down David Carr.

Four Star Specials:

Miami Dolphins -5 over Baltimore Ravens - AJ Duhe rolls over Trent Dilfer

New York Giants -7 over Seattle Seahawks - Jim Burt brings down Curt Warner

Kansas City Chiefs +1 over Oakland Raiders - Christian Okoye rumbles over Jay Schroeder


Three Star Specials:

Chicago Bears -3 over Buffalo Bills - Gary Fencik dominates Darryl Talley

Indianapolis Colts +3 over Philadelphia Eagles - Jack Trudeau runs over Seth Joyner

Carolina Panthers +6.5 over New Orleans Saints - Tim Biakabutuka creams Ricky Jackson

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 over Cincinnati Bengals - Kordell Stewart eliminates Icky Woods

Two Star Specials:

Detroit Lions +4 over New York Jets - Chris Spielmen sacks Richard Todd

Minnesota Vikings -7.5 over Arizona Cardinals - Chris Carter defeats Jake "The Snake" Plummer

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 over Atlanta Falcons - James Wilder trounces Andre Rison

Cleveland Browns +4 over New England Patriots - Kevin Mack steamrolls Irving Fryar

Green Bay Packers -7 over Dallas Cowboys - Don Majkowski leads the way over Danny White

The College Football Roll is Underway - Get On Board or Get Run Over

We're combining our Friday night pick (UCF vs. Houston) with our nine Saturday games.  We're on a bit of a mini-roll Locks-style.  We're looking to keep it going.

Friday Night Game:

Three Star Special:


Central Florida @ Houston - Line is UCF -2 - Houston is on to its third string QB, who is doing surprisingly well.  That just goes to show that you can plug anyone with an arm into the Cougars' system and he'll do just fine.  However, UCF represents the toughest defensive test that Houston will face in some time.  This is a big game in terms of jockeying for conference supremacy.  A W gives Central Florida the inside track to the regular season championship.  Both teams come in hot but UCF has been a monster against the spread all year winning its last 6 for a total ATS record of 6-1.  It's easy to get a bit nervous about a road favorite but 2 points is not tough to cover if you're the better team.  We think UCF is the better team.  Lay the points and take the favorite.  Final score is 45-35.  LOCK IT UP

Saturday Games:

Five Star Special:

Texas Christian University @ Utah - Line is TCU -4.5 -This might just be the game of the week pitting two top 5 teams against each other.  More importantly, the loser of this game falls in the rankings and is no longer in the national championship discussion.  We've liked what we've seen out of TCU every single week this season.  This is a fast and punishing defense - which will be needed to slow down the high-powered Utes.  This is also a fast and athletic offense.  Don't be fooled, TCU is a top 5 team on talent alone.  The Locks' can't say the same for Utah.  The Utes are very good and they're playing at home.  That said, we think that TCU's defense will somewhat control what Utah can do with the ball.  And we don't see the Utes being able to do too much to disrupt Horned Frogs' precise, potent offense.  This will be an entertaining game to watch.  TCU will be the fighter left standing at the end and its wounds won't be all that noticeable.  Lay the points and roll with TCU.  Final score is 37-23.  LOCK IT UP

Four Star Specials:

Alabama @ LSU - Line is Bama -6.5 - LSU was finally somewhat exposed a few weeks ago by Auburn.  The defense has the ability to look dominating but a very good running team can find success against the Tigers.  If there is something that Bama does well, it is running the ball.  They might just have the two best RBs in the country (sorry Mr. James of Oregon).  If the Tide is able to find success on the ground, LSU will be in trouble.  That is largely due to the fact that the Tigers will not be able to throw up all that many points of their own.  If they don't keep this game in the teens, they're fixing to be blown out.  Mr. Jefferson and the rest of the "Moving On Up" crew just don't have the offensive power to hang with Nick Saban's posse.  The game will stay close for a bit because it is being played in the Swamp and LSU views Saban on par with Satan.  That said, by the time the fourth quarter rolls around and Mr. Ingram and Mr. Richardson are breaking down a tired LSU front seven, the cover will be taken care of.  Let the Tide carry you toward the money.  Lay the points.  Final score is 27-13.  LOCK IT UP

Arizona @ Stanford - Line is Stanford -9 - We really like this Stanford team and have ridden them to some nice victories this season (including last week's pasting of Washington).  However, the Wildcats are a dynamic team in their own right.  They have two QBs both playing at a high level (assuming Nick Foles finds his way back on the field this week).  They are also loaded with athletes (on both sides of the ball) who make at least a few dynamic plays each week.  This won't be an easy trip to Palo Alto, but we think the Cats make it a game.  The line suggests otherwise and that's why we're voting underdog in this contest.  Dr. Luck does enough to pull the win out for the home team but Arizona keeps it close.  Take the points.  Final score is 34-30.  LOCK IT UP

Three Star Specials:

Northwestern @ Penn State - Line is Penn St -6 - We're taking the Hot Tub Time Machine back to 2009 for this game.  Last season, the Northwestern Cats made us money week in and week out busting spreads as an undervalued underdog.  During that same campaign, the nitz-freak Lions made us money week in and week out by failing to cover spreads as an overvalued favorite.  The Locksmith here decrees that little has changed other than the calendar.  Penn State is still getting point spreads based on a reputation that dates by to Blair Thomas and Kerry Collins.  Northwestern continues to get overlooked by Vegas.  That is fine with us - it's called a money tree.  In fact, if you're feeling saucy, you could really make some coin by betting Northwestern to win outright.  We wouldn't be surprised if it happens.  For the sake of the Locks, we'll keep it simple and just take the points.  Final score is 24-23 (Northwestern).  LOCK IT UP 

Arkansas @ South Carolina - Line is South Carolina -4.5  This should be a good ole-fashioned SEC brawl down in South Carolina.  We're giving the Gamecocks the edge in a few critical areas.  First, home field advantage.  The home team has won each of the last three meetings by more than ten points.  Second, defense.  The Cocks have a physical defense giving up less than 20 points a game.  Third, Marcus Lattimore.  South Carolina's freshman running back is a load to deal with.  He's finally back to full strength and should have no problem punishing the Razorbacks' defense.  Arkansas can throw the ball and score points so this should be an interesting contrast in styles.  However, for the three critical reasons we've outlined, the pick here is South Carolina to cover.  Final score is 33-24.  LOCK IT UP

Baylor @ Oklahoma State - Line is Oklahoma State -8.5 - Baylor has been running through a magical season thus far - loudly punctuated with a beating of in-state rival Texas last week.  The team is one of the country's feel good stories.  Well it was one of the country's feel good stories.  The Locks' says that there would be anything that feels good about Baylor after the thrashing the receive at the hands of Oklahoma State this weekend.  This is no indictment of Baylor.  They have a nice little football team that has beat up on the likes of Kansas State, Colorado and Rice.  However, in their one showdown with a solid squad (TCU) they got drubbed 45-10.  This more a proclamation about the uncontrollable explosiveness of the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  This team has scored at least 38 points in six of its eight games this season and has hung 65 on its opponents twice.  They are third in the country in passing and get All-World WR Justin Blackmon back this week after a one-week DUI suspension.  In the last four meetings between these teams, the Cowboys are 4-0 and the closest game was 27 points.  Granted this is a different Baylor team but their not different enough to bust this spread.  Give the Baylor Bears 8.5 points and back the Boys.  Final score is 37-28.  LOCK IT UP

Two Star Specials:

Iowa @ Indiana - Line is Iowa -17.5 - We have to be honest, this line did give us pause when we first saw it.  Many road teams in the Big Ten have a tendency to underachieve when playing inferior opponents.  Or maybe its the inferior opponents ramping up the energy at home against bigger conference rivals.  Regardless of the reason, we usually steer clear of big lines supporting Big Ten roadies.  However, we've been driving the Iowa Hawkeye express all year.  Even after tough losses against Arizona and Wisconsin, we continued to sing the praises of the Hawkeyes.  There is just so much to love about this team and it was all on display during last week's white-washing of previously undefeated Michigan State.  Their balanced and precise on offense and stout and intimidating on defense.  They have a dominating offensive line and guys on the defensive line that will be playing on Sunday's in the very near future.  This all does not bode well for the Hoosiers who are 0-4 in the Big Ten including a 30 point loss to the wildly mediocre Illinois.  Sure, some weird things can happen to keep this game close.  In the same way that I could fall off my chair right now and land on several naked women who are rolling in millions of dollars and several kilos of cocaine.  I'm betting on neither of those scenarios.  Lay the points with confidence.  Final score is 35-10.  LOCK IT UP

Oregon State @ UCLA - Line is Oregon State -5 - Here's another example of old habits dying hard.  We love to bet against UCLA - no matter how many times they burn us.  We love to bet on Oregon State - they are a shifty bunch of ballers.  The Beavers are five points better than UCLA and its water pistol offense, even without one of the Rodgers brothers.  We'd like this game more if it were being played in Corvallis but location shouldn't really matter too much here.  Oregon State has played one of the country's toughest schedules and has acquitted itself quite well along the way.  Give the Bruins those 5 points - they won't know what to do with them.  Final score is 30-20.  LOCK IT UP

One Star Special:

Hawaii @ Boise State - Line is Boise State -21 - We went back and forth on this game for most of the day.  We know that sounds ridiculous since we have coined the term "Boise State Theorem" in response to the Broncos dominance and disdain for the point spread.  That is just how much this Hawaii team's passing attack concerns us.  The Warriors will score points in this game and that always makes covering a big number difficult.  That said, the Theorem lives on.  BSU knows that they are in a dog-fight for respect.  Whoever wins the TCU-Utah showdown will take another step ahead of Boise State in the ongoing debate about small conference schools and the BCS.  At this point, style points are just as important to Boise as real on-the-field points.  For that reason, combined with the blue turf and the Broncos crowd, we think the Broncos figure this thing out and restore the Theorem to its esteemed position.  Last week's uninspired effort against Louisiana Tech will be a faded memory by Saturday evening.  One thing to keep in mind is that Hawaii is 7-1 ATS this season - there's that doubt creeping back in our mind - only to have the Theorem beat it down.  Lay the points.  Boise State wins 59-35.  LOCK IT UP    

How the Line Can Shock You Stupid and Other Handicapping Lessons

Three Star Special:

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech - Line is disclosed within the prose for dramatic effect - We started breaking this game down in our head before looking at the actual line - this is an exercise the Locks often likes to undertake as it provides a measure of unbiased assessment of each team and the match-up at hand.  That initial analysis had us loving the home Va Tech favorite.  They've been on fire lately.  Blacksburg is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  The Hokies have always fared very well on ESPN on Thursday night.  Va Tech is 6-1 ATS this season and Georgia Tech is a pedestrian 3-4 ATS including a woeful week 2 performance against Kansas that cost the Locksmith some bread (not a recommended way to win favor with the Locks).  All this had the Locksmith beginning to write this column in his head with a massive Hokie bias and proclaiming the favorite an Absolute Lock.

Now keep in mind that Georgia Tech is no pushover.  They run the very unique and often unstoppable triple-option and rack up over 300 yards a game on the ground.  Plus this is a conference game with serious standing implications on the line and the Yellow Jackets did beat the Hokies in last year's showdown.  I considered all of these counter-arguments in favor of Georgia Tech and still felt pretty good about backing the Hokies.  Now comes the big unveil that I've been building toward: All of my analysis was based on my assumption (apparently very foolish) that the line in this game would be in the 4-7 point range with Va Tech favored.  So imagine my utter surprise when I checked said line and Vegas had the Hokies installed as a 13 point favorite.  13 points!  And this has moved down from 14 points, indicating that many out there seem to think the line is too high as well.

Well this new - absolutely critical - piece of data has swung the Locksmith.  Can we envision a scenario in which the Hokies roll Georgia Tech and win by 2 TDs or more?  Sure we can.  Are we willing to bet that is going to happen?  In a big conference rivalry game?  Where the forecast is calling for rain thus increasing the likelihood of freak plays and leveling the field of competition?  No way.

The Locks' is now firmly in the +13 Yellow Jackets' camp.  We see the weather playing into Ga Tech's hands as they rarely, if at all, rely on the passing game.  They'll continue to collect large chunks of yards with their three-headed rushing monster (assuming they hold onto the likely slick pigskin).  Are we calling for a Georgia Tech victory?  While not out of the realm of possibility, we won't go quite that far.  However, this will be a competitive game deep into the fourth quarter and the final margin will be hard pressed to cross over into double digits.

Roll with the out-of-town dog in this showdown.  Final score looks like 33-27.  LOCK IT UP!

Get Behind the Scarlet Ladies

Three Star Special:

Rutgers @ South Florida - Line is USF -10 - Simply put, this line is too big.  This will be a hard-fought low-scoring game between two teams that don't know how to score points with any sort of efficiency.  Add the fact that there is a very good chance of rain in the forecast in Flo-Rida and these passing games might never get going.  Neither team is a star against the spread this year.  In these cases, where both teams are marginal and hard to differentiate, the Locks likes to back the dog - especially if the spread is in double-digits.  Due to our long-term affiliation with Dr. Mark Borton of lovely Westfield, NJ, we also have an affinity for the Scarlet Ladies.  That is another plus for those little red ruffians.  Most importantly, we are looking to get our college three star special record back to some level of respectability.  It starts tonight with the nerds from New Brunswick.  Take Rutgers +10.  Final score is 20-17.  LOCK IT UP

Kicking It Into Overdrive - Games to Bet Every Night

It's that time of the season when we have a football game to bet on every night of the week.  It is also that time of the season when the Locksmith has some serious work to do to salvage a successful season.  What do these facts lead us to?  That's right, the handicapping of a Tuesday night game between Middle Tennessee State and Arkansas State.  Who cares if you don't know who these teams are, a winning wager is a winning wager:

Two Star Special:

Middle Tennessee State @ Arkansas State - Line is MTSU -2 - This is a battle between two teams in the powerhouse Sun Belt conference.  A win by MTSU puts them in a tie for first place, whereas an Arkansas State victory moves them toward the top of the conference standings as well.  Certainly there is enough to play for on both sides this evening.  Arkansas State is a home dog which the Locks typically likes in these ESPN/ESPN2 weeknight games.  Plus, Arkansas State is an impressive 6-2 against the spread this season.  However, the stat that we're hanging our hat on is the fact that the favorite has covered the spread convincingly (by more than 10 points) in each of the last four meetings between these teams (regardless of whether that favorite was the home or road team).  We also like the fact that MTSU is much more balanced on offense than Arkansas State and is much more successful at establishing the running game.  We're going to take the favorite to cover yet again in this Sun Belt battle.  We love us some Middle Tennessee State University.  Final score is 30-17.  LOCK IT UP