Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech - Line is disclosed within the prose for dramatic effect - We started breaking this game down in our head before looking at the actual line - this is an exercise the Locks often likes to undertake as it provides a measure of unbiased assessment of each team and the match-up at hand. That initial analysis had us loving the home Va Tech favorite. They've been on fire lately. Blacksburg is one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Hokies have always fared very well on ESPN on Thursday night. Va Tech is 6-1 ATS this season and Georgia Tech is a pedestrian 3-4 ATS including a woeful week 2 performance against Kansas that cost the Locksmith some bread (not a recommended way to win favor with the Locks). All this had the Locksmith beginning to write this column in his head with a massive Hokie bias and proclaiming the favorite an Absolute Lock.
Now keep in mind that Georgia Tech is no pushover. They run the very unique and often unstoppable triple-option and rack up over 300 yards a game on the ground. Plus this is a conference game with serious standing implications on the line and the Yellow Jackets did beat the Hokies in last year's showdown. I considered all of these counter-arguments in favor of Georgia Tech and still felt pretty good about backing the Hokies. Now comes the big unveil that I've been building toward: All of my analysis was based on my assumption (apparently very foolish) that the line in this game would be in the 4-7 point range with Va Tech favored. So imagine my utter surprise when I checked said line and Vegas had the Hokies installed as a 13 point favorite. 13 points! And this has moved down from 14 points, indicating that many out there seem to think the line is too high as well.
Well this new - absolutely critical - piece of data has swung the Locksmith. Can we envision a scenario in which the Hokies roll Georgia Tech and win by 2 TDs or more? Sure we can. Are we willing to bet that is going to happen? In a big conference rivalry game? Where the forecast is calling for rain thus increasing the likelihood of freak plays and leveling the field of competition? No way.
The Locks' is now firmly in the +13 Yellow Jackets' camp. We see the weather playing into Ga Tech's hands as they rarely, if at all, rely on the passing game. They'll continue to collect large chunks of yards with their three-headed rushing monster (assuming they hold onto the likely slick pigskin). Are we calling for a Georgia Tech victory? While not out of the realm of possibility, we won't go quite that far. However, this will be a competitive game deep into the fourth quarter and the final margin will be hard pressed to cross over into double digits.
Roll with the out-of-town dog in this showdown. Final score looks like 33-27. LOCK IT UP!
No comments:
Post a Comment