Five Star Special: LOCKSMITH'S CFL ABSOLUTE LOCK OF 2010
Utah @ Notre Dame - Line is Utah -5.5 - When discussing the disgusting nature of the Fighting Irish's season to date with Notre Dame alum Kevin Pollock, we both agreed that this was a game that held very bad things for ND. Keep in mind, this was before we knew the line of this game. I told KP (that is what we call Kevin) about how I expected Utah to be in a miserable mood following last week's trouncing by TCU. I told him that I expected the Utes' offense to be looking to go bonkers this week and we agreed that while ND might have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, their defense is atrocious. Any team with playmakers, a bit of speed and an aggressive play caller can have their way with ND. KP in turn told me just how utterly ridiculous and overmatched Notre Dame's new starting QB looks - remember that Dayne Crist is on the shelf for the season. In the midst of these conversations, we generally speculated what the line for this game might be. In my head, I settled on a realistic line being in the 14-17 point range with Utah as a strong favorite. Even with that context, I was prepared to lay the wood on this game. Much to my surprise, the actual line is only 5.5 points and I feel incredibly giddy about this. It is like all the bank employees went to launch and left the vault open. People are clearly overreacting to the Utah/TCU game last weekend. That game told us much more about TCU (maybe the overall best team in the country) than it did about Utah (still a remarkably talented team that probably finishes the season in the top 12). Utah is going to be eager to set the record straight in South Bend and there really is little that ND can do about it. This is the Lock of the season, bar none. Take Utah, give the points and tell everyone you love the Locksmith. Final score is 45-27. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Boise State @ Idaho - Line is Boise St -34.5 - Ride the wave of the Theorem and ride it well. Idaho lost last week at home to Nevada last week by 46. Nevada is good but they're no Boise State. With TCU's statement last week, the Broncos know that they need style points now more than ever. Look for them to thoroughly dominate this game on both sides of the ball. Kellen Moore might throw for another 500 yards. Lay the points (we know it is a lot of em) with supreme confidence. Final score is 59-13. LOCK IT UP
Stanford @ Arizona State - Line is Stanford -5 - The Cardinal is quietly playing some of the best football in the country. We learned our lesson betting against them last week as they dismantled a very formidable Arizona team. The Sun Devils are not as formidable as their in-state rival. We're really starting to believe that backing any team that is led by Andrew Luck is a very good idea. The guys is just that good. Plus, Stanford's defense is quietly excellent. The only thing that can sidetrack the Cardinal is getting caught looking ahead to next week's annual reprise of the Big Game. We're not counting on it. Lay the 5 points. This one is easy, peasy, Japanesey. Final score is 43-27. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
South Carolina @ Florida - Line is Florida -6.5 - We're going to the well once against with the Cocks, the Gamecocks, that is. We'll chalk up last week's abysmal performance to them looking ahead to this tilt with arch nemesis Florida. The winner of this game plays for the SEC championship and that is something Steve Spurrier has been dreaming about since coming to SC. The Cocks will be aroused for this battle. Combine that with the fact that Florida is a bit down this year and more than a little schizophrenic and this is Spurrier's best chance to reach his goal. South Carolina with use the battering ram otherwise known as Mr. Marcus Lattimore to control field position and time of possession. This will be a close hard fought battle but we like SC to not only cover, but win outright. If you're feeling sassy, bet SC to win (+215). Otherwise, take the 6.5 points. Final score is 27-24. LOCK IT UP
Kansas State @ Missouri - Line is Missouri -13.5 - The Locks views the Missouri Tigers as a team that peeked a bit too early this college season. They had a magical run early on and then ran into the buzz saw that is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. They followed that loss with a defeat at the hands of middling Texas Tech. With momentum working against the Tigers, KSU is not a team they want to face. Do you realize that the Wildcats handily defeated Texas last week and only threw the ball 4 times? That is not a typo. They ran 54 plays and 50 of them were runs. Newsflash: this team can run the ball. By doing so, they shorten games and, more often than not, keep them close. So when we see a team with those credentials being given nearly 2 TDs, we take notice. This line is too big: plain and simple. Take the points and kick the Tigers while they're down. Final score is 29-25. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Oregon @ California - Line is Oregon -20 - Everyone is going crazy over Cal because they are 4-0 at home this season. However, they haven't played a ranked team at home all year and they certainly haven't played a team with the Ducks' talent at all. The great thing about Oregon is you just can't install a line that is too big for these guys to cover. That is largely a testament to the team's endurance. They practice harder than most teams play and this really demonstrates itself in the second halves of its games. They just run away from teams. So even if this is a one TD game at the half (which it will likely not be) this line will still get covered. Oregon is just so damned impressive to watch on offense. It covers up what could be some damaging holes on the defensive side of the ball. However, when you average 54 points a game, defense isn't really that big of an issue. Take Oregon to cover the 20. Final score is 58-31. LOCK IT UP
Oklahoma State @ Texas - Line is Oklahoma State -5 - Texas is still getting by on pure reputation. There is no other way to explain this line. No team this side of Oregon does what it wants on offense as easily and beautifully as Oklahoma State. If you haven't seen OSU's Justin Blackmon play yet, start watching. You're going to want him on your NFL fantasy team pretty darn soon. Aside from being played in Austin, we can't think of one positive thing to say for the Longhorns. Lay the points and take the Cowboys. Final score is 41-27. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Mississippi State @ Alabama - Line is Bama -13.5 - Call this a hunch game. We just don't think that Bama is playing well enough right now to cover lines this big against solid football teams. The Bulldogs do two things very well: run the ball and play defense. That combination will always keep you in football games (take note that only one time this year has Mississippi State been beaten by more than a FG). Add to that the fact that Trent Richardson is questionable for Bama and we think this turns into a low scoring boxing match. 13.5 is just too many points here. Take the Bulldogs to bust that spread. Final score is a 23-17 Crimson Tide victory. LOCK IT UP
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