We're combining our Friday night pick (UCF vs. Houston) with our nine Saturday games. We're on a bit of a mini-roll Locks-style. We're looking to keep it going.
Friday Night Game:
Three Star Special:
Central Florida @ Houston - Line is UCF -2 - Houston is on to its third string QB, who is doing surprisingly well. That just goes to show that you can plug anyone with an arm into the Cougars' system and he'll do just fine. However, UCF represents the toughest defensive test that Houston will face in some time. This is a big game in terms of jockeying for conference supremacy. A W gives Central Florida the inside track to the regular season championship. Both teams come in hot but UCF has been a monster against the spread all year winning its last 6 for a total ATS record of 6-1. It's easy to get a bit nervous about a road favorite but 2 points is not tough to cover if you're the better team. We think UCF is the better team. Lay the points and take the favorite. Final score is 45-35. LOCK IT UP
Saturday Games:
Five Star Special:
Texas Christian University @ Utah - Line is TCU -4.5 -This might just be the game of the week pitting two top 5 teams against each other. More importantly, the loser of this game falls in the rankings and is no longer in the national championship discussion. We've liked what we've seen out of TCU every single week this season. This is a fast and punishing defense - which will be needed to slow down the high-powered Utes. This is also a fast and athletic offense. Don't be fooled, TCU is a top 5 team on talent alone. The Locks' can't say the same for Utah. The Utes are very good and they're playing at home. That said, we think that TCU's defense will somewhat control what Utah can do with the ball. And we don't see the Utes being able to do too much to disrupt Horned Frogs' precise, potent offense. This will be an entertaining game to watch. TCU will be the fighter left standing at the end and its wounds won't be all that noticeable. Lay the points and roll with TCU. Final score is 37-23. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Alabama @ LSU - Line is Bama -6.5 - LSU was finally somewhat exposed a few weeks ago by Auburn. The defense has the ability to look dominating but a very good running team can find success against the Tigers. If there is something that Bama does well, it is running the ball. They might just have the two best RBs in the country (sorry Mr. James of Oregon). If the Tide is able to find success on the ground, LSU will be in trouble. That is largely due to the fact that the Tigers will not be able to throw up all that many points of their own. If they don't keep this game in the teens, they're fixing to be blown out. Mr. Jefferson and the rest of the "Moving On Up" crew just don't have the offensive power to hang with Nick Saban's posse. The game will stay close for a bit because it is being played in the Swamp and LSU views Saban on par with Satan. That said, by the time the fourth quarter rolls around and Mr. Ingram and Mr. Richardson are breaking down a tired LSU front seven, the cover will be taken care of. Let the Tide carry you toward the money. Lay the points. Final score is 27-13. LOCK IT UP
Arizona @ Stanford - Line is Stanford -9 - We really like this Stanford team and have ridden them to some nice victories this season (including last week's pasting of Washington). However, the Wildcats are a dynamic team in their own right. They have two QBs both playing at a high level (assuming Nick Foles finds his way back on the field this week). They are also loaded with athletes (on both sides of the ball) who make at least a few dynamic plays each week. This won't be an easy trip to Palo Alto, but we think the Cats make it a game. The line suggests otherwise and that's why we're voting underdog in this contest. Dr. Luck does enough to pull the win out for the home team but Arizona keeps it close. Take the points. Final score is 34-30. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Northwestern @ Penn State - Line is Penn St -6 - We're taking the Hot Tub Time Machine back to 2009 for this game. Last season, the Northwestern Cats made us money week in and week out busting spreads as an undervalued underdog. During that same campaign, the nitz-freak Lions made us money week in and week out by failing to cover spreads as an overvalued favorite. The Locksmith here decrees that little has changed other than the calendar. Penn State is still getting point spreads based on a reputation that dates by to Blair Thomas and Kerry Collins. Northwestern continues to get overlooked by Vegas. That is fine with us - it's called a money tree. In fact, if you're feeling saucy, you could really make some coin by betting Northwestern to win outright. We wouldn't be surprised if it happens. For the sake of the Locks, we'll keep it simple and just take the points. Final score is 24-23 (Northwestern). LOCK IT UP
Arkansas @ South Carolina - Line is South Carolina -4.5 This should be a good ole-fashioned SEC brawl down in South Carolina. We're giving the Gamecocks the edge in a few critical areas. First, home field advantage. The home team has won each of the last three meetings by more than ten points. Second, defense. The Cocks have a physical defense giving up less than 20 points a game. Third, Marcus Lattimore. South Carolina's freshman running back is a load to deal with. He's finally back to full strength and should have no problem punishing the Razorbacks' defense. Arkansas can throw the ball and score points so this should be an interesting contrast in styles. However, for the three critical reasons we've outlined, the pick here is South Carolina to cover. Final score is 33-24. LOCK IT UP
Baylor @ Oklahoma State - Line is Oklahoma State -8.5 - Baylor has been running through a magical season thus far - loudly punctuated with a beating of in-state rival Texas last week. The team is one of the country's feel good stories. Well it was one of the country's feel good stories. The Locks' says that there would be anything that feels good about Baylor after the thrashing the receive at the hands of Oklahoma State this weekend. This is no indictment of Baylor. They have a nice little football team that has beat up on the likes of Kansas State, Colorado and Rice. However, in their one showdown with a solid squad (TCU) they got drubbed 45-10. This more a proclamation about the uncontrollable explosiveness of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. This team has scored at least 38 points in six of its eight games this season and has hung 65 on its opponents twice. They are third in the country in passing and get All-World WR Justin Blackmon back this week after a one-week DUI suspension. In the last four meetings between these teams, the Cowboys are 4-0 and the closest game was 27 points. Granted this is a different Baylor team but their not different enough to bust this spread. Give the Baylor Bears 8.5 points and back the Boys. Final score is 37-28. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Iowa @ Indiana - Line is Iowa -17.5 - We have to be honest, this line did give us pause when we first saw it. Many road teams in the Big Ten have a tendency to underachieve when playing inferior opponents. Or maybe its the inferior opponents ramping up the energy at home against bigger conference rivals. Regardless of the reason, we usually steer clear of big lines supporting Big Ten roadies. However, we've been driving the Iowa Hawkeye express all year. Even after tough losses against Arizona and Wisconsin, we continued to sing the praises of the Hawkeyes. There is just so much to love about this team and it was all on display during last week's white-washing of previously undefeated Michigan State. Their balanced and precise on offense and stout and intimidating on defense. They have a dominating offensive line and guys on the defensive line that will be playing on Sunday's in the very near future. This all does not bode well for the Hoosiers who are 0-4 in the Big Ten including a 30 point loss to the wildly mediocre Illinois. Sure, some weird things can happen to keep this game close. In the same way that I could fall off my chair right now and land on several naked women who are rolling in millions of dollars and several kilos of cocaine. I'm betting on neither of those scenarios. Lay the points with confidence. Final score is 35-10. LOCK IT UP
Oregon State @ UCLA - Line is Oregon State -5 - Here's another example of old habits dying hard. We love to bet against UCLA - no matter how many times they burn us. We love to bet on Oregon State - they are a shifty bunch of ballers. The Beavers are five points better than UCLA and its water pistol offense, even without one of the Rodgers brothers. We'd like this game more if it were being played in Corvallis but location shouldn't really matter too much here. Oregon State has played one of the country's toughest schedules and has acquitted itself quite well along the way. Give the Bruins those 5 points - they won't know what to do with them. Final score is 30-20. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Hawaii @ Boise State - Line is Boise State -21 - We went back and forth on this game for most of the day. We know that sounds ridiculous since we have coined the term "Boise State Theorem" in response to the Broncos dominance and disdain for the point spread. That is just how much this Hawaii team's passing attack concerns us. The Warriors will score points in this game and that always makes covering a big number difficult. That said, the Theorem lives on. BSU knows that they are in a dog-fight for respect. Whoever wins the TCU-Utah showdown will take another step ahead of Boise State in the ongoing debate about small conference schools and the BCS. At this point, style points are just as important to Boise as real on-the-field points. For that reason, combined with the blue turf and the Broncos crowd, we think the Broncos figure this thing out and restore the Theorem to its esteemed position. Last week's uninspired effort against Louisiana Tech will be a faded memory by Saturday evening. One thing to keep in mind is that Hawaii is 7-1 ATS this season - there's that doubt creeping back in our mind - only to have the Theorem beat it down. Lay the points. Boise State wins 59-35. LOCK IT UP
No comments:
Post a Comment