That's right. This is the weekend that we've been building toward all year. We've had our ups and downs throughout the season (both college and pro) but the stars are aligned for Big Bucks and No Whammies this weekend before Thanksgiving. We got things started with our Four Star Special in the NFL last evening and we're going to keep things rolling with 11 big showdowns on Saturday. If you've been working our picks all year, this is the weekend that gets you in the Black. If you've been waiting on the sidelines, now is the time to jump in.
Five Star Special:
Arkansas @ Mississippi State - Line is Arkansas -3 - Arkansas has been one of the country's forgotten teams these past few weeks as everyone has been caught up in the Cam Newton drama, BCS vs. Non-AQ school debate and asking whether or not the Cal Bears are real men or just fakers. Well overlook the Hogs at your own peril. This team can play. They are 8-2 with their only losses coming against then #1 Alabama (by four points) and at current #2 Auburn. They haven't been tested in the last month in reeling off four straight victories and are the country's third best passing offense and a top 15 team in terms of scoring. Their defense ain't too shabby either as it ranks in the top 40 in points allowed. The Bulldogs have plodded along relatively nicely this season in achieving a current top 25 ranking. However, further examination shows that they are only 1-3 against ranked teams and that 1 was a 3-point victory over the potentially overrated Gators of Florida. They can run the ball and play defense which will always beat mediocre and bad teams. However, you need to be a bit more dynamic than that when facing top-tier competition. Miss St. just got throttled by a banged up Bama squad to drop them to 3-3 in the SEC. That might be just enough to have these guys a bit deflated and lacking something really meaningful to play for. If this game wasn't in Mississippi, then the line wouldn't be this small. Take advantage of that and lay the 3 measly points. The Hogs will cover this with ease. Final score is 37-23. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Wisconsin @ Michigan - Line is Wisconsin -4 - The Badgers are public enemy number 1 this week following the 83 points (potential ill-willed run-up) they threw on Indiana last week. From a gambling perspective, we think this plays right into the hands of those supporting Wisconsin. At this point, they have no friends or prospects of gaining any friends so they might just be in F-U mode on Saturday. They won't be inclined to call off the dogs at any point, especially with a Big Ten title on the line. This is a very good team that doesn't beat itself. They run the ball and play defense (I'm starting to sound like a broken record). They've already dispatched both Iowa and Ohio State and would be perfect if not for an early season slip-up against the then on fire Michigan State Spartans. The line in this game started the week at 5.5 and has slipped all the way down to 4. This confounds the Locksmith. Apparently the idiot public like Michigan in this spot. Well, that makes sense if you like a team that has beaten no team of any consequence and a team wholly incapable of playing defense. This doesn't sound like much of a "nightmare" match up for the Badgers. Sure Denard Robinson is exciting and dynamic and capable of making some plays but what about the rest of the Wolverines? They just don't stack up against Wisconsin in any reasonable way. Look out for another explosion of points from UW. Michigan does not stand much of a chance here. Lay the points. Final score is 48-31. LOCK IT UP
Kansas State @ Colorado - Line is Kansas State -2 - The Locks better be careful pimping all of these road favorites. That is usually not a great recipe for success. However, these match ups are too good to ignore. The K-State Wildcats are a team that we've had our eye on for a while. Their record might not be tremendous but they have been great against the spread this year (6-3) especially on the road (3-0). Vegas just can't establish a line that this team can't bust. And then there are the Buffaloes of Colorado who are 1-4 ATS in their past 5 games and 1-5 ATS within the Big 12. Did I mention that they are on to the second head coach of the season? A lot gets made of the fact that playing in Boulder is tough on visitors because of the elevation. Interesting in that Colorado has lost 2 of its past 3 games at home and only beaten the lame Cyclones of Iowa State during that stretch. The Buffaloes do nothing exceptionally well and most things at a below mediocre level. At least K-State can run the ball and score reasonably well. That will be enough for them to cover this tiny spread. Once again, lay the points and kick the home dog while he's down. Take K-State. Final score is 41-30. LOCK IT UP
Nebraska @ Texas A&M - Line is Nebraska -2.5 - Dag Nabbit, another road favorite that the Locks can't help but love on Saturday. Make no mistake, this will be a competitive game. The Aggies are a legit team and they just might be an opponent that can somewhat slow down Taylor Martinez. That said, Nebraska is just too good. They have: (1) an explosive rushing attack led by Martinez and Ray Helu Jr.; (2) a top 10 defense with a lock down corner back; and (3) major momentum with four straight victories including beatings of Top 15 teams (at the time) - Oklahoma State and Missouri. As we said, A&M is no slouch and comes into this game equally hot. However, they've already lost home games against teams of the Cornhuskers' caliber (Arkansas and Missouri). Plus, they need to throw the ball to win and that's where Nebraska's lock down corner and top 10 defense come in to play. If this line was a bit bigger, we'd be tempted to take the home dog. However, it's not, so we're not. Nebraska wins a close game and covers. Final score is 31-27. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Duke @ Georgia Tech - Line is GA Tech -10.5 - Talk about a line moving throughout the week. This one started with the Yellow Jackets as a 13 point favorite. Apparently, the Idiot Public likes the Blue Devils in this game. Must be basketball season in Durham and fans are confused. That said, this is one time where the Locks will step down off of its pedestal and become one with the Idiot Public. Georgia Tech is not the same team without starting QB Senor Nesbitt. He was the lynch pin in that wishbone offense and he's now taken up residence on the sideline. It's no coincidence that Ga Tech got smoked last week in the first game without Dr. Nesbitt. In fact, they've dropped three straight. Now Duke is no football powerhouse. They are 1-5 in the mediocre ACC after all. However, they've been playing better of late (2-1) and looking to build some momentum heading into next season. This is one of those games that can make the Dukies' season and give their fans some optimism heading into 2011. All those good vibes aside, Duke will lose this game. They just won't lose by 10 points. Take the points and the nerds from North Carolina. Final score is 30-24. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Iowa - Line is Ohio State -3 - We finally get to pick a home dog and boy do we love this home dog. If you don't know that the Locksmith has a love affair with this Hawkeye team, then you haven't been paying attention. We still think that Iowa is a top 5 team based on talent. They can run, pass, catch, defend, kick, etc. All those little things that seem to matter on a football field. Plus, they are a nightmare at home. If you don't think Ohio State is a bit nervous about having to pay a visit to Kinnick Stadium, then you are mistaken. Iowa has the talent on the defensive end to bottle up Terrell Pryor and make him have to beat them through the air - not what the Buckeyes are hoping for. Most importantly, I'm putting my faith in the belief that Iowa will simply want this game more than OSU and that the fans will add just enough of an advantage to get it done. We like Iowa to win this game, as we've been teasing for the past 8 weeks. Take the points as an added bonus. Final score is 24-23. LOCK IT UP
Virginia Tech @ Miami - Line is Va Tech -2 - From what we've seen, most experts like Miami and their new fast, flashy QB in this game. How soon they forget Jacory Harris and move onto the younger, prettier thing down in South Beach. Tough to see that coming. Well, the Locks prefers style over substance. We'll happily throw the beat-up 40-something convenience store clerk a sympathy lay and turn our nose up at the banging co-ed with a surgically perfected bosom. No problem. That's just the way we roll. And the way that the Hokies roll is to disappoint their fans in the first few games of the season and then close the campaign like a runaway train culminating in a bowl beat down of some overrated PAC-10 school. Well, the script is being followed again this season. Va Tech has reeled off 8 straight wins (all but one by at least 16 points) and look like a really good team. Miami, we just don't trust you. We're looking forward to Frank Beamer and his boys bringing their talents to South Beach for a beating. Take the convenience store clerk here and lay the points. We promise she's more fun. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Notre Dame vs. Army - Line is ND -9 - Once I learned that the Fighting Irish intended to desecrate the hallowed grounds of Yankee Stadium with their unique brand of stink this weekend, I had a minor meltdown. If we wanted an overrated team of idiots putting forth an uninspiring athletic performance in the Bronx in November, we would have just asked the Red Sox to come play a baseball game. And no, we have not gotten over the fact that ND blew our 2010 Lock of the Season to smithereens last week. We never will. But what last week's Irish performance does ensure is that they will soil themselves this week. It is simply inconceivable that they would show up in back-to-back weeks. They never play up to the challenge against the service academies (note a 35-17 thrashing at the hands of Navy three weeks ago). That same style of play will give the Suck Squad from South Bend fits again this week. Could they beat Army? Sure. Will they win by two scores? Not a chance. Take the points as Army does its best to bring some Yankee Pride to this battle. We're calling the upset: 24-22 Army. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
North Carolina @ North Carolina State - Line is UNC -2.5 - We like this NC State team and we really like their QB. He can do some impressive things on the field. The Tar Heel fans have already moved on to basketball and the football team and its band of rotating players has been forgotten. The Wolfpack fans on the other hand will be out in force looking to beat down their in-state rival. That's really all we got. We just know that NC State is a better team, they are playing at home and they are getting points. Sometimes things are that simple. Take the points. Final score is 27-24 NC State. LOCK IT UP
Illinois vs. Northwestern - Line is Illinois -8 - The week's third neutral site game, this one is being played at Wrigley Field. The problem is that Wrigley Field is so small that they can only use one of the end zones for the majority of the game. All drives will head in the same direction regardless of team and/or quarter. There is a first time for everything, we guess. In a game with something this ridiculous taking place, the Locks always takes the points. An oddity is more likely to hurt the favorite is how we assess that situation. Granted Northwestern lost its excellent QB, Dan Persa, to a TD celebration injury last week. However, the rest of this team is gritty, they've got momentum from their big win against Iowa and we expect they'll experience more of a home field advantage at Wrigley. That all adds up to a game in which the Illini will not cover. Take the 8 points here. Final score is 30-27. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Florida State @ Maryland - Line is FSU -3.5 - Another line that has moved quite a bit this week. It started at 5.5 in favor of the Seminoles. We'll happily go to battle against the Idiot Public here and enjoy the extra two bonus points for the FSU cover. Maryland is the feel-good story of the ACC season playing well above their talent level all year. But they really haven't beaten a single respectable team all season. We know that Christian Ponder has one monster game in him this season and this seems as good as any for that to happen. Add to that the fact that the athleticism on the Seminoles side of the ball is so far superior to that on the Terrapins side and this one seems pretty straightforward. Give me FSU and I'll give you the points. Final score is 33-21. LOCK IT UP
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