The MLB Season's Better Half

Tonight we kick off the second half of the baseball season in a somewhat abbreviated fashion. Only 16 of the 30 MLB teams are in action and nearly all of those are from the inferior league (at least according to ever single potential performance measure used to compare the leagues). And while you'd expect to have some really top-tier pitching matchups due to the off days and the opportunity to reset rotations, we will instead be treated to the likes of Jamie Moyer, Brandon Looper, Homer Bailey, and an Absolute Locks Hall of Famer, Ollie Perez. Not necessarily the names you'd expect to get the blood flowing. However, with three full days between us and the conclusion of the last truly meaningful baseball game (that WS home field advantage bit is more mirage than substance), we'd bet on tonight's Pleasant Hill D-League softball tilt between 70s Style Bush and the Salty Dogs if that was the only option (by the way, the Bush is -141 favorite in that contest). So for all of you "long-time" followers, as well as those of you just climbing aboard, here's to a second half filled with plenty of +140 moneyline victories to supplement your income.

NYM @ Atlanta - Why not get right to our favorite mental case this side of Carrot Top. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you: Oliver Perez. Here is a riddle for you: What could possibly make Dr. Control's season line of 2-2, 8.78 with 28 walks in 26.2 innings look good? The answer would be Perez's line of 0-1, 12.71 with 16 walks in 11.1 innings when throwing away from pitcher friendly Citi Field. To show just how whacked Pets fans are at this point, they see Ollie's last start (4 hits and 7 walks in 5 innings) as a step in the right direction. If I were a Pet fan (what an absurd notion) I would have been hoping the All Star break would have lasted all summer. This is not going to end well. The Braves aren't great, but they aren't the Pets either. Take the Braves behind Derek Lowe to throttle NY. Give the 1.5 runs for an EVEN moneyline. Final score will be 7-3. LOCK IT UP

Chicago @ Washington - I considered the Nats here as a sneaky play but then I saw the moneyline and realized there is nothing sneaky about (+103). Why are the Nats getting this sort of respect? I don't get it. Sure Lannan can deal reasonably well but pitching isn't Washington's problem. It's that scoring runs part of the game that they don't seem to get. Granted Rich Harden circa 2009 is not the Rich Harden of a few years back but his road splits are impressive (3-1, 2.59). I also think this Cubs offense is getting back on track. All thanks to Mr. Aramis Ramirez. What a huge difference he is going to make in the second half. Watch out for the under in this game as well. 9 is an awfully big number for these two offenses especially when these starters can deal when they're on. The pick here is the Cubs minus 1.5 runs (+135). Chicago rolls, 5-2. LOCK IT UP

Seattle @ Cleveland - Talk about a moneyline that is completely out of whack. Cleveland at -210. Is that a misprint? Has anyone in Vegas seen these guys play. Better question, has anyone seen them pitch? Cliff Lee is back to pitching like pre-2008 Cliff Lee and that bullpen is where outs go to die. Sure Garrett Olson may mail in a stinker for Seattle. Even if he does, Cleveland still has to find a way to get 27 outs. Plus, Seattle is a 14-11 team against lefties while the Injins play to 8-11 against southpaws. Final point: Seatlle took 3 out of 4 from Texas heading into the break. Texas is a very, very good baseball team. The M's have confidence and did I mention this moneyline is ridiculous. I like Seattle to win this one outright on the road (+175). They shall prevail 5-4. LOCK IT UP

Milwaukee @ Cincinnati - Yikes. I absolutely hate both of these pitchers. They are both as unpredictable as can be. This can be an 8-7 slugfest or, just as easily, a 3-2 duel. I just don't have any read based on the starters. That said, I definitely do know that I believe the Brewers are the much better team, and that was before the Reds got pasted by the Mets heading into the All Star break. Plus, the Brew Crew is a minor dog heading into this one. I think Prince derails the persistent Home Run derby hurting your second half power numbers theory right away with a round-tripper in this one. Take Milwaukee at EVEN money to win the game. I just threw some darts at the board and came up with a 6-4 final. LOCK IT UP

Philadelphia @ Florida - Maybe Ryan Howard should have had Chris Volstad pitch to him in the HR Derby. Based on his three HRs in six career at bats vs. Volstad, he might have given Prince a better run for his money. Jamie Moyer is 12-2 lifetime against Florida but since he's in his 70s many of those wins could have come back in the 90s. Regardless, Philly's lineup is the class of the NL, if not the entire league. There just aren't many games that I'm going to pick against the likes of Chase, the Flyin' Hawaiian, Werth, JRoll and Howard, especially when they are a dog. I'll take the Phils to win (-102), 7-5. LOCK IT UP

LAA @ Oakland - Here is another case of the superior team being an underdog. I get to see more of the Athletic Supporters than any one person needs to and I can tell you that this team has problems. I know everyone is screaming that Ervin Santana has been awful this year and that Dallas Braden has pitched very well. Numbers don't lie and I can't dispute that. However, I also can't dispute career numbers. The A's have no one that does anything against Santana (get a load of these numbers: Giambi - .071 in 14 ABs; Suzuki - .059 in 17 ABs; Crosby - .087 in 23 ABs). Those aren't exactly small sample sizes either. Plus, the Halos have guys that rake against Braden (Figgins, Aybar and Matthews are all over .350 against him - granted in fewer at bats). There are few things I put as much stake in as career numbers. That is also why I expect Santana to figure his issues out sooner or later and the A's offense provides a perfect time to do it. The Angels (+104) will win this one more easily than most expect. Final score 6-2. LOCK IT UP

Colorado @ San Diego - Not going to waste many words on this one. San Diego is putrid. The 23-20 home record is an aberration. The Rockies are a solid team and Aaron Cook a very good starting pitcher. The only thing Cook needs to worry about is Adrian Gonzalez (.398 with 2 HRs against him) and with the Big Kouz hitting behind him, there's no reason for Adrian to see a single strike tonight. Rockies roll in this one. Give SD the 1.5 runs and take Colorado (+130) to win 5-1. LOCK IT UP

Houston @ LA - I admit that I have not given Wandy Rodriguez sufficient respect this year and it has cost me money. He's pitched very well against some very good lineups. No doubt about it. Now that we have that out of the way, I'm taking the Dodgers to beat Wandy and the 'stros. LA wears out lefties to a clip of 17-10 while Houston is sub-.500 against southpaws. Randy Wolf had a bad start against Houston this year but it was way back in April. Disregard it. Manny is back in the middle of the LA lineup and this is his first game back in LA since his suspension. It all adds up to a Dodger win. I'm not going so far as to give any runs though. Take LA to win outright (-145) as they dispatch the Astros 5-4. LOCK IT UP

No Baseball, No Problem. Golf, Football and Streakers, Oh My

I must say, while today is truly a sports wasteland with no action to be found, it provides me a wonderful opportunity to gloat about absolutely nailing the All-Star game last evening. All the way down to the final score (4-3, AL). While I'll be the first to admit that hitting a final MLB score right on the nose is an exercise in immense luck and good fortune, it doesn't take away from the satisfaction you feel when you do it. OK. Enough with the back pats. We have an entire second half of a baseball season during which to make you large bags with $ painted on the outside.

Editor's Note: With the W in the All-Star game, we head into the second half with a 61-55 record and a BAT (Bank Account Tracker) of +$31.

With no baseball in sight for at least another 30 hours or so, we'll turn today's discussion to a few other sports that the Absolute Locks fancies, namely golf and football.

138th Open Championship

The best golfers in the world have gathered in Turnberry, Scotland eager to get on the tee and battle for the Claret Jug. From Vegas' perspective, you'd think that Tiger was teeing it up all by himself and only has to stay alive until Sunday to take home the trophy. While that might be the way some of these tournament, especially majors, seem to play out, I'm not ready to render the next four days of golf meaningless. In fact, I'm betting we see a non-Tiger hoist the Jug on Sunday afternoon. My guess is that your 2009 Open Champion will come from one of three golfers. However, before we get to those predictions, let's take a quick look at the tournament favorites according to men smarter than me:

Tiger Woods +200
Field +1000 (I'm not sure who this guy Field is but he must be good)
Sergio Garcia +2200

That's right, Tiger is a more than 10x bigger favorite than any other one golfer that will play at Turnberry. Christ, he's a 5x favorite over nearly the entire field (not including the 23 top players based on Vegas odds). That is just an obnoxious line for an event of this type. Don't get me wrong, I realize just how good Tiger is. In fact, I consider myself a fan who often finds himself pulling for the guy. However, when it comes to making dough, you have to find the angles and, more importantly, the best risk/reward profile. With that in mind, I present the three gentlemen from whom I believe the 138th Open Champion will emerge. This list is in no particular order:

Jim Furyk (+2700)
Jeff Ogilvy (+4500)
Ian Poulter (+2700)

Hope you all enjoy the event and tune in on Sunday afternoon to see if any of the Absolute Locks' picks take home the title.



NFL Team Over/Under Challenge

If you are anything like me, then it is never too early to start talking football. Whether it is getting ready for college gridiron and its opening weekend 63 point spreads or gearing up for a fantasy draft, the good ole pigskin is never far from my mind. Since we're looking squarely down the barrel of a non-sport day, I figured this would be a nice opportunity to start dedicating some space to American Football. In order to get everyone focused on the upcoming NFL season, I've decided to launch a contest of sorts among the loyal readers of Absolute Locks. Hopefully, you'll be intrigued enough to participate. If not, then you'll at least be able to follow along and mock the losers.

Here's what we'll do. The Venetian in Las Vegas came out with its over/under lines for each team for the upcoming season. Essentially, the sports book establishes a number of games they expect each team to win during the 16-game season. From there, you can bet that the team will win more (over) or less (under) than that number. I'll include the numbers for all 32 teams below. Our contest will call for people to submit an entry that includes 3 teams that they like to hit the over and 3 teams that they like to hit the under. We'll post everyone's selections and track the progress throughout the season. Don't get too excited, the only prize is the valuable admiration of those foes that you vanquish along the way. If you want to participate, be sure to send me your entries at tbrons@vidallc.com by the end of next week (Friday, July 24). Good luck. Here are the official lines that we'll be running the contest from:

Patriots - 12
Steelers - 11
Colts - 10.5
Giants - 10.5
Chargers - 10.5
Cowboys - 9.5
Eagles - 9
Cardinals - 9
Packers - 8.5
Saints - 8.5
Ravens - 8.5
Vikings - 8.5
Titans - 8.5
Panthers - 8.5
Jaguars - 8
Jets - 8
Texans - 8
Dolphins - 8
Redskins - 8
Bears - 8
Falcons - 8
Bills - 7.5
Seahawks - 7.5
Broncos - 7.5
49ers - 7
Browns - 6.5
Buccaneers - 6.5
Chiefs - 5.5
Bengals - 5.5
Raiders - 5.5
Rams - 5
Lions - 5

Absolute Locks = AL; American League = AL; Coincidence?

The good old Summer Classic is only hours away and regardless of all the backlash you've heard on talk radio about this game not being what it once was, I am excited. There are few things at 34 years of age that give me the same feeling as watching a MLB All-Star game. I think that is a good thing.

Before we get to the game itself, let's reflect a bit on the HR Derby. I'm always surprised by the amount of joy that I get from watching some of the absolute bombs that get hit in this contest. This is a bit concerning because it can be argued that the love of the monstrous home run might have been the gentle nudge that sent us rolling down the PED (performance enhancing drug) hill. You only have to think back to how enthralled fans were watching Big Mac clear the Green Monster time and time again in the HR Derby several years back to get the warm flow of betrayal in your blood. And who knows just how "clean" any of today's players are but that is a conversation that I am too bored with to address. So call me naive or the great avoider, but I just watched as a fan last night and must say I liked what I saw.

First off, my +800 darkhorse put in a major performance before flaming out in the finals. If only Nelson Cruz could have outlasted Prince Fielder, this space would have been filled with an obnoxious amount of attaboys for myself. Oh well, at least he kept it interesting.

What is always interesting to me about the derby is the big time sluggers that absolutely shit the bed. Seriously? With a total of 10 outs to be made, only three of the leagues best sluggers were able to reach 7 HRs in the first round? That just seems crazy to me. And how does my pick, a guy that hits bombs in the cavernous Petco Park, only put up a measly two dingers? It could have been worse. I could have picked Brandon Inge and his grand total on zero taters. Even home town hero and the undisputed king of baseball Albert Pujols needed a 'Swing Off' to advance out of the first round. It just goes to show that these things are total crap shoots. As such, we happily donate our $10 that backed Adrian Gonzalez and look forward to the return of the real games. With a BAT that has now shrunk to $+22, we will attempt to get some green back on the battle of the All Stars.

I'm not going to put a lot of analysis into this pick. The AL is the better league, by far. The AL has dominated this game for a long, long time. Vegas has a pretty even line on this one so we'll happily take the American League (-113) to prevail in St. Louis. Look for a low scoring game that ends 4-3 in favor of the AL. LOCK IT UP

Today is one of the saddest days of the entire year. There are only two days all year in which not a single game is played in one of the four major professional sports leagues (baseball, football, basketball and hockey - not sure how much longer hockey will be included in this company). Those would be the day before and the day after the MLB All-Star game. So while today is sad, we at least have the home run derby to make some dough on. Wednesday is really, really sad, as there is not a thing at all to do except think about the return of baseball on Thursday.

The Locks did an admirable job of rebounding from the absurdly dismal performance that was put forth on Saturday. We're still in a bit of shock over the 3-8 drubbing we put together. However, we only decreased the BAT by $50 on that day. Fortunately for us, we got $24 of that back yesterday. We went 9-6 and even hit a few long shot payouts (notably Florida to cover 1.5 runs and the Dodgers on the road). All told, we remain in positive BAT territory heading into the MLB's season intermission. We've ended the first half of the season with a +$32 BAT. In an effort to pad that number a bit more heading into the second half, we're going to recommend some action on tonight's Home Run Derby in St. Louis. For full coverage of the Derby at Busch Stadium, click here.

The lineup and odds for the derby are as follows:

Fat Albert (hometown favorite): +200
Ryan Howard: +250
Adrian Gonzalez +500
Joe Mauer +750
Prince Fielder +350
Nelson Cruz +800
Brandon Inge +1,000
Carlos Pena +650

Aside from Inge, we have a pretty stacked field this year. And I wouldn't even completely dismiss Brandon here. Stranger things have happened. We have a total of 5 lefties and 3 righties this year, but based on Busch Stadiums nearly identical dimensions to both fields, there shouldn't be an advantage from one side or the other.

Also important to note is that the rules do not specify that each league needs a representative in the finals. It is an open contest so any two man combination of these eight participants can to the finals. For my readers' pleasure, I am going to offer my prediction for which two make the finals and who wins, along with a look at a potential dark horse for those of you who want to back one of the longer shots.

DARK HORSE - In terms of pure power and the ability to launch picturesque moonshots, there might not be a better candidate than Nelson Cruz. This guys can absolutely crush the ball, as he has consistently during the first half of the season. The knock on Cruz has been that you can easily fool him with ML-level pitching and that he only hits mistakes for homers. I'm not saying I completely agree with that but if it is true, there is no better place to see mistake pitch after mistake pitch than in a home run hitting contest. If Cruz can settle into a rhythm with his pitcher throwing the ball where he wants it, this guy can put up big numbers tonight. However, this is his first exposure to something of the prestige of the All-Star game and you just never know how someone will handle all the flash bulbs. I'm guessing that he is unfazed by the big stage and puts himself in the position to make some noise in this contest. At +800, he certainly is not a bad guy to take a shot on.

RUNNER-UP - There is no bigger fan of Fat Albert out there than me and there won't be a person affiliated with MLB or at Busch Stadium tonight that doesn't want to see him win this thing. Combine that with his status as Vegas favorite (+200) and I think this is a case of the Fairy Tale just not materializing. Don't get me wrong, I think Pujols puts on a show in the early rounds of the derby. He's gonna hit some bombs and everyone will go nuts. I just think that once he gets to the Final, he's gonna have burned through much of his adrenalin and struggle a bit to finish strong. This wouldn't be the first time he made a Home Run Derby final without winning. I certainly won't be disappointed to see him win, I'm just not counting on it happening.

WINNER - Ever since I passed on this guy for my 2009 season home run pool, I've been tossing and turning at night. He deserves so much more praise and attention than he gets. There are very few swings as pretty and fundamentally sound as his. If he played in a different home stadium, he might make a run at 60 HRs. I just have a feeling about him tonight. I think this will be America's long overdue introduction to his sick ability to absolutely destroy baseballs. And from a value standpoint, you can't beat getting 5-1 odds on the guy you like the most. So put $10 on this guy to pay you $50. That will certainly help the BAT.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Home Run Derby Champion - Adrian Gonzalez.

I Will Survive

Smarting from a historically bad Saturday, the Locks is focused on redemption today, the last day of games prior to the All Star game. We're up early, coffee in hand, combing through reams and reams of data in order to uncover the nitty gritty details that will point to today's victorious teams. So with that, we'll put yesterday's 3-8 record and -$50 BAT aside and move ahead. Going into today's action we now sport a cumulative BAT of +$8. Time to rebuild. Work drugs!

Cleveland at Detroit - This rubber match between the Injins and Tigers will not be close. Not when the pitching matchup of that of an All-Star (Justin Verlander) and a washed-up, bag of dog meat (Tomo Ohka). Verlander is not always lights out but he sure kills Cleveland (2-0, 0.56, 22Ks in 16 innings and opponent batting average of .080). Take the Tigers minus 1.5 runs at -110. 9-2 Detroit. LOCK IT UP

St. Louis @ Chicago - Game 1 - The Cards and Cubs play a double-tilt today with Game 1 featuring Big Z vs. Kyle Loshe. While it is always difficult for me to pick against the Cards and my confidence in Carlos Zambrano is shaky at best, I was startled by some data I uncovered this morning. The career numbers for Chicago's biggest boppers against Loshe are outrageous. Derek Lee - .389; Aramis Ramirez - .538 with a HR; Alfonso Soriano - .393 with 2 HRs; Ryan Theriot - .526. Those are some impressive track records that cannot be ignored. As long as we are talking track records, we should also mention that Ryan Ludwick has a career .750 average with 2 HRs against Big Z. Watch out: the over might be a solid bet today. However, we're just going to bet the Cubbies (-140) to win Game 1 today. They will prevail 7-4. LOCK IT UP

Cincinnati @ NYM - The Pets showed a bit of spunk yesterday and made me look bad. I do not like being made to look like a fool by the Pets. I will dispatch Aaron Harang and the Reds to exact my revenge today. It should not be too difficult. Harang is a solid starter and the Mets are sub-competent hitters. Which Mike Pelfrey will show up for the Mets today? Who knows but I'll bet it isn't a Mike Pelfrey that leads the Mets to victory. Take the Reds (-110) to win 5-2. LOCK IT UP.

Kansas City @ Boston - This is the craziest moneyline that I have ever seen for a ML game. The Red Sox are -310 favorites behind Josh Beckett today. That puts the Royals as +250 dogs and an incredible attractive gamble. Hell, you can even get +125 on the Royals getting 1.5 runs. This is a battle between logic (Beckett should lead Red Sox to huge win over the Bruce Chen-led Royals) and opportunity (a Royal win will be worth at least 2 ordinary wins from a money standpoint). These Royals have shown me something throughout this entire series with the Sox. They are scrappy. I'm going to roll the dice and take them plus the 1.5 runs (+125) in a bet that I can't believe I am supporting. Credit my hatred for Red Sox Nation. I think the Sox win a nail-biter 6-5. LOCK IT UP.

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia - Impressive comeback by the Phils yesterday but not enough to cover the 1.5 runs that I was giving Pitt. That is two straight games in which the Phils won without covering. I don't anticipate this trend continuing. The Pirates are out of bullets. They'll score runs off of J.A. Happ but not enough. I like the Phils to finally cover the 1.5 runs (-115) and win 8-5. LOCK IT UP

Toronto @ Baltimore - As you like know by now. I really like the young Baltimore bats (even though they are prone to lapses in production). I didn't give Mr. Consonant any credit for his ML debut last week against the Rays and he was impressive. I'm not counting on Rzepczynski to repeat that effort. My O's break out offensively in this one to support Brad Bergesen who is solid at Camden Yards. Take the O's (-120) to win 7-4. LOCK IT UP

Oakland @ Tampa Bay - TAMPA BITCHES. Not sure who showed up in those A's uniforms yesterday but that was a highly unusual offensive output. They should have saved some runs for today's contest against Big Game James. Brett Anderson comes back to earth after his career performance against Boston last week. TB rolls into the All Star break with a big win. Take them minus the 1.5 runs (+110) to win going away, 6-1. LOCK IT UP

LA @ Milwaukee - This is tough one as I like both of these young starters. In cases like this, I usually break my mind lock by taking the dog and the better payout. That is certainly not a bad option when the dog is the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw on the hill. He is much steadier than Yovani Gallardo, though Gallardo always has the chance to absolutely dominate any lineup. I think the Dodgers (+112) take this game, and the series. They'll win 4-3. LOCK IT UP

Washington @ Houston - I can't believe I am picking this game. That goes to show how much I like the young arm of Jordan Zimmermann. Believe it or not, the Nats are nearly even on the moneyline on the road. Outrageous. So much so, that I'll take them. Go with Washington (-110) and enjoy the performance put on by Zimmermann. Nats win 4-1. LOCK IT UP

Chicago @ Minnesota - The Twins are another team that I hate to pick against, especially at home. However, the Sox are absolutely on fire. No team is more upset at the timing of the All Star game then these guys. I'm sure they want to keep on playing. I think they'll ride the arm of Mark Buehrle into the break with a big road win. They've already knocked around Scott Baker one time this year. Take the ChiSox (+114) to win this one, 7-4. LOCK IT UP

Atlanta @ Colorado - I was going to beg out of picking this game as I have no feel for who will win. Then I thought, that is a big-time pussy move and I have to restore the confidence of my loyal followers. So, I will give you a route for making money on this one. That route runs directly through the over. I see a slugfest Sunday afternoon going down in the Mile High City. In fact, Alison Borton may even be able to see some balls flying past her plane as it approaches Denver this afternoon. Take the over (10) in this one in a high-scoring affair in the neighborhood or 9-8. LOCK IT UP

NYY @ LAA - This is a game in which I will pull a pussy move. No pick here. I'm just a shell-shocked Yankees fan at the moment.

San Diego @ San Francisco - The Padres are awful. I won't push my luck again with the Giants offense to cover a 1.5 run line but I do expect them to win. The Padres are awful (did I say that already)? Take SF (-133) to win 4-2. LOCK IT UP

Florida @ Arizona - Love Josh Johnson. Don't love Doug Davis. That's enough for me. I'm going to go so far as to say that the Fish cover a run and a half on the road. Take Florida minus 1.5 runs (+140) as they win this game 5-2. LOCK IT Up

Texas @ Seattle - Can't believe that I've picked Seattle so many times in this series. They have just been some tough match-ups for the Rangers and the M's are playing well. Texas does not hit Erik Bedard historically and are starting Kenny Powers' brother Dustin Nippert today. I'm riding the Mariner momentum in this one. Take Seatlle (-148) to win and take the series. Final score is 7-4. LOCK IT UP

St. Louis @ Chicago -Game 2 - It is very difficult to sweep a double header in the big leagues. I picked the Cubs in the early game, so I'm going with my Cardinals in this one. Adam Wainright is one of the majors best starters at this point. Ride him to victory. Take Cards (+101) to win the nightcap 4-2. LOCK IT UP

Saturday Lightning Round

Running very late today so we're going to keep the commentary to a minimum. It's not like any of you guys read that shit anyway. I'm sure this is more of a "just give me the picks" type of crowd. So today you'll get your wish.

First some housekeeping. Maybe the Giants should be big favorites when Jonathan Sanchez pitches after all. Also want to send a big shit sandwich out to Brad Lidge who gave up a meaningless two-out 9th inning home run to bust my 1.5 run line in the Phillies game last night. He won't be getting a Christmas Card from the Locks anytime soon. We went a grand total of 8-6 yesterday but more importantly netted out +$22. That brings the BAT to a respectable +58.

Here are today's rapid-fire winners:

Oakland @ Tampa Bay - TAMPA BITCHES. They keep it rolling at home behind Garza who will dominate the A's. Take the Ray's minus 1.5 runs at +105. Final score is 7-2. LOCK IT UP

Toronto @ Baltimore - Ricky Romero has looked very impressive recently. I put my crush on the O's offense on hold for a day. Rich Hill will get lit up today. Take the Jays minus 1.5 runs at +125. They'll win 8-4. LOCK IT UP

Chicago @ Minnesota - Love the Twins at home as long as they aren't playing the Yankees. Sox have been hot but the Twins hitters will do enough today. Take the Twinkies (-115) to win outright, 6-5. LOCK IT UP

Kansas City @ Boston - I can't believe I remain a staunch supporter of the BoSox but they're gonna bust out of this offense funk eventually and cover a 1.5 run line. I don't buy John Smoltz at all but he's got to pitch well eventually. I'll roll the dice that the Sox bats batter Meche today and cover the 1.5 runs (+110). Boston wins 7-4. LOCK IT UP

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia - Got to ride the Phillies as long as they keep on winning. Hopefully Lidge doesn't get the chance to eliminate a two run lead in the 9th. Take the Phils minus the 1.5 runs at -120. Phils roll to a 6-2 victory. LOCK IT UP

Cleveland @ Detroit - Am I really backing Carl Pavano and the Cleveland Indians? I've got to check my head. However, the Injins can't lose every game and they are getting to face Armando Gallaraga. Take the Tribe in a minor upset at +103. They'll win 7-5. LOCK IT UP

Cincinnati @ NYM - Yup, I'm betting against the great Santana. That is how bad these Mets are. They need to score in order to win and Johnny Cueto is gonna make that tough for these minor leaguers. Take the advantageous moneyline and the Reds (+119). They will win a tight one on a Met miscue. 3-2. LOCK IT UP

LA @ Milwaukee - Keep riding the teams that make you money. Dodgers will roll even though I absolutely hate Jeff Weaver from his Yankee days. Brewers need to start playing some less talented teams. Take Dodgers (-110) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP

Washington @ Houston - Not picking this game. No chance.

Atlanta @ Colorado - OK, I surrender. I will roll the dice and back Jason Marquis. This should be what it takes to find end his hot streak. Take the Rockies to win (-113). Final score will be 4-2. LOCK IT UP

Florida @ Arizona - Not at all interested in this game. Sorry.

San Diego @ San Francisco - The Padres might have to wait until Sunday to get a hit. Cain will keep them frustrated. Take the Giants and give the 1.5 runs (-120). They'll win 7-1. LOCK IT UP

Texas @ Seattle - This is a tough one. I love the Rangers but also respect the way the Mariners have been playing, and especially hitting. I'll take Washburn to win this one at home in a tightly contested affair. Take the M's (-114) to win. It goes 4-2. LOCK IT UP

Record Setting Friday On Tap; Climb Aboard

Today is a big day in the history of Absolute Locks for it is the first time that we have ever provided picks for a total of 14 MLB games. We still have room to improve and tackle the holy grail of 15 games, but that is reserved for another time. Fortunately for us, it appears that pick #1 is well on its way to coming in as Fat Albert continues to terrify NL pitchers. That Cards win might even be final by the time we post this.

Before we get to the rest of the day's picks, let's recap what happened yesterday and update the proprietary Bank Account Tracker (BAT). We started strong yesterday, thanks again to Fat Albert and a rousing Cardinals comeback. We were 2-1 in afternoon action. The evening was not as nice to us as our long shot of the day was a few pitches from coming in before Franklin Gutierrez connected on a three-run homerun to beat the Rangers. All told, we went 3-4 at night for a combined 5-5 record on Thursday. In keeping the with the break even theme, our wagers did just that: broke completely even for no change to the BAT. We still stand +$36. Now to tonight's winners:

Cleveland @ Detroit - Cleveland's one and only reliable starter takes the hill tonight in the person of Cliff Lee. However, unless Lee throws a complete game, that atrocious bullpen will rear its ugly head at some point during the game. While pitching fairly well against Detroit this season (2.40), Lee has an 0-2 record to show for it. Edwin Jackson has turned the corner from frustrating prospect to solid starter. Detroit (-141) is the better team with the better pitcher. Take them to win 4-3. LOCK IT UP

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia - This Penn-Sla-Vania rivalry kicks off tonight in a small stadium with two pitchers who have trouble with surrendering the long ball. Joe Blanton has been very solid of late and the Phils have worked through their early season difficulties with winning at home. They get to face a lefty, albeit a tough one, in Zack Duke. That is music to the Phillies' ears as they perform mightily against southpaws (19-11). Take Philly minus the 1.5 runs (+115). They'll win 7-4. LOCK IT UP

Toronto @ Baltimore -Not knowing which way to go in this matchup of AL East doormats, I'm forced to cave to my crush on the O's young hitters. Hitting should be something this game doesn't lack with the opposing starters both sporting ERAs in the 6.20s. Neither team has been on fire of late but Toronto is struggling more with only two wins in its last ten games. Take the Birds from America (-110) to win 8-6. LOCK IT UP

Cincinnati @ NYM - If something ain't broke, don't fix it. That is how I feel about picking against the Mets, a team whose motto is, "We know it's broke but are too inept to fix it." Bronson Arroyo's recent outings absolutely terrify me but I'll stick with the Mets finding a way to lose. Besides, Cincy just played the superior Phils very tough. I know the Philadelphia Phillies, and NY Mets, you are no Philadelphia Phillies. Reds (-105) take the series opener 6-5. LOCK IT UP

Kansas City @ Boston - The BoSox are going to bounce back in a big, big way tonight. It is that simple. Look to John Lester to dominate a team that doesn't hit lefties well. I don't see Brian Bannister shutting down the Sox based on his 0-3, 8.22 career line against them. Disclaimer: I would not mind being wrong about this one at all. Take Boston minus 1.5 runs at -125. LOCK IT UP

Oakland @ Tampa Bay - TAMPA BITCHES! You'll get sick of reading that long before I get sick of writing it. The Rays are tough, tough, tough at the Trop. They're also playing some pretty good baseball, something that nobody is going to say about these Athletic Supporters. In a statistical oddity, very few of Jeff Niemann's starts have come at home. I think he'll enjoy this one, as will the Rays' bats. The A's can't hang in Stevie Janowsky's favorite city. Take TB minus the 1.5 runs (+125) to win, 7-3. LOCK IT UP

LA @ Milwaukee - This is a tough stretch for the Brewers. First the Cardinals roll through town and now the Dodgers bring the ML's best record to Miller Park. I really like Braun & Co but have not been able to pick them much recently. That trend continues tonight as Chad Billingsly faces Brandon Looper. Who do you think has the advantage there? Ryan Braun is absolutely right that the Brewers need some real pitchers in order to contend. Take LA to win (-128). They will, 5-2. LOCK IT UP

Washington @ Houston - The boycott continues. Even with Roy Oswalt on the hill. Look elsewhere for action tonight.

Chicago @ Minnesota - Chicago comes in playing some of its best baseball of the year and with one of baseball's hottest pitchers on the mound. More importantly, they've made me consistent dough this past week. So it is only natural that I am taking the Twinkies in this one. For one, I doubt John Danks' run of complete domination will continue against Minnesota. There are a number of Twins that have hit him well throughout their careers (Morneau, Mauer and Kubel). Secondly, Nick Blackburn loves to pitch in the Metrodome and I love it when he does. I'll take the Twins (-127) to bounce back from the sweep at the hands of the Yankees. They win 4-2. LOCK IT UP

Atlanta @ Colorado - I'm tempted to go with the under again in this series but have been sufficiently scared off by Coors Field. So it comes down to picking a winner instead. Something is pulling me toward the Braves springing the upset. Derek Lowe is due for a bounce back performance one of these days. Tonight seems as good as any. As good as Umbald Jiminez has looked this year, he's prone to some lapses within games. Going out on a limb with the Braves (+128). 5-4, LOCK IT UP

UPDATE: THE CARDS VICTORY JUST WENT FINAL - THAT'S 1-0 ON THE DAY FOR +$9. SANK YOU

Florida @ Arizona - Here's another game that I'm going to go a less obvious way with. Dan Harren is an absolute stud, especially at home. I went against two other studs last night (that didn't sound right). Both Lincecum and King Felix burned me (that didn't sound right either). That said, I think Ricky Nolasco has the potential to completely shut down the woeful Dbacks offense and deal Danny Boy another tough luck loss. I'm playing the hunch that Florida rides the momentum from last night's big comeback and gets the win. Take the Fish (+127) in a 3-2 game. LOCK IT UP

NYY @ LAA - The solution to Joe Saunders' recent struggles do not lie in the Yankees' lineup, Joba loves to pitch anywhere other than the new Stadium so Angel Stadium will do. Hunter and Guerrero are out, the Yankees are FUCKING IN! I like them so much that I'll lay the 1.5 runs @ +120. Bombers keep rolling, 8-3. LOCK IT UP

Texas @ Seattle - The Rangers will not lose two in a row at Safeco Field. Plain and simple. This season, Brandon Morrow has a 67.50 ERA vs. Texas with the Rangers hitting .714 against him. That is ridiculous. I'm going for the big money here. Texas minus 1.5 runs (+140) in a rout, 9-2. LOCK IT UP

San Diego @ San Francisco - I was going to avoid picking this game altogether but knowing that the infamous James Charlesworth will be in attendance at AT&T Park tonight made me change my mind. I'm sending this analysis out in honor of Jimmy C. No way the Giants should be a -144 favorite with Jonathan Sanchez on the mound, EVER! For that reason alone, take the Padres (+124). 6-5 Final. LOCK IT UP

LATE BREAKING NEWS: Jimmy Charlesworth is a late scratch for tonight's game with a case of explosive diarrhea. I'm tempting to cancel my Giants/Padres pick based on this new information but that would leave me a game short of the 14 picks that I advertised. All picks stand and I'll deal with JC when I see him.

Friday Afternoon Fun

You can thank the Cubs and Wrigley Field for giving us our one and only taste of day baseball on this Friday. I'll be back in a bit with a recap of yesterday's results and the picks for tonight's full slate of action. For now, here's a winner to get your day started right.

St. Louis @ Chicago - Fat Albert and Chris Carpenter roll into ChiTown for an interesting three games set. The Cubs offense has continued to struggle though you can expect it to get going as Aramis Ramirez gets more ABs under his belt. Don't underestimate just how important his bat in the middle of the lineup is to this team. However, the solution for a sputtering offense is never a date with Chris Carpenter. Aside from one clunker against SF, he's been his typical dominant self this season. Even more convincing is just how much more dominant he is during the day (3-1, 1.23). Rich Harden can certainly be a formidable opponent but he won't have enough today. I like the Cards (-115) to win this game 5-1. LOCK IT UP

Unveiling the Bank Account Tracker

As I've mentioned in previous posts, I think it is important to provide a measure for the success of Absolute Locks merely beyond a simple W-L record. In the world of gambling, with its varying moneylines, wins and losses tell an incomplete, and sometimes misleading, story. With that in mind, in addition to tracking Ws and Ls, we are going to offer our proprietary Bank Account Tracker. This tracker will function by assuming that we place $10 on every wager and monitoring the fluctuations in the money that would be won and lost. This might give the gamblers among you a better gauge for the value we are, or are not, providing.

In kicking this tool off, we decided to catch up on previous days of picks in order to have an accurate, up-to-the-minute dollar total. Here it is:

June 30 (3-5 record): minus $16
July 1 (2-6): minus $43 (balance of -$59)
July 2 (3-4): minus $8 (balance of -$67)
July 3 (5-3): positive $25 (balance of -$42)
July 6 (6-2): positive $24 (balance of -$18)
July 7 (10-3): positive $67 (balance of +$49)
July 8 (6-7): minus $13 (balance of +36)

So we kick-off today's action up $36 after just about a week of action. Again, this assumes that all bets are for $10. For higher rollers, a $100 a bet approach would have you up $360 as of this morning. We'll continue to post daily back account tracker results, along with a running, up-to-date balance.

Before we get to tonight's games, it is important to note that in early action today the Yanks and Cards have already come in and the ChiSox are mounting a furious comeback from down 9-2. We're feeling good and will keep the winners rolling tonight:

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia - I don't love Jamie Moyer here but he has been pitching better of late. Key in this ballpark is that Moyer keeps the ball on the ground at a bit higher rate than Reds' starter Micah Owings. Owings is the type of pitcher the big Phillie bats can hurt....and they will. I think the Reds put up some runs in this game, just not enough. Take Philly (-154) to win 6-5. LOCK IT UP

San Diego @ San Francisco - With Lincecum on the mound tonight, this certainly has the feel of a Giants victory. The moneyline (-275) certainly agrees with that point of view. However, the Locks never plays these king of moneylines in the interest of profit. So just how do you make some money on a game like this. Well, we're eyeballing the line on the Padres plus 1.5 runs (+105). The Giants offense is not very good and Josh Geer has been pitching better for the Pads. I see this as a low-scoring, one-run game. I'll take SD plus the run and a half in a 3-2 Giants win. LOCK IT UP

Kansas City @ Boston - The latest Beantown punching bag rolls through Fenway this weekend in the form of the KC Royals. Thank you sir, may I have another. Luke Hochevar brings his 6.55 road ERA to Boston. I don't see this one being very close, though the Boston bats have been marginal recently. Brad Penny should work through the Royals lineup fairly easily. Take Boston minus the 1.5 runs at an EVEN moneyline. They take care of business 8-4. LOCK IT UP

LA @ NYM - That was a fairly atypical performance for both the Mets and Dodgers last night. And the Dodgers only lost by a run. That highlights just how significant the disparity is between these two teams. I believe things get back to normal tonight at Citi Field as Randy Wolf continues his career trend of dominating the Pets. "And He Shall Be" Livan is a gutsy guy but not gutsy enough to save the Mets. Take LA minus 1.5 runs at EVEN. They cruise 6-2. LOCK IT UP

Washington @ Houston - This weekend's installment of the "Who Freaking Cares" MLB series. Not making a pick just on general principle. LOCK THESE TEAMS UP AND DUMP THEM IN THE OCEAN

Atlanta @ Colorado - Tough game to pick a winner, so I won't. The o/u line is was too high (9.5) in this battle of very good pitchers. You can thank good ole Coors Field for that. I am totally buying Tommy Hanson as a staff ace. His stuff is excellent and he's getting more and more comfortable every time out. Aaron Cook is no slouch himself as he showed when shutting out the weak hitting Bravos on four hits in May. Take the under at -115. This is a 4-2 type of game. LOCK IT UP

Florida@ Arizona - I like Andrew Miller's stuff and the Dbacks don't like to face lefties (8-15). Arizona is starting someone with an ERA of 8.46. That should be enough for you. It sure is for me. Take the fish to win (-108). Final score of 8-5. LOCK IT UP

Texas @ Seattle - Just as sometimes you feel like life has kicked you in the nuts, sometimes you just feel like life has given you a gift. That is how I feel about this game. Vegas is giving Felix Hernandez way too much credit with this moneyline (Seattle -180). Have they seen the way that the Rangers are swinging the bats? Did they see the M's bullpen meltdown yesterday? I love Texas in this game and I love the moneyline (+160) even more. Take the Rangers to win, 5-3. LOCK IT UP

No Time to Chat...Early Games on Tap

I followed up a solid afternoon with a shaky evening yesterday. Right now, I'm scrambling to get you picks on three early games so the narrative will be kept to a minimum. I'll be back with some insight and the evening's picks a bit later. I'll also introduce our bank account tracker tool this afternoon.

NYY @ Minnesota - As I wrote yesterday, the Yankees dominate the Twins. I'm going to push my luck and predict the sweep for the Bombers. Aceves gets a spot start which is better than trotting Wang out there again. Liriano is still trying to get his head straight on the mound. Not something the Yanks will make easy. Money line is enticing as well. Take the Yanks (-110) to win. Final score is 6-4. LOCK IT UP

Cleveland @ Chicago - I have to stick with the hot hand here and predict another series sweep. Cleveland is the AL's answer to the Mets at this point. They can't get out of there own way. If there starting pitcher doesn't get shelled, then the bullpen will. I think the Tribe's offense will put up a fight in this one against Clayton Richard, but I think the ChiSox find a way to pull it out. 7-6. Take Chicago to win (-122). LOCK IT UP

St. Louis @ Milwaukee - By now you know how I feel about Pujols and LaRussa. No way they let Manny Parra shut them down in his return from the minors. Plus, the Cards are a great bounce back team and that was one tough loss last night. Look to the red birds to roll easily in this one. Take them minus 1.5 runs (+145) as they win 7-2. LOCK IT UP

Wednesday's Winners - Round Two

With afternoon baseball winding down, it looks like I'll probably close this session at 2-2. Not great, but not bad either since you'd likely break even with the various moneylines in play. Speaking of which, I am going to introduce a new value metric to the blog in the near-term. This will be designed to demonstrate what the financial return on my picks would be if they were to be made. For this exercise, we'll assume that every bet is a $10 bet. I'll go back through all the picks to date and calculate what my record nets out to in terms of real American greenbacks. After all, that is what matters. Not a W/L record. If I was only concerned about wins and losses, I'd never take a team to cover a 1.5 run line, I'd just pick them to win outright. With that, let's look at tonight's winners:

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia - It is difficult to have strong feelings on this match-up between two very much unknown starting pitchers. Homer Bailey has been terrible in his career but was exceptional in his last start. Rodrigo Lopez made his first major league start in years and looked excellent....against the Mets. My guess here is that Bailey's control issues put too many men on base and the Phils connect on one or two big homeruns. I'm unenthusiastically taking the Phillies here at -145. Final score is 7-6. LOCK IT UP

KC @ Detroit - I typically pick against KC with Greinke pitching because you get great value on the moneyline. However, you can't deny the success that Zack has had against the Tigers this season (2-0, 0.50). I expect that he makes runs hard to come by for Detroit yet again. Couple that with the fact that the Tigers are starting that Lucas French dude again and I am sold. One of the rare times the Locks will ever take the Royals as a favorite (-135). Detroit goes down 5-2. LOCK IT UP

Toronto @ Tampa Bay - TAMPA BITCHES! Stevie Janowsky will never get old. Tonight is the night that Scott Kazmir gets back on track. He's shown signs in his first two starts back from the DL. I don't know why I can't take this Brian Tallet guy seriously. Maybe it is his mustache. Although, he has pitched relatively well this year. He'll pitch just well enough tonight to lose. Tampa continues to be a team of streaks with a win tonight. Take the Rays minus the 1.5 runs (+130) as they prevail 6-3. LOCK IT UP

Oakland @ Boston - This one is pretty easy. Oakland got its one and only win in Boston on Monday. Wakefield is undefeated at Fenway and nobody on the A's roster has solid numbers against the knuckleballer. Oakland counters with Trevor Cahill who last starred in a 15-3 beatdown at the hands of the lowly Indians. Prior to that, he got rocked for seven runs in less than four innings against the Rocks. You think the Sox batters are licking their chops? Me too. This one is never close. Take the BoSox minus 1.5 runs at +115 in a rout, 11-3. LOCK IT UP

LA @ NYM - Holy Toledo! This one is a real laugher. Just when you think it can't get any worse for the Pets, they decide to bring back Wild Thing Ollie Perez. Psst, the Dodgers are a league best 17-9 vs. lefties. Psst, the Mets stink to high heaven. Dodgers minus 1.5 runs (+115) is like stealing money. Do it happily. LA wins 9-2. LOCK IT UP

St. Louis @ Milwaukee - Did I mention that this is a great series for baseball fans? Even with a matchup of Wellemeyer vs. Suppan, this game has me excited. Any time that I am stuck on a game involving the Cards, I always come back to Fat Albert and Professor LaRussa. They are just that good. Certainly good enough for me to give the nod to the red birds in this one. Take St. Louie (+105) to win 4-3. LOCK IT UP

NYY @ Minnesota - Yankees dominate the Twins. Sometimes that is just the way things go between teams. Anthony Swarzak is not going to change that. AJ Burnett continues his strong pitching of late and the Yanks get halfway to 100 wins with this victory. Take the Yankees straight up at -155. Final score is 4-3. LOCK IT UP

Cleveland @ Chicago - It would take a whole lot for me to pick the Indians these days. They just can't pitch at all. They throw another lefty (Aaron Laffey) at a team that feasts on lefties (15-9). Jose Contreras is either lights out or shaky from one start to the next. I don't think it will matter which he is tonight. Cleveland stinks and the ChiSox are taking advantage. Sox minus 1.5 runs (+135) is the play here. They win 9-4. LOCK IT UP

Texas @ LAA - These teams are both absolutely raking right now. Neither Vicente Padilla nor Ervin Santana is going to slow these bats down. What an entertaining series. This one should be a dandy as well. Take the over (10) in a game that keeps the scoreboard operator very busy. LOCK IT UP

Happy Hump Day With Afternoon Baseball

I woke up feeling great today. Really spectacular. The sun was shining, the birds were singing and I was just raring to get back to blogging. Maybe these feelings had something to do with the fact that there are a number of day games in the majors today. More likely, they were the direct result of the phenomenal success experienced by Absolute-Locks in yesterday's games.

Going into Tuesday's action I was excited by the prospect of clawing my way to .500. Well, yesterday we tore right past the line of mediocrity and now have it firmly in our rearview mirror. A 10-3 day, including a successful inaugural Two-for-Tuesday wager, will do that for you. With the wind at our back, we now stand at a very healthy 29-23. More importantly, during our recent three day hot streak (21-8) we have hit upon a number of + moneyline winners. All that means is that you make more green every time you win. That is what we're here for. That concludes the chest-thumping for today (you never know when you'll get the chance to do it again). Let's take a look at today's afternoon action (mostly NL games). I'll be back with the evening contests later in the day.

Pittsburgh @ Houston - In a perfect world, this game would be played in an empty stadium in the Arctic and we'd never learn the outcome. Too bad the world is not perfect. I won't validate this series by making a pick.

Atlanta @ Chicago - Until these guys show me that they know where home plate is located, I'm going to continue to play the under in this series. The Cubs are trotting out a guy to make his first ever major league start and I'm not the slightest bit concerned. In fact, that reality helped move the u/o line up to 9.5 which works to our advantage. No way these JV offenses combine for double digit runs. Take the under. LOCK IT UP

Washington @ Colorado - For two days in a row, I went out on a limb thinking the Nats could win in Denver. For two days in a row, I came up one run short. This will not be a case of three times is a charm. I've learned my lesson and will be backing the Rockies today. The Nats are now an unsightly 9-31 on the road. Today's starter, Ross Detwiler, has a road stat line of 0-2, 8.40 with opponents batting .397 against him. The sweep is on, and in a big way. Take Colorado minus the 1.5 runs at +105. Final score alert: 8-3. LOCK IT UP

San Diego @ Arizona - YAWN! See Pittsburgh @ Houston.

Florida @ San Francisco - I am very tempted to walk out of the office and head down the street to AT&T Park for this one. It is a beautiful day in downtown SF Alas, I have important blogging to do. I know that Ryan Sadowski has pitched wonderfully in his first two career starts but how can you expect that to continue with any level of certainty? That said, the Giants have two big things going for them: (1) They are rock solid at home - 28-13; (2) Florida does not fare well against righties - 23-31. Take SF (-116) and hope Sadowski keeps rolling. 5-4. LOCK IT UP

Baltimore @ Seattle - I'm playing a major hunch here (my love for the Birds' young bats make me do that too often). The numbers point to Seattle. They knocked around David Hernandez last time they faced him. M's starter, Jason Vargas, is great at home (2-0, 1.67). Baltimore is sub-.500 vs. lefties. All that said, I think the O's hitters woke up last night and I expect that to carry over into today. Play the Orioles (+102) and my hunch for a satisfying victory. Go Birds! 7-5. LOCK IT UP

Heat Wave: Day 2 - No Relief in Sight

Nothing like a hot streak to put the Absolute-Locks crew in the mood to recap our prognostication results to date:

Tuesday, June 30: 3 wins and 5 losses
Wednesday, July 1: 2 wins and 6 losses
Thursday, July 2: 3 wins and 4 losses
Friday, July 3: 5 wins and 3 losses
Saturday, July 4: In Meat Coma
Sunday, July 5: Still in Coma
Monday, July 6: 6 wins and 2 losses

TOTAL: 19 wins and 20 losses

So I am slowly creeping back to .500 and giving my readers ample opportunity to make their money back or even go cash-flow positive. Today will be no different as I offer analysis on a staggering 12 contests and even introduce my first ever Two-for-Tuesday game. That's right, a total of 13 different LOCK IT UPs to choose from. You can thank me later.

Before we get into the predictions, I would be remiss if I did not acknowledge and thank the second registered follower of Absolute-Locks. Apparently, this gentlemen is labeled "Mark Borton's Friend" by Blogspot. In most situations, that is enough to have you forcibly removed from whatever situation/venue you find yourself in. However, at Absolute-Locks, that connection carries quite some currency. Not quite the value of a clam down on the Jersey Shore, but value nonetheless. So John Cahill, today we speak your name. Welcome to the jungle.

For your browsing pleasure, I present today's winners:

Cincinatti @ Philadelphia - Talk about having your swagger back. How does 22-1 work? Smart money says to keep rolling along with the Phillies and I'm nothing if not smart. The Reds offense was offensive last evening, doing nothing against Cole Hamels. Now, they get to face another young, tough lefty in J.A. Happ (5-0, 2.96). Philly (-142) rolls to a 5-2 victory. LOCK IT UP

Kansas City @ Detroit - I railed against KC's Bruce Chen his last time out and he pitched surprisingly well against the White Sox. I railed against KC's Gil Meche last night and he pitched surprisingly well against the Tigers. I don't expect to be wrong a third time when it comes to KC's starters. Chen doesn't belong in the majors, despite his effort against Chicago. KC stole a game last night against Detroit's pen. They should be content with that. Verlander will hit double digits in Ks and the Tigers will hit Jackie Chan, I mean Bruce Chen. Take Detroit minus 1.5 runs (EVEN) as they win 9-3. LOCK IT UP

Toronto @ Tampa Bay - As Stevie Janowsky might scream, TAMPA BITCHES! Big Game James, as in Mr. Shields, gets back to the comfortable surroundings of the Trop (4-2, 3.18 @ home) and the Blue Jays are trotting out a lefty with not nearly enough vowels in his name (Rzepczynski) for his major league debut. The Jays are now playing to their appropriate talent level after a fast start to the season and the Rays are gaining momentum in fits and starts. I like Longoria and Pena to rudely welcome Mr. Consonant to the bigs. TAMPA BITCHES! Give the Jays the 1.5 runs and collect @ +110 with the Rays. Rays roll 8-3. LOCK IT UP

LA @ NYM - Oh those Pets. They are a certifiable disaster. That beautiful new Citi Field deserves much better but those alarmingly unbeautiful Mets fans do not. And this is just what a struggling team needs, the Dodgers (with Manny) coming to town. I know Pelfrey looked great his last time out but consistency is not necessarily his strong suit. On top of that, I just don't see where the Metropolitans will get their runs with a AAA lineup facing Clayton Kershaw. This will be a nice little Two-for-Tuesday special (as in two winning wagers on one game). Take the Dodgers (-138) and take the under (8.5). LA wins 5-2. LOCK IT UP

Oakland @ Boston - I pulled the A's over BoSox upset out of my hat last night as Beantown made Brett Anderson look like a young Mark Langston. Tonight, I'm not thinking that Dana Eveland will look like anything other than a young, bad Dana Eveland. Match him up against Josh Beckett in Fenway and you get a -260 moneyline for the Sox. That's just a ridiculous line for making dough so we'll assume a Boston Massacre and take the Sox minus 1.5 runs at (gulp) -130. Red Sox trounce the A's 11-3. LOCK IT UP

Atlanta @ Chicago - I'm having a hard time ID'ing a winner here (though I'm leaning toward Chicago). With that in mind, I'm going to push my luck and predict another low scoring affair between these two. Javy Vazquez has pitched great lately and against the Cubs. Ryan Dempster is solid at home and against the Bravos. We'll go with the under (8.5) for a second straight evening. LOCK IT UP

Pittsburgh @ Houston - Nothing about these two enticed me last night and nothing has changed since then. No Interest = No Pick

St. Louis @ Milwaukee - This game, and this series, promise to be a real joy for hardcore baseball fans. Only a game separates these two in the standings and they don't really seem to care for each other. With Wainright and Gallardo on the mound, the under is very much in play here. That said, we're going to bet a team in this one instead. I love Gallardo and think he is on the verge of greatness. However, there is something special going on with Adam Wainwright at the moment. Plus, in a game that promises to be tight and low scoring, Fat Albert and Professor LaRussa tip the scales for me. Take the Cards (+125) and collect with a smile, 3-2. LOCK IT UP

NYY @ Minnesota - The difficult part of handicapping the Yankees (aside from being a fan) is that the moneylines are always widely skewed in their games. Exhibit A: Minny is 10 games over .500 in the Metrodome, have two of the best players in baseball and are a +112 underdog tonight. Regardless, I am still going with the Yanks and expect Sabathia to have a big bounce back start. The career numbers for Twin hitters against CC are atrocious. On the other hand, there is very little data for Yankee hitters against Scott Baker (though he has beaten them twice in two career starts). I'll take CC and the Bombers (-132) to continue their relative domination of Minny with a 5-2 victory. LOCK IT UP

Cleveland @ Chicago - It is really shaping up to be a Tuesday dominated by the favorites. This game will do nothing to change that. How could it? Jeremy Sowers has faced Chicago three times this year, lasting a total of 16 innings and sporting a line of 0-3, 6.75. The Sox have 9 (that is not a typo) regulars hitting better than .330 against Sowers this year, with five going at .400 or higher. Mark Buehrle does not have to be great here (he won't be) and the White Stockings will still prevail big. I'd take Chicago minus 1.5 runs (+130) to win, 9-4. LOCK IT UP

Washington @ Colorado - Here's a dog I can get behind (that didn't sound right). The former Montreal Expos almost delivered for me last night. Problem was that they couldn't score any runs. I love Jordan Zimmermann to give them another shot at victory tonight. The kid has a 2.12 ERA since the start of June. He is getting better with each start. I'll take the Nats (+120) to win this one 6-3. LOCK IT UP

San Diego @ Arizona - ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. See Pittsburgh @ Houston.

Texas @ LAA - I really wanted to take the Rangers here to bounce back from last night's loss. Then I saw that they were starting some guy named Dustin Nippert. I'd feel better if Kenny Powers' brother Dustin was pitching. So you probably think I'm going with the Angels. Not so fast, turbo. Have you seen the career numbers for the Ranger hitters vs. John Lackey? Blalock, Hamilton, Kinsler, Young, etc. They murder this guy. With all this at work, there is only one bet to be made. Take the over (9.5) and thank me later. LOCK IT UP

Baltimore @ Seattle - I have to stop picking against the O's (one of my favorite AL teams). Yet, each day, I can't help myself. They face another tough lefty (Bedard) one night after narrowly avoiding a perfect game at the hands of Washburn. Sure Bedard is just back from the DL but what is Jeremy Guthrie's excuse going to be after the Mariners knock him around Safeco Field? Baltimore needs to get back to Maryland for me to start believing in them again. Seattle (-140) wins 6-3.

Florida @ San Francisco - You'll have to settle for the 12 games I've already picked. I've got no feel for this one at all.

Kick Your Week Off With Some W's

Be forewarned: the following Locks may be beneficial to your bankroll. I'm feeling at least another 5 wins this evening. Let's get to it:

Atlanta @ Chicago - Two of the better starters (Jurrjens vs. Wells) in the NL thus far taking on two offenses that haven't displayed much potency. In fact, these teams rank 10th and 15th in scoring out of 16 National League teams. The Cubs get Aramis Ramirez back from a dislocated shoulder but don't expect him to turn this offense around that quickly. What the Cubs really need is to get the real Alfonso Soriano back from wherever he has gone. This one plays to the under (8.5 runs). LOCK IT UP

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia - There are many elements of this game that are tempting me to go with the Reds. A +146 moneyline; a very good Johnny Cueto pitching for Cincy; Cole Hamels scuffling through the worst stretch of his career, Phillies playing awfully at home this year; etc. However, some times you just have to play your gut. The Phils just swept the Pets this weekend and look to me to be getting their swagger back, They're Fucking In and the Reds are Fucking Out. Phils (-166) win 6-2. LOCK IT UP

Kansas City @ Detroit - First off, I don't trust Armando Galarraga one bit. He's too young, too wild and too inconsistent to try to win money on. Good thing for us that Gil Meche is starting opposite of him tonight. The Tigers big boys absolutely own Meche as demonstrated yet again when he didn't make it out of the 3rd inning against Detroit earlier this season. The Tigers are rolling and will continue to roll, BIG TIME. Take them minus 1.5 runs at +145. Final score 10-5. LOCK IT UP

Oakland @ Boston - This is another game that appears fairly straightforward on paper. I guess that is why the Sox are installed as -200 moneyline favorites. Yet, I haven't had any luck going with favorites in the -200 range lately and you can't really win much money on them either. Perhaps this is a desperate reach by a Yankee fan, but I'm going to take OakTown getting the plus 1.5 runs (-120). The few guys on Oakland that have faced John Smoltz have had some decent success. Plus, Brett Anderson had a decent start vs. Boston earlier this year. I'm already regretting this selection. LOCK IT UP

Pittsburgh @ Houston - Game not worth words or pick. Getting sleepy.

Washington @ Colorado - NOPE! No freaking way that I am getting on the Jason Marquis bandwagon. Especially at -210 (the most ridiculous moneyline of the season). Really? Did this guy morph into Tom Seaver when I wasn't looking? Not likely. More likely is the fact that he has a massive clunker stored up in that right arm of his. I'm not even taking the runs with the Nats. I'm going for the big score (+175). Those DC Demons take the game 5-4. LOCK IT UP

San Diego @ Arizona - See Pittsburgh @ Houston. Very sleepy.

Texas @ LAA - Far and away the Game of the Night. These guys are slowly building a saucy little rivalry. Neither Millwood nor Weaver looked very good against these opponents last Wednesday. Strictly based on venue, I am going to have to go with the Halos. Weaver is lights out in the land of Disney (5-1, 1.83). I think runs get scored here but LAA (-155) accounts for more of them, 7-5. LOCK IT UP

Baltimore @ Seattle - I wanted to take the O's; I really did. I tried to talk myself into taking them. I love the young bats. They have the AL East pedigree. Bergesen's been pitching very well. Then I noticed that you could pretty much get the same odds on Seattle at home with Washburn pitching. Seriously? That was enough to halt my Baltimore daydream. The under might be in play here as well if you are feeling lucky. I'll stick with the M's (-111) to win 4-3. LOCK IT UP

Florida @ SF - I love Matt Cain. Florida is a long way from Miami. The Giants offense will figure out Sean West the second time around. Sometimes it is just that easy. SF (-160) cruises to the 5-1 win. LOCK IT UP

The Reports of My Demise Have Been Exaggerated

Greetings Earthlings. Following a two-day hiatus that was dominated by grilled meats, I have returned feeling rested and productive. This optimism is further strengthened by the first winning day on record for Absolute Locks. We went 5-3 on Friday (though I originally convinced myself that I was an even more impressive 6-2). Needles to say, I feel that I am back on track and all casualties are firmly in my rear view mirror. Continued thanks to our loyal followers and commenters.

There is one early game going today but I'm going to pass on analyzing that contest. It features the Blue Jays looking to avoid a four game sweep in NY. I'm going to kick back and enjoy following that one as a fan. I'll be back on a bit later with a broad overview of tonight's MLB action.

Redemption Song, I Think

Well, well, well. The comments are pouring in and they are of the type that I would expect considering the sources and my performance to date. Apparently, I am achieving my objective of entertaining my readers but doing so for all the wrong reasons. If my goal was to be someone that got laughed at, instead of laughed with, I would have gone to clown college. So now I find myself at one of those proverbial forks in the road. A turning point at which one must select between two paths knowing that once started down the chosen path, there is no way back to the point of origination. I'm like President Palmer before he starred in 24 and those annoying Allstate commercials. I'm thinking all the way back to Heat when he played an ex-con short-order cook trying to piece his life back together. Well, he had to choose between continuing to grill eggs or going for the big score as part of Deniro's crew. His choice ended up with him dead in a car. I'm hoping that my fate turns out a bit better.

So what are my two choices you ask? (1) I can let the commenters' antagonism demoralize me and force me to hang up my spurs a mere three days and 8-15 record into this adventure; or, (2) I can stand tall, ignore the potshots from the masses and continue to deliver a high-quality product whose power of prediction is sure to improve. An easy choice, I agree. I will select (1). With that, I a bid you farewell and thank you for your short period of support.

HA! Not a good damn chance in hell that I will snap under the first signs of adversity. I am strong like bull. I have a brain like a scientist and an arm like a fucking cannon. Well maybe not the arm part but you get the point. I am Kenny Powers once he realizes that he needs to get back on top. This is my speech to the school over the PA. I AM A FUCKING CHAMPION. Somewhere Stevie Janowsky is applauding and trying to get the fat kid to hit the cymbals.

With that, I ask anyone with the balls to get behind a fallen hero on his way back to the top to immerse themselves in the following glimpses into the future and leverage this insight into an expanded bank account. LOCK IT UP!

Toronto at NYY - Yanks bounce back from an inconceivable defeat at the hands of the lowly Mariners. AJ Burnett is coming off his best start of the year and is beginning to hit his stride. My gut tells me he picks up his buddy CC and treats his former teammates with much contempt. Toronto's Brian Tallet is a relatively soft-tossing lefty with pervasive control issues whose numbers in day games are much worse than when he pitches under the stars. He's in trouble today. Take Yanks minus 1.5 runs at +105. NY wins 7-3. LOCK IT UP

Milwaukee at Chicago - This is an interesting game that I can see going either way and/or getting out of control offensively. My guess is that the Brewers wish they didn't have to keep starting Jeff Suppan, especially against the Cubs. He's been lit up by the Cubbies in both games he's faced them this season. However, the Cubs have the Gary Busey of baseball taking the hill for them. Part insane and part potentially violent, Carlos Zambrano is certainly worth the price of admission. The question is: will he pitch up to his talent level or down to his mental capacity. I'm thinking somewhere in between but today that is enough as the Cubs offense keeps rolling. Take the Cubs, minus 1.5 runs at +125. Final score is 8-5. LOCK IT UP

Seattle at Boston - In my mind, this game hinges on one very simple question: How well will Tim Wakefield's knuckleball be moving today? If Wakefield is on and keeps the Mariners in check, the Boston offense will do enough against King Felix to get the win. However, if the knuckleball is not in top form, then the Mariners will put up enough runs for Hernandez to lead them into the W column. I'm leaning toward the latter scenario. Wakefield's knuckler has a tendency to become more hittable during the warmer summer months. I like the Mariners to secure the victory 5-3. Take them to win outright at -101. LOCK IT UP

TB @ Texas - I was very surprised by the line in this game which has the Rays at -143. Don't get me wrong, I like the Rays and the way they have been playing lately. However, this is only Scott Kazmir's second start off the DL and I haven't seen anything to convince me he is back to his old self. Plus, it's going to be in the high 90s in Arlington today. Not the conditions you want a guy working his way back into shape to experience. Texas seems to have something special going for them this year, especially at home. They just took 2 out of 3 from Anaheim who was one of the hottest teams in baseball. The Rays aren't going to scare these guys. I'll take the Rangers (+123) to roll in this one. Final score is 6-4. LOCK IT UP

St. Louis @ Cincinnati - Sometimes a game is just obvious and not in need of much analysis. This is one of those games. The Cardinals are a no-brainer. Pineiro has been pitching well. Homer Bailey has never pitched well. The Cards are a scrappy, fundamental team that knows how to win. The Reds are not. The Cardinals have Fat Albert. Plus, this is another line that just doesn't make sense to me. I'll take advantage of that. Cards (-116) win 7-3. LOCK IT UP

Detroit @ Minnesota - Minnesota at home = great. Minnesota at home with Kevin Slowey pitching = really great. Simple as that. Mauer and Morneau have there way with some guy named Lucas French (I did not make that up) making his first start. Really? Some guy named French pitching the day before Independence Day? You think Detroit has any chance? Twins will cover the -1.5 runs to pay you +120. LOCK IT UP

Baltimore @ LAA - Same script as last night. Baltimore is on the wrong coast against a vastly superior team. Ervin Santana follows John Lackey in showing Angels fans that their best pitchers are rounding back into form. Halos make this look easy and cover the -1.5 runs. Take them at +130 in a 9-4 victory. LOCK IT UP

Chicago at Kansas City - I'm going out on a limb here because I think Vegas always overvalues the Royals when Zack Greinke pitches. Does he have the chance to throw a shutout every time he pitches? Absolutely. Do the Royals have the chance to not give Greinke enough runs to work with? Most definitely. It's a bit of a reach but I like having the money line in my favor and the Sox have won me money three straight days. I'm sticking with it. Sox (+130) win 4-2. LOCK IT UP

Houston, We Have a Comment

It is only fitting to begin today's communication with the acknowledgement of our very first fan. Actually, fan is likely not the right word. Perhaps adversary or heckler would be more on point. Regardless, we're pleased to have someone out there reading our nonsense. Let's just hope TheBigA isn't taking any of our gambling advice. A hearty thanks to you and we hope you keep coming back.

On to our favorite topic: America's Pastime. With the 4th of July just two days away it seems appropriate to take a moment to rhapsodize on the beauty of this country's finest treasure: Baseball. There is nothing in life quite as perfect as this game. Escaping the bases loaded jam. The hit and run single right in the hole created by the second baseman covering the bag. A streaking CF tracking down what was sure to be a gapper. Pitching changes to exploit a matchup that only blows up in the face of the manager. These are the simple pleasures in life and I hope you all get an opportunity to enjoy them this holiday weekend.

I have now delayed the recap of my picks as long as possible. Time to take the old medicine. I labeled Tuesday's 3-5 effort an embarrassment. So what description does that leave me for yesterday's 2-6 debacle, including an 0-4 afternoon session? Humiliating? Not strong enough. Despicable? Getting closer. I've got it: Emasculating. That is exactly right. Yesterday's returns feel as if I've been stripped of my manhood. Not good. Not good at all. So after two days, this experiment has yielded a 5-11 record, some broken furniture and a bruised ego. Alas, this shall be rectified. Today, I will reclaim my masculinity with a collection of winners. As I like to say about my strongest picks, LOCK IT UP!

There is an abbreviated schedule of games tonight with many AL teams taking the day off and two day games already underway. As such, I've decided to offer the readers a treat. I'll provide in-depth, can't-miss, prophetic previews of all 7 evening tilts. And there off:

Houston @ San Diego - I like the under (7). I really like the under, especially in this park, Both Wandy and Correia have pitched well this year but Correia has had the hotter hand as of late. The Padres sport an impressive home record and also fare well against lefties. Writing this has helped me talk myself into considering taking SD to win (-112) but definitely taking the under. Pads win 4-2. LOCK IT UP

Philadelphia @ Atlanta - This is another game that screams for the under (8). Javy Vazquez has been pitching brilliantly lately but has only one win in his last six starts (shame on those Braves' bats). Having him in the mound has not signaled good things for the Bravos and I'm not betting that is going to change tonight. Philly trots out J.A. Happ and his 3-0, 1.67 road split. They love to play away from home and will be looking to bounce back from a horrendous Cole Hamels start last night (I know the feeling Mr. Hamels). I think one of the Phillies big bats (Utley, Howard, Worth) comes up with a big timely hit in this one. Phils (+120) come out on top 4-1. LOCK IT UP

Seattle @ NY - Jason Vargas is the exact type of young, relatively unknown pitcher that typically gives the Bombers fits. The only Yankee who has ever seen Vargas is Cody Ransom and that was in the minors. However, that's not going to be nearly enough for Seattle. The Yanks are rolling once again (7 in a row) and turn to their ace to complete this sweep. The only thing that might help the Mariners is the weather in NY. In the summer of NY precipitation, the Al Rokers are calling for some more showers tonight. Yanks still win big, 8-2. Take them minus 1.5 runs at -135. LOCK IT UP

SF @ St. Louis - I've had trouble picking winners in this series so far (0-2) so I will go in a different direction with this one. Cards' starter Todd Wellemeyer is abysmal, even by my handicapping standards. The Cards' lineup has a number of guys who have historically murdered Barry Zito (exhibit A: Fat Albert - .556 2 HRs and 8 RBIs). Even though these aren't two prolific offenses (note last night's 2-1 extra inning affair), the pitchers put up no resistance against the over (9). Go high in this one as someone wins 8-5. LOCK IT UP

Milwaukee @ Chicago - I really like the Brew Crew and am a big fan of Ryan Braun. On the other hand, I can't stand this Cubs team. They are a bunch of underachieving mental patients. So I'm taking Milwaukee, right? WRONG. Cubs at home and Dempster at home are both big positives for the South Siders. Plus, I can't back a horse with Seth McClung on its back. Cubbies (-150) start this series on the right foot with a 7-4 win. LOCK IT UP

Chicago @ KC - This one seems so easy that it scares me. The Sox are finally clicking with 5 straight wins putting them over .500. The Royals are scuffling (what else is new). The Sox have the dependable Mark Buehrle taking the hill (note: Royals get exposed by lefties). The Royals hand the ball to Jackie Chan, I mean Bruce Chen (note: Sox expose lefties). Chen has failed to stick with such pitching powerhouses as the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros in recent years. Not exactly a confidence inspiring resume. Comfortably take the Sox at minus 1.5 runs (+115). The prevail 7-2. LOCK IT UP

Baltimore @ LAA - Cross country flight with no off day, check. Day after a major bullpen meltdown, check. Facing John Lackey who looks like he is finally healthy again and who has achieved much career success against you (6-3, 3.46), check. Opponent that is pissed after dropping the last two games of a crucial series against a key division rival, check. Mix this all up and it pours a tasty but wildly non-competitive game for the O's. Angels roll 6-1. Take the -1.5 runs here (+130). LOCK IT UP

THE HORROR.....THE HORROR

I've really gone and done it good this time. By going 0-4 in the early games I highlighted, I've made a boisterous proclamation that at least one of the two following statements is accurate:

• Betting on baseball, regardless of how much you know, is exceedingly more difficult than any other sport.

• I am a complete moron who completely overestimates his knowledge and feel for the game of baseball.

Undaunted, I will continue with my efforts to pick these games correctly in an effort to support the gambling habits of my readers. Are there any of you out there?

That said, I do think that the amazing level of parity being demonstrated this season, as well as the absolute atrociousness of the average major league bullpen, has made this a particularly tough campaign in which to make money. Gone are the days that you could pick the better team with the far better starting pitcher and cruise to victory. We've entered the realm of almost daily late inning comebacks of 4 or more runs. Perhaps it is time to shift to the first 5 inning lines for some of these games? I'll give it thought and look to begin to sprinkle in some of those picks in the days and weeks to come.

Hang in there loyal readers, I'm working to take the bumps out of this road. We'll be on fire before long.

Pick Recap - June 30; Night Game Profiles - July 1

Before we get to previewing tonight's MLB action, I thought it was necessary to take a look back on yesterday's predictions and critique our work.

The Good:

White Sox Spank Cleveland - We got a great payout on this +170 moneyline. As predicted, the Sox good career numbers against Cliff Lee proved prophetic as they knocked the lefty silly. A nice change of pace for the Indians as it wasn't the bullpen that got lit up.

Tampa Bay Shuts Down Toronto - Matt Garza was his typical dominant self against the Canadians. We even nailed the final score, 4-1. Rays paid on a -122 moneyline.

Texas Throttles Anaheim - We didn't believe in Joe Saunders yesterday and he proved us right.

The Not-So-Good:

SF at St. Louis - Chris Carpenter pitched the way we expected Jason Marquis to pitch.

Detroit at Oakland - The offenses couldn't put big hits together in key situations and ran the bases like little leaguers, leaving us a run shy on the over/under.

Boston at Baltimore - Epic collapse by Sox pen. Can't say we didn't enjoy this, even though it cost us money.

Colorado at LA - Jason Marquis pitched the way we expected Chris Carpenter to pitch.

Mets at Milwaukee - That's what we get for putting any sort of faith in the Metrosexuals.

Overall: 3-5 is an embarrassing way to start but it gives us a place from which to climb.


ON TO TONIGHT'S ACTION

Chicago at Cleveland - Nothing has changed since yesterday. Cleveland is still atrocious. The bullpen will have an opportunity to assume its role as punching bag. Sox also showed that they like to face lefties with their beatdown of Cliff Lee last night. Take Chicago -104 and hope Jose Contreras doesn't implode. Sox win 8-3.

Chicago at Pittsburgh - Battle of two pitchers with very little in the way of track records. Most batters will be seeing these guys for the very first time. With that in mind, I'll take the better team (though that might be a point for a spirited debate). Cubs prevail 6-3 at -137.

LAA at Texas - Nice pitching matchup in the big rubber game between #1 and #2 in the AL West. This one will be tight throughout but I like the way that Weaver's been throwing and his career numbers at the Ballpark in Arlington are impressive. Angels take it 4-3 at -110.

San Francisco at St. Louis - I learned my lesson yesterday dissing that juggernaut Giants offense. More importantly, Matt Cain takes the hill for SF. Good enough for me, especially at a +129 moneyline. Giants take down the Cards again, 4-1.

Thursday's Early Slate

Before I sift through the rubble that is yesterday's results, I offer a few quick-hitters for our Thursday afternoon games. By the way, there is nothing better for helping you slip through a work day on the West Coast than a handful of baseball games kicking off at 10 a.m.

NY at Milwaukee - The Pets couldn't break into the win column with Johan on the hill and an early 2-0 lead. What makes anyone think that they'll pull out a W against the Brewers' ace? Pelfrey will keep it close but the Crew pulls out a 5-2 win. Take the -1.5 runs on Milwaukee at -110.

TB at Toronto - Gonna keep riding the Ray train until it crashes. Shields is sketchy on the road and Romero is tough little lefty, but I'm staying with TB at -120. 4-3.

Detroit at Oakland - Verlander makes money. Period. I can't believe this line is Detroit -120. I'll take it happily. Detroit over Oakland 7-3.

Boston at Baltimore - Love the spunk shown by the O's bats against the Big's best bullpen. I think some of that confidence carries over. Plus the Sox pen is a bit gassed. Also like how this kid Bergesen pitches at Camden Fields. Minor upset here. Take O's +135. 6-5.