With afternoon baseball winding down, it looks like I'll probably close this session at 2-2. Not great, but not bad either since you'd likely break even with the various moneylines in play. Speaking of which, I am going to introduce a new value metric to the blog in the near-term. This will be designed to demonstrate what the financial return on my picks would be if they were to be made. For this exercise, we'll assume that every bet is a $10 bet. I'll go back through all the picks to date and calculate what my record nets out to in terms of real American greenbacks. After all, that is what matters. Not a W/L record. If I was only concerned about wins and losses, I'd never take a team to cover a 1.5 run line, I'd just pick them to win outright. With that, let's look at tonight's winners:
Cincinnati @ Philadelphia - It is difficult to have strong feelings on this match-up between two very much unknown starting pitchers. Homer Bailey has been terrible in his career but was exceptional in his last start. Rodrigo Lopez made his first major league start in years and looked excellent....against the Mets. My guess here is that Bailey's control issues put too many men on base and the Phils connect on one or two big homeruns. I'm unenthusiastically taking the Phillies here at -145. Final score is 7-6. LOCK IT UP
KC @ Detroit - I typically pick against KC with Greinke pitching because you get great value on the moneyline. However, you can't deny the success that Zack has had against the Tigers this season (2-0, 0.50). I expect that he makes runs hard to come by for Detroit yet again. Couple that with the fact that the Tigers are starting that Lucas French dude again and I am sold. One of the rare times the Locks will ever take the Royals as a favorite (-135). Detroit goes down 5-2. LOCK IT UP
Toronto @ Tampa Bay - TAMPA BITCHES! Stevie Janowsky will never get old. Tonight is the night that Scott Kazmir gets back on track. He's shown signs in his first two starts back from the DL. I don't know why I can't take this Brian Tallet guy seriously. Maybe it is his mustache. Although, he has pitched relatively well this year. He'll pitch just well enough tonight to lose. Tampa continues to be a team of streaks with a win tonight. Take the Rays minus the 1.5 runs (+130) as they prevail 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Oakland @ Boston - This one is pretty easy. Oakland got its one and only win in Boston on Monday. Wakefield is undefeated at Fenway and nobody on the A's roster has solid numbers against the knuckleballer. Oakland counters with Trevor Cahill who last starred in a 15-3 beatdown at the hands of the lowly Indians. Prior to that, he got rocked for seven runs in less than four innings against the Rocks. You think the Sox batters are licking their chops? Me too. This one is never close. Take the BoSox minus 1.5 runs at +115 in a rout, 11-3. LOCK IT UP
LA @ NYM - Holy Toledo! This one is a real laugher. Just when you think it can't get any worse for the Pets, they decide to bring back Wild Thing Ollie Perez. Psst, the Dodgers are a league best 17-9 vs. lefties. Psst, the Mets stink to high heaven. Dodgers minus 1.5 runs (+115) is like stealing money. Do it happily. LA wins 9-2. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Milwaukee - Did I mention that this is a great series for baseball fans? Even with a matchup of Wellemeyer vs. Suppan, this game has me excited. Any time that I am stuck on a game involving the Cards, I always come back to Fat Albert and Professor LaRussa. They are just that good. Certainly good enough for me to give the nod to the red birds in this one. Take St. Louie (+105) to win 4-3. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Minnesota - Yankees dominate the Twins. Sometimes that is just the way things go between teams. Anthony Swarzak is not going to change that. AJ Burnett continues his strong pitching of late and the Yanks get halfway to 100 wins with this victory. Take the Yankees straight up at -155. Final score is 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ Chicago - It would take a whole lot for me to pick the Indians these days. They just can't pitch at all. They throw another lefty (Aaron Laffey) at a team that feasts on lefties (15-9). Jose Contreras is either lights out or shaky from one start to the next. I don't think it will matter which he is tonight. Cleveland stinks and the ChiSox are taking advantage. Sox minus 1.5 runs (+135) is the play here. They win 9-4. LOCK IT UP
Texas @ LAA - These teams are both absolutely raking right now. Neither Vicente Padilla nor Ervin Santana is going to slow these bats down. What an entertaining series. This one should be a dandy as well. Take the over (10) in a game that keeps the scoreboard operator very busy. LOCK IT UP
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