Today is a big day in the history of Absolute Locks for it is the first time that we have ever provided picks for a total of 14 MLB games. We still have room to improve and tackle the holy grail of 15 games, but that is reserved for another time. Fortunately for us, it appears that pick #1 is well on its way to coming in as Fat Albert continues to terrify NL pitchers. That Cards win might even be final by the time we post this.
Before we get to the rest of the day's picks, let's recap what happened yesterday and update the proprietary Bank Account Tracker (BAT). We started strong yesterday, thanks again to Fat Albert and a rousing Cardinals comeback. We were 2-1 in afternoon action. The evening was not as nice to us as our long shot of the day was a few pitches from coming in before Franklin Gutierrez connected on a three-run homerun to beat the Rangers. All told, we went 3-4 at night for a combined 5-5 record on Thursday. In keeping the with the break even theme, our wagers did just that: broke completely even for no change to the BAT. We still stand +$36. Now to tonight's winners:
Cleveland @ Detroit - Cleveland's one and only reliable starter takes the hill tonight in the person of Cliff Lee. However, unless Lee throws a complete game, that atrocious bullpen will rear its ugly head at some point during the game. While pitching fairly well against Detroit this season (2.40), Lee has an 0-2 record to show for it. Edwin Jackson has turned the corner from frustrating prospect to solid starter. Detroit (-141) is the better team with the better pitcher. Take them to win 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia - This Penn-Sla-Vania rivalry kicks off tonight in a small stadium with two pitchers who have trouble with surrendering the long ball. Joe Blanton has been very solid of late and the Phils have worked through their early season difficulties with winning at home. They get to face a lefty, albeit a tough one, in Zack Duke. That is music to the Phillies' ears as they perform mightily against southpaws (19-11). Take Philly minus the 1.5 runs (+115). They'll win 7-4. LOCK IT UP
Toronto @ Baltimore -Not knowing which way to go in this matchup of AL East doormats, I'm forced to cave to my crush on the O's young hitters. Hitting should be something this game doesn't lack with the opposing starters both sporting ERAs in the 6.20s. Neither team has been on fire of late but Toronto is struggling more with only two wins in its last ten games. Take the Birds from America (-110) to win 8-6. LOCK IT UP
Cincinnati @ NYM - If something ain't broke, don't fix it. That is how I feel about picking against the Mets, a team whose motto is, "We know it's broke but are too inept to fix it." Bronson Arroyo's recent outings absolutely terrify me but I'll stick with the Mets finding a way to lose. Besides, Cincy just played the superior Phils very tough. I know the Philadelphia Phillies, and NY Mets, you are no Philadelphia Phillies. Reds (-105) take the series opener 6-5. LOCK IT UP
Kansas City @ Boston - The BoSox are going to bounce back in a big, big way tonight. It is that simple. Look to John Lester to dominate a team that doesn't hit lefties well. I don't see Brian Bannister shutting down the Sox based on his 0-3, 8.22 career line against them. Disclaimer: I would not mind being wrong about this one at all. Take Boston minus 1.5 runs at -125. LOCK IT UP
Oakland @ Tampa Bay - TAMPA BITCHES! You'll get sick of reading that long before I get sick of writing it. The Rays are tough, tough, tough at the Trop. They're also playing some pretty good baseball, something that nobody is going to say about these Athletic Supporters. In a statistical oddity, very few of Jeff Niemann's starts have come at home. I think he'll enjoy this one, as will the Rays' bats. The A's can't hang in Stevie Janowsky's favorite city. Take TB minus the 1.5 runs (+125) to win, 7-3. LOCK IT UP
LA @ Milwaukee - This is a tough stretch for the Brewers. First the Cardinals roll through town and now the Dodgers bring the ML's best record to Miller Park. I really like Braun & Co but have not been able to pick them much recently. That trend continues tonight as Chad Billingsly faces Brandon Looper. Who do you think has the advantage there? Ryan Braun is absolutely right that the Brewers need some real pitchers in order to contend. Take LA to win (-128). They will, 5-2. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ Houston - The boycott continues. Even with Roy Oswalt on the hill. Look elsewhere for action tonight.
Chicago @ Minnesota - Chicago comes in playing some of its best baseball of the year and with one of baseball's hottest pitchers on the mound. More importantly, they've made me consistent dough this past week. So it is only natural that I am taking the Twinkies in this one. For one, I doubt John Danks' run of complete domination will continue against Minnesota. There are a number of Twins that have hit him well throughout their careers (Morneau, Mauer and Kubel). Secondly, Nick Blackburn loves to pitch in the Metrodome and I love it when he does. I'll take the Twins (-127) to bounce back from the sweep at the hands of the Yankees. They win 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ Colorado - I'm tempted to go with the under again in this series but have been sufficiently scared off by Coors Field. So it comes down to picking a winner instead. Something is pulling me toward the Braves springing the upset. Derek Lowe is due for a bounce back performance one of these days. Tonight seems as good as any. As good as Umbald Jiminez has looked this year, he's prone to some lapses within games. Going out on a limb with the Braves (+128). 5-4, LOCK IT UP
UPDATE: THE CARDS VICTORY JUST WENT FINAL - THAT'S 1-0 ON THE DAY FOR +$9. SANK YOU
Florida @ Arizona - Here's another game that I'm going to go a less obvious way with. Dan Harren is an absolute stud, especially at home. I went against two other studs last night (that didn't sound right). Both Lincecum and King Felix burned me (that didn't sound right either). That said, I think Ricky Nolasco has the potential to completely shut down the woeful Dbacks offense and deal Danny Boy another tough luck loss. I'm playing the hunch that Florida rides the momentum from last night's big comeback and gets the win. Take the Fish (+127) in a 3-2 game. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ LAA - The solution to Joe Saunders' recent struggles do not lie in the Yankees' lineup, Joba loves to pitch anywhere other than the new Stadium so Angel Stadium will do. Hunter and Guerrero are out, the Yankees are FUCKING IN! I like them so much that I'll lay the 1.5 runs @ +120. Bombers keep rolling, 8-3. LOCK IT UP
Texas @ Seattle - The Rangers will not lose two in a row at Safeco Field. Plain and simple. This season, Brandon Morrow has a 67.50 ERA vs. Texas with the Rangers hitting .714 against him. That is ridiculous. I'm going for the big money here. Texas minus 1.5 runs (+140) in a rout, 9-2. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ San Francisco - I was going to avoid picking this game altogether but knowing that the infamous James Charlesworth will be in attendance at AT&T Park tonight made me change my mind. I'm sending this analysis out in honor of Jimmy C. No way the Giants should be a -144 favorite with Jonathan Sanchez on the mound, EVER! For that reason alone, take the Padres (+124). 6-5 Final. LOCK IT UP
LATE BREAKING NEWS: Jimmy Charlesworth is a late scratch for tonight's game with a case of explosive diarrhea. I'm tempting to cancel my Giants/Padres pick based on this new information but that would leave me a game short of the 14 picks that I advertised. All picks stand and I'll deal with JC when I see him.
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