I Will Survive

Smarting from a historically bad Saturday, the Locks is focused on redemption today, the last day of games prior to the All Star game. We're up early, coffee in hand, combing through reams and reams of data in order to uncover the nitty gritty details that will point to today's victorious teams. So with that, we'll put yesterday's 3-8 record and -$50 BAT aside and move ahead. Going into today's action we now sport a cumulative BAT of +$8. Time to rebuild. Work drugs!

Cleveland at Detroit - This rubber match between the Injins and Tigers will not be close. Not when the pitching matchup of that of an All-Star (Justin Verlander) and a washed-up, bag of dog meat (Tomo Ohka). Verlander is not always lights out but he sure kills Cleveland (2-0, 0.56, 22Ks in 16 innings and opponent batting average of .080). Take the Tigers minus 1.5 runs at -110. 9-2 Detroit. LOCK IT UP

St. Louis @ Chicago - Game 1 - The Cards and Cubs play a double-tilt today with Game 1 featuring Big Z vs. Kyle Loshe. While it is always difficult for me to pick against the Cards and my confidence in Carlos Zambrano is shaky at best, I was startled by some data I uncovered this morning. The career numbers for Chicago's biggest boppers against Loshe are outrageous. Derek Lee - .389; Aramis Ramirez - .538 with a HR; Alfonso Soriano - .393 with 2 HRs; Ryan Theriot - .526. Those are some impressive track records that cannot be ignored. As long as we are talking track records, we should also mention that Ryan Ludwick has a career .750 average with 2 HRs against Big Z. Watch out: the over might be a solid bet today. However, we're just going to bet the Cubbies (-140) to win Game 1 today. They will prevail 7-4. LOCK IT UP

Cincinnati @ NYM - The Pets showed a bit of spunk yesterday and made me look bad. I do not like being made to look like a fool by the Pets. I will dispatch Aaron Harang and the Reds to exact my revenge today. It should not be too difficult. Harang is a solid starter and the Mets are sub-competent hitters. Which Mike Pelfrey will show up for the Mets today? Who knows but I'll bet it isn't a Mike Pelfrey that leads the Mets to victory. Take the Reds (-110) to win 5-2. LOCK IT UP.

Kansas City @ Boston - This is the craziest moneyline that I have ever seen for a ML game. The Red Sox are -310 favorites behind Josh Beckett today. That puts the Royals as +250 dogs and an incredible attractive gamble. Hell, you can even get +125 on the Royals getting 1.5 runs. This is a battle between logic (Beckett should lead Red Sox to huge win over the Bruce Chen-led Royals) and opportunity (a Royal win will be worth at least 2 ordinary wins from a money standpoint). These Royals have shown me something throughout this entire series with the Sox. They are scrappy. I'm going to roll the dice and take them plus the 1.5 runs (+125) in a bet that I can't believe I am supporting. Credit my hatred for Red Sox Nation. I think the Sox win a nail-biter 6-5. LOCK IT UP.

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia - Impressive comeback by the Phils yesterday but not enough to cover the 1.5 runs that I was giving Pitt. That is two straight games in which the Phils won without covering. I don't anticipate this trend continuing. The Pirates are out of bullets. They'll score runs off of J.A. Happ but not enough. I like the Phils to finally cover the 1.5 runs (-115) and win 8-5. LOCK IT UP

Toronto @ Baltimore - As you like know by now. I really like the young Baltimore bats (even though they are prone to lapses in production). I didn't give Mr. Consonant any credit for his ML debut last week against the Rays and he was impressive. I'm not counting on Rzepczynski to repeat that effort. My O's break out offensively in this one to support Brad Bergesen who is solid at Camden Yards. Take the O's (-120) to win 7-4. LOCK IT UP

Oakland @ Tampa Bay - TAMPA BITCHES. Not sure who showed up in those A's uniforms yesterday but that was a highly unusual offensive output. They should have saved some runs for today's contest against Big Game James. Brett Anderson comes back to earth after his career performance against Boston last week. TB rolls into the All Star break with a big win. Take them minus the 1.5 runs (+110) to win going away, 6-1. LOCK IT UP

LA @ Milwaukee - This is tough one as I like both of these young starters. In cases like this, I usually break my mind lock by taking the dog and the better payout. That is certainly not a bad option when the dog is the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw on the hill. He is much steadier than Yovani Gallardo, though Gallardo always has the chance to absolutely dominate any lineup. I think the Dodgers (+112) take this game, and the series. They'll win 4-3. LOCK IT UP

Washington @ Houston - I can't believe I am picking this game. That goes to show how much I like the young arm of Jordan Zimmermann. Believe it or not, the Nats are nearly even on the moneyline on the road. Outrageous. So much so, that I'll take them. Go with Washington (-110) and enjoy the performance put on by Zimmermann. Nats win 4-1. LOCK IT UP

Chicago @ Minnesota - The Twins are another team that I hate to pick against, especially at home. However, the Sox are absolutely on fire. No team is more upset at the timing of the All Star game then these guys. I'm sure they want to keep on playing. I think they'll ride the arm of Mark Buehrle into the break with a big road win. They've already knocked around Scott Baker one time this year. Take the ChiSox (+114) to win this one, 7-4. LOCK IT UP

Atlanta @ Colorado - I was going to beg out of picking this game as I have no feel for who will win. Then I thought, that is a big-time pussy move and I have to restore the confidence of my loyal followers. So, I will give you a route for making money on this one. That route runs directly through the over. I see a slugfest Sunday afternoon going down in the Mile High City. In fact, Alison Borton may even be able to see some balls flying past her plane as it approaches Denver this afternoon. Take the over (10) in this one in a high-scoring affair in the neighborhood or 9-8. LOCK IT UP

NYY @ LAA - This is a game in which I will pull a pussy move. No pick here. I'm just a shell-shocked Yankees fan at the moment.

San Diego @ San Francisco - The Padres are awful. I won't push my luck again with the Giants offense to cover a 1.5 run line but I do expect them to win. The Padres are awful (did I say that already)? Take SF (-133) to win 4-2. LOCK IT UP

Florida @ Arizona - Love Josh Johnson. Don't love Doug Davis. That's enough for me. I'm going to go so far as to say that the Fish cover a run and a half on the road. Take Florida minus 1.5 runs (+140) as they win this game 5-2. LOCK IT Up

Texas @ Seattle - Can't believe that I've picked Seattle so many times in this series. They have just been some tough match-ups for the Rangers and the M's are playing well. Texas does not hit Erik Bedard historically and are starting Kenny Powers' brother Dustin Nippert today. I'm riding the Mariner momentum in this one. Take Seatlle (-148) to win and take the series. Final score is 7-4. LOCK IT UP

St. Louis @ Chicago -Game 2 - It is very difficult to sweep a double header in the big leagues. I picked the Cubs in the early game, so I'm going with my Cardinals in this one. Adam Wainright is one of the majors best starters at this point. Ride him to victory. Take Cards (+101) to win the nightcap 4-2. LOCK IT UP