After another tough night, we're back in full-on Kenny Powers mode, with his church bitch sister-in-law staring at him with her dead eyes. Last time we hit this low, we got a big-time motivational talk from Dr. Powers and turned this thing around. Now we find ourselves at a crossroads once again. Which Kenny do we follow:
Are we the:
Kenny "From this moment forward, People's Champion, the Shelby Sensation, the Reverse Apache Master, the man with the golden dick, Dr. Cock and Balls...that Kenny Powers is now dead, and he will never pick up a baseball ever fucking again" Powers
Or are we the:
Kenny "Undaunted, I knew the game was mine to win. Just like in life, all of my successes depend on me. I'm the man who has the ball. I'm the man who can throw it faster than fuck, So that is why I am better than everyone in the world. Kiss my ass and suck my dick, everyone" Powers
I do believe that we here at the Locks represent the latter KP. The one that burns ass in a non-homosexual kind of way. That is why we are going to put Friday's 6-9 effort which eroded another $39 into our BAT firmly in the rear view mirror. The trade deadline has passed and now we know who is going where and what these teams will all look like. No more excuses for any days when we miss more games than we hit. I do declare that our stats to date (161-149 with a +$151 BAT) represent a low point. From here we climb upwards and onwards. That starts with Saturday's slate of day games:
LA @ Atlanta - We expect the top tier of teams in the MLB to begin to separate themselves from the pack over the next few weeks as rosters are close to final following the passing of the trade deadline. We place the Dodgers in that top-tier category and the Bravos in some other category. There are reasons to like the Braves here (solid career results against Randy Wolf, Derek Lowe on a relatively solid roll, etc.) and that is why they are the favorite. However, we don't have any doubt that the Dodgers are the better team and we think Joe Torre has these guys ready to turn up the heat, especially after their pathetic display in St. Louis during the week. That is why we're backing LA in this one. As long as Randy Wolf can tip-toe around Chipper and McCann (a combined 8 for 15 against him in their careers) he should be able to keep the ATL in check. The Dodger bats will do the rest. Take LA (+106) to win and put themselves in position for a series sweep. Final score is 5-3. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Chicago - The Yankees have not looked like the same team the past two days in Chicago. They look to turn that around by giving the ball to their most dependable starter over the past several weeks. AJ Burnett is 6-1, 1.68 in his last 8 starts. He has historically pitched well against the Sox (2.78 ERA). The Sox counter with John Danks who has been solid this year. However, he is a lefty and the Yanks like to see those guys (21-12). Danks has also been lit up by the Bombers in the past, though those starts haven't occurred since 2007. We think this remains a very tight game throughout but NY finds a way to pull out the game and halt their two game skid in Chicago. Take the Yankees ( -145) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Kansas City @ Tampa Bay - BRUCE CHEN ALERT! BRUCE CHEN ALERT! BRUCE CHEN ALERT! God I love this series. TAMPA BITCHES. If only we could pick against the Bruce Chen/Sidney Ponson tag-team every day, our numbers would be remarkable. Alas, we only have that luxury two out of every five days. However, there is no telling how long either of these guys will remain in the Royal rotation so be sure to take advantage when you can. Jeff Niemann, who has already shut the Royals out once this year, should cruise for TB. The Rays will roll in this one, no doubt. Take TB minus 1.5 runs (-145) to win big, 9-2. LOCK IT UP
We'll be back this afternoon with the entire slate of night games.
Friday, July 31, 2009
A-Wheeling and A-Dealing: The Deadline Dance
We're barreling down on the trading deadline and the action seems to be pretty hot and heavy. The Red Sox are calling every team in baseball and asking about their best players (Adrian Gonzalez, Victor Martinez, Felix Hernandez, etc.) Jared Washburn and Orlando Cabrera have already switched uniforms today and they look to be getting some company by this afternoon. Just an all-around entertaining day. That helps take a bit of the sting out of last night's 1-5 disaster. It brought us to 4-7 on the day and killed any momentum we generated with Wednesday night's success. We now stand at 155-140 (53%) and a +$190 BAT.
In more positive news, 70s Style Bush answered the call last night with an impressive 19-11 drubbing of the DirtBags. The bats came alive, assisted by large volumes of Coors Light, and gave the pitching and defense all that was needed to cruise to victory. Two 3-run HRs from Matt Hussey and a once-in-a-lifetime relief appearance from Brien Dirito (1 inning, 7 earned runs) highlighted the win. The Bush faces an August 6 bye and returns to the field on August 13th at 2-2.
Now back to big-boy baseball. The Locks is focused more than ever on uncovering winners and padding pockets. That begins tonight.
Boston @ Baltimore - This one feels like a slugfest with Jeremy Guthrie and his 23 HRs allowed squaring off against the Great John Smoltz Experiment. Smoltz faced the O's in his last start and got all lit up. Based on this pitching matchup, the Locks is shocked that the O/U has been placed a measly 9 runs. We'll gladly take the over here (-120) and call it day. Not sure who wins (we're pulling for the O's) but we expect fireworks. We'll call it a 7-5 Baltimore victory. LOCK IT UP
Detroit @ Cleveland - This is just the second game we've looked at today and we've already found two Vegas lines that seem rather curious. Detroit is really only a -152 favorite in this game? We were expecting something north of -200. Edwin Jackson gets to face an Indian team that he's dominated this season (2-0, 0.64). On the other side, the Indians give Fausto Carmona another chance to prove he isn't total dog meat. This is the same guy that was option to the minors (not AAA but A) in June and is just now back with the big club. This one just doesn't seem that fair. Add in the fact that Victor Martinez may very well not still be an Indian when the first pitch is thrown and we're all over Motown. Take the Tigers minus 1.5 runs (EVEN) to cruise through this affair, 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ Pittsburgh - Yawn. We really want to take the Nats here behind John Lannan but they are a road favorite. That is enough to scare us off this game entirely. On second thought, it's time that the Nats got some love and the Locks ain't scared of any baseball game. Give me Washington (-122) to get that road W behind Lannan. Nationals prevail 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Arizona @ NYM - Some habits are just hard to shake. For some, its the bottle. Others, its women. Still others can't help games of chance. For the Locks, its picking against the Pets. That was a nice little run that they had this past week and the DBacks certainly don't present too great of a challenge but they are still the Pets. "And He Shall Be Livan" Hernandez takes the ball tonight and that makes me smile. Give me Doug Davis, Mark Reynolds and the rest of the desert snakes to roll in this game. Take Arizona (-112) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Florida - The Locks must admit to having a bit of a crush on the Marlins. This is another team that falls into the "scrappy playoff contender" that we so much love to get behind. However, we really like the Cubs with a healthy Aramis Ramirez in the lineup. Especially when the rejuvenated Rich Harden is pitching away from Wrigley. This one is too good for the Cubs for us to pass up on. The under might be another sneaky play here as both starters can be lights out when they're on. We'll simply take the SouthSiders (-130) to prevail behind Harden. Final score will be 5-2. LOCK IT UP
Colorado @ Cincinnati - Talk about two scuffling teams. At least you expect the woeful Reds to scuffle but the Rocks dropping 3 of 4 at Citi Field is just plain bad. Dependable Aaron Cook looks to get the Mile Highers back on track against a Red making his first ML start (Justin Lehr). We think the Colorado bats are up for the challenge and that this one gets a bit out of hand early on, especially if Cincy has to get into that bullpen. Take the Rocks minus 1.5 runs (-105) to roll up an 8-3 victory. LOCK IT UP
LA @ Atlanta - The Bravos have proven to be an itch in my underpants all season long. I support them and they soil themselves. I bash them and they erupt. I've got to get some sort of read on these guys. What I do know is that if their pitchers can keep games close, then Brian McCann and Chipper Jones can win them with their bats. I'm of the firm opinion that Tommy Hanson can keep the Braves in this game. Plus, Jason Schmidt hasn't shown that he is back in any sort of competent way just yet. Career numbers for McCann and Chipper are not great against Schmidt but I expect their damage to come against the pen. By the way, don't look now but the Dodgers are being exposed. They might not be as good as we all thought. Take Atlanta minus 1.5 runs (+115) to handle LA relatively easily, 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Kansas City @ Tampa Bay - SIDNEY PONSON ALERT! SIDNEY PONSON ALERT! I wish that everything in life was this easy. Like if I looked outside and saw a cloud resembling Sidney Ponson, I would know there is a 100% chance of rain. Can you believe that Sidney Ponson is still paid to pitch in Major League baseball games? I certainly cannot. This can't last much longer so make your money off of him now. Seriously. Don't wait. Bet everything you have tonight on this game, even with the ridiculous moneyline. We're taking TB minus 1.5 runs (-120) to throttle the Royals. This one will be ridiculous. Rays win 11-3. By the way, TAMPA BITCHES!!!! LOCK IT UP
Mariners @ Texas - SWINE FLU ALERT! SWINE FLU ALERT! Vicente Padilla finally returns from his battle with the pork pandemic and we're thinking the illness may have helped. It certainly couldn't have hurt this bag of rotting meat too much. In fact, after tonight's dazzling performance by Padilla, we think other borderline starting pitchers (we're looking at you Jeff Suppan and you too Brian Tallet) may purposefully contract the SF as a career boosting tactic. The M's have ridden their mediocre talent as far as they can this season. Even the scrappiness of this scrappy poster child is beginning to fade. Meanwhile, Texas continues to make noise and it is music to our ears. Take the Rangers minus 1.5 runs (+115) to handle Seattle 8-4. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Minnesota - Apparently Orlando Cabrera passes as a major addition to your team in Middle America. Good luck with that Twinkies. However, the Twins are at home and we know how Jekyll and Hyde these guys are depending on where they are playing. Same goes for starter Nick Blackburn (5-0, 2.67 in Metrodome). The moneyline here is a bit bigger than we'd expect (Twins -160) but we do like Minny. Ervin Santana continues to search for the stuff that made him a pretty darn good pitcher last year. He's not gonna find it in Minnesota. Plus if he is able to hand a lead over to the pen, Brian Fuentes will just blow it. Take the Twins minus 1.5 runs (+120) to win 6-4. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Chicago - Don't bet on the Yankees to lose back to back games. They make up for yesterday's poor offensive performance by battering the relatively inept Clayton Richard (1-2, 5.59 at home). All that Sergio Mitre needs to do is somewhat limit the Chicago offense and he'll be in line for win #2 this season. Look for a big bounce back W for the Bombers. Take NYY minus 1.5 runs (+125) to win 8-4. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ St. Louis - We're firmly back on the Cardinal train despite last night's loss to LA. The Cards have very strong memories of the sweep the Stros dropped on them in Houston recently. Look to the red birds to do everything they can to return the favor this weekend at Busch Stadium. That starts with a complete demolition of Brian Moehler this evening. Don't worry that St. Louis is trotting out Mitchell Boggs (sounds like one of the locals in Deliverance) for only his fifth start this year. Pitching won't matter in this blowout. Take St. Louie minus 1.5 runs (+115) to win big, 9-4. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ San Diego - I hate everything about this game. For starters, I totally overvalue the ability of the Brewers for no identifiable reason. They've been killing me all year and I'm not sure why I expect them to be good for me. Plus, San Diego is starting Chad Gaudin who I think very little of but who also continues to hit me in the wallet every time he starts. I suppose you can take the approach that things even out over time. I will do just that and expect the Brewers to finally reward me and Gaudin to finally pitch like the hump that he is. The pick is Milwaukee (-110) to win, 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Toronto @ Oakland - Newsflash: The Blue Jays stink. Not just a little stink either. A major, dead body in the sun kind of stink. Unbelievable that these guys were the toast of baseball in May. It's rare that the A's ever are a moneyline favorite but against the Canadians, I can totally understand it. Dallas Braden is not a bad little pitcher and the Jays are terrible on the road. I can't believe I am going to support the Athletic Supporters, but, you know what, it doesn't feel as bad as I expected. A's (-128) win 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Philadelphia @ San Francisco - Not a real good showing by Philly last night. They need to beat teams like the Giants to claim the title of NL's best team. They get to take their new vehicle out for a ride tonight and we think they'll like the way that it handles. Cliff Lee should make pretty economical work out of the SF lineup. At the complete opposite end of the spectrum, the Phils should murder Ryan Sadowski. That adds up to a bet on the Phils minus 1.5 runs (-120). Philadelphia wins 7-2. LOCK IT UP
That's 15 winners for you heading into your first August weekend. Enjoy!
In more positive news, 70s Style Bush answered the call last night with an impressive 19-11 drubbing of the DirtBags. The bats came alive, assisted by large volumes of Coors Light, and gave the pitching and defense all that was needed to cruise to victory. Two 3-run HRs from Matt Hussey and a once-in-a-lifetime relief appearance from Brien Dirito (1 inning, 7 earned runs) highlighted the win. The Bush faces an August 6 bye and returns to the field on August 13th at 2-2.
Now back to big-boy baseball. The Locks is focused more than ever on uncovering winners and padding pockets. That begins tonight.
Boston @ Baltimore - This one feels like a slugfest with Jeremy Guthrie and his 23 HRs allowed squaring off against the Great John Smoltz Experiment. Smoltz faced the O's in his last start and got all lit up. Based on this pitching matchup, the Locks is shocked that the O/U has been placed a measly 9 runs. We'll gladly take the over here (-120) and call it day. Not sure who wins (we're pulling for the O's) but we expect fireworks. We'll call it a 7-5 Baltimore victory. LOCK IT UP
Detroit @ Cleveland - This is just the second game we've looked at today and we've already found two Vegas lines that seem rather curious. Detroit is really only a -152 favorite in this game? We were expecting something north of -200. Edwin Jackson gets to face an Indian team that he's dominated this season (2-0, 0.64). On the other side, the Indians give Fausto Carmona another chance to prove he isn't total dog meat. This is the same guy that was option to the minors (not AAA but A) in June and is just now back with the big club. This one just doesn't seem that fair. Add in the fact that Victor Martinez may very well not still be an Indian when the first pitch is thrown and we're all over Motown. Take the Tigers minus 1.5 runs (EVEN) to cruise through this affair, 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ Pittsburgh - Yawn. We really want to take the Nats here behind John Lannan but they are a road favorite. That is enough to scare us off this game entirely. On second thought, it's time that the Nats got some love and the Locks ain't scared of any baseball game. Give me Washington (-122) to get that road W behind Lannan. Nationals prevail 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Arizona @ NYM - Some habits are just hard to shake. For some, its the bottle. Others, its women. Still others can't help games of chance. For the Locks, its picking against the Pets. That was a nice little run that they had this past week and the DBacks certainly don't present too great of a challenge but they are still the Pets. "And He Shall Be Livan" Hernandez takes the ball tonight and that makes me smile. Give me Doug Davis, Mark Reynolds and the rest of the desert snakes to roll in this game. Take Arizona (-112) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Florida - The Locks must admit to having a bit of a crush on the Marlins. This is another team that falls into the "scrappy playoff contender" that we so much love to get behind. However, we really like the Cubs with a healthy Aramis Ramirez in the lineup. Especially when the rejuvenated Rich Harden is pitching away from Wrigley. This one is too good for the Cubs for us to pass up on. The under might be another sneaky play here as both starters can be lights out when they're on. We'll simply take the SouthSiders (-130) to prevail behind Harden. Final score will be 5-2. LOCK IT UP
Colorado @ Cincinnati - Talk about two scuffling teams. At least you expect the woeful Reds to scuffle but the Rocks dropping 3 of 4 at Citi Field is just plain bad. Dependable Aaron Cook looks to get the Mile Highers back on track against a Red making his first ML start (Justin Lehr). We think the Colorado bats are up for the challenge and that this one gets a bit out of hand early on, especially if Cincy has to get into that bullpen. Take the Rocks minus 1.5 runs (-105) to roll up an 8-3 victory. LOCK IT UP
LA @ Atlanta - The Bravos have proven to be an itch in my underpants all season long. I support them and they soil themselves. I bash them and they erupt. I've got to get some sort of read on these guys. What I do know is that if their pitchers can keep games close, then Brian McCann and Chipper Jones can win them with their bats. I'm of the firm opinion that Tommy Hanson can keep the Braves in this game. Plus, Jason Schmidt hasn't shown that he is back in any sort of competent way just yet. Career numbers for McCann and Chipper are not great against Schmidt but I expect their damage to come against the pen. By the way, don't look now but the Dodgers are being exposed. They might not be as good as we all thought. Take Atlanta minus 1.5 runs (+115) to handle LA relatively easily, 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Kansas City @ Tampa Bay - SIDNEY PONSON ALERT! SIDNEY PONSON ALERT! I wish that everything in life was this easy. Like if I looked outside and saw a cloud resembling Sidney Ponson, I would know there is a 100% chance of rain. Can you believe that Sidney Ponson is still paid to pitch in Major League baseball games? I certainly cannot. This can't last much longer so make your money off of him now. Seriously. Don't wait. Bet everything you have tonight on this game, even with the ridiculous moneyline. We're taking TB minus 1.5 runs (-120) to throttle the Royals. This one will be ridiculous. Rays win 11-3. By the way, TAMPA BITCHES!!!! LOCK IT UP
Mariners @ Texas - SWINE FLU ALERT! SWINE FLU ALERT! Vicente Padilla finally returns from his battle with the pork pandemic and we're thinking the illness may have helped. It certainly couldn't have hurt this bag of rotting meat too much. In fact, after tonight's dazzling performance by Padilla, we think other borderline starting pitchers (we're looking at you Jeff Suppan and you too Brian Tallet) may purposefully contract the SF as a career boosting tactic. The M's have ridden their mediocre talent as far as they can this season. Even the scrappiness of this scrappy poster child is beginning to fade. Meanwhile, Texas continues to make noise and it is music to our ears. Take the Rangers minus 1.5 runs (+115) to handle Seattle 8-4. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Minnesota - Apparently Orlando Cabrera passes as a major addition to your team in Middle America. Good luck with that Twinkies. However, the Twins are at home and we know how Jekyll and Hyde these guys are depending on where they are playing. Same goes for starter Nick Blackburn (5-0, 2.67 in Metrodome). The moneyline here is a bit bigger than we'd expect (Twins -160) but we do like Minny. Ervin Santana continues to search for the stuff that made him a pretty darn good pitcher last year. He's not gonna find it in Minnesota. Plus if he is able to hand a lead over to the pen, Brian Fuentes will just blow it. Take the Twins minus 1.5 runs (+120) to win 6-4. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Chicago - Don't bet on the Yankees to lose back to back games. They make up for yesterday's poor offensive performance by battering the relatively inept Clayton Richard (1-2, 5.59 at home). All that Sergio Mitre needs to do is somewhat limit the Chicago offense and he'll be in line for win #2 this season. Look for a big bounce back W for the Bombers. Take NYY minus 1.5 runs (+125) to win 8-4. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ St. Louis - We're firmly back on the Cardinal train despite last night's loss to LA. The Cards have very strong memories of the sweep the Stros dropped on them in Houston recently. Look to the red birds to do everything they can to return the favor this weekend at Busch Stadium. That starts with a complete demolition of Brian Moehler this evening. Don't worry that St. Louis is trotting out Mitchell Boggs (sounds like one of the locals in Deliverance) for only his fifth start this year. Pitching won't matter in this blowout. Take St. Louie minus 1.5 runs (+115) to win big, 9-4. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ San Diego - I hate everything about this game. For starters, I totally overvalue the ability of the Brewers for no identifiable reason. They've been killing me all year and I'm not sure why I expect them to be good for me. Plus, San Diego is starting Chad Gaudin who I think very little of but who also continues to hit me in the wallet every time he starts. I suppose you can take the approach that things even out over time. I will do just that and expect the Brewers to finally reward me and Gaudin to finally pitch like the hump that he is. The pick is Milwaukee (-110) to win, 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Toronto @ Oakland - Newsflash: The Blue Jays stink. Not just a little stink either. A major, dead body in the sun kind of stink. Unbelievable that these guys were the toast of baseball in May. It's rare that the A's ever are a moneyline favorite but against the Canadians, I can totally understand it. Dallas Braden is not a bad little pitcher and the Jays are terrible on the road. I can't believe I am going to support the Athletic Supporters, but, you know what, it doesn't feel as bad as I expected. A's (-128) win 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Philadelphia @ San Francisco - Not a real good showing by Philly last night. They need to beat teams like the Giants to claim the title of NL's best team. They get to take their new vehicle out for a ride tonight and we think they'll like the way that it handles. Cliff Lee should make pretty economical work out of the SF lineup. At the complete opposite end of the spectrum, the Phils should murder Ryan Sadowski. That adds up to a bet on the Phils minus 1.5 runs (-120). Philadelphia wins 7-2. LOCK IT UP
That's 15 winners for you heading into your first August weekend. Enjoy!
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Thursday Night Action - MLB and D-League Softball
Between last night's solid effort and a decent showing today, we've recovered from nearly all the damage we absorbed on that horrible, horrible Tuesday. Last night we went 8-5 with a +$41 BAT. We followed that up today with a 3-2 record in the day games and added another $10 to the BAT. Going into this evening, we proudly stand at 154-135 (53%) overall with a BAT of +$233.
While the Locks has no intention of turning this space into a soapbox or any other venue for passing judgment, we did want to make one observation. We're curious how all those Red Sox fans that took such delight in Alex Rodriguez being busted for using steroids feel today knowing that the 3-4 hitters on their two championship teams allegedly are ARod's brothers in arms. It sure is interesting how things unfold.
On to the picks for the Thursday night games:
Seattle @ Texas - Rangers at home is a very enticing gamble. We do love their offense. Then again, they have the totally hittable Derek Holland on the mound. At the same time, this "scrappy" M's team is clearly not waving the white flag on the season. They are going to fight to the end. The problem is, they don't know who is even going to start this game for them (looks like Garrett Olson). Both of these starters have ERAs north of 5.35 and we're hitting late July when the humidity helps the ball start to fly all over the Ballpark in Arlington. We're a bit reluctant to take the Rangers with the moneyline so high (-172). However, we will back the over (10.5) in this game where these teams might score 20 combined. Take the over (-115). Rangers win 9-7. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ Florida - Rik VandenHurk has certainly impressed the Locks with his two excellent starts so far this season. He may just prove to be a vital cog in a Fish run to the playoffs. That could start tonight with another battle against the Braves. Javy Vazquez gets the nod for the Bravos but hasn't been his usual excellent self against the Marlins this year. We think the Fish are really starting to gain confidence and believe they are a playoff team. This one will be close but we like the Marlins and VandenHurk at home (+136). Florida wins 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Colorado @ NYM - Game 2 - Locks Rule #73 - It is really, really tough to sweep a doubleheader. Locks Rule #97 - Rule #73 is especially true if you play your home games in Flushing, Queens. We just can't back the Pets and Jon Niese here. Jorge De La Rosa has been dealing lately and he'll end this recent Pet shenanigans. Take the Rockies (-145) to end their funk. They win 5-3. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Chicago - Andy Pettite has made me incredibly uneasy for much of this season, though he's been better of late. I'm always nervous when he faces a lineup of veteran, professional hitters and the ChiSox have some of the best in the game. However, the Yanks are the best team in baseball and you better have a really good reason to pick against them at this point. I don't have one so I'll take the Bombers minus 1.5 runs (+130) to prevail 7-4 on the road. LOCK IT UP
LA @ St. Louis - Are the Dodgers really going to get swept in St. Louie. Wow, that would be quite a statement by the Holliday-enhanced Cardinals. I don't buy either of these starting pitchers but I need to get back on my Fat Albert and Professor LaRussa train. They've been killing me when I haven't been supportive. That ends tonight. I think the Cards finish off the Dodgers and establish themselves as a real World Series contender. Take St. Louis (-108) to win 7-6. LOCK IT UP
Philadelphia @ SF - This is really going to be an interesting series. The no-offense Giants at home vs. the all-offense Phils. It would be nice to have a better matchup than Rodrigo Lopez vs. Jonathan Sanchez in the opener but what can you do. The Phils need to keep pace with the Cards and I just think they'll expose the Giants here. Take Philly (-115) to win this one 6-4. LOCK IT UP
THURSDAY NIGHT BONUS:
70s Style Bush @ The Dirtbags - Defending champs, 70s Style Bush, stand at the crossroads of their summer season following some uninspired play during the opening weeks. At 1-2, the Bush faces a key challenge tonight vs. the 1-1-1 bags of dirt. 70s Style welcomes back outfielder James Charlesworth following a two-week stint on the "My Priority is Not D-League Softball" List. His big bat in the middle of the lineup should be just what the Bush needs following last week's dismal offensive performance. Outfielder Matt Scerri also returns after being AWOL for two weeks himself. The absence of his lefty stick has been felt as well. Pitching is one area the Bush has not lacked during their early season swoon as Kevin Pollock continues to be an anchor in a rocky sea. According to reports, the Bush plans some big pre- and post-game beer-related antics this evening in order to get their MoJo back. The Locks thinks it will work. Look to the Bush to come out blazing this evening behind big hits from Burt "The Dump Truck" Ritz, Sean Grech and John Gilginas. 70s Style (-105) gets back on track tonight with an 11-5 victory. LOCK IT UP
While the Locks has no intention of turning this space into a soapbox or any other venue for passing judgment, we did want to make one observation. We're curious how all those Red Sox fans that took such delight in Alex Rodriguez being busted for using steroids feel today knowing that the 3-4 hitters on their two championship teams allegedly are ARod's brothers in arms. It sure is interesting how things unfold.
On to the picks for the Thursday night games:
Seattle @ Texas - Rangers at home is a very enticing gamble. We do love their offense. Then again, they have the totally hittable Derek Holland on the mound. At the same time, this "scrappy" M's team is clearly not waving the white flag on the season. They are going to fight to the end. The problem is, they don't know who is even going to start this game for them (looks like Garrett Olson). Both of these starters have ERAs north of 5.35 and we're hitting late July when the humidity helps the ball start to fly all over the Ballpark in Arlington. We're a bit reluctant to take the Rangers with the moneyline so high (-172). However, we will back the over (10.5) in this game where these teams might score 20 combined. Take the over (-115). Rangers win 9-7. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ Florida - Rik VandenHurk has certainly impressed the Locks with his two excellent starts so far this season. He may just prove to be a vital cog in a Fish run to the playoffs. That could start tonight with another battle against the Braves. Javy Vazquez gets the nod for the Bravos but hasn't been his usual excellent self against the Marlins this year. We think the Fish are really starting to gain confidence and believe they are a playoff team. This one will be close but we like the Marlins and VandenHurk at home (+136). Florida wins 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Colorado @ NYM - Game 2 - Locks Rule #73 - It is really, really tough to sweep a doubleheader. Locks Rule #97 - Rule #73 is especially true if you play your home games in Flushing, Queens. We just can't back the Pets and Jon Niese here. Jorge De La Rosa has been dealing lately and he'll end this recent Pet shenanigans. Take the Rockies (-145) to end their funk. They win 5-3. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Chicago - Andy Pettite has made me incredibly uneasy for much of this season, though he's been better of late. I'm always nervous when he faces a lineup of veteran, professional hitters and the ChiSox have some of the best in the game. However, the Yanks are the best team in baseball and you better have a really good reason to pick against them at this point. I don't have one so I'll take the Bombers minus 1.5 runs (+130) to prevail 7-4 on the road. LOCK IT UP
LA @ St. Louis - Are the Dodgers really going to get swept in St. Louie. Wow, that would be quite a statement by the Holliday-enhanced Cardinals. I don't buy either of these starting pitchers but I need to get back on my Fat Albert and Professor LaRussa train. They've been killing me when I haven't been supportive. That ends tonight. I think the Cards finish off the Dodgers and establish themselves as a real World Series contender. Take St. Louis (-108) to win 7-6. LOCK IT UP
Philadelphia @ SF - This is really going to be an interesting series. The no-offense Giants at home vs. the all-offense Phils. It would be nice to have a better matchup than Rodrigo Lopez vs. Jonathan Sanchez in the opener but what can you do. The Phils need to keep pace with the Cards and I just think they'll expose the Giants here. Take Philly (-115) to win this one 6-4. LOCK IT UP
THURSDAY NIGHT BONUS:
70s Style Bush @ The Dirtbags - Defending champs, 70s Style Bush, stand at the crossroads of their summer season following some uninspired play during the opening weeks. At 1-2, the Bush faces a key challenge tonight vs. the 1-1-1 bags of dirt. 70s Style welcomes back outfielder James Charlesworth following a two-week stint on the "My Priority is Not D-League Softball" List. His big bat in the middle of the lineup should be just what the Bush needs following last week's dismal offensive performance. Outfielder Matt Scerri also returns after being AWOL for two weeks himself. The absence of his lefty stick has been felt as well. Pitching is one area the Bush has not lacked during their early season swoon as Kevin Pollock continues to be an anchor in a rocky sea. According to reports, the Bush plans some big pre- and post-game beer-related antics this evening in order to get their MoJo back. The Locks thinks it will work. Look to the Bush to come out blazing this evening behind big hits from Burt "The Dump Truck" Ritz, Sean Grech and John Gilginas. 70s Style (-105) gets back on track tonight with an 11-5 victory. LOCK IT UP
Early Action - Thursday Style
Quick look at a handful of games about to start:
Colorado @ NYM - Game 1 - Last night's rain out allowed me to rethink this game. I don't care how many games the Pets have won in a row, that lineup has nobody in it. Murphy batting cleanup? Really? I'm taking the Rockies to beat Johan this afternoon. Colorado (+130) wins 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Kansas City @ Baltimore - Sticking with my young O's bats (Jones, Markakis and crew) to keep on rolling up on the Royals. Bergesen is proving to be quite a young talent himself. Look to the Orioles to win this one pretty easily. Take Baltimore minus 1.5 runs (+125) to win 7-3. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Cincinnati - Can't figure this one out at all. No pick. These teams stink.
Oakland @ Boston - The A's luck in Boston has run out. They should be happy with two victories. John Lester is just about the only thing the Sox have going now that they can absolutely count on. Look to the BoSox to relieve some pent up frustration in this one. Actually, scratch all that. I just looked at the line in this game. The Sox are a -400 favorite. This after losing the past two games? Not sure how that is possible. Even at minus 1.5 runs you're still looking at a -170 moneyline. I'm going to have to take the A's and the promise of a solid payday. We'll pass up on the +300 win line and instead take Oakland plus 1.5 runs at (+150). That is just too good to pass up. Now watch the Sox blow them out. Oh well. Sox win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ Milwaukee - The Brew Crew finally broke through with a much needed win last night. Now they get to turn to their "ace," Yovani Gallardo. This is another insane moneyline but we just love Braun and the Brewer Boys too much. Take Milwaukee minus 1.5 runs (-145) to dominate this game. Brewers will win 9-4. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ Chicago - Cubbies roll up on Russ Ortiz. It's that simple. Take Chicago minus 1.5 runs (-105). They get up big early (just like yesterday) and then coast to victory, 8-4. LOCK IT UP
Back later this afternoon with the evening games.
Colorado @ NYM - Game 1 - Last night's rain out allowed me to rethink this game. I don't care how many games the Pets have won in a row, that lineup has nobody in it. Murphy batting cleanup? Really? I'm taking the Rockies to beat Johan this afternoon. Colorado (+130) wins 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Kansas City @ Baltimore - Sticking with my young O's bats (Jones, Markakis and crew) to keep on rolling up on the Royals. Bergesen is proving to be quite a young talent himself. Look to the Orioles to win this one pretty easily. Take Baltimore minus 1.5 runs (+125) to win 7-3. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Cincinnati - Can't figure this one out at all. No pick. These teams stink.
Oakland @ Boston - The A's luck in Boston has run out. They should be happy with two victories. John Lester is just about the only thing the Sox have going now that they can absolutely count on. Look to the BoSox to relieve some pent up frustration in this one. Actually, scratch all that. I just looked at the line in this game. The Sox are a -400 favorite. This after losing the past two games? Not sure how that is possible. Even at minus 1.5 runs you're still looking at a -170 moneyline. I'm going to have to take the A's and the promise of a solid payday. We'll pass up on the +300 win line and instead take Oakland plus 1.5 runs at (+150). That is just too good to pass up. Now watch the Sox blow them out. Oh well. Sox win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ Milwaukee - The Brew Crew finally broke through with a much needed win last night. Now they get to turn to their "ace," Yovani Gallardo. This is another insane moneyline but we just love Braun and the Brewer Boys too much. Take Milwaukee minus 1.5 runs (-145) to dominate this game. Brewers will win 9-4. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ Chicago - Cubbies roll up on Russ Ortiz. It's that simple. Take Chicago minus 1.5 runs (-105). They get up big early (just like yesterday) and then coast to victory, 8-4. LOCK IT UP
Back later this afternoon with the evening games.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Sifting Through the Carnage
Well that's the last time the Locks takes a day off when riding a hot streak. Tuesday proved to be hazardous to our financial health as we posted a 4-10 record capped off by Angels' closer Brian Fuentes blowing a 3-run lead in the 9th. Oh well, Mama always said there would be days like this. Our terrible Tuesday ate $55 into our BAT, leaving us at $182 overall. The overall record checks in this morning at 143-128 (53%).
We have to blow through the picks today on account of the old day job. Here's who we like:
Cubbies minus 1.5 runs (EVEN)
Angels minus 1.5 runs (+110)
Giants minus 1.5 runs (+145)
Blue Jays minus 1.5 runs (-110)
Orioles (+120)
Yanks (-110)
Marlins minus 1.5 runs (+135)
Mets (-141)
Athletics (+157)
Tigers (-113)
Brewers minus 1.5 runs (-105)
White Sox (+122)
Dodgers (-108)
Phils minus 1.5 runs (-110)
We have to blow through the picks today on account of the old day job. Here's who we like:
Cubbies minus 1.5 runs (EVEN)
Angels minus 1.5 runs (+110)
Giants minus 1.5 runs (+145)
Blue Jays minus 1.5 runs (-110)
Orioles (+120)
Yanks (-110)
Marlins minus 1.5 runs (+135)
Mets (-141)
Athletics (+157)
Tigers (-113)
Brewers minus 1.5 runs (-105)
White Sox (+122)
Dodgers (-108)
Phils minus 1.5 runs (-110)
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
NFL Over/Under Challenge
We've received and compiled all eligible entries for the 2009 NFL O/U Challenge. Below you'll find each of the entries. The NY Jets were the most popular team, being listed on four of the six entries. Interestingly, they split those four mentions evenly between the Overs (shockingly both Yannuzzis) and the Unders (the more level-headed KP and Mark Borton). It will be fun to see which camp is correct.
You'll see that we've also added these entries to the right-hand sidebar so that they can be easily found during the course of the season. This should be a fun competition to track throughout the NFL season. Thanks to everyone for participating:
Kevin Pollock
Over - Atlanta (8), Seattle (7.5) and Oakland (5.5)
Under - NYG (10.5), NYJ (8) and Kansas City (5.5)
John Yannuzzi
Over - Oakland (5.5), NYJ (8) and Detroit (5)
Under - San Diego (10.5), Minnesota (8.5) and New Orleans (8.5)
Tim Crvarich
Over - Philadelphia (9), Baltimore (8.5) and Cincinnati (5.5)
Under - Tennessee (8.5), Carolina (8.5) and Jacksonville (8)
Adam Yannuzzi
Over - NYJ (8), Denver (7.5) and Tennessee (8.5)
Under - Houston (9), San Francisco (7) and Detroit (5)
Mark Borton
Over - Philadelphia (9), Kansas City (5.5) and San Francisco (7)
Under - New England (12), Arizona (9) and NYJ (8)
Absolute Locks' House Picks
Over - Philadelphia (9), Chicago (8) and Seattle (7.5)
Under - Denver (7.5), Tampa Bay (6.5) and Detroit (5)
You'll see that we've also added these entries to the right-hand sidebar so that they can be easily found during the course of the season. This should be a fun competition to track throughout the NFL season. Thanks to everyone for participating:
Kevin Pollock
Over - Atlanta (8), Seattle (7.5) and Oakland (5.5)
Under - NYG (10.5), NYJ (8) and Kansas City (5.5)
John Yannuzzi
Over - Oakland (5.5), NYJ (8) and Detroit (5)
Under - San Diego (10.5), Minnesota (8.5) and New Orleans (8.5)
Tim Crvarich
Over - Philadelphia (9), Baltimore (8.5) and Cincinnati (5.5)
Under - Tennessee (8.5), Carolina (8.5) and Jacksonville (8)
Adam Yannuzzi
Over - NYJ (8), Denver (7.5) and Tennessee (8.5)
Under - Houston (9), San Francisco (7) and Detroit (5)
Mark Borton
Over - Philadelphia (9), Kansas City (5.5) and San Francisco (7)
Under - New England (12), Arizona (9) and NYJ (8)
Absolute Locks' House Picks
Over - Philadelphia (9), Chicago (8) and Seattle (7.5)
Under - Denver (7.5), Tampa Bay (6.5) and Detroit (5)
Back in Action
Following a rejuvenating Monday, the Lock's returns to continue to help you generate supplemental income. To recap, we kick off today with the following vitals: 139-118 (54%) and a BAT of +$237.
On to the games (we'll be back this afternoon with the entries for the NFL o/u Challenge):
Kansas City @ Baltimore - This cat Brian Bannister can pitch. Jason Berken does not appear to share that ability. I love the O's bats but can't support them here. Take KC (+105) to score a hard to come by road win. Royals romp 6-3. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Tampa Bay - This is an interesting game. Scott Kazmir looks ready to get pulled from the TB rotation. However, his career numbers against key Yankees are frighteningly good (Damon - .182, Cano - .150., Jeter - .129, ARod - .095, Matsui - .174). If there was ever a game for Kazmir to get it back on track, here's the one. Then there is the fact that some of the Rays hit CC pretty darn well. All that said, the Yankees are playing some pretty impressive baseball right now. So much so, that I can't get away from them. Take NY (-140) to win. Yankees prevail 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ Florida - We really like Ricky Nolasco. However, Jair Jurrjens is pitching like an animal right now. Chipper and the boys will do enough offensively to get JJ win number 10. We like the Bravos here at -116. Final score is 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Colorado @ NYM - No chance the Rockies lose two in a row to the Pets. Just can't happen. I'm always leery of Jason Marquis and now he's coming back from a blister problem. Not necessarily giving me a ton of confidence. Then I see the Pets in the other dugout and it is all OK. Take the Rocks (-133) to win. Final score is 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Oakland @ Boston - I got my first real look at Vin Mazzaro during his last start vs. the Yankees. I must say, I was pretty impressed. This kid has a live arm and can pretty much spot his fastball wherever he wants. He's definitely one of the more impressive young A's starters. No way the Sox should be a -250 favorite with Clay Buchholz on the mound. That is a joke. I'll take Oakland plus 1.5 runs (EVEN). Boston wins 4-3. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Cincinnati - Yikes. The Padres stink. I can't believe that Adrian Gonzalez ever sees a strike. Don't expect Bronson Arroyo to let him beat him tonight. The Reds are no playoff team but they can beat the Padres at home. Take Cincy minus 1.5 runs (+145) to win 6-2. LOCK IT UP
Detroit @ Texas - This is a good series for two teams looking to improve their playoff picture. Mr. Swine Flu (Vicente Padilla) is back for the Rangers and throws against Tiger hitters that he's done reasonably well against in the past. I expect Detroit's Lucas French to get lit up one of these days. Might as well be today. Take the Rangers minus 1.5 runs (+145) to win 7-4. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ Chicago - The Astros have fallen apart just as I started to give them props. At the same time, the Cubs are turning a corner. Dempster at home is much better than Dempster on the road. Oswalt looks to be a tough luck loser in this one. Take the Cubbies to win (-110). Final score is 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ Milwaukee - I can just envision the Brew Crew doing unbelievable things to Collin Balestar tonight in Milwaukee. It's not like Carlos Villanueva is Cy Young, but he'll be the lucky recipient of plenty of run support. Take the Brewers minus 1.5 runs (EVEN). This will be a high-scoring affair, 9-6. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Minnesota - The Twins must be thrilled to finally be back home. Their reward is facing Mark Buehrle following his perfect game. And the Twinkies don't beat lefties as often as they lose to them. I think Buehrle is up to the task in following up the perfect game with a solid start (something that doesn't always happen). I'll take the ChiSox (+108) to win this one in the Dome. Final score 6-4. LOCK IT UP
LA @ St. Louis - Cardinals look like a different team with Holliday in the lineup and we think Adam Wainright is pretty darn good. However, the Dodgers aren't losing three games in a row, not a chance. Billingsley throws a gem here and LA (-102) prevails 5-2. LOCK IT UP
Philadelphia @ Arizona - Dan Harren is an elite starting pitcher. Completely dominant. But not even a young Doc Gooden should make the DBacks an even matchup money-wise against the Phils. Cole Hamels will start to get back on track tonight and Utley takes Harren deep. Philly (-110) wins 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ LAA - Plaudits to the Indians for what they did in Seattle over the weekend. That was impressive against a team that the Locks has called scrappy more than enough times. However, things get back to normal tonight in the land of Disney. Take LAA minus 1.5 runs (-110) to roll to an 8-3 victory. LOCK IT UP
Toronto @ Seattle - Here's that scrappy team again. The wheels appear to be falling off. Not even King Felix could get it done last night. I think Toronto is abysmal as well but I think the M's might be in the midst of an 8 or 9 game skid. Take Mr. Consonant (Marc Rzepczynski) to lead the Jays (EVEN) to the win. Final score is 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Pittsburgh @ SF - We don't like this game at all. No pick being made.
On to the games (we'll be back this afternoon with the entries for the NFL o/u Challenge):
Kansas City @ Baltimore - This cat Brian Bannister can pitch. Jason Berken does not appear to share that ability. I love the O's bats but can't support them here. Take KC (+105) to score a hard to come by road win. Royals romp 6-3. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Tampa Bay - This is an interesting game. Scott Kazmir looks ready to get pulled from the TB rotation. However, his career numbers against key Yankees are frighteningly good (Damon - .182, Cano - .150., Jeter - .129, ARod - .095, Matsui - .174). If there was ever a game for Kazmir to get it back on track, here's the one. Then there is the fact that some of the Rays hit CC pretty darn well. All that said, the Yankees are playing some pretty impressive baseball right now. So much so, that I can't get away from them. Take NY (-140) to win. Yankees prevail 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ Florida - We really like Ricky Nolasco. However, Jair Jurrjens is pitching like an animal right now. Chipper and the boys will do enough offensively to get JJ win number 10. We like the Bravos here at -116. Final score is 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Colorado @ NYM - No chance the Rockies lose two in a row to the Pets. Just can't happen. I'm always leery of Jason Marquis and now he's coming back from a blister problem. Not necessarily giving me a ton of confidence. Then I see the Pets in the other dugout and it is all OK. Take the Rocks (-133) to win. Final score is 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Oakland @ Boston - I got my first real look at Vin Mazzaro during his last start vs. the Yankees. I must say, I was pretty impressed. This kid has a live arm and can pretty much spot his fastball wherever he wants. He's definitely one of the more impressive young A's starters. No way the Sox should be a -250 favorite with Clay Buchholz on the mound. That is a joke. I'll take Oakland plus 1.5 runs (EVEN). Boston wins 4-3. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Cincinnati - Yikes. The Padres stink. I can't believe that Adrian Gonzalez ever sees a strike. Don't expect Bronson Arroyo to let him beat him tonight. The Reds are no playoff team but they can beat the Padres at home. Take Cincy minus 1.5 runs (+145) to win 6-2. LOCK IT UP
Detroit @ Texas - This is a good series for two teams looking to improve their playoff picture. Mr. Swine Flu (Vicente Padilla) is back for the Rangers and throws against Tiger hitters that he's done reasonably well against in the past. I expect Detroit's Lucas French to get lit up one of these days. Might as well be today. Take the Rangers minus 1.5 runs (+145) to win 7-4. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ Chicago - The Astros have fallen apart just as I started to give them props. At the same time, the Cubs are turning a corner. Dempster at home is much better than Dempster on the road. Oswalt looks to be a tough luck loser in this one. Take the Cubbies to win (-110). Final score is 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ Milwaukee - I can just envision the Brew Crew doing unbelievable things to Collin Balestar tonight in Milwaukee. It's not like Carlos Villanueva is Cy Young, but he'll be the lucky recipient of plenty of run support. Take the Brewers minus 1.5 runs (EVEN). This will be a high-scoring affair, 9-6. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Minnesota - The Twins must be thrilled to finally be back home. Their reward is facing Mark Buehrle following his perfect game. And the Twinkies don't beat lefties as often as they lose to them. I think Buehrle is up to the task in following up the perfect game with a solid start (something that doesn't always happen). I'll take the ChiSox (+108) to win this one in the Dome. Final score 6-4. LOCK IT UP
LA @ St. Louis - Cardinals look like a different team with Holliday in the lineup and we think Adam Wainright is pretty darn good. However, the Dodgers aren't losing three games in a row, not a chance. Billingsley throws a gem here and LA (-102) prevails 5-2. LOCK IT UP
Philadelphia @ Arizona - Dan Harren is an elite starting pitcher. Completely dominant. But not even a young Doc Gooden should make the DBacks an even matchup money-wise against the Phils. Cole Hamels will start to get back on track tonight and Utley takes Harren deep. Philly (-110) wins 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ LAA - Plaudits to the Indians for what they did in Seattle over the weekend. That was impressive against a team that the Locks has called scrappy more than enough times. However, things get back to normal tonight in the land of Disney. Take LAA minus 1.5 runs (-110) to roll to an 8-3 victory. LOCK IT UP
Toronto @ Seattle - Here's that scrappy team again. The wheels appear to be falling off. Not even King Felix could get it done last night. I think Toronto is abysmal as well but I think the M's might be in the midst of an 8 or 9 game skid. Take Mr. Consonant (Marc Rzepczynski) to lead the Jays (EVEN) to the win. Final score is 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Pittsburgh @ SF - We don't like this game at all. No pick being made.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Weekend Recap and Holiday Notice
Well, the Locks have had quite a weekend. Following the 9-5 Friday that we posted, we threw up a 7-6 Saturday and a 9-5 Sunday. We netted $19 for the BAT on Saturday and added another $43 today. That brings the Locks cumulative numbers since kicking off this little experiment on June 30 to 139-118 (54%) and a BAT of +$237. If you were a real high roller and laying $100 for each game we've handicapped, you'd have netted a cool $2,370.00 in just under four weeks. Not too bad.
With the wild success that we've had this weekend, we think we've earned a day off. Actually, we're partaking in a charity golf event on Monday with a few of the Locks' loyal followers. As such, we'll be dedicating our time to more important endeavors than simple sports handicapping. We'll be back in action first thing Tuesday morning. In the meantime, if you're feeling charitable, check out Shelter Inc. It is a truly worthwhile organization that is appreciative of any help (monetary, volunteering or otherwise) that anyone might be so inclined to offer.
See you Tuesday, when we'll also be posting all entries from the NFL U/O Challenge.
With the wild success that we've had this weekend, we think we've earned a day off. Actually, we're partaking in a charity golf event on Monday with a few of the Locks' loyal followers. As such, we'll be dedicating our time to more important endeavors than simple sports handicapping. We'll be back in action first thing Tuesday morning. In the meantime, if you're feeling charitable, check out Shelter Inc. It is a truly worthwhile organization that is appreciative of any help (monetary, volunteering or otherwise) that anyone might be so inclined to offer.
See you Tuesday, when we'll also be posting all entries from the NFL U/O Challenge.
Sunday Lightning Round
No analysis, just winners:
NYY minus 1,5 runs (+110)
Rays minus 1.5 runs (+165)
Orioles plus 1.5 runs (-130)
Nats minus 1.5 runs (+145)
Phillies minus 1.5 runs (+120)
Braves (-115)
Astros minus 1.5 runs (+130)
Rangers minus 1.5 runs (+105) - Sidney Ponson alert
Cubs minus 1.5 runs (-110)
Rockies minus 1.5 runs (-110)
Twins (+125)
Mariners plus 1.5 runs (-140)
Marlins (+112)
Tigers minus 1.5 runs (+150)
NYY minus 1,5 runs (+110)
Rays minus 1.5 runs (+165)
Orioles plus 1.5 runs (-130)
Nats minus 1.5 runs (+145)
Phillies minus 1.5 runs (+120)
Braves (-115)
Astros minus 1.5 runs (+130)
Rangers minus 1.5 runs (+105) - Sidney Ponson alert
Cubs minus 1.5 runs (-110)
Rockies minus 1.5 runs (-110)
Twins (+125)
Mariners plus 1.5 runs (-140)
Marlins (+112)
Tigers minus 1.5 runs (+150)
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Directions to the ATM Machine
Here are some simple directions for making a bit of scratch this Saturday afternoon:
Chicago @ Detroit - This has proven to be a great series so far and we expect that to continue through the weekend. The Tigers are the slightly better team in this match up and their hitters have really hit Gavin Floyd very well throughout his career (the sample size is pretty significant). As such, I'd expect Detroit to throw up some runs today. That is good news for Edwin Jackson who continues to mow down AL hitters in a truly breakthrough season. He should pitch well enough to earn the win here but beware of Jim Thome who absolutely kills Jackson (batting .700 vs. Edwin in his career). I'll take the Tigers to win another entertaining game. Give Chicago the 1.5 runs to move the moneyline to +145. Detroit takes this one 6-2. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Philadelphia - That was a hell of a debut for Matt Holliday. It will certainly be interesting to see if that was a sign of things to come. If so, the Cards have suddenly become a much better team. However, I'd be hard pressed to expect the Phils to drop two games in a row, even with Rodrigo Lopez on the hill. That offense should have its way with Kyle Loshe today, just as they did back in May. Expect a few long balls from the Philadelphia sluggers. Take the Phils (-124) to win this one 7-6. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ Seattle - The Indians made this pick a very easy one based on their 9-0 blowout last night. There's no chance they win two in a row on the road. They actually face a real pitcher tonight in Erik Bedard. Unfortunately for Cleveland fans, they are handing the ball to Jeremy Sowers (2-7, 5.77). Expect Ichiro and the rest of the M's to wake up angry today. This one should be relatively easy for Seatlle. Take the Mariners minus 1.5 runs (+120) to win 6-2. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ LAA - Another tale of two teams doing different things. The Angels are contributing mightily to the Locks' rapidly increasing BAT and that makes us very happy. Today should be another day in the life of the awful road Twins. Nick Blackburn should get knocked around by the scrappy Angels' lineup and nobody aside from Mauer, Morneau and Kubel is getting anything done for Minnesota. I like the Halos minus 1.5 runs yet again (+170) to win easily. Expect a final of 7-4. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ Milwaukee - I'm expecting Yovani Gallardo to finally wake up today and throw a gem. He certainly is due. Tommy Hanson is a viable opponent but I think that Ryan Braun and/or Prince Fielder might have a big fly in them that plays a huge roll in this game. I'm cautiously getting back to being a Brew Crew supporter. Take Milwaukee (-130) to get back on track with a 5-3 victory. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Houston - The Pets are so bad that I am picking a team that is starting Russ Ortiz. This is unreal. But if the Pets can't win with Johan on the mound, how can they win at all. Houston is playing themselves into a legitimate playoff contender (much to my surprise). Playing the Pets certainly will help that cause. Take the Stros minus 1.5 runs (+165) to continue NY's misery. Final score of 7-4. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Washington - I'd rather watch a donkey sprint at the Solano County Fair than this game. No chance of a pick here.
Baltimore @ Boston - Unfortunately, this one is very straightforward. The O's can't do anything against John Lester. No matter how bad Boston's offense is going right now, they'll score runs on Jeremy Guthrie. This game will not be close. Take Beantown minus 1.5 runs (-110) to rock Baltimore, 7-1. LOCK IT UP
Texas @ Kansas City - Good team vs. bad team. Team with something to play for vs. team ready for the season to end. Home team vs. road team. I'm trying to find some reason to even consider the Royals here. Nope, there aren't any. Rangers continue to roll here even against a recently hot Luke Hochevar. Take Texas (-108) to win handily, 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Pittsburgh @ Arizona - Nope. See San Diego @ Washington
San Francisco @ Colorado - I like the Rockies to bounce back at home here. Jorge De La Rosa seems to have turned a bit of a corner in his career and is now a respectable sometime very good starting pitcher. Jonathan Sanchez is a nice story following his no-hitter but his road stats are still abysmal (0-7, 6.02). Coors Field is not designed to help out struggling pitchers. The Rocks should score often today and win this one easily. Take Colorado minus 1.5 runs (+120) to be the victorious team, 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ LA - I'm rolling the dice on the Fish in this one. I think they gained a lot of confidence in beating Clayton Kershaw last night. Now they face the struggling Hiroki Kuroda. This is another opportunity for the young Marlins to establish themselves as a legit playoff contender. Rick VandenHurk pitched well against the Padres (I know, it's the Padres) last time out and should keep Florida in this one. I like the Fish to squeak out another W in MannyLand. Take the Marlins (+150) to win 6-5. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Detroit - This has proven to be a great series so far and we expect that to continue through the weekend. The Tigers are the slightly better team in this match up and their hitters have really hit Gavin Floyd very well throughout his career (the sample size is pretty significant). As such, I'd expect Detroit to throw up some runs today. That is good news for Edwin Jackson who continues to mow down AL hitters in a truly breakthrough season. He should pitch well enough to earn the win here but beware of Jim Thome who absolutely kills Jackson (batting .700 vs. Edwin in his career). I'll take the Tigers to win another entertaining game. Give Chicago the 1.5 runs to move the moneyline to +145. Detroit takes this one 6-2. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Philadelphia - That was a hell of a debut for Matt Holliday. It will certainly be interesting to see if that was a sign of things to come. If so, the Cards have suddenly become a much better team. However, I'd be hard pressed to expect the Phils to drop two games in a row, even with Rodrigo Lopez on the hill. That offense should have its way with Kyle Loshe today, just as they did back in May. Expect a few long balls from the Philadelphia sluggers. Take the Phils (-124) to win this one 7-6. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ Seattle - The Indians made this pick a very easy one based on their 9-0 blowout last night. There's no chance they win two in a row on the road. They actually face a real pitcher tonight in Erik Bedard. Unfortunately for Cleveland fans, they are handing the ball to Jeremy Sowers (2-7, 5.77). Expect Ichiro and the rest of the M's to wake up angry today. This one should be relatively easy for Seatlle. Take the Mariners minus 1.5 runs (+120) to win 6-2. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ LAA - Another tale of two teams doing different things. The Angels are contributing mightily to the Locks' rapidly increasing BAT and that makes us very happy. Today should be another day in the life of the awful road Twins. Nick Blackburn should get knocked around by the scrappy Angels' lineup and nobody aside from Mauer, Morneau and Kubel is getting anything done for Minnesota. I like the Halos minus 1.5 runs yet again (+170) to win easily. Expect a final of 7-4. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ Milwaukee - I'm expecting Yovani Gallardo to finally wake up today and throw a gem. He certainly is due. Tommy Hanson is a viable opponent but I think that Ryan Braun and/or Prince Fielder might have a big fly in them that plays a huge roll in this game. I'm cautiously getting back to being a Brew Crew supporter. Take Milwaukee (-130) to get back on track with a 5-3 victory. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Houston - The Pets are so bad that I am picking a team that is starting Russ Ortiz. This is unreal. But if the Pets can't win with Johan on the mound, how can they win at all. Houston is playing themselves into a legitimate playoff contender (much to my surprise). Playing the Pets certainly will help that cause. Take the Stros minus 1.5 runs (+165) to continue NY's misery. Final score of 7-4. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Washington - I'd rather watch a donkey sprint at the Solano County Fair than this game. No chance of a pick here.
Baltimore @ Boston - Unfortunately, this one is very straightforward. The O's can't do anything against John Lester. No matter how bad Boston's offense is going right now, they'll score runs on Jeremy Guthrie. This game will not be close. Take Beantown minus 1.5 runs (-110) to rock Baltimore, 7-1. LOCK IT UP
Texas @ Kansas City - Good team vs. bad team. Team with something to play for vs. team ready for the season to end. Home team vs. road team. I'm trying to find some reason to even consider the Royals here. Nope, there aren't any. Rangers continue to roll here even against a recently hot Luke Hochevar. Take Texas (-108) to win handily, 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Pittsburgh @ Arizona - Nope. See San Diego @ Washington
San Francisco @ Colorado - I like the Rockies to bounce back at home here. Jorge De La Rosa seems to have turned a bit of a corner in his career and is now a respectable sometime very good starting pitcher. Jonathan Sanchez is a nice story following his no-hitter but his road stats are still abysmal (0-7, 6.02). Coors Field is not designed to help out struggling pitchers. The Rocks should score often today and win this one easily. Take Colorado minus 1.5 runs (+120) to be the victorious team, 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ LA - I'm rolling the dice on the Fish in this one. I think they gained a lot of confidence in beating Clayton Kershaw last night. Now they face the struggling Hiroki Kuroda. This is another opportunity for the young Marlins to establish themselves as a legit playoff contender. Rick VandenHurk pitched well against the Padres (I know, it's the Padres) last time out and should keep Florida in this one. I like the Fish to squeak out another W in MannyLand. Take the Marlins (+150) to win 6-5. LOCK IT UP
Let 'Em Pop, Bro
It's about time. The Locks finally got a weekend off to a solid start. We put together a 9-5 Friday and since most of our wins were in the +120 to +130 moneyline range (that's what happens when you bet against aces such as Halliday, Santana and Greinke), we added a whopping $57 to the BAT. With cumulative numbers of 123-107 (53%) and +$175, the Locks hasn't felt this good all year. We're going to look to keep the bills falling from the money tree with a full slate of games today.
Update: For all of you who had Vicente Padilla in your swine flu pool, get ready to collect your money. That dirty dog is the first Major Leaguer to contract the pig virus. Congratulations Vicente.
Cincinnati @ Chicago - This is a battle of two teams heading in two different directions. The Cubs are finding their groove now that Aramis Ramirez is back in action. They look more like the potent offense that everyone expected as opposed to the JV hitters that have been wearing Cubs' uniforms for most of the year. The Reds on the other hand have fallen off a cliff. They can't get out of their own way at this point. They should have a reasonable shot in this game based on the pitching match-up (Cueto vs. Hart) but I'm going to value momentum more than anything in this one. I think Chicago will continue to steer their ship in the right direction while Cincy continues to take on water. We'll take Chicago minus 1.5 runs (+150) to win 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Oakland @ NYY - Speaking of momentum and teams heading in different directions. Unless you live in the Bay Area, you might not be able to name more than 3 or 4 batters in Oakland's lineup. They have a young catcher (Landon Powell) who might be slower Joe Torre. You have to see some video of this kid trying to leg out a double. It is a joke. I'm still not convinced that my man Andy Pettite is completely back to normal but his last start was certainly a major relief for Yanks' fans. Last time out, Gio Gonzalez gave up 11 runs in less than three innings. For those beginners out there, that is not very good. The way the Yanks are swinging the bats, it might get worse for Gio before it gets better. Take NY minus 1.5 runs (-165) to continue their impressive run. By the way, the moneylines on these A's/Yanks battles are absurd. NY prevails 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Toronto - TAMPA BITCHES! One day after beating the incomparable Roy Halladay, the Rays get to face the very, very comparable (I'm thinking Greg Cadaret) Brian Tallet. Tallet didn't have much success against this lineup earlier this year (24.00 ERA). TB counters with the young, the wild David Price. He'll be good enough against a lineup that is a shell of the group that had fans north of the border thinking playoffs in early May. There is still enough time in this season for Toronto to drop below Baltimore and into the AL East cellar. Don't be surprised when that happens. The Jays take a step in that direction with a miserable effort today. Take Tampa (-105) to win this one easily - 7-3. LOCK IT UP
For those of you who are still just visiting this site for fun and not betting these games, I have some words for you directly from the mouth of the wise man himself, Kenneth Powers:
"I know that deep inside you there's a humongous set of testicles just waiting to pop out. Let 'em pop, bro."
We'll be back in a bit with the rest of today's games.
Update: For all of you who had Vicente Padilla in your swine flu pool, get ready to collect your money. That dirty dog is the first Major Leaguer to contract the pig virus. Congratulations Vicente.
Cincinnati @ Chicago - This is a battle of two teams heading in two different directions. The Cubs are finding their groove now that Aramis Ramirez is back in action. They look more like the potent offense that everyone expected as opposed to the JV hitters that have been wearing Cubs' uniforms for most of the year. The Reds on the other hand have fallen off a cliff. They can't get out of their own way at this point. They should have a reasonable shot in this game based on the pitching match-up (Cueto vs. Hart) but I'm going to value momentum more than anything in this one. I think Chicago will continue to steer their ship in the right direction while Cincy continues to take on water. We'll take Chicago minus 1.5 runs (+150) to win 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Oakland @ NYY - Speaking of momentum and teams heading in different directions. Unless you live in the Bay Area, you might not be able to name more than 3 or 4 batters in Oakland's lineup. They have a young catcher (Landon Powell) who might be slower Joe Torre. You have to see some video of this kid trying to leg out a double. It is a joke. I'm still not convinced that my man Andy Pettite is completely back to normal but his last start was certainly a major relief for Yanks' fans. Last time out, Gio Gonzalez gave up 11 runs in less than three innings. For those beginners out there, that is not very good. The way the Yanks are swinging the bats, it might get worse for Gio before it gets better. Take NY minus 1.5 runs (-165) to continue their impressive run. By the way, the moneylines on these A's/Yanks battles are absurd. NY prevails 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Toronto - TAMPA BITCHES! One day after beating the incomparable Roy Halladay, the Rays get to face the very, very comparable (I'm thinking Greg Cadaret) Brian Tallet. Tallet didn't have much success against this lineup earlier this year (24.00 ERA). TB counters with the young, the wild David Price. He'll be good enough against a lineup that is a shell of the group that had fans north of the border thinking playoffs in early May. There is still enough time in this season for Toronto to drop below Baltimore and into the AL East cellar. Don't be surprised when that happens. The Jays take a step in that direction with a miserable effort today. Take Tampa (-105) to win this one easily - 7-3. LOCK IT UP
For those of you who are still just visiting this site for fun and not betting these games, I have some words for you directly from the mouth of the wise man himself, Kenneth Powers:
"I know that deep inside you there's a humongous set of testicles just waiting to pop out. Let 'em pop, bro."
We'll be back in a bit with the rest of today's games.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Friday Freakout - Part 2
Here's a breakdown of all Friday night games:
Oakland @ NYY - You don't have to be wildly perceptive to recognize that the Yankees are in the midst of a pretty good run right now. Even getting down 3-0 early last night with their ace on the hill didn't slow this team down. With Phil Hughes' new role as an 8th inning lockdown artist, you now need to beat the Yankees at a 7 inning game. The A's begin the the post-Matt Holliday era tonight. Not sure too many A's fans are crushed to see him go. What a disappointing tenure that was. Brett Anderson has been lights out recently (bringing a string of 21 scoreless innings into this contest). However, the Yankees are familiar with him and have knocked him around already this year. Joba takes the hill for the Yanks looking to build on a very solid outing last time out. I think this one stays relatively tight but the A's just don't have the offensive firepower to get this done. We'll continue to ride the Yankees to the bank. Take NY minus 1.5 runs (+105) to win 5-2. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Washington - Time to return to our boycotting ways. We just can't muster enough interest in this series to break these games down. If you want to bet this battle of buttnuts, you're on your own.
St. Louis @ Philadelphia - Now here is a baseball series. Two first-place teams; one having significantly upgraded its lineup earlier in the day. Some big-time hitters (Pujols, Utley, Howard, etc.). This should be fun. Unfortunately for St. Louis, they've burned through their two best starters the past two games so won't get to throw either one at the Phillies' vaunted lineup. Instead, tonight they turn to Joel Pineiro who is having a resurgence under the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan. The Phillies counter with undefeated rookie J.A. Happ (7-0, 2.68). There is not much of a track record for either of these teams against these pitchers so we're flying a bit blind on this one. The Cards are not at their best against lefties and we doubt Holliday will arrive in time to play in this game. Plus, regardless of who is pitching, it is hard not to see the Phils putting runs up on the board. We're going with the home team to win a close one. Take the Phils (-135) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Toronto - Talk about a pitchers' duel. Garza vs. Halladay promises to be just that. So much so that we're seeing the smallest u/o line in an AL East battle (7) in a long time. That is just too small of a number for our comfort (though the under may certainly come in). We're smelling a bit of an upset here. Garza seems due for a dominating performance. He has the stuff, he just needs to channel it. Halladay is great but not unbeatable. I like the moneyline on TB, plus picking the Rays allows me to yell TAMPA BITCHES! Take the Rays (+130) to knock off Roy in what might be his last start as a Canadian. TB wins 3-2. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ Boston - Is this the game that the BoSox bats finally wake up? We're not optimistic. Brad Bergesen dominated the Sox last time they faced off and you know I'm always looking for an excuse to back the O's and their young bats. I think Brad Penny is beginning to hit the wall a bit. Baltimore knocked him around pretty good last time. I'm predicting that the Beantown free fall continues for another day. Take the O's (+145) to kick this series off with a W. Final score is 7-5. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ Milwaukee - The Braves are rolling (we didn't see that coming) and send Javy Vazquez to the hill to take on the tough-to-read Brew Crew. Manny Parra has looked good since his return from AAA but is due for a misstep. Chipper has 2 HRs and 3 career ABs against Parra and the rest of the Bravos hit him well too. Until the Brewers start to pitch, they're in trouble. Especially against an offense as hot as Atlanta. We like the Braves (-128) to win this one 6-3. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Houston - Johan takes the hill and this is the only time every five days that you can even consider backing the Pets. However, keep in mind that he is very un-Santana like on the road this year (4-5, 4.20). The Pets get a chance to face former teammate Mike Hampton who is pitching reasonably well this season. Neither of these teams lights up the scoreboard against lefties but the Astros are riding a nice little run (sweep of St. Louis) and the Pets are, well, the Pets. Based on Johan's start, you can get quite an attractive moneyline on the hometown Stros. I'd take it. Houston (+115) to win 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Texas @ Kansas City - I really enjoy picking against the Royals with Greinke on the hill because you get such a great moneyline. This guy is very good but not nearly as unhittable as he was to start the season (when he shut out these Rangers with 10 Ks). I think this Ranger team is very good and will continue to be heard from up until September. I also like the cut of this Scott Feldman's jib. He keeps Texas in games, plain and simple. I think the Rangers figure Greinke out just enough to steal this game. Take Texas (+132) to prevail 4-3. LOCK IT UP
San Francisco @ Colorado - The Giants' tour of the U.S. continues with a stop in Denver this weekend. The Rockies have been one of baseball's hottest teams recently and SF's offense has gone AWOL. However, Matt Cain is pitching and the Giants are an underdog. That is something that I am interested in. Cain spun 6 shutout innings in Denver earlier this year so isn't intimidated by Coors Field. I like the Giants to get back on track here and scratch out a W. Take SF (+110) to win a low scoring affair (especially for Coors) - 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Pittsburgh @ Arizona - See San Diego @ Washington. This ain't happening.
Minnesota @ LAA - Another day, another terribly demoralizing road loss for the Twinkies. You've got to wonder how much more this team can take. On the other hand, what about the Halos. This is a very, very good team that just knows how to play baseball the right way and win games. And that is with Torii Hunter and Vladdy Daddy on the DL. Scary. They give the ball to their ace, John Lackey tonight and then take batting practice against Francisco Liriano. I'm not predicting good things for Minnesota. Take LAA minus 1.5 runs (+140) to win easily, 8-3. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ Seattle - The Indian train wreck pulls into the Pacific Northwest. Aaron Laffey on the mound does not inspire confidence against a Mariner lineup that just faced him. It also means that the Indian bullpen will also be playing a prominent role in this game. That is very good news for Seattle and Ryan Rowland-Smith who gets his second start of the year. The scoreboard has the potential to explode in this one. Regardless, we expect the M's to have the bigger number next to their name when all is said and done. Score another one for scrappy Seattle. Take the Mariners minus 1.5 runs (+170) to win, 9-6. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ LA - It is really difficult to take the under when it is sitting at 7 runs, but I think this is the perfect match-up for it to work out. There are very few pitchers in the Bigs right now that can throw it better than Josh Johnson and Clayton Kershaw. Dr. Kershaw has already dominated the Fish one time this year. Here's looking at number 2 tonight. This game could go either way in terms of who wins, but there is little doubt in my mind that it ends up being a 3-2 or 2-1 type game. With that in mind, take the under (-105). LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Detroit - Game 2 - The stats bear out that it is incredibly difficult to sweep both games of a doubleheader in baseball. With the Tigers cruising along in what looks to be a victory in Game 1, we are initially biased to go with the ChiSox in Game 2. Then I noticed that the Sox are giving the ball to El Fato - Bartolo Colon. Here's a guy who was literally reported missing earlier this month. Is he really the answer to preventing the double-dip sweep? Well, I guess when the other team is turning to a guy named Eddie Bonine (sounds like an anti-nausea medication), then Bartolo might just be the better starter in the game. Considering the starting pitchers and the fact that the skippers will likely be resting some regulars in the late game, this one shapes up as a disaster. So I'll just go with my no double-header sweeps rule and back Chicago. Ride the ChiSox (EVEN) and the big man to victory. LOCK IT UP
Oakland @ NYY - You don't have to be wildly perceptive to recognize that the Yankees are in the midst of a pretty good run right now. Even getting down 3-0 early last night with their ace on the hill didn't slow this team down. With Phil Hughes' new role as an 8th inning lockdown artist, you now need to beat the Yankees at a 7 inning game. The A's begin the the post-Matt Holliday era tonight. Not sure too many A's fans are crushed to see him go. What a disappointing tenure that was. Brett Anderson has been lights out recently (bringing a string of 21 scoreless innings into this contest). However, the Yankees are familiar with him and have knocked him around already this year. Joba takes the hill for the Yanks looking to build on a very solid outing last time out. I think this one stays relatively tight but the A's just don't have the offensive firepower to get this done. We'll continue to ride the Yankees to the bank. Take NY minus 1.5 runs (+105) to win 5-2. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Washington - Time to return to our boycotting ways. We just can't muster enough interest in this series to break these games down. If you want to bet this battle of buttnuts, you're on your own.
St. Louis @ Philadelphia - Now here is a baseball series. Two first-place teams; one having significantly upgraded its lineup earlier in the day. Some big-time hitters (Pujols, Utley, Howard, etc.). This should be fun. Unfortunately for St. Louis, they've burned through their two best starters the past two games so won't get to throw either one at the Phillies' vaunted lineup. Instead, tonight they turn to Joel Pineiro who is having a resurgence under the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan. The Phillies counter with undefeated rookie J.A. Happ (7-0, 2.68). There is not much of a track record for either of these teams against these pitchers so we're flying a bit blind on this one. The Cards are not at their best against lefties and we doubt Holliday will arrive in time to play in this game. Plus, regardless of who is pitching, it is hard not to see the Phils putting runs up on the board. We're going with the home team to win a close one. Take the Phils (-135) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Toronto - Talk about a pitchers' duel. Garza vs. Halladay promises to be just that. So much so that we're seeing the smallest u/o line in an AL East battle (7) in a long time. That is just too small of a number for our comfort (though the under may certainly come in). We're smelling a bit of an upset here. Garza seems due for a dominating performance. He has the stuff, he just needs to channel it. Halladay is great but not unbeatable. I like the moneyline on TB, plus picking the Rays allows me to yell TAMPA BITCHES! Take the Rays (+130) to knock off Roy in what might be his last start as a Canadian. TB wins 3-2. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ Boston - Is this the game that the BoSox bats finally wake up? We're not optimistic. Brad Bergesen dominated the Sox last time they faced off and you know I'm always looking for an excuse to back the O's and their young bats. I think Brad Penny is beginning to hit the wall a bit. Baltimore knocked him around pretty good last time. I'm predicting that the Beantown free fall continues for another day. Take the O's (+145) to kick this series off with a W. Final score is 7-5. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ Milwaukee - The Braves are rolling (we didn't see that coming) and send Javy Vazquez to the hill to take on the tough-to-read Brew Crew. Manny Parra has looked good since his return from AAA but is due for a misstep. Chipper has 2 HRs and 3 career ABs against Parra and the rest of the Bravos hit him well too. Until the Brewers start to pitch, they're in trouble. Especially against an offense as hot as Atlanta. We like the Braves (-128) to win this one 6-3. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Houston - Johan takes the hill and this is the only time every five days that you can even consider backing the Pets. However, keep in mind that he is very un-Santana like on the road this year (4-5, 4.20). The Pets get a chance to face former teammate Mike Hampton who is pitching reasonably well this season. Neither of these teams lights up the scoreboard against lefties but the Astros are riding a nice little run (sweep of St. Louis) and the Pets are, well, the Pets. Based on Johan's start, you can get quite an attractive moneyline on the hometown Stros. I'd take it. Houston (+115) to win 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Texas @ Kansas City - I really enjoy picking against the Royals with Greinke on the hill because you get such a great moneyline. This guy is very good but not nearly as unhittable as he was to start the season (when he shut out these Rangers with 10 Ks). I think this Ranger team is very good and will continue to be heard from up until September. I also like the cut of this Scott Feldman's jib. He keeps Texas in games, plain and simple. I think the Rangers figure Greinke out just enough to steal this game. Take Texas (+132) to prevail 4-3. LOCK IT UP
San Francisco @ Colorado - The Giants' tour of the U.S. continues with a stop in Denver this weekend. The Rockies have been one of baseball's hottest teams recently and SF's offense has gone AWOL. However, Matt Cain is pitching and the Giants are an underdog. That is something that I am interested in. Cain spun 6 shutout innings in Denver earlier this year so isn't intimidated by Coors Field. I like the Giants to get back on track here and scratch out a W. Take SF (+110) to win a low scoring affair (especially for Coors) - 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Pittsburgh @ Arizona - See San Diego @ Washington. This ain't happening.
Minnesota @ LAA - Another day, another terribly demoralizing road loss for the Twinkies. You've got to wonder how much more this team can take. On the other hand, what about the Halos. This is a very, very good team that just knows how to play baseball the right way and win games. And that is with Torii Hunter and Vladdy Daddy on the DL. Scary. They give the ball to their ace, John Lackey tonight and then take batting practice against Francisco Liriano. I'm not predicting good things for Minnesota. Take LAA minus 1.5 runs (+140) to win easily, 8-3. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ Seattle - The Indian train wreck pulls into the Pacific Northwest. Aaron Laffey on the mound does not inspire confidence against a Mariner lineup that just faced him. It also means that the Indian bullpen will also be playing a prominent role in this game. That is very good news for Seattle and Ryan Rowland-Smith who gets his second start of the year. The scoreboard has the potential to explode in this one. Regardless, we expect the M's to have the bigger number next to their name when all is said and done. Score another one for scrappy Seattle. Take the Mariners minus 1.5 runs (+170) to win, 9-6. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ LA - It is really difficult to take the under when it is sitting at 7 runs, but I think this is the perfect match-up for it to work out. There are very few pitchers in the Bigs right now that can throw it better than Josh Johnson and Clayton Kershaw. Dr. Kershaw has already dominated the Fish one time this year. Here's looking at number 2 tonight. This game could go either way in terms of who wins, but there is little doubt in my mind that it ends up being a 3-2 or 2-1 type game. With that in mind, take the under (-105). LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Detroit - Game 2 - The stats bear out that it is incredibly difficult to sweep both games of a doubleheader in baseball. With the Tigers cruising along in what looks to be a victory in Game 1, we are initially biased to go with the ChiSox in Game 2. Then I noticed that the Sox are giving the ball to El Fato - Bartolo Colon. Here's a guy who was literally reported missing earlier this month. Is he really the answer to preventing the double-dip sweep? Well, I guess when the other team is turning to a guy named Eddie Bonine (sounds like an anti-nausea medication), then Bartolo might just be the better starter in the game. Considering the starting pitchers and the fact that the skippers will likely be resting some regulars in the late game, this one shapes up as a disaster. So I'll just go with my no double-header sweeps rule and back Chicago. Ride the ChiSox (EVEN) and the big man to victory. LOCK IT UP
Firday Freak-Out
Unusually, we have two day games taking place on this July Friday. But first let's recap what proved to be a mixed bag on Thursday night. The Locks performed well nailing 4 out of 5 contests as the Angels came up just short of making it a perfect 5 for 5. In the end, we netted another $24 for the BAT, pushing us into triple digits for the first time this season at +$118.
In other news, the 70s Style Bush absolutely mailed in a bomb of an effort and were thoroughly demoralized in a 3-1 defeat. Yes, that is the score of a real slow-pitch softball game. And, it took a scorching single from Timmy Crvarich in the bottom of the 7th to even get us on the board. A gem of a game pitched by KP went for naught as the Bush's bats never showed up. That drops the defending D-League champs to 1-2 and places them in a dangerous early-season position with the very real prospect of missing the playoffs. Stay tuned to see if the Bushmen turn this thing around.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: TODAY IS THE LAST DAY TO SUBMIT ENTRIES IN THE NFL OVER/UNDER CHALLENGE. I'VE RECEIVED A FEW SO FAR. IF YOU WANT IN, GET ME YOUR PICKS BY THE END OF THE DAY. tbrons@vidallc.com
Here's a breakdown of today's two day games:
Chicago vs. Detroit - The afterglow of Mark Buehrle's perfect game wears off quickly as the Sox run into the buzzsaw that is Justin Verlander. I know as well as anyone the schizophrenic nature of a Jose Contreras start. He looks like Bob Gibson one day and Debbie Gibson the next. He'll need to be the former today to keep this game close. We're not convinced. Count on hearing some "Only in My Dreams" before long in this one. Verlander dominates and the Tigers set the tone for this series early on. Take Detroit minus 1.5 runs (+115) to win 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Cincinnati @ Chicago - This Reds team has been scuffling badly of late, starting with a horrendous performance against the Pets heading into the All-Star break. On the road, their struggles have been colossal and that includes today's starter Aaron Harang. He's 0-5, 5.94 in his last 8 road starts. The Locks is a big fan of Chicago's young gun Randy Wells. Count on him to provide another quality start. This game is determined by the unpredictable Cubs' offense. Can they get to Harang and push him further into his downward road spiral? We say yes with Aramis Ramirez leading the charge. Take the Cubs minus 1.5 runs (+130) to win big. Final score is 8-4. LOCK IT UP
See you this afternoon with all the night games.
In other news, the 70s Style Bush absolutely mailed in a bomb of an effort and were thoroughly demoralized in a 3-1 defeat. Yes, that is the score of a real slow-pitch softball game. And, it took a scorching single from Timmy Crvarich in the bottom of the 7th to even get us on the board. A gem of a game pitched by KP went for naught as the Bush's bats never showed up. That drops the defending D-League champs to 1-2 and places them in a dangerous early-season position with the very real prospect of missing the playoffs. Stay tuned to see if the Bushmen turn this thing around.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: TODAY IS THE LAST DAY TO SUBMIT ENTRIES IN THE NFL OVER/UNDER CHALLENGE. I'VE RECEIVED A FEW SO FAR. IF YOU WANT IN, GET ME YOUR PICKS BY THE END OF THE DAY. tbrons@vidallc.com
Here's a breakdown of today's two day games:
Chicago vs. Detroit - The afterglow of Mark Buehrle's perfect game wears off quickly as the Sox run into the buzzsaw that is Justin Verlander. I know as well as anyone the schizophrenic nature of a Jose Contreras start. He looks like Bob Gibson one day and Debbie Gibson the next. He'll need to be the former today to keep this game close. We're not convinced. Count on hearing some "Only in My Dreams" before long in this one. Verlander dominates and the Tigers set the tone for this series early on. Take Detroit minus 1.5 runs (+115) to win 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Cincinnati @ Chicago - This Reds team has been scuffling badly of late, starting with a horrendous performance against the Pets heading into the All-Star break. On the road, their struggles have been colossal and that includes today's starter Aaron Harang. He's 0-5, 5.94 in his last 8 road starts. The Locks is a big fan of Chicago's young gun Randy Wells. Count on him to provide another quality start. This game is determined by the unpredictable Cubs' offense. Can they get to Harang and push him further into his downward road spiral? We say yes with Aramis Ramirez leading the charge. Take the Cubs minus 1.5 runs (+130) to win big. Final score is 8-4. LOCK IT UP
See you this afternoon with all the night games.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Birthdays, Bullpens and Blowouts
Let's kick off today's post with some happy birthday wishes to two of the Locks' loyal followers. Mark Borton and John Cahill, share, among other things, July 23 1975 as the day they popped into this world. Hopefully they are both living it up today and winning some money on the Locks' locks. You can all thank Mark directly for causing the Locks to not get in picks for any of today's early games. Note to readers: Hot sake does not increase blogging productivity.
Now I would like to turn my venom toward a group of people for whom my patience has completely run out. The culprit: MLB bullpens. These guys are killing me on a nightly basis. I'm losing a good 2-3 wins every night because these slap-dicks that couldn't make it as starters can't get a few more outs to close out games that should already be decided. Last night it was Ryan Franklin in Houston and Dan Wheeler in Chicago that couldn't get the job done. They took the Locks from an impressive 10-5 evening to a mediocre 8-7. This is another reminder of just how tough it is to hit baseball games consistently. Regardless, we will carry on and continue to deliver you winners.
We did manage to bring in $14 from last night's 8-7 effort. It brings our BAT back up into the 90s and we currently sit at +$94. Our overall record checks in at 110-101. Since we're only attacking today's night games, we're limited to a total of five contests plus a bonus game (see below). Maybe this is a good thing as we can really drill down on these battles.
Upon review, we have come to one conclusion regarding these games. We love the favorites and don't expect any of these games to be close. Tonight we'll finally nudge that BAT into triple digits. Here's what you need to know:
Oakland @ NYY - The Athletic Supporters should have stayed out West. They are not going to enjoy the new Yankee Stadium. CC is gonna set em up and sit em down. This won't be like beating up on an inept Minnesota pitching staff for the A's. I don't expect the Yanks to have any difficulty figuring out my cousin Vinny Mazzaro even though they struggle against pitchers they haven't faced before. The Bombers are in the zone and will stay there. Give Oakland the 1.5 and take the Yanks (-130). Final score is 8-2. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Philadelphia - This is about as lopsided of a ML game as you can get these days. Not sure they should even play this one. Look for Philly to light up the scoreboard. Take them minus 1.5 runs (-135) in a 9-4 beatdown. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Washington - The Cards need someone to take their frustration out on following that sweep in Houston. This doesn't look good for Washington, especially since Jordan Zimmermann can't make his scheduled start. Do you think Collin Balester is psyched to face Fat Albert? Look to the Cards to bounce back in a big way tonight. Give the Nats the 1.5 runs and take St. Louie (-115). They will prevail 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Pittsburgh @ Arizona - At least we can get excited about the DBacks every 5 days. Dan Harren will do that for a team. This will not be fun for Pittsburgh. They go from facing the Brewers AAA pitching staff to a guy with a sub-2.00 ERA. Poor Charlie Morton can throw a gem and still get beat. Take the DBacks and give the 1.5 runs to Pitt (EVEN). Harren gets another step closer to his Cy Young award, 4-0. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ LAA - We're not jumping off the Angels money train anytime soon, certainly not with the road weary Twinkies blowing into town - and we mean "blowing." Seriously, this team is nearly unbeatable at home but unbelievably Met-like on the road. What did they just do in Oakland? Embarrassing. Things only get worse for them in Southern California. The Angels will continue to batter inferior opponents. Take them and give the 1.5 runs (+140). This one will not be much of a game. Halos win 6-2. LOCK IT UP
THURSDAY BONUS GAME
Blue Donkeys @ 70s Style Bush - Here's a big matchup that is going down tonight in the Pleasant Hill D League softball. The Bush is coming off a 15-4 drubbing of the Salty Dogs in a game that wasn't even that close. It was the team's first victory since taking home the title last season. Meanwhile, the Donkeys are smarting from a 14-14 tie in last week's late game. The Bush remains shorthanded with two key starters AWOL for tonight's game but looks to build some serious momentum in their charge for a D-League repeat. In keeping with the trend in our MLB picks, we don't think this one is that competitive. We're taking the Bush from the 70s minus 1.5 runs (+120) to win this one going away behind the crafty pitching of Kevin Pollock and an offensive explosion anchored by John Yannuzzi and Tim Crvarich. Bush is victorious 13-6. LOCK IT UP
Now I would like to turn my venom toward a group of people for whom my patience has completely run out. The culprit: MLB bullpens. These guys are killing me on a nightly basis. I'm losing a good 2-3 wins every night because these slap-dicks that couldn't make it as starters can't get a few more outs to close out games that should already be decided. Last night it was Ryan Franklin in Houston and Dan Wheeler in Chicago that couldn't get the job done. They took the Locks from an impressive 10-5 evening to a mediocre 8-7. This is another reminder of just how tough it is to hit baseball games consistently. Regardless, we will carry on and continue to deliver you winners.
We did manage to bring in $14 from last night's 8-7 effort. It brings our BAT back up into the 90s and we currently sit at +$94. Our overall record checks in at 110-101. Since we're only attacking today's night games, we're limited to a total of five contests plus a bonus game (see below). Maybe this is a good thing as we can really drill down on these battles.
Upon review, we have come to one conclusion regarding these games. We love the favorites and don't expect any of these games to be close. Tonight we'll finally nudge that BAT into triple digits. Here's what you need to know:
Oakland @ NYY - The Athletic Supporters should have stayed out West. They are not going to enjoy the new Yankee Stadium. CC is gonna set em up and sit em down. This won't be like beating up on an inept Minnesota pitching staff for the A's. I don't expect the Yanks to have any difficulty figuring out my cousin Vinny Mazzaro even though they struggle against pitchers they haven't faced before. The Bombers are in the zone and will stay there. Give Oakland the 1.5 and take the Yanks (-130). Final score is 8-2. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ Philadelphia - This is about as lopsided of a ML game as you can get these days. Not sure they should even play this one. Look for Philly to light up the scoreboard. Take them minus 1.5 runs (-135) in a 9-4 beatdown. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Washington - The Cards need someone to take their frustration out on following that sweep in Houston. This doesn't look good for Washington, especially since Jordan Zimmermann can't make his scheduled start. Do you think Collin Balester is psyched to face Fat Albert? Look to the Cards to bounce back in a big way tonight. Give the Nats the 1.5 runs and take St. Louie (-115). They will prevail 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Pittsburgh @ Arizona - At least we can get excited about the DBacks every 5 days. Dan Harren will do that for a team. This will not be fun for Pittsburgh. They go from facing the Brewers AAA pitching staff to a guy with a sub-2.00 ERA. Poor Charlie Morton can throw a gem and still get beat. Take the DBacks and give the 1.5 runs to Pitt (EVEN). Harren gets another step closer to his Cy Young award, 4-0. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ LAA - We're not jumping off the Angels money train anytime soon, certainly not with the road weary Twinkies blowing into town - and we mean "blowing." Seriously, this team is nearly unbeatable at home but unbelievably Met-like on the road. What did they just do in Oakland? Embarrassing. Things only get worse for them in Southern California. The Angels will continue to batter inferior opponents. Take them and give the 1.5 runs (+140). This one will not be much of a game. Halos win 6-2. LOCK IT UP
THURSDAY BONUS GAME
Blue Donkeys @ 70s Style Bush - Here's a big matchup that is going down tonight in the Pleasant Hill D League softball. The Bush is coming off a 15-4 drubbing of the Salty Dogs in a game that wasn't even that close. It was the team's first victory since taking home the title last season. Meanwhile, the Donkeys are smarting from a 14-14 tie in last week's late game. The Bush remains shorthanded with two key starters AWOL for tonight's game but looks to build some serious momentum in their charge for a D-League repeat. In keeping with the trend in our MLB picks, we don't think this one is that competitive. We're taking the Bush from the 70s minus 1.5 runs (+120) to win this one going away behind the crafty pitching of Kevin Pollock and an offensive explosion anchored by John Yannuzzi and Tim Crvarich. Bush is victorious 13-6. LOCK IT UP
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Three Times is a Charm
It's already been an interesting day in the world of baseball. The BoSox have swung a deal to land a mediocre first baseman to go along with their DH/corner infielder logjam of Ortiz, Youkilis and Lowell. Not sure how this is a fit for Boston but they usually have a fairly intelligent plan in place so we'll cut them some slack at this point. We've had a total of six contest played out under the midday sun and we're 1-1 so far (the freaking Brewers can't pitch their way out of a paper bag). Now, it is time to tackle Wednesday's nine night games.
San Francisco @ Atlanta - I know the Giants have looked like the Bad News Bears and the Braves like the '27 Yankees during the first two games of this series. However, if you can get the Giants at a -107 underdog when Tim Lincecum is on the mound, you lock that up, and fast! Even more so when the opponent is Atlanta, against whom Timmy is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his career. We'll take the Giants (-107) and hope the offense can push a run or two across against Jair Jurrjens. The under (7) looks pretty tasty here as well but we're not picking it. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Washington - I'm not interested in getting into bed with the Mets. Even against the Nats. If Pelfrey wants to be anything more than a circus sideshow he better establish some semblance of consistency on the mound. He fluctuates between atrocious and very good with no discernible explanation. Perhaps he is learning by watching Ollie Perez. There are a number of key hitters on the Nats who like to face Pelfrey so tonight might fall into the atrocious camp. Craig Stammen has been pitching progressively better as the season advances. The Pets provide a nice opportunity to keep that improvement moving forward. Take Washington (-116) to win this game and the series, 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Seattle @ Detroit - I'll tell you what, this Mariners team is freaking scrappy. It's hard to get excited about them on paper but then you watch them play and they are not an easy out. And that is when King Felix isn't pitching for them, which he is tonight. Opposing Hernandez will be Armando Galarraga who might as well be on the take from the Locks with how predictable he is. This game has all the markings of a mutli-run Mariner win. Don't expect a shutout from the King as there are a few Tigers that hit him (Cabrera, Granderson and Polanco) but you can mark down a Seattle victory. Take the M's minus 1.5 runs (+125) to win 7-4. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ Toronto - No Cleveland, no Cliff Lee = no Chance. It really is amazing that the Indians need Clifford to throw a complete game every time in order to give them a chance to win. To his credit, he keeps finding a way to do. In the event any of you are confused, Carl Pavano is not Cliff Lee. That is simply wonderful news for the Jays. This one will not be close as Ricky Romero should handle the Indians while the Jays bats pummel Pavano. Take Toronto minus 1.5 runs (+135) in this one. Final score of 8-3. LOCK IT UP
Boston @ Texas - I'm inclined to continue to pick the Red Sox to win as that appears to have helped the Yankees climb into first place in the AL East. However, I'm finally going to concede that these bats are not interested in waking up. They simply have started their typical August swoon in July this year. They certainly could get back on track tonight against the always grumpy Vicente Padilla but I'm betting against it. I think Clay Buchholz gets exposed by a very good Rangers lineup and Beantown cries into their beers for another night. Take the Rangers (+115) to win 7-3 and sweep the series. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Houston - OK, I'm finally ready to concede that the Astros are a bit better than I thought. This has definitely been an impressive showing against the NL Central leaders. That said, there is no way that Fat Albert and Chris Carpenter allow the Cards to get swept here. Plus we get the benefit of a reasonable moneyline in a Carpenter start since he is being opposed by Roy Oswalt, a real Munson. Take St. Louie (-115) to take one home on getaway day. Final score is 4-2. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Kansas City - I'm going to push my luck here with the Halos even though I think Joe Saunders is a complete fraud. That is how piss-poor these Royals are (see yesterday's installment of Spotlight on Sucking). I even think that Brian Bannister is a solid starter. Regardless, we're going to keep making money off the broken backs of KC's finest. Take LAA minus 1.5 runs (+145) in a game that is never really close. Final score of 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Chicago - This has quietly been a great, great series. So much so that they'll make it four games and play an afternoon affair tomorrow. Both games so far have come down to the last batter with the teams each winning once. Just because we want to channel our inner Stevie Janowski, I'm going to have to say, TAMPA BITCHES. Ride Big Game James to a victory here as the ChiSox turn to some hump named Carlos Torres in his ML debut. I know it's hump day, but it's not this humps day. The Rays see blood in the water in Boston and are going to work to continue to close the gap for a wild card spot. The play is TB to win (-137). Final score is 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Cincinnati @ LA - We'll close with an easy one. The Dodgers have awoken. Chad Billingsley is going to rebound from his last poor start with a vengeance (the Reds can't hit this guy). Bronson Arroyo's nice little run of solid starts ends at two as the Dodgers treat him with great disdain. Take LA minus 1.5 runs (+110) to cap a wildly successful day of baseball. Dodgers win 8-2. LOCK IT UP
San Francisco @ Atlanta - I know the Giants have looked like the Bad News Bears and the Braves like the '27 Yankees during the first two games of this series. However, if you can get the Giants at a -107 underdog when Tim Lincecum is on the mound, you lock that up, and fast! Even more so when the opponent is Atlanta, against whom Timmy is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his career. We'll take the Giants (-107) and hope the offense can push a run or two across against Jair Jurrjens. The under (7) looks pretty tasty here as well but we're not picking it. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Washington - I'm not interested in getting into bed with the Mets. Even against the Nats. If Pelfrey wants to be anything more than a circus sideshow he better establish some semblance of consistency on the mound. He fluctuates between atrocious and very good with no discernible explanation. Perhaps he is learning by watching Ollie Perez. There are a number of key hitters on the Nats who like to face Pelfrey so tonight might fall into the atrocious camp. Craig Stammen has been pitching progressively better as the season advances. The Pets provide a nice opportunity to keep that improvement moving forward. Take Washington (-116) to win this game and the series, 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Seattle @ Detroit - I'll tell you what, this Mariners team is freaking scrappy. It's hard to get excited about them on paper but then you watch them play and they are not an easy out. And that is when King Felix isn't pitching for them, which he is tonight. Opposing Hernandez will be Armando Galarraga who might as well be on the take from the Locks with how predictable he is. This game has all the markings of a mutli-run Mariner win. Don't expect a shutout from the King as there are a few Tigers that hit him (Cabrera, Granderson and Polanco) but you can mark down a Seattle victory. Take the M's minus 1.5 runs (+125) to win 7-4. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ Toronto - No Cleveland, no Cliff Lee = no Chance. It really is amazing that the Indians need Clifford to throw a complete game every time in order to give them a chance to win. To his credit, he keeps finding a way to do. In the event any of you are confused, Carl Pavano is not Cliff Lee. That is simply wonderful news for the Jays. This one will not be close as Ricky Romero should handle the Indians while the Jays bats pummel Pavano. Take Toronto minus 1.5 runs (+135) in this one. Final score of 8-3. LOCK IT UP
Boston @ Texas - I'm inclined to continue to pick the Red Sox to win as that appears to have helped the Yankees climb into first place in the AL East. However, I'm finally going to concede that these bats are not interested in waking up. They simply have started their typical August swoon in July this year. They certainly could get back on track tonight against the always grumpy Vicente Padilla but I'm betting against it. I think Clay Buchholz gets exposed by a very good Rangers lineup and Beantown cries into their beers for another night. Take the Rangers (+115) to win 7-3 and sweep the series. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Houston - OK, I'm finally ready to concede that the Astros are a bit better than I thought. This has definitely been an impressive showing against the NL Central leaders. That said, there is no way that Fat Albert and Chris Carpenter allow the Cards to get swept here. Plus we get the benefit of a reasonable moneyline in a Carpenter start since he is being opposed by Roy Oswalt, a real Munson. Take St. Louie (-115) to take one home on getaway day. Final score is 4-2. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Kansas City - I'm going to push my luck here with the Halos even though I think Joe Saunders is a complete fraud. That is how piss-poor these Royals are (see yesterday's installment of Spotlight on Sucking). I even think that Brian Bannister is a solid starter. Regardless, we're going to keep making money off the broken backs of KC's finest. Take LAA minus 1.5 runs (+145) in a game that is never really close. Final score of 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Chicago - This has quietly been a great, great series. So much so that they'll make it four games and play an afternoon affair tomorrow. Both games so far have come down to the last batter with the teams each winning once. Just because we want to channel our inner Stevie Janowski, I'm going to have to say, TAMPA BITCHES. Ride Big Game James to a victory here as the ChiSox turn to some hump named Carlos Torres in his ML debut. I know it's hump day, but it's not this humps day. The Rays see blood in the water in Boston and are going to work to continue to close the gap for a wild card spot. The play is TB to win (-137). Final score is 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Cincinnati @ LA - We'll close with an easy one. The Dodgers have awoken. Chad Billingsley is going to rebound from his last poor start with a vengeance (the Reds can't hit this guy). Bronson Arroyo's nice little run of solid starts ends at two as the Dodgers treat him with great disdain. Take LA minus 1.5 runs (+110) to cap a wildly successful day of baseball. Dodgers win 8-2. LOCK IT UP
Hump Day - Part Deux
Even though we went 8-9 last evening, we managed to scratch out a $1 profit. That brings the BAT to +$80 and our cumulative record to 102-94.
Since the MLB schedule is a revolving door today, we're going to post three different columns analyzing the games. Last night we gave you the three early games (So far: Yanks look good, Brewers bad and Cubs can't tell).
We have three midday games on this Wednesday as well. As such, here is the second of today's three installments.
Florida @ San Diego - We tried to get cute last night and support the oh so woeful San Diego Padres. What were we thinking? That offense is horrendous. Is it even conceivable that Florida can sweep a team on the West Coast? Methinks the answer is yes. Locks favorite Ricky Nolasco is on the hill. While the Fish are not necessarily an offensive juggernaut, they still have enough to wrap this one up early and then head on over to the must-see San Diego Zoo. Take Florida (-144) to win 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Oakland - Here's another example of us going against our basic rules (e.g. the A's completely suck) and trying to win points by being contrarian last evening. We won't make that mistake again today. Especially with the Twins throwing a southpaw against Oakland (A's are 12-19 vs. lefties this year). The thing that makes backing the Twins so tough is that their pitchers turn into little girls on the road. The thing(s) that makes backing the Twins so easy are their 3-5 hitters (Mauer, Morneau and Kubel). Look to Minny (-107) to take the rubber game of this series 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Arizona @ Colorado - For some reason, we're absolutely agonizing over this game. Perhaps it is the wildly inflated moneyline (Colorado -225). Perhaps it is because John Garland has pitched much better for the DBacks than his numbers indicate, especially as of late. Give me a minute here. OK. Thanks. Now back to reality. The Rockies are a very solid team, playing very good baseball of late and, most importantly, making us more consistent dough than any other ML team. Let's not get cute (we saw what that did to us last night). John Garland is John Garland and that is no compliment. Umbaldo Jiminez has a no-hitter in him sometime over the next season or two. Colorado is where that really crazy train that makes everything get really cold, really fast comes from. Nuff said. Rockies minus 1.5 runs (-110). They will win 6-2. LOCK IT UP
Since the MLB schedule is a revolving door today, we're going to post three different columns analyzing the games. Last night we gave you the three early games (So far: Yanks look good, Brewers bad and Cubs can't tell).
We have three midday games on this Wednesday as well. As such, here is the second of today's three installments.
Florida @ San Diego - We tried to get cute last night and support the oh so woeful San Diego Padres. What were we thinking? That offense is horrendous. Is it even conceivable that Florida can sweep a team on the West Coast? Methinks the answer is yes. Locks favorite Ricky Nolasco is on the hill. While the Fish are not necessarily an offensive juggernaut, they still have enough to wrap this one up early and then head on over to the must-see San Diego Zoo. Take Florida (-144) to win 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Oakland - Here's another example of us going against our basic rules (e.g. the A's completely suck) and trying to win points by being contrarian last evening. We won't make that mistake again today. Especially with the Twins throwing a southpaw against Oakland (A's are 12-19 vs. lefties this year). The thing that makes backing the Twins so tough is that their pitchers turn into little girls on the road. The thing(s) that makes backing the Twins so easy are their 3-5 hitters (Mauer, Morneau and Kubel). Look to Minny (-107) to take the rubber game of this series 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Arizona @ Colorado - For some reason, we're absolutely agonizing over this game. Perhaps it is the wildly inflated moneyline (Colorado -225). Perhaps it is because John Garland has pitched much better for the DBacks than his numbers indicate, especially as of late. Give me a minute here. OK. Thanks. Now back to reality. The Rockies are a very solid team, playing very good baseball of late and, most importantly, making us more consistent dough than any other ML team. Let's not get cute (we saw what that did to us last night). John Garland is John Garland and that is no compliment. Umbaldo Jiminez has a no-hitter in him sometime over the next season or two. Colorado is where that really crazy train that makes everything get really cold, really fast comes from. Nuff said. Rockies minus 1.5 runs (-110). They will win 6-2. LOCK IT UP
Early Game Moneylines
Here are the lines for today's three early games that we gave you last night:
Milwaukee (-107) to win
Yankees minus 1.5 runs (-150)
Cubs (-117) to win
Back in a bit with the rest of the day's action.
Milwaukee (-107) to win
Yankees minus 1.5 runs (-150)
Cubs (-117) to win
Back in a bit with the rest of the day's action.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Working Late to Bring You Hump Day's Early Winners
We had an all-time Locks record of 17 picks in play tonight. If it wasn't for some completely inept relief pitching (I'm looking at you Toronto, Chicago of the AL and Colorado), we would be basking in the glow of a wildly successful evening. Instead, we're working overtime to identify winners to get us all back on track. Tonight we went a total of 8-9 (including hitting the Two-For Tuesday set of picks, as well as both Spotlight on Sucking selections). Even though we came in one game below .500, we broke just about even in money for the evening (official BAT update coming in the morning).
Being on the West Coast, it's often difficult for us to have sufficient time to get confident selections dialed in on the weekday early games. To address this, the Locks will work to post picks for those early games the night before. There are three ML games that kick-off tomorrow prior to 11:00 in California. Below, you'll find our picks for those games. Unfortunately, we don't have access to any lines on these games at the moment. We'll provide them tomorrow. We'll also be back online on Wednesday afternoon to cover the rest of the MLB slate.
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh - I'm beginning to accept that I have an irrationally inflated opinion of the Brew Crew. They simply don't win as often as I would think that lineup should. That said, I'm not hopping off that train just yet. They get to face Pat Maholm tomorrow and he is someone that everyone on Milwaukee, other than Prince Fielder, hammers thoroughly. Unfortunately, the Brewers have to send Jeff Suppan to the mound in this game. Regardless, I still like the Brew Crew here. Take Milwaukee to win. Final score is 6-4. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ NYY - The Yankees will finish the sweep with an impressive throttling of the O's and Jason Berken. Baltimore will be happy to leave the Bronx on Wednesday afternoon. Take NY minus 1.5 runs as they prevail 8-3. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Philadelphia - We've been trying to predict the end of the Phils' winning streak for days and we're not stopping now. I don't see the Cubbies getting swept here. Jamie Moyer should be the stimulus Chicago's bats need. The Cubs hitters have loved to face Moyer throughout their careers so tomorrow should be no different. Big Z takes the mound for Chicago and helps cool off Philadelphia. Take the Cubs to win. Final score is 6-4. LOCK IT UP
That should get us started on the right track on Hump Day.
Kansas City's Gruesome Twosome: They're Fantastic
First off, the Locks would like to send a heartfelt thanks to all of you that have taken an interest in this site. Visits spiked to an all-time high yesterday (that is not saying much) and it is a very odd feeling to know that people might actually be reading this stuff, or worse, acting on our tips. Clearly, we would have liked to have experienced more success in last evening's games based on the interest of our audience. However, when you have a team pegged as a winner that can't hold a 10-run lead, that is tough to swallow. Thanks to the inept pitching of the Minnesota Twins, we fell just below .500 on the day (5-7). The BAT took at an $18 hit and we're now a bit further away from the Century Club target (+$79). Not to worry.
We're going to look at the significant increase in site traffic as the trigger for a transition to bigger and better things (i.e., more winning and much less losing). I can't help but think of myself as a revitalized Kenny Powers after he gets that long awaited call back up to the big show by the Rays. Somewhere in the distance, I can hear my very own Stevie Janowski screaming "TAMPA BITCHES." So, I'm once again forced to tap directly into the words of Dr. Powers to communicate the feelings that I am having at the moment:
"Remember me, Jefferson Davis Middle. I was your savior. I was your knight in shining armor. And each of you were the chinks upon my armor. Each of you were the chinks! You all were the chinks! Remember me, my chinks."
With that, let us embark on our own call up to the Big Leagues and establish a new standard for excellence at Absolute Locks. The analysis will be sharp. The observations insightful. The jokes (wait, there have been jokes?). And the picks; the picks will be CORRECT!
As of this morning, we stand at 94-85 (53%) with a BAT of +79. From here it is upward and onward. Let's get ready to rumble:
SPOTLIGHT ON SUCKING
In a new segment on the Locks, we'll from time to time take a look at a game or games that feature some ridiculously low levels of talent. Without much surprise, we must report that the inspiration for this inaugural Spotlight on Sucking is none other than the Kansas City Royals. An extra attaboy goes out to Mother Nature who made today's spectacle possible by dumping buckets of water down on Kauffman Stadium last evening. The result is a doubleheader between the LA Angels of Anaheim and the Royals that will feature potentially the worst 1-2 punch of starting pitchers a team has ever rolled out in a double-dip (that is unless the Yankees had an opportunity to trot out Marty Bystrom and Joe Cowley in a twin-bill back in 1984).
For today's opening game, the Royals hand the ball to Sidney Ponson. If you read yesterday's content you have a pretty good idea what we think of the Awful Aruban. Now imagine what Royal fans will be thinking when, after the inevitable trouncing they suffer in the first game, KC turns to Bruce Chen to salvage the split. For the sake of humor, here are the season lines for both Ponson and Chen
Ponson - 1-5, 7.27, 58 hits and 17 walks in 43.1 innings
Chen - 0-4, 6.86, 22 hits and 9 walks in 21 innings
How is it possible that 40% of one team's starting rotation is made up of these two guys. The Royals really have nobody down on the farm that can make some starts to see if they can cut it in the Bigs? Instead the Royals think it is wiser to trot out retreads that couldn't stick with any other teams? And what must the Indians feel like knowing that they are looking up at the Royals in the AL Central standings. Simply amazing on so many levels.
With these two pitchers, you don't need much analysis from the Locks to make some money. Simply take the Halos to cover 1.5 runs in both games (+125 in Game 1; +130 in Game 2). LOCK IT UP
Two-For Tuesday
Following a one-week layoff due to the All-Star game, we resume another regular feature of the Locks: Two-For Tuesday. This is the place where we select one game from the schedule and provide you with two winning bets (both the o/u and the winner). Today, we're going with a late West Coast tilt: Cincinnati @ LA.
It looks like the Dodgers lineup has awoken after taking the first few games of the second half off. Facing Homer Bailey, who can give up runs in bunches, should help them continue to build some offensive momentum. Let's not short change the Reds run producers either. These guys can hit a few long balls themselves. I'm not expecting them to account for most of the runs in this one, but they'll contribute enough to get us beyond the over (8.5). However, the Dodgers will score several more, allowing them to cover a 1.5 run spread. Take the Dodgers minus 1.5 (+110) and the over (-120) for your Two-For Tuesday special. LOCK IT UP
Here are the rest of Tuesday's matchups:
SF @ Atlanta - I love the value that you get with the Giants here (+175). They got knocked around last night and most good teams are able to bounce back from that. The further we get into this season, the more and more the Giants have the look of a good team. They have guys on their side with career success against Derek Lowe (Rowand, Molina, Wynn) and the sinkerballer hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire in Atlanta. The Giants trot out another one of their young arms (Ryan Sadowski) and we think the Bravos unfamiliarity with the kid might cause a few problems. Atlanta wasted too many runs last night. They'll wish they had a few of them tonight. Take the Giants (+175) in the substantial upset. They win 6-4. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ NY - The Yanks are rolling coming out of the All-Star Break. While they aren't blowing anyone out, they're doing the little things need to win, namely pitching. Maintaining that trend will be a bit more difficult tonight as they hand the ball to Sergio Mitre following a lengthy rehab from arm trouble. However, Rich Hill might be just the medicine the Yanks' offense needs to get back on track. I'm thinking the Bombers break out and start bombing tonight, giving Sergio more than enough room for error in his first game back. Take NY to cover 1.5 runs (+105) in a game they win 8-5. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Philadelphia - The Locks got burned with the Cubbies last night as the Phillies just continue to steamroll opponents. The question tonight is can Rich Harden slow that steamroller or will he get flattened. His road numbers are impressive, he's coming off a very solid outing and the Phillies big guys haven't had too much success against him in the past. However, Joe Blanton has been gaining steam himself recently and may well be the ace of this Philadelphia staff at the moment. Regardless, Blanton always struggles with the long ball and that is not a good thing at Citizens Bank Ballpark. We think Harden continues to build on recent successes and helps bring an end to this Phillie streak (it has to end sometime). Take the Cubbies (+102) to win here, 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh - This series is starting to heat up thanks to the growing bad blood between the teams. The benches cleared last night and Ryan Braun looked ready to take some frustration out on the Pirates. I think he does that exact thing tonight, but with his bat. Count on Prince to join in as well. Pittsburgh shouldn't have awoken these guys. No chance the Crew loses two in a row in the Steel City. Take Milwaukee (-128) to win 7-6. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Washington - You can't push your luck with the Pets. We got fortunate enough to steal a W with them last night and now it's time to get back on the other side of the fence. Especially since Absolute Locks All-Star Ollie Perez is looking to push his season ERA over 8 (sitting comfortably at 7.99 this morning). John Lannan can deal for the Nats and the Mets can't really hit. That is not a good combination, at least not for the guys from Flushing. For the first time all year, we're taking Washington minus 1.5 runs (+140). Final score is 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Seattle @ Detroit - The Tigers are very happy for two things today. To not be playing the Yankees and to have Ricky Porcello back on the hill. The fact that they're facing a lefty hybrid starter/reliever isn't bad news either. Look for the Tiger bats to get back to cranking in the Motor City and Porcello to shut down the M's like he did earlier this season. I like this one a lot. Take the Tigers minus 1.5 runs (+130). Detroit Rock City wins 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ Toronto - The Locks got burned by Cliff Lee his last time out but we'll play with fire once again. The Jays do have some guys that hit Mr. Lee fairly well. Plus, we're expecting that the Indians pen will be heard from in this one. Cleveland also doesn't hit lefties terribly well and Brett Cecil has already had his way with this team once this season. Plus we get to take advantage of a misguided moneyline since Clifford is on the mound. Take the Jays (-105) to prevail at home, 5-2. LOCK IT UP
Boston @ Texas - I keep waiting for the Red Sox offense to get going. It continues not to happen. Papi is back to hitting and now nobody else is. Christ, they got the run that would have won us the over last night thrown out at the plate when a geriatric looking Mike Lowell barely had enough gas to get down the line. Now, tonight seems as good a night as any for this offense to erupt. For starters, they are now tied for 1st place in the AL East and this team always responds to that sort of challenge. Second, their career numbers against Tommy Hunter (though a very small sample size) are very good (5-11 with a HR, combined). Beckett will not have to be perfect tonight to get the Sox this victory. We'll take the Sox minus 1.5 runs (-110) to topple the Rangers, 8-3. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Houston - Another day and the Astros continue to fool the Absolute Locks. Now they start Absolute Locks nemesis Wandy Rodriguez and we're really backed into a corner. Do we finally back off our attack on Magic Wandy and back him or stick to our guns? There is no doubt that the Cardinals are the better team. However, they are not inspiring much confidence with Todd Wellemeyer on the mound. Strictly based on the moneyline, we're going to make one more run at tearing down the Astros and Rodriguez. We like the Cards (+133) to somehow pull this one out. They'll win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Chicago - We're sticking with the South Siders in this series. Tampa doesn't beat lefties as much as they should (15-19) and we've elected Paul Konerko to a cabinet position in our top-5 favorite non-Yankees. This will be another down to the wire contest but we think that the Sox pull it out (maybe even in walk-off fashion). Take Chicago (+103) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Arizona @ Colorado - Same ole story with the Rocks at home against the DBacks. Colorado will score many runs; Arizona, not so much. Aaron Cook will redeem himself from an abysmal start against the Diamondbacks earlier this year. The Rockies have been making us dough and keeping our BAT respectable. Now is not the time to abandon ship. Colorado minus 1.5 runs (+140) in a 8-4 win. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ San Diego - If the o/u in this game wasn't at a minuscule 7 runs, we'd be all over the under. We're not sure which one of these teams will figure at where home plate is located or how often that will happen. We're almost tempted not to pick this game at all but how much fun would that be? I've gone back and forth a bunch of times on this one and have settled on San Diego. This is one of the few times we'll endorse the Padres (-105). They'll squeak out a win in this snoozefest, 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Oakland - How do the Twins bounce back from last night? If I was Ron Gardenhire, I would have taken them into the clubhouse after that game and given them the: "You Just Got Beat By A Bunch of God Damn Nerds" speech from Revenge of the Nerds. It was Minnesota's relievers' limp-wristed throwing style that really did them in last night. Let's hope they don't have any more Lamars lurking in the pen. Actually, let's hope they do because we're gonna get on the OakTown train tonight. The Twins don't win away from home and they don't beat lefties. It's Dallas Braden's night to shine. Take the A's to keep the momentum rolling. Oakland (-132) wins tonight, 6-3 LOCK IT UP.
We're going to look at the significant increase in site traffic as the trigger for a transition to bigger and better things (i.e., more winning and much less losing). I can't help but think of myself as a revitalized Kenny Powers after he gets that long awaited call back up to the big show by the Rays. Somewhere in the distance, I can hear my very own Stevie Janowski screaming "TAMPA BITCHES." So, I'm once again forced to tap directly into the words of Dr. Powers to communicate the feelings that I am having at the moment:
"Remember me, Jefferson Davis Middle. I was your savior. I was your knight in shining armor. And each of you were the chinks upon my armor. Each of you were the chinks! You all were the chinks! Remember me, my chinks."
With that, let us embark on our own call up to the Big Leagues and establish a new standard for excellence at Absolute Locks. The analysis will be sharp. The observations insightful. The jokes (wait, there have been jokes?). And the picks; the picks will be CORRECT!
As of this morning, we stand at 94-85 (53%) with a BAT of +79. From here it is upward and onward. Let's get ready to rumble:
SPOTLIGHT ON SUCKING
In a new segment on the Locks, we'll from time to time take a look at a game or games that feature some ridiculously low levels of talent. Without much surprise, we must report that the inspiration for this inaugural Spotlight on Sucking is none other than the Kansas City Royals. An extra attaboy goes out to Mother Nature who made today's spectacle possible by dumping buckets of water down on Kauffman Stadium last evening. The result is a doubleheader between the LA Angels of Anaheim and the Royals that will feature potentially the worst 1-2 punch of starting pitchers a team has ever rolled out in a double-dip (that is unless the Yankees had an opportunity to trot out Marty Bystrom and Joe Cowley in a twin-bill back in 1984).
For today's opening game, the Royals hand the ball to Sidney Ponson. If you read yesterday's content you have a pretty good idea what we think of the Awful Aruban. Now imagine what Royal fans will be thinking when, after the inevitable trouncing they suffer in the first game, KC turns to Bruce Chen to salvage the split. For the sake of humor, here are the season lines for both Ponson and Chen
Ponson - 1-5, 7.27, 58 hits and 17 walks in 43.1 innings
Chen - 0-4, 6.86, 22 hits and 9 walks in 21 innings
How is it possible that 40% of one team's starting rotation is made up of these two guys. The Royals really have nobody down on the farm that can make some starts to see if they can cut it in the Bigs? Instead the Royals think it is wiser to trot out retreads that couldn't stick with any other teams? And what must the Indians feel like knowing that they are looking up at the Royals in the AL Central standings. Simply amazing on so many levels.
With these two pitchers, you don't need much analysis from the Locks to make some money. Simply take the Halos to cover 1.5 runs in both games (+125 in Game 1; +130 in Game 2). LOCK IT UP
Two-For Tuesday
Following a one-week layoff due to the All-Star game, we resume another regular feature of the Locks: Two-For Tuesday. This is the place where we select one game from the schedule and provide you with two winning bets (both the o/u and the winner). Today, we're going with a late West Coast tilt: Cincinnati @ LA.
It looks like the Dodgers lineup has awoken after taking the first few games of the second half off. Facing Homer Bailey, who can give up runs in bunches, should help them continue to build some offensive momentum. Let's not short change the Reds run producers either. These guys can hit a few long balls themselves. I'm not expecting them to account for most of the runs in this one, but they'll contribute enough to get us beyond the over (8.5). However, the Dodgers will score several more, allowing them to cover a 1.5 run spread. Take the Dodgers minus 1.5 (+110) and the over (-120) for your Two-For Tuesday special. LOCK IT UP
Here are the rest of Tuesday's matchups:
SF @ Atlanta - I love the value that you get with the Giants here (+175). They got knocked around last night and most good teams are able to bounce back from that. The further we get into this season, the more and more the Giants have the look of a good team. They have guys on their side with career success against Derek Lowe (Rowand, Molina, Wynn) and the sinkerballer hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire in Atlanta. The Giants trot out another one of their young arms (Ryan Sadowski) and we think the Bravos unfamiliarity with the kid might cause a few problems. Atlanta wasted too many runs last night. They'll wish they had a few of them tonight. Take the Giants (+175) in the substantial upset. They win 6-4. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ NY - The Yanks are rolling coming out of the All-Star Break. While they aren't blowing anyone out, they're doing the little things need to win, namely pitching. Maintaining that trend will be a bit more difficult tonight as they hand the ball to Sergio Mitre following a lengthy rehab from arm trouble. However, Rich Hill might be just the medicine the Yanks' offense needs to get back on track. I'm thinking the Bombers break out and start bombing tonight, giving Sergio more than enough room for error in his first game back. Take NY to cover 1.5 runs (+105) in a game they win 8-5. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Philadelphia - The Locks got burned with the Cubbies last night as the Phillies just continue to steamroll opponents. The question tonight is can Rich Harden slow that steamroller or will he get flattened. His road numbers are impressive, he's coming off a very solid outing and the Phillies big guys haven't had too much success against him in the past. However, Joe Blanton has been gaining steam himself recently and may well be the ace of this Philadelphia staff at the moment. Regardless, Blanton always struggles with the long ball and that is not a good thing at Citizens Bank Ballpark. We think Harden continues to build on recent successes and helps bring an end to this Phillie streak (it has to end sometime). Take the Cubbies (+102) to win here, 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh - This series is starting to heat up thanks to the growing bad blood between the teams. The benches cleared last night and Ryan Braun looked ready to take some frustration out on the Pirates. I think he does that exact thing tonight, but with his bat. Count on Prince to join in as well. Pittsburgh shouldn't have awoken these guys. No chance the Crew loses two in a row in the Steel City. Take Milwaukee (-128) to win 7-6. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Washington - You can't push your luck with the Pets. We got fortunate enough to steal a W with them last night and now it's time to get back on the other side of the fence. Especially since Absolute Locks All-Star Ollie Perez is looking to push his season ERA over 8 (sitting comfortably at 7.99 this morning). John Lannan can deal for the Nats and the Mets can't really hit. That is not a good combination, at least not for the guys from Flushing. For the first time all year, we're taking Washington minus 1.5 runs (+140). Final score is 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Seattle @ Detroit - The Tigers are very happy for two things today. To not be playing the Yankees and to have Ricky Porcello back on the hill. The fact that they're facing a lefty hybrid starter/reliever isn't bad news either. Look for the Tiger bats to get back to cranking in the Motor City and Porcello to shut down the M's like he did earlier this season. I like this one a lot. Take the Tigers minus 1.5 runs (+130). Detroit Rock City wins 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Cleveland @ Toronto - The Locks got burned by Cliff Lee his last time out but we'll play with fire once again. The Jays do have some guys that hit Mr. Lee fairly well. Plus, we're expecting that the Indians pen will be heard from in this one. Cleveland also doesn't hit lefties terribly well and Brett Cecil has already had his way with this team once this season. Plus we get to take advantage of a misguided moneyline since Clifford is on the mound. Take the Jays (-105) to prevail at home, 5-2. LOCK IT UP
Boston @ Texas - I keep waiting for the Red Sox offense to get going. It continues not to happen. Papi is back to hitting and now nobody else is. Christ, they got the run that would have won us the over last night thrown out at the plate when a geriatric looking Mike Lowell barely had enough gas to get down the line. Now, tonight seems as good a night as any for this offense to erupt. For starters, they are now tied for 1st place in the AL East and this team always responds to that sort of challenge. Second, their career numbers against Tommy Hunter (though a very small sample size) are very good (5-11 with a HR, combined). Beckett will not have to be perfect tonight to get the Sox this victory. We'll take the Sox minus 1.5 runs (-110) to topple the Rangers, 8-3. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Houston - Another day and the Astros continue to fool the Absolute Locks. Now they start Absolute Locks nemesis Wandy Rodriguez and we're really backed into a corner. Do we finally back off our attack on Magic Wandy and back him or stick to our guns? There is no doubt that the Cardinals are the better team. However, they are not inspiring much confidence with Todd Wellemeyer on the mound. Strictly based on the moneyline, we're going to make one more run at tearing down the Astros and Rodriguez. We like the Cards (+133) to somehow pull this one out. They'll win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Chicago - We're sticking with the South Siders in this series. Tampa doesn't beat lefties as much as they should (15-19) and we've elected Paul Konerko to a cabinet position in our top-5 favorite non-Yankees. This will be another down to the wire contest but we think that the Sox pull it out (maybe even in walk-off fashion). Take Chicago (+103) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Arizona @ Colorado - Same ole story with the Rocks at home against the DBacks. Colorado will score many runs; Arizona, not so much. Aaron Cook will redeem himself from an abysmal start against the Diamondbacks earlier this year. The Rockies have been making us dough and keeping our BAT respectable. Now is not the time to abandon ship. Colorado minus 1.5 runs (+140) in a 8-4 win. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ San Diego - If the o/u in this game wasn't at a minuscule 7 runs, we'd be all over the under. We're not sure which one of these teams will figure at where home plate is located or how often that will happen. We're almost tempted not to pick this game at all but how much fun would that be? I've gone back and forth a bunch of times on this one and have settled on San Diego. This is one of the few times we'll endorse the Padres (-105). They'll squeak out a win in this snoozefest, 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Oakland - How do the Twins bounce back from last night? If I was Ron Gardenhire, I would have taken them into the clubhouse after that game and given them the: "You Just Got Beat By A Bunch of God Damn Nerds" speech from Revenge of the Nerds. It was Minnesota's relievers' limp-wristed throwing style that really did them in last night. Let's hope they don't have any more Lamars lurking in the pen. Actually, let's hope they do because we're gonna get on the OakTown train tonight. The Twins don't win away from home and they don't beat lefties. It's Dallas Braden's night to shine. Take the A's to keep the momentum rolling. Oakland (-132) wins tonight, 6-3 LOCK IT UP.
THAT'S 16 PICKS. WE'VE GOT AT LEAST 11 WINNERS IN THERE, IF NOT MORE. GO MONEY!
Monday, July 20, 2009
Thank God It's Monday
The weekend (particularly Friday and Saturday) proved to be a bit of a challenge for the Locks. Not sure what can be blamed for that: wandering attention in the absence of a mind-numbing workday, the need to turn around so many picks so quickly with early Saturday games, etc., etc. Who knows and more importantly, who cares?
Results are the only thing we're measured by here at the Locks and a 12-15 Friday and Saturday that eats $42 into the BAT does not pass as results. So we're certainly glad that we had Sunday to salvage our weekend. Yesterday's picks were a resounding success. 10-4 and a +$61 for Ye 'Ole BAT helps you get out of bed on a Monday. All told, we pull into the new week at 89-78 with an all-time high BAT of +$97. How bout we go over the century mark today?
Before we get into the picks we must mourn Jim Furyk's final round 76 yesterday when the 68 that we begged for would have given him a one-stroke win. Instead, we had two picks miss the cut by a long margin and a third melt on the final day to drop from a tie for 6th into a tie for 34th. Thankfully there are only four golf majors a year for us to embarrass ourselves on.
Additionally, this Friday represents the deadline for submitting entries into the NFL O/U Challenge. Remember, pick 3 teams to go under Vegas' win totals and 3 teams to go over (Find lines here). Send them to me at tbrons@vidallc.com and we'll spend the NFL season tracking the picks.
SF Giants @ Atlanta - Wow, the Bravos are huge favorites in this game (-175). I guess there is no Vegas honeymoon for Jonathan Sanchez following his no-hitter. The books seem much more enamored with the young Thomas Hanson. Can't say I disagree. He hasn't pitched since the 9th and should come out geared up for this one. That said, I think both of these offenses are exceedingly lame. The Giants looked woeful in Pittsburgh this weekend and that's just not gonna get it done for a potential postseason team. The ATL handled the Mets this weekend but that's like beating up your arthritis-riddled great-grandmother. These teams will struggle to score tonight and that's why we're picking the under (8.5) @ -120. Someone wins this one 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ NYY - I'm a terrified Yankee fan heading into this game. Let's make one thing very clear here: While I am one of Andy Pettite's top-5 all-time fans, he is either secretly hurt or simply at the end of the road. He's been a shell of himself the last few weeks. I'd still trust him in October more than 90% of the other ML starters but this has been tough to watch. Then, the Oriole offense that I rave about incessantly comes to town with a lineup full of guys that hit Andy pretty well. Factor in a Baltimore pitcher the Yanks have never faced and this one doesn't lean in the Bombers' favor. Especially not as a -210 favorite. I won't pick against the Yanks to win, but I will take the O's and 1.5 runs (-110) and see what happens. NY pulls this one out late against the Baltimore bullpen, 7-6. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Philadelphia - This is the NL series of the early part of the week. The Cubbies are starting to roll (no coincidence now that Aramis is back in the lineup). Ted Lilly is such an overlooked solid starter it is borderline criminal. He is disturbingly consistent and sometimes spectacular. I hate to pick against the Phillies, especially when they are facing lefties, but I have a feeling here. It also doesn't hurt that the Phils are trotting Rodrigo Lopez out to the mound. That might have been a good thing circa 2004 in Baltimore but not tonight. I'll take the South Siders to end Philadelphia's 8 game winning streak tonight. Cubs (-104) win 6-4. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh - Here's a rule: Anytime you can get -110 or better on a Pirate opponent, take it (unless its the Mets or Nats). I do like Ross Ohlendorf as a guy that can keep his team in the game and I don't necessarily have that same confidence in Mike Burns (who?). However, from an investment standpoint, -110 behind the BrewCrew is much wiser than -110 behind the Bucs. It's just that simple. Take Milwaukee (-110) to win here, 5-3. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Washington - There are so many things that can be said about this series. None of them would be misconstrued as flattering. As if this battle, a term we'll use loosely, needed any more incompetence, Washington trots out a 26-year old to make his ML debut. And in a sign of just how far the Pets have fallen, the Nats are a -130 favorite. How can Vegas even handicap this game? Get ready, because I am about to write stuff that could get me committed to an asylum. I like the Mets here. Let me explain. I'll always take the known vs. the unknown. What you don't know is how this J.D. Martin kid is going to handle the highest level of baseball (that's the first time this year that term has been assigned to the Mets). There is a reason that J.D. Martin hasn't sniffed the big leagues in his 9-year career. What you do know is how "And He Shall Be" Livan Hernandez pitches against the Nats (2-0, 0.56 this year). This data is why I really can't believe Vegas blew this moneyline so badly. Hell, they did it in our advantage. Take the Pets (+110) for perhaps the last time this entire season. NY wins a game that is sure to be the lead story on Baseball Tonight, 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Boston @ Texas - Still not buying the John Smoltz experiment one bit. Not at all. He won't even be in this rotation come the end of August. On the other side of the diamond, Kevin Millwood has been scuffling of late, watching his ERA climb to 3.46 from 2.62 in just four starts. However, he did throw 7 innings of shutout ball against Beantown earlier this year even though the Boston batters' career numbers against him are impressive. This is a tough one to call. I'm expecting the balls to be flying through what promises to be a warm Texas night. With that in mind, we'll back the over (9.5) at EVEN money. There should be plenty of runs in this one. Think something like 8-6. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Houston - Sometimes there are major disconnects in the way people think about things. For instance, some people think that Jennifer Aniston is really hot. Incorrect. I seem to have that same problem with the way I think about the Houston Astros. I keep thinking they are a terrible team that should be pushing a 100-loss season. Then I check the standings and they sit at a very respectable 46-46 and only 4 games out of first place in the NL Central. How is that possible when they are trotting out Brian Moehler every fifth day? With the first place Cardinals in town for three games, we're about to learn a whole lot about the Stros. My guess is that we learn that there isn't as big a disconnect between the way I think of them and the way they are as their record indicates today. The Cards roll in the series opener tonight. Take them to win (-110) behind Kyle Loshe who shut Houston out earlier this year. Final score of 6-3. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Kansas City - Today is a great, great day. Little did I know when I woke up today that Sidney Ponson would be back in my life. There is nothing like a heart-warming surprise. Sidney, you've been gone too long. I don't care that I don't know much, if anything, about Sean O'Sullivan. What I do know is that he isn't Sidney Ponson. I'm surprised Vegas is even taking action on this game. I wish I could get a line on the Angels minus 5 runs because I would bet it. Alas, we can only take LAA minus 1.5 (+135) and that is what we'll do. Halos roll to a 11-5 victory. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Chicago - This is a tough one to call as I really like both of these teams. Vegas thinks so too as both teams are -110 in this game. I'll take the home team here and hope we see the Mitch Williams version of David Price as opposed to the Sandy Koufax version of David Price. Gavin Floyd is steady, so the ChiSox will be in this game regardless. Look for a big Paul Konerko hit to swing the result in Chicago's favor. Take the Sox (-110) to win late, 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Running out of time before early games start so will go lightning round the rest of the way:
Arizona @ Colorado - Love Rockies; hate Dbacks (unless Harren is pitching). Rockies roll at home. Take them minus 1.5 runs at (+135). They win 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ San Diego - What a pitching match-up. Ladies and gentlemen: Rick VandenHurk vs. Tim Stauffer. Glad this is a lightning round cause I got nothing for you here. Marlins are a better team so go that way. Florida (-110) wins 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Oakland - Too easy to pick against the home-town A's. Oakland loses again. Twins (-124) win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Cincinnati @ LA - Dodgers are off a bit since the All-Star break. Shouldn't be a -150 favorite in Jason Schmidt's first start back in a long, long time. I'll go out on a limb and take the Reds (+130) to win here. Final score is 6-4. LOCK IT UP
Results are the only thing we're measured by here at the Locks and a 12-15 Friday and Saturday that eats $42 into the BAT does not pass as results. So we're certainly glad that we had Sunday to salvage our weekend. Yesterday's picks were a resounding success. 10-4 and a +$61 for Ye 'Ole BAT helps you get out of bed on a Monday. All told, we pull into the new week at 89-78 with an all-time high BAT of +$97. How bout we go over the century mark today?
Before we get into the picks we must mourn Jim Furyk's final round 76 yesterday when the 68 that we begged for would have given him a one-stroke win. Instead, we had two picks miss the cut by a long margin and a third melt on the final day to drop from a tie for 6th into a tie for 34th. Thankfully there are only four golf majors a year for us to embarrass ourselves on.
Additionally, this Friday represents the deadline for submitting entries into the NFL O/U Challenge. Remember, pick 3 teams to go under Vegas' win totals and 3 teams to go over (Find lines here). Send them to me at tbrons@vidallc.com and we'll spend the NFL season tracking the picks.
SF Giants @ Atlanta - Wow, the Bravos are huge favorites in this game (-175). I guess there is no Vegas honeymoon for Jonathan Sanchez following his no-hitter. The books seem much more enamored with the young Thomas Hanson. Can't say I disagree. He hasn't pitched since the 9th and should come out geared up for this one. That said, I think both of these offenses are exceedingly lame. The Giants looked woeful in Pittsburgh this weekend and that's just not gonna get it done for a potential postseason team. The ATL handled the Mets this weekend but that's like beating up your arthritis-riddled great-grandmother. These teams will struggle to score tonight and that's why we're picking the under (8.5) @ -120. Someone wins this one 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ NYY - I'm a terrified Yankee fan heading into this game. Let's make one thing very clear here: While I am one of Andy Pettite's top-5 all-time fans, he is either secretly hurt or simply at the end of the road. He's been a shell of himself the last few weeks. I'd still trust him in October more than 90% of the other ML starters but this has been tough to watch. Then, the Oriole offense that I rave about incessantly comes to town with a lineup full of guys that hit Andy pretty well. Factor in a Baltimore pitcher the Yanks have never faced and this one doesn't lean in the Bombers' favor. Especially not as a -210 favorite. I won't pick against the Yanks to win, but I will take the O's and 1.5 runs (-110) and see what happens. NY pulls this one out late against the Baltimore bullpen, 7-6. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Philadelphia - This is the NL series of the early part of the week. The Cubbies are starting to roll (no coincidence now that Aramis is back in the lineup). Ted Lilly is such an overlooked solid starter it is borderline criminal. He is disturbingly consistent and sometimes spectacular. I hate to pick against the Phillies, especially when they are facing lefties, but I have a feeling here. It also doesn't hurt that the Phils are trotting Rodrigo Lopez out to the mound. That might have been a good thing circa 2004 in Baltimore but not tonight. I'll take the South Siders to end Philadelphia's 8 game winning streak tonight. Cubs (-104) win 6-4. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh - Here's a rule: Anytime you can get -110 or better on a Pirate opponent, take it (unless its the Mets or Nats). I do like Ross Ohlendorf as a guy that can keep his team in the game and I don't necessarily have that same confidence in Mike Burns (who?). However, from an investment standpoint, -110 behind the BrewCrew is much wiser than -110 behind the Bucs. It's just that simple. Take Milwaukee (-110) to win here, 5-3. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Washington - There are so many things that can be said about this series. None of them would be misconstrued as flattering. As if this battle, a term we'll use loosely, needed any more incompetence, Washington trots out a 26-year old to make his ML debut. And in a sign of just how far the Pets have fallen, the Nats are a -130 favorite. How can Vegas even handicap this game? Get ready, because I am about to write stuff that could get me committed to an asylum. I like the Mets here. Let me explain. I'll always take the known vs. the unknown. What you don't know is how this J.D. Martin kid is going to handle the highest level of baseball (that's the first time this year that term has been assigned to the Mets). There is a reason that J.D. Martin hasn't sniffed the big leagues in his 9-year career. What you do know is how "And He Shall Be" Livan Hernandez pitches against the Nats (2-0, 0.56 this year). This data is why I really can't believe Vegas blew this moneyline so badly. Hell, they did it in our advantage. Take the Pets (+110) for perhaps the last time this entire season. NY wins a game that is sure to be the lead story on Baseball Tonight, 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Boston @ Texas - Still not buying the John Smoltz experiment one bit. Not at all. He won't even be in this rotation come the end of August. On the other side of the diamond, Kevin Millwood has been scuffling of late, watching his ERA climb to 3.46 from 2.62 in just four starts. However, he did throw 7 innings of shutout ball against Beantown earlier this year even though the Boston batters' career numbers against him are impressive. This is a tough one to call. I'm expecting the balls to be flying through what promises to be a warm Texas night. With that in mind, we'll back the over (9.5) at EVEN money. There should be plenty of runs in this one. Think something like 8-6. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Houston - Sometimes there are major disconnects in the way people think about things. For instance, some people think that Jennifer Aniston is really hot. Incorrect. I seem to have that same problem with the way I think about the Houston Astros. I keep thinking they are a terrible team that should be pushing a 100-loss season. Then I check the standings and they sit at a very respectable 46-46 and only 4 games out of first place in the NL Central. How is that possible when they are trotting out Brian Moehler every fifth day? With the first place Cardinals in town for three games, we're about to learn a whole lot about the Stros. My guess is that we learn that there isn't as big a disconnect between the way I think of them and the way they are as their record indicates today. The Cards roll in the series opener tonight. Take them to win (-110) behind Kyle Loshe who shut Houston out earlier this year. Final score of 6-3. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Kansas City - Today is a great, great day. Little did I know when I woke up today that Sidney Ponson would be back in my life. There is nothing like a heart-warming surprise. Sidney, you've been gone too long. I don't care that I don't know much, if anything, about Sean O'Sullivan. What I do know is that he isn't Sidney Ponson. I'm surprised Vegas is even taking action on this game. I wish I could get a line on the Angels minus 5 runs because I would bet it. Alas, we can only take LAA minus 1.5 (+135) and that is what we'll do. Halos roll to a 11-5 victory. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Chicago - This is a tough one to call as I really like both of these teams. Vegas thinks so too as both teams are -110 in this game. I'll take the home team here and hope we see the Mitch Williams version of David Price as opposed to the Sandy Koufax version of David Price. Gavin Floyd is steady, so the ChiSox will be in this game regardless. Look for a big Paul Konerko hit to swing the result in Chicago's favor. Take the Sox (-110) to win late, 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Running out of time before early games start so will go lightning round the rest of the way:
Arizona @ Colorado - Love Rockies; hate Dbacks (unless Harren is pitching). Rockies roll at home. Take them minus 1.5 runs at (+135). They win 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ San Diego - What a pitching match-up. Ladies and gentlemen: Rick VandenHurk vs. Tim Stauffer. Glad this is a lightning round cause I got nothing for you here. Marlins are a better team so go that way. Florida (-110) wins 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Oakland - Too easy to pick against the home-town A's. Oakland loses again. Twins (-124) win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Cincinnati @ LA - Dodgers are off a bit since the All-Star break. Shouldn't be a -150 favorite in Jason Schmidt's first start back in a long, long time. I'll go out on a limb and take the Reds (+130) to win here. Final score is 6-4. LOCK IT UP
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Sunday Lightning Round - Redemption Time
Been a bumpy weekend so far. Few games still at play tonight but we're pulling for the Rockies to throw up 2 more runs for the cover and the Dodgers to hold on. If those come in, we'll break even on a day that started very poorly.
We're hitting the links first thing in the morning so posting another lightning round for Sunday's games tonight. Hope you are not losing the faith as the Locks has a big day in here somewhere after scuffling for the past few.
In other sports news, the Locks is looking for Jimmy Furyk to make his move tomorrow and take home the Claret Jug. He's sitting three shots off the lead and methinks a 68 tomorrow will be enough for the win. We'll see.
Here are your Sunday MLB picks:
Seattle minus 1.5 runs (+135)
Milwaukee (-119)
Boston/Toronto - Under 8 (-130)
Phillies (-125)
Cubs (-127)
SF/Pittsburgh - Under 7.5 (-125)
Rockies minus 1.5 runs (+110)
Dodgers minus 1.5 runs (+120)
Braves minus 1.5 runs (-115)
Baltimore (+127)
Tampa Bay/KC Under 8.5 (+110)
Rangers (+109)
Angels minus 1.5 runs (+130)
Yankees minus 1.5 runs (+140)
NO ACTION ON CARDS GAME AS LINES ARE NOT AVAILABLE YET
We're hitting the links first thing in the morning so posting another lightning round for Sunday's games tonight. Hope you are not losing the faith as the Locks has a big day in here somewhere after scuffling for the past few.
In other sports news, the Locks is looking for Jimmy Furyk to make his move tomorrow and take home the Claret Jug. He's sitting three shots off the lead and methinks a 68 tomorrow will be enough for the win. We'll see.
Here are your Sunday MLB picks:
Seattle minus 1.5 runs (+135)
Milwaukee (-119)
Boston/Toronto - Under 8 (-130)
Phillies (-125)
Cubs (-127)
SF/Pittsburgh - Under 7.5 (-125)
Rockies minus 1.5 runs (+110)
Dodgers minus 1.5 runs (+120)
Braves minus 1.5 runs (-115)
Baltimore (+127)
Tampa Bay/KC Under 8.5 (+110)
Rangers (+109)
Angels minus 1.5 runs (+130)
Yankees minus 1.5 runs (+140)
NO ACTION ON CARDS GAME AS LINES ARE NOT AVAILABLE YET
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