Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Kansas City's Gruesome Twosome: They're Fantastic

First off, the Locks would like to send a heartfelt thanks to all of you that have taken an interest in this site. Visits spiked to an all-time high yesterday (that is not saying much) and it is a very odd feeling to know that people might actually be reading this stuff, or worse, acting on our tips. Clearly, we would have liked to have experienced more success in last evening's games based on the interest of our audience. However, when you have a team pegged as a winner that can't hold a 10-run lead, that is tough to swallow. Thanks to the inept pitching of the Minnesota Twins, we fell just below .500 on the day (5-7). The BAT took at an $18 hit and we're now a bit further away from the Century Club target (+$79). Not to worry.

We're going to look at the significant increase in site traffic as the trigger for a transition to bigger and better things (i.e., more winning and much less losing). I can't help but think of myself as a revitalized Kenny Powers after he gets that long awaited call back up to the big show by the Rays. Somewhere in the distance, I can hear my very own Stevie Janowski screaming "TAMPA BITCHES." So, I'm once again forced to tap directly into the words of Dr. Powers to communicate the feelings that I am having at the moment:

"Remember me, Jefferson Davis Middle. I was your savior. I was your knight in shining armor. And each of you were the chinks upon my armor. Each of you were the chinks! You all were the chinks! Remember me, my chinks."

With that, let us embark on our own call up to the Big Leagues and establish a new standard for excellence at Absolute Locks. The analysis will be sharp. The observations insightful. The jokes (wait, there have been jokes?). And the picks; the picks will be CORRECT!

As of this morning, we stand at 94-85 (53%) with a BAT of +79. From here it is upward and onward. Let's get ready to rumble:

SPOTLIGHT ON SUCKING


In a new segment on the Locks, we'll from time to time take a look at a game or games that feature some ridiculously low levels of talent. Without much surprise, we must report that the inspiration for this inaugural Spotlight on Sucking is none other than the Kansas City Royals. An extra attaboy goes out to Mother Nature who made today's spectacle possible by dumping buckets of water down on Kauffman Stadium last evening. The result is a doubleheader between the LA Angels of Anaheim and the Royals that will feature potentially the worst 1-2 punch of starting pitchers a team has ever rolled out in a double-dip (that is unless the Yankees had an opportunity to trot out Marty Bystrom and Joe Cowley in a twin-bill back in 1984).

For today's opening game, the Royals hand the ball to Sidney Ponson. If you read yesterday's content you have a pretty good idea what we think of the Awful Aruban. Now imagine what Royal fans will be thinking when, after the inevitable trouncing they suffer in the first game, KC turns to Bruce Chen to salvage the split. For the sake of humor, here are the season lines for both Ponson and Chen

Ponson - 1-5, 7.27, 58 hits and 17 walks in 43.1 innings
Chen - 0-4, 6.86, 22 hits and 9 walks in 21 innings

How is it possible that 40% of one team's starting rotation is made up of these two guys. The Royals really have nobody down on the farm that can make some starts to see if they can cut it in the Bigs? Instead the Royals think it is wiser to trot out retreads that couldn't stick with any other teams? And what must the Indians feel like knowing that they are looking up at the Royals in the AL Central standings. Simply amazing on so many levels.

With these two pitchers, you don't need much analysis from the Locks to make some money. Simply take the Halos to cover 1.5 runs in both games (+125 in Game 1; +130 in Game 2). LOCK IT UP

Two-For Tuesday

Following a one-week layoff due to the All-Star game, we resume another regular feature of the Locks: Two-For Tuesday. This is the place where we select one game from the schedule and provide you with two winning bets (both the o/u and the winner). Today, we're going with a late West Coast tilt: Cincinnati @ LA.

It looks like the Dodgers lineup has awoken after taking the first few games of the second half off. Facing Homer Bailey, who can give up runs in bunches, should help them continue to build some offensive momentum. Let's not short change the Reds run producers either. These guys can hit a few long balls themselves. I'm not expecting them to account for most of the runs in this one, but they'll contribute enough to get us beyond the over (8.5). However, the Dodgers will score several more, allowing them to cover a 1.5 run spread. Take the Dodgers minus 1.5 (+110) and the over (-120) for your Two-For Tuesday special. LOCK IT UP

Here are the rest of Tuesday's matchups:

SF @ Atlanta - I love the value that you get with the Giants here (+175). They got knocked around last night and most good teams are able to bounce back from that. The further we get into this season, the more and more the Giants have the look of a good team. They have guys on their side with career success against Derek Lowe (Rowand, Molina, Wynn) and the sinkerballer hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire in Atlanta. The Giants trot out another one of their young arms (Ryan Sadowski) and we think the Bravos unfamiliarity with the kid might cause a few problems. Atlanta wasted too many runs last night. They'll wish they had a few of them tonight. Take the Giants (+175) in the substantial upset. They win 6-4. LOCK IT UP

Baltimore @ NY - The Yanks are rolling coming out of the All-Star Break. While they aren't blowing anyone out, they're doing the little things need to win, namely pitching. Maintaining that trend will be a bit more difficult tonight as they hand the ball to Sergio Mitre following a lengthy rehab from arm trouble. However, Rich Hill might be just the medicine the Yanks' offense needs to get back on track. I'm thinking the Bombers break out and start bombing tonight, giving Sergio more than enough room for error in his first game back. Take NY to cover 1.5 runs (+105) in a game they win 8-5. LOCK IT UP

Chicago @ Philadelphia - The Locks got burned with the Cubbies last night as the Phillies just continue to steamroll opponents. The question tonight is can Rich Harden slow that steamroller or will he get flattened. His road numbers are impressive, he's coming off a very solid outing and the Phillies big guys haven't had too much success against him in the past. However, Joe Blanton has been gaining steam himself recently and may well be the ace of this Philadelphia staff at the moment. Regardless, Blanton always struggles with the long ball and that is not a good thing at Citizens Bank Ballpark. We think Harden continues to build on recent successes and helps bring an end to this Phillie streak (it has to end sometime). Take the Cubbies (+102) to win here, 6-3. LOCK IT UP

Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh - This series is starting to heat up thanks to the growing bad blood between the teams. The benches cleared last night and Ryan Braun looked ready to take some frustration out on the Pirates. I think he does that exact thing tonight, but with his bat. Count on Prince to join in as well. Pittsburgh shouldn't have awoken these guys. No chance the Crew loses two in a row in the Steel City. Take Milwaukee (-128) to win 7-6. LOCK IT UP

NYM @ Washington - You can't push your luck with the Pets. We got fortunate enough to steal a W with them last night and now it's time to get back on the other side of the fence. Especially since Absolute Locks All-Star Ollie Perez is looking to push his season ERA over 8 (sitting comfortably at 7.99 this morning). John Lannan can deal for the Nats and the Mets can't really hit. That is not a good combination, at least not for the guys from Flushing. For the first time all year, we're taking Washington minus 1.5 runs (+140). Final score is 6-3. LOCK IT UP

Seattle @ Detroit - The Tigers are very happy for two things today. To not be playing the Yankees and to have Ricky Porcello back on the hill. The fact that they're facing a lefty hybrid starter/reliever isn't bad news either. Look for the Tiger bats to get back to cranking in the Motor City and Porcello to shut down the M's like he did earlier this season. I like this one a lot. Take the Tigers minus 1.5 runs (+130). Detroit Rock City wins 7-2. LOCK IT UP

Cleveland @ Toronto - The Locks got burned by Cliff Lee his last time out but we'll play with fire once again. The Jays do have some guys that hit Mr. Lee fairly well. Plus, we're expecting that the Indians pen will be heard from in this one. Cleveland also doesn't hit lefties terribly well and Brett Cecil has already had his way with this team once this season. Plus we get to take advantage of a misguided moneyline since Clifford is on the mound. Take the Jays (-105) to prevail at home, 5-2. LOCK IT UP

Boston @ Texas - I keep waiting for the Red Sox offense to get going. It continues not to happen. Papi is back to hitting and now nobody else is. Christ, they got the run that would have won us the over last night thrown out at the plate when a geriatric looking Mike Lowell barely had enough gas to get down the line. Now, tonight seems as good a night as any for this offense to erupt. For starters, they are now tied for 1st place in the AL East and this team always responds to that sort of challenge. Second, their career numbers against Tommy Hunter (though a very small sample size) are very good (5-11 with a HR, combined). Beckett will not have to be perfect tonight to get the Sox this victory. We'll take the Sox minus 1.5 runs (-110) to topple the Rangers, 8-3. LOCK IT UP

St. Louis @ Houston - Another day and the Astros continue to fool the Absolute Locks. Now they start Absolute Locks nemesis Wandy Rodriguez and we're really backed into a corner. Do we finally back off our attack on Magic Wandy and back him or stick to our guns? There is no doubt that the Cardinals are the better team. However, they are not inspiring much confidence with Todd Wellemeyer on the mound. Strictly based on the moneyline, we're going to make one more run at tearing down the Astros and Rodriguez. We like the Cards (+133) to somehow pull this one out. They'll win 5-4. LOCK IT UP

Tampa Bay @ Chicago - We're sticking with the South Siders in this series. Tampa doesn't beat lefties as much as they should (15-19) and we've elected Paul Konerko to a cabinet position in our top-5 favorite non-Yankees. This will be another down to the wire contest but we think that the Sox pull it out (maybe even in walk-off fashion). Take Chicago (+103) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP

Arizona @ Colorado - Same ole story with the Rocks at home against the DBacks. Colorado will score many runs; Arizona, not so much. Aaron Cook will redeem himself from an abysmal start against the Diamondbacks earlier this year. The Rockies have been making us dough and keeping our BAT respectable. Now is not the time to abandon ship. Colorado minus 1.5 runs (+140) in a 8-4 win. LOCK IT UP

Florida @ San Diego - If the o/u in this game wasn't at a minuscule 7 runs, we'd be all over the under. We're not sure which one of these teams will figure at where home plate is located or how often that will happen. We're almost tempted not to pick this game at all but how much fun would that be? I've gone back and forth a bunch of times on this one and have settled on San Diego. This is one of the few times we'll endorse the Padres (-105). They'll squeak out a win in this snoozefest, 4-3. LOCK IT UP

Minnesota @ Oakland - How do the Twins bounce back from last night? If I was Ron Gardenhire, I would have taken them into the clubhouse after that game and given them the: "You Just Got Beat By A Bunch of God Damn Nerds" speech from Revenge of the Nerds. It was Minnesota's relievers' limp-wristed throwing style that really did them in last night. Let's hope they don't have any more Lamars lurking in the pen. Actually, let's hope they do because we're gonna get on the OakTown train tonight. The Twins don't win away from home and they don't beat lefties. It's Dallas Braden's night to shine. Take the A's to keep the momentum rolling. Oakland (-132) wins tonight, 6-3 LOCK IT UP.

THAT'S 16 PICKS. WE'VE GOT AT LEAST 11 WINNERS IN THERE, IF NOT MORE. GO MONEY!


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