College Gambling Tutorial: The Art of Buying Points

As we move on to the first Saturday of college football, there is a major theme enveloping each of the Locks' picks: buying points.  Often times - especially in the college game with its large point spreads - buying points is really nothing more than a waste of money.  That said, there are some magic number point spreads that allow you to move onto the right side of the line at the cost of just a few dollars from your winnings.  Whether it is getting a favorite down to under a TD spread or buying an extra half of a point to get a dog clear of a FG line, buying points can prove an excellent strategy.  It just so happens that all five of the games we're profiling for Saturday fit the bill for point purchase.

4 Star Special:

Oregon State @ TCU - Line is TCU -13.5 - We're not going to go on a rant here about TCU being overrated or the fact that there schedule is so weak that they'll look like a very good team this year no matter how well they play or the fact that many of the people touting TCU don't even know what TCU stands for.  No, when it comes to this game, the Locks is here to simply call attention to a Vegas line that is way too complimentary of the current TCU squad.  If this were an 8 point game, we'd be all over the Horned Frogs.  Yet, at nearly 2 touchdowns (at we'll get it there by buying points) this line is out of whack.  Oregon State is a legitimate football team as evidenced by its own top 25 ranking and Jacquizz Rodgers is someone who can absolutely take over a game and make a good defense look mediocre.  At the very least, Jacquizz and his brother will keep the Beavers within striking distance in this game.  For added comfort, the Locks suggest that you buy 1 full point and get this line to the point where OSU is getting 14.5 points.  That will prove enough cushion for a nice win.  Take Oregon State with those 14.5 points.  Final score looks like 31-20 TCU.  LOCK IT UP.

3 Star Specials:

Connecticut @ Michigan - Line is Michigan -3 - Keep it Simple Stupid with this game.  UConn is underrated outside of the northeast.  They are a tough, physical football team that plays (and often wins) hard fought, close games.  Michigan is overrated everywhere.  They often start seasons very slow (remember that Appalachian State game a few years back?).  They can't even decide on a starting QB.  This line is based on Michigan hype, not talent.  We like UConn to go into Ann Arbor and win outright.  However, to enhance our chances for a W, let's buy .5 points so that we win even if Michigan kicks a late game-winning field goal.  Take UConn with a line bought to 3.5 points.  Same old story in Michigan as they lose a home opener 24-23.  LOCK IT UP

UNC vs. LSU (Neutral Field) - Line is LSU -7 - One of the most talked about games of the week because nobody has known how many Carolina players would actually be able to suit up.  Well now we know that 12 Tar Heels are banned from this game including several key members of the defense.  Not the way a team with big expectations wants to kick off a year.  While we don't love LSU (we've been waiting for Jordan Jefferson to harness his talents for 3 years now), if this is a game that they can't win with some ease, then they are in for a long SEC campaign.  A depleted UNC team that has had a week of complete uncertainly leading up to this game just can't hang in this one.  To be safe, we're buying half a point to get the line down to LSU -6.5.  The Tigers should take care of business, pleasing us and fans like this broad.  Final score is 27-17 with LSU on top.  LOCK IT UP

2 Star Special:

Washington State @ Oklahoma State - Line is Oklahoma State -17 - While the Locks views Okie State as a decent football and someone who may make a modest amount of noise in the Big 12, this prediction is all about Washington State.  WSU might just be the first major conference D1 football team in the country.  They are just that bad.  Had this line been OSU - 28, we wouldn't have batted an eye.  Take a vomit-inducing Pac-10 team and drop them on campus in the Big 12 and things will not go well.  The only thing left to do is buy another .5 points to move this line onto the right side of -17 and we're good to go.  Take Oklahoma State -16.5 to roll in this one, 45-20.  LOCK IT UP

1 Star Special:

Syracuse @ Akron - Line is SU -7.5 - This is nothing more than an obligatory pick based on the Locks' affiliation with the Orange.  Currently, the Cuse football program is in complete disarray - and by disarray we mean that they suck.  However, they are playing at team named Akron and if the Orange can find a way to win this game somewhat handily, they might just compete with Washington State for the title of worst major conference D1 football program.  What is interesting is that there appears to be a ton of action on Akron in this game.  The line has move from SU -9 down to SU -7.5 in less than 24 hours.  That might tell you all you need to know about this game and may demonstrate why the biased Locks should never pick a CuseCuse isn't a TD better than Akron than Jim Boeheim might have to take over the football squad.  Buy a full point in this game to get the Cuse down to a 6.5 point favorite and hope that there is still some football pride in Onondaga County.  Take SU -6.5 to win an ugly game, 24-17.  LOCK IT UP

Hopefully this guy won't be calling plays for SU football anytime soon....