We find ourselves perched on the eve of the kickoff of college football season and the view is spectacular. We are on the brink of gambling on the first meaningful football in more than six months and it is intoxicating. And we're not just starting with some rinky-dink one-gamer on Thursday night. No, we have no less than four Top 25 teams in action on Thursday. While the Locks' enthusiasm almost demands that we preview all four of these match-ups, we've going to attempt to be judicious and offer those games that we have very strong feelings on (not to mention the fact that we can't even find a line on the Miami game).
This year we're trying something new and rating our confidence in the Locks we offer. 5 Stars will mean the game is an absolutely impenetrable fortress of unbeatability whereas 1 Star will mean it is a mere mortal guarantee.
So here are three "Locks" for your betting pleasure:
3 Star Specials:
Pittsburgh @ Utah - Line is Utah -3 - While Pitt comes in to this game as the ranked team (#15), there are a number of troubling details which make the favored Utes look like a solid play at home. For starters, Salt Lake City is a place that neither opposing football teams nor non-Mormons like to visit. Utah has won 17 straight at home and 21 of its last 22 against non-conference opponents. Plus, SLC is not exactly right down the road from the Steel City - travel will be a big factor in this one especially when considering our next point. Pitt is a rather young, inexperienced team. Not the precise recipe for stealing a tough road W. The Panthers have only 9 seniors on their roster (a shockingly low number for a Top 15 team) and more importantly are turning the reigns over to a redshirt sophomore QB. This does little to remove the memory of Pitt's inability to win close games late last season. For all of its concerns, Pitt does have one of the country's best running backs and perhaps its best pure runner since Tony Dorsett - so not all is lost. However, it is the other side of the ball that we think is the deciding factor in this one. Can Utah's QB - who finished last year with a flourish - and its senior RB counter a tough front 7 for Pittsburgh. We think that Utah will do enough to spoil Pitt's plans for a fast start to the season. Home field advantage combined with Pitt's youth and inexperience will prove too much for the Panthers. Take Utah, give the 3 and enjoy the Ute's 24-20 victory. LOCK IT UP!
USC @ Hawaii - Line is USC -21 - Big road favorites are always scary propositions especially for season openers where the team is likely to feel a little too good about itself. That concern is even more acute for road teams that are traveling to remote islands more than five hours from home. All that said, this is a very, very different USC team than we've become accustomed to over the past several years. Instead of trying to be everyone's darling, this team is looking to deliver 13 bone-crushing smackdowns to make up for the fact that the NCAA has ruled them bowl ineligible for the season. There is no questioning the talent on USC and when you combine that with a perceived slight leveled on the entire team, you just might have the recipe some major Fuck You games - the like of which we haven't seen since the 2007 Patriots. The Lane Kiffin era begins with what should not be much of a test (aside from jet-lag) against a Hawaii team that has seen better days. USC is loaded on offense (assuming Matt Barkley experiences a typical improvement from freshman to sophomore season) and we're highlighting RB Marc Tyler as a potential breakout star of the college football season. In each of the past 3 games between USC and the Hawaiians, the Trojans have thrown up at least 61 points. That sort of offensive output does not make covering a three touchdown line too difficult. Look for a big smile on Kiffin's smug mug by the early second quarter and watch USC cruise to an impressive opening game win. Take the Trojans -21 to win 45-16. LOCK IT UP!
Marshall @ Ohio State - Line is Ohio State - 28.5 - This is not "We Are Marshall." More importantly, Ohio State is not Marshall. OSU just so happens to be one of the most legit national championship contenders heading into this game and they know that you need to make a statement when you find yourself in that position. While the media will have you believe that this team is all about Terrell Pryor - and he is very, very good - the true strength of the Buckeyes is a defense that returns almost everyone to a squad that only gave up 12.5 points per game last season. Marshall might have to wait until game #2 to see that 0 come off the scoreboard. Then there is Pryor and the other top 3 returning rushers on OSU. There is no question that Ohio State wins this game and does so in a very convincing fashion. The question is whether their sometime underwhelming offense will be firing on enough cylinders to allow for a 28.5 point cover. We think Pryor answers that question with an emphatic yes as he kicks off a potential Heisman run. Take OSU -28.5 to throttle Marshall 38-3. LOCK IT UP
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