It's Friday. We've got a job. We've got shit to do. Yet Absolute Locks won't write itself. So we've reassessed my priorities and proudly present you with your Week 3 college football winners and the common thread for nearly all of these picks makes me cringe (road favorites - YIKES):
5 Star Special:
Iowa @ Arizona - Line is a Pick Em - For the second week in a row we're featuring the Iowa Hawkeyes in our 5 star special. Amazing to the Locks, this line has move quite a bit in recent days. In fact, we locked in our wager yesterday when Iowa was still a 1.5 point favorite. We're kicking ourselves for that now but love this pick even more with the Hawkeyes only needing to win outright. Iowa's defense is absolutely nasty, it can run the ball on anyone and it has a competent, experienced QB. If those are the keys to winning college football games, then I don't know what I think I know. Arizona is a solid squad with a potentially explosive offense. They are also playing at home. These facts must account for the line movement. That said, if any team can come into this hostile territory and not be rattled, it is the battle-tested, even-keel Iowa Hawkeyes. We absolutely love Iowa to win this game. Take Iowa. Final score is 27-21. LOCK IT UP!
4 Star Specials:
Nebraska @ Washington - Line is Nebraska -3 - We really must have a death wish as we're suggesting backing another road favorite in a venue that is notoriously difficult for visitors. The UW fans will be obnoxiously loud as usual and Jake Locker will be looking to make his first definitive Heisman statement of the year. All that aside, Bo has his Huskers back to being a team that others should not want to face. The defensive line of Nebraska will slow the Washington running game and put Jake in a Hurt Locker for most of this game. The dynamic Nebraska offense should also have no trouble putting up points against a defense that allowed the lowly Syracuse Orange to throw up a quick 10 spot on them last week. We like the Cornhuskers to head west and claim a big victory. Take Nebraska but buy .5 points to get this thing under a FG. Huskers (-2.5). Final score 34-31 Nebraska. LOCK IT UP!
Houston @ UCLA - Line is Houston -3.5 - We're not hesitating to support a Houston team that may be without its Heisman candidate QB Case Keenum and which almost always disappoints when it plays against big conference opponents. Why are we doing this you might ask? Because UCLA is the equivalent of Sean Penn in Dead Man Walking. This team just got absolutely throttled at home vs. conference rival Stanford. If they can't get up for that game, then why on earth would we expect they could hang with another Top 25 team. Granted Keenum might be out with concussion symptoms but this Houston team has actually found a viable running game. There is nothing viable about Rick Neuheisel and the Bruins. Buy half a point here as well. Move the line to Houston (-3) and take the boys from Texas. The Bruins are in ruin. Final score is 38-31. LOCK IT UP!
3 Star Specials:
Florida @ Tennessee - Line is Florida -14 - This game being played in Knoxville can be the only justification for this ridiculously small line. Florida is ready to finally put a complete game together and show that they are not a middle-of-the-pack team in the SEC. More importantly, Tennessee is an obscenely young and wildly thin team. Sure, they might keep this competitive for a half but once the middle of the 3rd quarter rolls around, the Volunteers will be looking for volunteers to take some reps for them. At that point, the Gators will drop the hammer and run away with this thing. Don't overlook the fact that Tennessee also got brutally whipped last week at home by Oregon. We're not sure this team has what it takes to rebound very quickly from that humiliation. Take F-L-A and give the 2 TDs. Final score is 45-24. LOCK IT UP!
USC @ Minnesota - Line is USC -12 - This is a game that can make us look really silly. USC hasn't shown a whole lot to be impressed with yet this year and many are questioning if their heart is even in this season of bowl ineligibility. The Locks, for one, think the Trojans will start to fire on all cylinders one of these weeks and really turn some heads around the country. We're willing to bet this is the week that Lane Kiffin gets a full game out of his team. Minnesota has another one of those beautiful new stadiums that make it tough on visitors but they just don't have the talent to hang in this one. The Locks would also like to take this opportunity to remind you of our week 1 prediction that USC's RB Marc Tyler will be one the season's breakout stars. Look for a big game from Dr. Tyler on Saturday. Take the Trojans to butcher the Golden Gophers. Lay the 12 points. Final score is 48-27. LOCK IT UP!
Clemson @ Auburn - Line is Auburn -7 - Well I'll be dipped, the Locks finally likes a home team this week. Let's hope this is the right home team to like. As Friend of the Locks, Mark Borton knows all too well, the Locks loves this Auburn team. We can't quite put our finger on why but we do. They're tough. They're often overlooked in the talent-heavy SEC. They play a tough-hitting, angry defense and now finally have a legitimate talent at QB. Those all seem like decent reasons to love them. Then there is a Clemson, a team that has done nothing but disappoint the Locks in big spots over the past few seasons. Plus, we'll take SEC over ACC every day of the week. Especially when those little ACC humps are coming into SEC country. We are going to buy half a point here to get this under a TD. The game will be competitive but Auburn will finish the job. Take Auburn -6.5. Final score is 27-20. LOCK IT UP!
2 Star Specials:
Alabama @ Duke - Line is Bama -24
Notre Dame @ Michigan State - Line is MSU -3.5
We're lumping these two games together because the same gambling philosophy is at work in each of them. That philosophy involves continuing to bet a specific angle until it fails, regardless of what you think of the specific game. In the Bama game, the specific angle is that Bama is so much better than its opponents that it will continue to cover regardless of the line (a bastard child of the Boise State Theorem). Until they prove otherwise, we'll continue to ride the Tide (did we mention that Bama's backup RB benches 475 pounds and complains that the strength coach won't let him find out how much he can really throw up? Ridiculous). As for the Irish, the philosophy is very simple. They aren't as good as Vegas gives them credit for and never figures out how to come out on the right side of the number. Essentially, you can always make money betting against them. We wanted to pick against them last week vs. Michigan and got gun shy. We won't make that mistake again this week. We'll keep fighting against ND until they prove us wrong. Take Bama and MSU and lay the points in both games. Final scores are 48-17 Bama; 31-27 MSU. LOCK EM UP!
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