College football delivered yet another day of unpredictable action with little rhyme or reason to who showed up to play (Iowa, Auburn, Stanford, Syracuse) and who didn't (Michigan State, Missouri, Clemson and Miami). That is the Locksmith's way of establishing an alibi for a potentially mediocre day of prognostication. Well no excuse will be needed come this time tomorrow, we're ready for our best day of predicting professional pigskin.
Five Star Special:
Miami @ Cincinnati - Line is Dolphins +1 - Is this line correct? I can seem to understand it. The Dolphins are a very solid football team and have yet to lose on the road. The Bengals have proven nothing yet this year other than the fact that they are not very good, Carson Palmer is no longer a decent NFL QB and their WRs can't back up all their talk. Getting points here feels like a real treat. Miami will win this game. Final score is 23-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Pittsburgh @ New Orleans - Line is Saints -1 - This is a complete gut pick. We think the Saints are due and we think it's going to be a big time game (i.e. nationally televised night game against a top 3 team) in which they make a statement. Pittsburgh's been catching a number of breaks and that tends to even out. The Superdome will be a tough place for the Steelers and Halloween in the Big Easy only makes that more of a troubling situation. This game will be close but we expect an ill-advised Big Ben pick or two to be the difference. The Saints win 27-23. LOCK IT UP
Green Bay @ New York Jets - Line is Jets -6.5 - We can't believe that we're driving this Pets' gravy train but you just can't argue with success - especially when it equates to gambling winnings. The Jets have had a week to prepare for a banged up Green Bay team that just had to play their butts off to barely beat an underachieving Vikings team at home. Revis Island appears to be inhabited again this week so say goodbye to Greg Jennings. Without him, who the heck will Rodgers throw to? This one is not shaping up well for the Pack. Look for a pretty convincing Jets' win. Final score is 24-10. LOCK IT UP
Carolina @ St. Louis - Line is Rams -2 - Can you believe that the Rams are favorites in games these days? More importantly, can you believe we're picking them to cover as a favorite as a four star special? Well we are. The Panthers are banged up. Steve Smith ain't himself and DeAngelo Williams is likely a no-go this week. The Rams D is solid, as is Steven Jackson. We all have to start getting used to some convincing Rams' victories. Final score is 23-14. LOCK IT UP
Denver vs San Francisco (in London) - Line is 49ers -2.5 - How can these 49ers possibly be favored in any game at this point. That is all that we have to write about this one. Too bad the good folks of England need to see this game. Take the Broncos and the points. Denver wins 25-23. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Washington @ Detroit - Line is Lions -2.5 - Now the Lions are favorites too? That's just too much for us. We'd like to see Matthew Stafford play an entire game before we give this offense our blessing. What we do know is that the Lions' defense isn't very good. And you have to give it to those Skins. They are somehow figuring out how to win games week in and week out. It's rarely pretty but shockingly effective. We'll take the points here. Skins win outright 16-13. LOCK IT UP
Buffalo @ Kansas City - Line is Chiefs -7 - It must be Halloween if the Chiefs are also favorites. Actually, this team is very much for real. And the Bills are atrocious. Don't be fooled by all the Ryan Fitzpatrick hype. The Bills stink. The Chiefs will run all over them. The home crowd will demoralize the Bills. Nothing will work for them. Final score is 33-17. LOCK IT UP
Jacksonville @ Dallas - Line is Cowboys -6.5 - It is now or never for the Cowboys. Fortunately the Jaguars are coming to town. Dallas is due for one solid performance at some point. They just can't keep playing this badly. The John Kitna era gets off to a fast start. Final score is 31-17. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ Indianapolis - Line is Colts -4.5 - This is a payback game if there ever was one. The Colts, especially their defense, remembers what Arian Foster did to them in Week 1. Don't expect a repeat. Plus Peyton Manning on Monday night is just too much of a good bet. Lay the points as the Colts treat the Texans fairly rudely. Final score is 38-28. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Seattle @ Oakland - Line is Raiders -2.5 - Oakland is getting better, no argument here. However, in typical Raider fashion, they will find a way to demoralize fans after building them up with last week's demolition of Denver. The Seahawks are showing some spunk under Pete Carroll. We like a Seahawk win on the road. Final score is 24-20. LOCK IT UP
Tennessee @ San Diego - Line is Chargers -4.5 - Somehow what we originally wrote about this game got erased. It was something along the lines of the Chargers being due. That they can't keep leading the NFL in total offense and total defense but not win games. Tennessee is good but they're getting too much love these days which is the kiss of death. For one week at least, the Chargers will look like a legitimate team. They'll cover. Final score is 31-23. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ New England - Line is Patriots -4.5 - Just like it is now or never for the Cowboys, it is now or never for the Vikings. The Patriots win close games but that doesn't mean they'll cover. Their offense is just not as dynamic with Senor Moss. We think ADP runs over enough Pats to keep this close. Take the points. Final score is 23-21. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Tampa Bay @ Arizona - Lines is Cardinals -3.5 - If Tampa Bay is really one of the best teams in the NFC - which their coach seems to believe - this is a game they need to win. We all know that the Cardinals are much tougher at home but let's not forget that Max Hall is their QB. Josh Freeman is a winner and the Tampa D should be able to keep the Cards in check. We'll take the 3.5 points and roll with Freeman. Final score is 20-17. LOCK IT UP
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Friday, October 29, 2010
In the Immortal Words of Matt "The Kid" Rhoades: "Trick or Treat Motherf****er"
That title just about says it all about this weekend. We're tackling the college and professional football weekend much like an innocent kid on Halloween. All dressed up in a superhero costume that requires tights that will undoubtedly cause significant genital chafing. However, our spirit remains high and optimism for the big score is growing by the minute. That said, lurking there in the back of our minds is the distinct possibility that our day may involve more boxes of raisinettes, coupons for McDonald's shakes and flaming bags of dog shit than value-sized Whatchamacallits, large boxes of Junior Mints and the occasional costume malfunctions for well-endowed women. Thus is the life of the Locksmith.
Five Star Specials:
Oregon @ USC - Line is Oregon -7 - We started this year on an ill-advised rant about how USC would leverage the disrespect/no-bowl card into a successful season in which they sought to annihilate all that came in their path. We drove that bus for about 4 weeks and once we realized that it was careening wildly out of control, we jumped out the rear emergency door. Well, since then, the Trojans have started to show glimpses of that powerhouse potential, causing fans and gamblers alike to take notice. That is the only reason that can explain why a team of Oregon's immense talents is only a TD favorite over USC. We just don't see it. USC, while relatively talented, is awfully thin - especially on defense. That is not a recipe for success against this absurdly unstoppable Ducks offense. Sure Oregon will give up some points but it scores at will. The Ducks know that they are within striking distance to playing in the national championship game and their not going to let the hated Trojans derail them. This will be a fun game to watch but one in which Oregon pulls away for a convincing win. Take the Ducks in Southern Cal. Final score is 59-38. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
West Virginia @ UConn - Line is WVU -6 - A freaky Friday night special. It's hard to believe that we're jumping right back on the Mountaineer bandwagon less than a week after they killed us and embarrassed themselves with a loss at home vs. the challenged Orange of Syracuse. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever won a WVU game that I've wagered on. All that means is that we're due. UConn is a mess - as so vividly illustrated last week in their 26-0 loss at Louisville. They've kicked their QB off the team and their season got labeled "lost" quicker than Pam Anderson's virginity. This is a nice spot for a WVU bounce back. The Big East is still up for grabs and the Mountaineers know they can put the thoughts of Cuse behind them. Look to Noel Devine to run wild. Don't be scared - just lay the points on the road. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Stanford @ Washington - Line is Stanford -7 - We're all over the road favorites this week. We're just not sure how you could go anywhere near Washington with your money following that display they put on last week in Arizona. Sure no team is as bad as they look on a bad day but that was absurd. They were dominated in every single facet of the game. It was the least competitive game I've watched all year. Jake Locker looks like Brett Favre with two bad ankles. Their defense does try to tackle an opposing RB until he's at least 6 yards down the field. It is a total shit show. Sure, this might be a nice week to look for a Huskie bounce back if they were playing a mediocre team. However, Stanford is far from that team. The only reason this line is only 7 is because the game is in Washington. Even that won't be enough to keep the Huskies close to Andy Luck and the Cardinal. This one should be over early. Lay the points. Final score is 31-13. LOCK IT UP
Michigan @ Penn State - Line is Michigan -3 - Another road favorite. Spooky. Yet, Penn State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country for the past few years. There have been few consistent winning angles for the Locks but going anti-PSU has been one of them . Michigan has been out of the limelight for a few weeks so people forget how explosive this offense is. They'll move the ball and score on Penn State. The problem for Michigan is on defense but the Nitzy Lions don't have a dynamic enough offense to take advantage. Look for the Wolverines to return to the headlines for a bit this weekend. Take Michigan. Final score is 31-24. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Auburn @ Ole Miss - Line is Auburn -7 - We're simply too far down the road with Auburn to turn back now. We've been telling everyone - by which we mean Mark Borton - that we love this Auburn team for a long time. Through 8 weeks, they've made us look pretty bright. It hasn't been completely pretty at all times but they've done what they need to do. Now that everyone knows who Cam Newton is, we don't have to scream so loud about this team. We don't think their unbeatable but we definitely don't think that Ole Miss - with their Oregon cast-off QB - is the team to beat them. Everyone loves to say that Ole Miss wins one huge game a year and this must be the one for 2010. We respectfully disagree. Cam will continue to run wild and Auburn stays number 1 for another week. Lay the points. Final score is 34-24. LOCK IT UP
Kentucky @ Mississippi State - Line is Miss St. -6.5 - Our first dog pick of the week. Kentucky might be 4-4 but they hang tough in nearly every game. They just haven't figured out how to finish yet. Rest assured, they'll be in this game late into the fourth quarter. Sure Miss St. is in the Top 25 but the heck has this team beat? The answer would be nobody. You take the points in games you think will be close and this one fits the bill. Final score is 38-35 Mississippi State. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Minnesota - Line is OSU -25.5 - We're not crazy enough to lay 25.5 points on a road team in a Big Ten game unless Purdue is involved. Minnesota might be a mess but they haven't been blown out as much as you'd expect this season. Plus, they do have a nice new stadium that should provide some semblance of a minor home field advantage - if only because the fans would love to see this game be close against the mighty Buckeyes. These conference games - especially in the Big 10 - tend to tighten up as we move through the conference season. We're going to roll the dice and bet the Gophers put forth a game effort this weekend and stay somewhat in this game. Take the points and the home team. Final score is OSU 38-17. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Michigan State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -6.5 - Just like Auburn, we've come too far with this Iowa. Even though our proclamations that they would be a top 5 team at season end have been blown up, we still think this is one of the best teams in the country. We think they're going to relish playing the role of home spoiler against an undefeated conference rival. They have probably the best defensive linemen in the country, one of the best offensive lines, one of the most experienced QBs and a coach looking to erase the memories of an embarrassing clock management blow up from last week. The crowd will be nuts. Iowa will play fast and loose and we think the Spartans blink a bit in this big spot. Give the undefeated team the points, we're sticking with Iowa. Final score is 30-20. LOCK IT UP
Georgia vs. Florida (neutral field) - Line is Georgia -2 - In typical Georgia fashion, they submarined their season with an ugly September and then decided to make a move for a bowl game later in the year. This team is among the hottest in the country, especially on offense. They're throwing up 40 point games with ease. Florida is up and down and certainly a capable opponent. However, this is one of those games the Georgia kids have probably been looking forward to - a chance to bang on a bit of a down Gator team. Momentum carries the day here as Georgia continues to score with ease. Lay the 2 points. Final score is 37-33. LOCK IT UP
TCU @ UNLV - Line is TCU -35 - Here is a huge line for a road team to cover. And you know what? We think they do and still have time to swing by Slots of Fun for a little $1 blackjack Old Vegas style. TCU is a monster on defense. In fact, we're expecting a shutout in this game. All that means is the Horned Frogs need to score 5 TDs and kick one FG. That is imminently doable. Tough to back some a huge road favorite but the Locksmith is afraid of the doing the difficult. Lay those points. Final score is 45-0. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Tulsa @ Notre Dame - Line is ND -9 - Talk about scary - betting ND to cover a spread. At this point in the column, we might have had our brain removed. However, Tulsa is not a good team. If there was ever a time for the Fighting Irish to have a big game and confuse their fans into thinking they might have the pieces in place for a run next year, then this is it. Offense isn't the Irish's issue and they'll score in this game. The question is whether there middle of the pack athletes on D can make some plays. They'll make enough to secure a 10 point victory. This may be the last time we ever support ND so get on board. Lay the points. Final score is 41-31. LOCK IT UP
Five Star Specials:
Oregon @ USC - Line is Oregon -7 - We started this year on an ill-advised rant about how USC would leverage the disrespect/no-bowl card into a successful season in which they sought to annihilate all that came in their path. We drove that bus for about 4 weeks and once we realized that it was careening wildly out of control, we jumped out the rear emergency door. Well, since then, the Trojans have started to show glimpses of that powerhouse potential, causing fans and gamblers alike to take notice. That is the only reason that can explain why a team of Oregon's immense talents is only a TD favorite over USC. We just don't see it. USC, while relatively talented, is awfully thin - especially on defense. That is not a recipe for success against this absurdly unstoppable Ducks offense. Sure Oregon will give up some points but it scores at will. The Ducks know that they are within striking distance to playing in the national championship game and their not going to let the hated Trojans derail them. This will be a fun game to watch but one in which Oregon pulls away for a convincing win. Take the Ducks in Southern Cal. Final score is 59-38. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
West Virginia @ UConn - Line is WVU -6 - A freaky Friday night special. It's hard to believe that we're jumping right back on the Mountaineer bandwagon less than a week after they killed us and embarrassed themselves with a loss at home vs. the challenged Orange of Syracuse. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever won a WVU game that I've wagered on. All that means is that we're due. UConn is a mess - as so vividly illustrated last week in their 26-0 loss at Louisville. They've kicked their QB off the team and their season got labeled "lost" quicker than Pam Anderson's virginity. This is a nice spot for a WVU bounce back. The Big East is still up for grabs and the Mountaineers know they can put the thoughts of Cuse behind them. Look to Noel Devine to run wild. Don't be scared - just lay the points on the road. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Stanford @ Washington - Line is Stanford -7 - We're all over the road favorites this week. We're just not sure how you could go anywhere near Washington with your money following that display they put on last week in Arizona. Sure no team is as bad as they look on a bad day but that was absurd. They were dominated in every single facet of the game. It was the least competitive game I've watched all year. Jake Locker looks like Brett Favre with two bad ankles. Their defense does try to tackle an opposing RB until he's at least 6 yards down the field. It is a total shit show. Sure, this might be a nice week to look for a Huskie bounce back if they were playing a mediocre team. However, Stanford is far from that team. The only reason this line is only 7 is because the game is in Washington. Even that won't be enough to keep the Huskies close to Andy Luck and the Cardinal. This one should be over early. Lay the points. Final score is 31-13. LOCK IT UP
Michigan @ Penn State - Line is Michigan -3 - Another road favorite. Spooky. Yet, Penn State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country for the past few years. There have been few consistent winning angles for the Locks but going anti-PSU has been one of them . Michigan has been out of the limelight for a few weeks so people forget how explosive this offense is. They'll move the ball and score on Penn State. The problem for Michigan is on defense but the Nitzy Lions don't have a dynamic enough offense to take advantage. Look for the Wolverines to return to the headlines for a bit this weekend. Take Michigan. Final score is 31-24. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Auburn @ Ole Miss - Line is Auburn -7 - We're simply too far down the road with Auburn to turn back now. We've been telling everyone - by which we mean Mark Borton - that we love this Auburn team for a long time. Through 8 weeks, they've made us look pretty bright. It hasn't been completely pretty at all times but they've done what they need to do. Now that everyone knows who Cam Newton is, we don't have to scream so loud about this team. We don't think their unbeatable but we definitely don't think that Ole Miss - with their Oregon cast-off QB - is the team to beat them. Everyone loves to say that Ole Miss wins one huge game a year and this must be the one for 2010. We respectfully disagree. Cam will continue to run wild and Auburn stays number 1 for another week. Lay the points. Final score is 34-24. LOCK IT UP
Kentucky @ Mississippi State - Line is Miss St. -6.5 - Our first dog pick of the week. Kentucky might be 4-4 but they hang tough in nearly every game. They just haven't figured out how to finish yet. Rest assured, they'll be in this game late into the fourth quarter. Sure Miss St. is in the Top 25 but the heck has this team beat? The answer would be nobody. You take the points in games you think will be close and this one fits the bill. Final score is 38-35 Mississippi State. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Minnesota - Line is OSU -25.5 - We're not crazy enough to lay 25.5 points on a road team in a Big Ten game unless Purdue is involved. Minnesota might be a mess but they haven't been blown out as much as you'd expect this season. Plus, they do have a nice new stadium that should provide some semblance of a minor home field advantage - if only because the fans would love to see this game be close against the mighty Buckeyes. These conference games - especially in the Big 10 - tend to tighten up as we move through the conference season. We're going to roll the dice and bet the Gophers put forth a game effort this weekend and stay somewhat in this game. Take the points and the home team. Final score is OSU 38-17. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Michigan State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -6.5 - Just like Auburn, we've come too far with this Iowa. Even though our proclamations that they would be a top 5 team at season end have been blown up, we still think this is one of the best teams in the country. We think they're going to relish playing the role of home spoiler against an undefeated conference rival. They have probably the best defensive linemen in the country, one of the best offensive lines, one of the most experienced QBs and a coach looking to erase the memories of an embarrassing clock management blow up from last week. The crowd will be nuts. Iowa will play fast and loose and we think the Spartans blink a bit in this big spot. Give the undefeated team the points, we're sticking with Iowa. Final score is 30-20. LOCK IT UP
Georgia vs. Florida (neutral field) - Line is Georgia -2 - In typical Georgia fashion, they submarined their season with an ugly September and then decided to make a move for a bowl game later in the year. This team is among the hottest in the country, especially on offense. They're throwing up 40 point games with ease. Florida is up and down and certainly a capable opponent. However, this is one of those games the Georgia kids have probably been looking forward to - a chance to bang on a bit of a down Gator team. Momentum carries the day here as Georgia continues to score with ease. Lay the 2 points. Final score is 37-33. LOCK IT UP
TCU @ UNLV - Line is TCU -35 - Here is a huge line for a road team to cover. And you know what? We think they do and still have time to swing by Slots of Fun for a little $1 blackjack Old Vegas style. TCU is a monster on defense. In fact, we're expecting a shutout in this game. All that means is the Horned Frogs need to score 5 TDs and kick one FG. That is imminently doable. Tough to back some a huge road favorite but the Locksmith is afraid of the doing the difficult. Lay those points. Final score is 45-0. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Tulsa @ Notre Dame - Line is ND -9 - Talk about scary - betting ND to cover a spread. At this point in the column, we might have had our brain removed. However, Tulsa is not a good team. If there was ever a time for the Fighting Irish to have a big game and confuse their fans into thinking they might have the pieces in place for a run next year, then this is it. Offense isn't the Irish's issue and they'll score in this game. The question is whether there middle of the pack athletes on D can make some plays. They'll make enough to secure a 10 point victory. This may be the last time we ever support ND so get on board. Lay the points. Final score is 41-31. LOCK IT UP
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Thursday Night - Rule #1 Need Not Apply
Can you believe that 103 bets into the NFL season and 69 (yes, 69) into the college season and the Locks is exactly at .500 in both categories. 33-33-3 in college and 50-50-3 in the pros. That is just ridiculous for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that we could have saved a ton of time and simply flipped a coin during the past two months. Oh well. Upward and onward.
In a week that saw us heartily back the Theorem and get rewarded with a shit sandwich, we're going to take an opportunity to poo-poo good old Rule #1 (take home dogs on Thursday night ESPN games). Yup, we're upside and turned around. The things that used to make so much sense just don't compute any longer. It's time to adapt. Zig instead of zag. Work the flip-flop.
Three Star Special:
Florida State @ North Carolina State - Line is FSU -4 - There are two key considerations that are steering us toward the Seminoles tonight. (1) Christian Ponder, who has been uncharacteristically up and down this season, had a bye week last week to get his mechanics in order. Apparently he's now throwing the ball better than Jimbo Fisher has ever seen. Ponder is the type of QB talent that can decimate a defense all on his own - especially one as questionable as the Wolfpack's. (2) Florida State leads the country in sacks - and its not close. The Seminoles have 30 and no other team is within 5 of them. When you can control the line of scrimmage in that fashion and force a somewhat mistake prone QB to make quick decisions, you have a significant advantage. QB pressure has been such a disruptive force in so many college games this season that you might be well advised to always bet on the team with the better pass rush. We know that the NC State will have the home crowd in its favor - we've tooted that horn enough this year. However, if they can't move the ball on offense because FSU is in the backfield, and if they can't slow down Ponder and his speedy receivers, there isn't going to be much to cheer about. We like Florida State to control this game throughout. Lay the points. Final score is FSU 37-23. LOCK IT UP
In a week that saw us heartily back the Theorem and get rewarded with a shit sandwich, we're going to take an opportunity to poo-poo good old Rule #1 (take home dogs on Thursday night ESPN games). Yup, we're upside and turned around. The things that used to make so much sense just don't compute any longer. It's time to adapt. Zig instead of zag. Work the flip-flop.
Three Star Special:
Florida State @ North Carolina State - Line is FSU -4 - There are two key considerations that are steering us toward the Seminoles tonight. (1) Christian Ponder, who has been uncharacteristically up and down this season, had a bye week last week to get his mechanics in order. Apparently he's now throwing the ball better than Jimbo Fisher has ever seen. Ponder is the type of QB talent that can decimate a defense all on his own - especially one as questionable as the Wolfpack's. (2) Florida State leads the country in sacks - and its not close. The Seminoles have 30 and no other team is within 5 of them. When you can control the line of scrimmage in that fashion and force a somewhat mistake prone QB to make quick decisions, you have a significant advantage. QB pressure has been such a disruptive force in so many college games this season that you might be well advised to always bet on the team with the better pass rush. We know that the NC State will have the home crowd in its favor - we've tooted that horn enough this year. However, if they can't move the ball on offense because FSU is in the backfield, and if they can't slow down Ponder and his speedy receivers, there isn't going to be much to cheer about. We like Florida State to control this game throughout. Lay the points. Final score is FSU 37-23. LOCK IT UP
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Tuesday Evening Mathematics Lesson: Trust In Thy Theorem
Oh boy. We're getting closer to that time of year when we'll have a college football game on almost every night of the week. That, my friends, is good news. And to get us ready for that tsunami of action, we have a Tuesday night tease that gets the Locks fired up. Not only do we get to watch some pigskin tonight, we get to put the Boise State Theorem through the paces and compile additional data to support or refute its underlying hypothesis. Throw in an isosceles triangle, a corollary of the law of cosines and a limp-wristed javelin throwing style and we are in nerd heaven.
Five Star Special:
Louisiana Tech @ Boise State - Line is Boise State -38 - There will be no disproving the Theorem this evening. In fact, this is the quintessential Theorem setup. The required proofs for demonstrating the foundation for the Theorem are all at work in abundance this evening. Let us review:
Five Star Special:
Louisiana Tech @ Boise State - Line is Boise State -38 - There will be no disproving the Theorem this evening. In fact, this is the quintessential Theorem setup. The required proofs for demonstrating the foundation for the Theorem are all at work in abundance this evening. Let us review:
- A nationally televised game providing the stage for Boise to make its case to all college football fans and voters without other distractions.
- A week featuring another BCS poll that has slapped the Broncos in the face. First it was Oklahoma leap-frogging Boise in the BCS rankings for no good reason (how did that work out for you Sooners?) and now Auburn. Boise got hit with disrespect card on the river and the whole world witnessed that bad beat.
- A woefully inferior opponent who is still trying to figure out how it is in the same conference as Boise State. How do you travel from Louisiana all the way to Idaho without ever leaving your conference? The level of resistance provided by La Tech tonight will be roughly on par with an effort by Brett Favre to avoid the spotlight.
- The Blue Turf. This game is being played in Boise. That is never good for the opponent or the point spread.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
NFL - Week 7
Nothing but picks:
Five Stars Special:
Ravens -13
Four Star Specials:
Steelers -3
Eagles +2.5
Redskins +3
Giants +3.5
Three Star Specials:
Browns +13
Falcons -3.5
Panthers +3
Broncos -7.5
Two Star Specials:
Jaguars +9.5
Chargers -2
Rams +3
Vikings +3
One Star Special:
Seahawks -7
Five Stars Special:
Ravens -13
Four Star Specials:
Steelers -3
Eagles +2.5
Redskins +3
Giants +3.5
Three Star Specials:
Browns +13
Falcons -3.5
Panthers +3
Broncos -7.5
Two Star Specials:
Jaguars +9.5
Chargers -2
Rams +3
Vikings +3
One Star Special:
Seahawks -7
Friday, October 22, 2010
College - Quick Hitters, Quick Coin
We've got a head cold that is impacting our ability to write long, flowing prose but having no negative impact on selecting winners from the realm of college football. That means we're going with some quick hitters for tomorrow's Big Man on Campus action. Enjoy:
Five Star Special:
West Virginia -13.5 vs. Syracuse - The Mountaineers own the Cuse, especially in Morgantown. WVU has an imposing defense and can run the ball. The Cuse is in a world of trouble. If they played this game earlier in the year (pre-mini Cuse run over bad teams), the line would be closer to 24. West Virginia will put a beating on the Orange. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Nebraska -6 @ Oklahoma St - A home dog we can stay away from. The Cowboys have an impressive offense and are undefeated. However, their defense is suspect (more than 27 points per game). They have yet to face a defense like Nebraska's - in fact they don't have any impressive wins yet this year. The Cornhuskers are going to be looking to exact major revenge for last week's loss. Look out OSU. Huskers roll big. LOCK IT UP
TCU -18 vs. Air Force - Since we don't have Boise State this week to scream "Theorem" about, we're going to lend the theorem to TCU. They need style points via blowouts as well. The poor military plane flyers come to town and get Private Piled. Take TCU and give the points. This won't be close. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Iowa -6.5 vs. Wisconsin - You know we love the Hawkeyes but this is a tough number to swallow. Fresh off knocking off #1, the Badgers are getting almost a TD. We can't turn our backs on Iowa now and this could have the makings a minor letdown for Wisconsin. Iowa will be top 5 by bowl season. LOCK IT UP
Louisville -3 vs. Connecticut - UConn just kicked their starting QB off the team. Starting a redshirt freshman tomorrow. Louisville is pretty solid and at home. The Huskies are a disaster in so many ways. LOCK IT UP
Michigan State -6 @ Northwestern - We're finally flipping our perspective on Northwestern. They were magical at busting the spread last year. This year, they've burned us one too many times. Plus, the Spartans are playing some of the best football in the country. Going on the road in the Big 10 is never easy, but we like MSU to cover. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Missouri +3 vs. Oklahoma - Can't stay away from the home dog in a nationally televised night game. This is the biggest football game at Missouri in years and years and years. The crowd is going to be in a frenzy and the Sooners are not worthy of their current ranking. Missou wins this one outright. LOCK IT UP
Auburn -6 vs. LSU - This is a carbon copy of the Iowa game for us. We've been pumping Auburn all year and can't stop now, even if the spread scares us a bit. The magic for the maniacal Les Miles has to end at some point. Plus, LSU just can't score. Home field is going to be huge here but not as huge as Auburn's huge QB. The Tigers (the ones from Auburn) make a statement with this win and firmly entrench themselves in the BCS discussion. The other Tigers slink home to the swamp wondering how they got this far with George Jefferson at QB, LOCK IT UP
North Carolina +6.5 @ Miami - UNC is coming around after a disastrous start to the season. Miami is way too up and down to command this line against a streaking team. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Washington +6.5 @ Arizona - Zona just lost starting QB Nick Foles for this game. He's been a huge force in their early season success. There is going to be some fall off to their backup. Washington is up and down and frustrating. But they're talented too with one of the premier QBs in the West. This is just too many points. Who knows who wins but we know its close. Take the points. LOCK IT UP
Five Star Special:
West Virginia -13.5 vs. Syracuse - The Mountaineers own the Cuse, especially in Morgantown. WVU has an imposing defense and can run the ball. The Cuse is in a world of trouble. If they played this game earlier in the year (pre-mini Cuse run over bad teams), the line would be closer to 24. West Virginia will put a beating on the Orange. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Nebraska -6 @ Oklahoma St - A home dog we can stay away from. The Cowboys have an impressive offense and are undefeated. However, their defense is suspect (more than 27 points per game). They have yet to face a defense like Nebraska's - in fact they don't have any impressive wins yet this year. The Cornhuskers are going to be looking to exact major revenge for last week's loss. Look out OSU. Huskers roll big. LOCK IT UP
TCU -18 vs. Air Force - Since we don't have Boise State this week to scream "Theorem" about, we're going to lend the theorem to TCU. They need style points via blowouts as well. The poor military plane flyers come to town and get Private Piled. Take TCU and give the points. This won't be close. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Iowa -6.5 vs. Wisconsin - You know we love the Hawkeyes but this is a tough number to swallow. Fresh off knocking off #1, the Badgers are getting almost a TD. We can't turn our backs on Iowa now and this could have the makings a minor letdown for Wisconsin. Iowa will be top 5 by bowl season. LOCK IT UP
Louisville -3 vs. Connecticut - UConn just kicked their starting QB off the team. Starting a redshirt freshman tomorrow. Louisville is pretty solid and at home. The Huskies are a disaster in so many ways. LOCK IT UP
Michigan State -6 @ Northwestern - We're finally flipping our perspective on Northwestern. They were magical at busting the spread last year. This year, they've burned us one too many times. Plus, the Spartans are playing some of the best football in the country. Going on the road in the Big 10 is never easy, but we like MSU to cover. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Missouri +3 vs. Oklahoma - Can't stay away from the home dog in a nationally televised night game. This is the biggest football game at Missouri in years and years and years. The crowd is going to be in a frenzy and the Sooners are not worthy of their current ranking. Missou wins this one outright. LOCK IT UP
Auburn -6 vs. LSU - This is a carbon copy of the Iowa game for us. We've been pumping Auburn all year and can't stop now, even if the spread scares us a bit. The magic for the maniacal Les Miles has to end at some point. Plus, LSU just can't score. Home field is going to be huge here but not as huge as Auburn's huge QB. The Tigers (the ones from Auburn) make a statement with this win and firmly entrench themselves in the BCS discussion. The other Tigers slink home to the swamp wondering how they got this far with George Jefferson at QB, LOCK IT UP
North Carolina +6.5 @ Miami - UNC is coming around after a disastrous start to the season. Miami is way too up and down to command this line against a streaking team. LOCK IT UP
One Star Special:
Washington +6.5 @ Arizona - Zona just lost starting QB Nick Foles for this game. He's been a huge force in their early season success. There is going to be some fall off to their backup. Washington is up and down and frustrating. But they're talented too with one of the premier QBs in the West. This is just too many points. Who knows who wins but we know its close. Take the points. LOCK IT UP
Monday, October 18, 2010
A Non-Gambling Plea
The Locksmith is no fan of Joe Girardi. He never has been but his dismay in the manager's apparent lack of ability to manage has reached a fever pitch over the past few months. This is now only further enhanced by the recent spate of articles claiming Girardi a genius for intentionally not winning the American League East. Those writers should forfeit their number 2 pencils post-haste.
The latest Girardi debacles have centered around his unwillingness to put any base runners in motion during the first two games of the Yanks-Rangers series. In Game 1, when runs were tough to come by and post-season newbie CJ Wilson was ripe for some distraction, the two fastest Yankees both got on base in each of their first two plate appearances. Granderson on first with Gardner up - not even a throw drawn to first base. Gardner walks and moves Grandy up to second - again, no movement. Two innings later. Granderson on first - not a throw to first. Gardner grounds into a force out. Now Gardner on first with Jeter up - no movement. Jeter rolls into DP. Game 2 provided similar options with the same potential benefit of rattling an average pitcher in one of his most meaningful career starts. Opportunity missed. This lack of a running game is maddening on its own - but when juxtaposed with the Rangers stealing bases and runs at will - just ask Elvis Andrus - it is excruciating to watch.
Game three and the rest of the series provides Girardi the opportunity to make a ballsy move and enhance the Yankee's chance for success. Sure this will be a bit of a shake-up but it would be done for the right reasons - not the wrong ones (see Torre dropping ARod to 7th in the order because he couldn't hit). The Locks suggests that Girardi flip-flop Mark Texeira and Robinson Cano in the batting order. Cano is as hot as can be at the moment and you want your most dangerous hitter batting third to take advantage of scoring opportunities. Too often in this series, Tex and ARod have ended rallies only to leave Robbie to lead off innings and his doubles and homers to lack maximum production. Look, we love Tex. Big, big Tex fan. But right now, this line-up is more dangerous with Cano behind Jeter and Grandy/Swisher and ahead of ARod. Tex can still do plenty of damage from the five hole - we're not suggesting benching the guy.
This would be a smart and gutsy move for Girardi to take advantage of Cano's hot bat. I guess those are the two biggest reasons you won't see it happen.
The latest Girardi debacles have centered around his unwillingness to put any base runners in motion during the first two games of the Yanks-Rangers series. In Game 1, when runs were tough to come by and post-season newbie CJ Wilson was ripe for some distraction, the two fastest Yankees both got on base in each of their first two plate appearances. Granderson on first with Gardner up - not even a throw drawn to first base. Gardner walks and moves Grandy up to second - again, no movement. Two innings later. Granderson on first - not a throw to first. Gardner grounds into a force out. Now Gardner on first with Jeter up - no movement. Jeter rolls into DP. Game 2 provided similar options with the same potential benefit of rattling an average pitcher in one of his most meaningful career starts. Opportunity missed. This lack of a running game is maddening on its own - but when juxtaposed with the Rangers stealing bases and runs at will - just ask Elvis Andrus - it is excruciating to watch.
Game three and the rest of the series provides Girardi the opportunity to make a ballsy move and enhance the Yankee's chance for success. Sure this will be a bit of a shake-up but it would be done for the right reasons - not the wrong ones (see Torre dropping ARod to 7th in the order because he couldn't hit). The Locks suggests that Girardi flip-flop Mark Texeira and Robinson Cano in the batting order. Cano is as hot as can be at the moment and you want your most dangerous hitter batting third to take advantage of scoring opportunities. Too often in this series, Tex and ARod have ended rallies only to leave Robbie to lead off innings and his doubles and homers to lack maximum production. Look, we love Tex. Big, big Tex fan. But right now, this line-up is more dangerous with Cano behind Jeter and Grandy/Swisher and ahead of ARod. Tex can still do plenty of damage from the five hole - we're not suggesting benching the guy.
This would be a smart and gutsy move for Girardi to take advantage of Cano's hot bat. I guess those are the two biggest reasons you won't see it happen.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
The Training Wheels Have Been Removed
So we have officially witnessed five full weeks of NFL action. We've seen each team play at least four games and have hopefully be able to form accurate opinions of the 32 franchises. Some are better than we expected. Others are worse. Very few are exactly what we thought they would be. Thus is the NFL in 2010. Anyone can beat any one on a day of the week. Most teams don't even remotely resemble the team they were a week ago or the team they'll be in a week. It is a topsy turvy world and we love it.
With all that babble behind us, we finally arrive at our point. With five games under our belt, the Locksmith is prepared to go on an impressive run of prognostication. It starts now:
Five Star Specials:
Jets @ Broncos - Line is Jets -3.5 - We hate to admit these types of things but the Jets are pretty good. We're simply going to sit back and ride their momentum. They are certainly 3.5 points better than the Broncos and their utter lack of a running game. This is the game that brings Kyle Orton back to earth. Take the New Jersey Pets to win and cover. 26-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Chiefs @ Texans - Line is Texans -4.5 - Who is this Houston Texan team? The group that steamrolled Indy opening week or the team that was steamrolled by Big Blue last Sunday? Most likely somewhere in the middle. And we're betting that it is closer to the steamrollee. The Chiefs on the other hand have made a fairly convincing case for who they are. A tough scrappy team with a stubborn defense and a challenged offense. That leads to many close, low scoring games during which a big play by a big play guy (e.g. McCluster, Arenas, Charles, etc.) is the difference. We'll take the known quantity and the points. Bet the Chiefs +4.5. Score is KC 20-17. LOCK IT UP.
Ravens @ Patriots - Line is Patriots -2.5 - This line doesn't make sense to us. Granted the game is in Foxboro but the Ravens might be the most complete team in the NFL. They have an excellent recent track record against the Pats (just look at their meeting in last year's playoffs). I understand that the genius of Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this game but they've also dealt Senor Moss in the meantime. We're highly dubious of New England defense. We like the Ravens to win outright but you get the added advantage of 2.5 points. Final score is Baltimore 38-33. LOCK IT UP
Falcons @ Eagles - Line is Eagles -2 - Atlanta is too complete a team to be an underdog to nearly anyone in the league - certainly not the Eagles. Philly has done nothing against legitimately solid teams yet this year. I see no basis for this line. The Falcons will pound away with Michael Turner and Ryan to White will work its way into the announcers' mouths at least 10 more times. The Hotlanta Defense is tough and will place quite a bit of pressure on Kevin Kolb. We expect the Falcons to win somewhat easily. Take the points. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Browns @ Steelers - Line is Steelers -14 - This is a very interesting game. Everyone thinks Big Douche Bag Ben is going to roll back into the lineup and the Steelers are going to be throwing up 40 points a game. We don't think the transition will be quite so seamless. That said, Cleveland is starting Colt McCoy against the Steelers defense in Pittsburgh. That is not going to go well. Plus the Browns' only legitimate offensive player (Peyton Hillis) is severely banged up. Cleveland is not likely to score a point in this game. That is enough to take Pittsburgh and lay the 2 TDs. Final score is 24-3. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Titans @ Jaguars - Line is Titans -2.5 - Simple analysis: The Jags stink. Don't look at their record or what they did last week to Buffalo. They stink. The Titans do not stink in any aspect of the game. That's worth at least 2.5 points. Take Tennessee and lay the points. Final score is 33-14. LOCK IT UP
Chargers @ Rams - Line is Chargers -9 - How many more games can the Chargers lose due to their inept special teams? That oddity needs to shift at some point, right? How many games can the Chargers lose with Philip Rivers throwing for 400 yards? This can't continue. Many things are working in SD's favor this week. Marcus McNeil returns to the offensive line. Ryan Mathews is another week healthier and ready to break through. The Rams most dangerous receiver is a little white guy named Danny. Do you sense where I am going? The Rams handed the Lions their first win of the year last week and it wasn't even close. We like the Chargers to win and cover the 9. Final score is 34-17. LOCK IT UP
Saints @ Buccaneers - Line is Saints -4.5 - We usually fall all over ourselves trying to bet home underdogs. In this case, we're even more ecstatic. The Saints are not the same team without even a semblance of a threat of a running attack. A defensive minded team like TB will exploit that one-dimensional limitation. Add to that the confidence that Josh Freeman is playing with and this feels like a game that is going down to the final whistle. The Bucs might not win but they'll battle hard. We'll take the home team and the 4.5 points. Final score is 24-23 Saints. LOCK IT UP
Lions @ Giants - Line is Giants -10 - Call us a big old homer, we don't mind. We think Coughlin and his coaching staff have figured something out in the past few weeks and this team is rallying around each other. Eli is continuing his maturation into one of the most dependable QBs in the league and he has a 1-2 receiver set to rival any team in the league. Throw away the Lions blowout of the Rams last week for the aberration that it was. Detroit is improving but not enough to keep this one close in the New Giants Stadium. The G-Men keep on sacking opposing QBs and roll to an easy win. Take NY and give the 10. Final score is 34-14. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Raiders @ Niners - Line is Niners -7 - One of these weeks the Niners will show up and play to their "talent" level. All these Bay Area Niner fans really hope that this is the week. They just can't stomach the possibility of going 0-6 at the hands of their Cross-Bay rivals. However, the Raiders are the more solid team at this point. Not spectacular, not dynamic, but solid. They'll run the ball a bit, throwing it to Zach Miller a bit and let SeaBass drill 50 yard FGs all day long. Their D will be adequate. All this leaves me thinking that making a winless team a 7 point favorite is a really strange thing to do. Take OakTown and the 7 points. Final score is 22-20. LOCK IT UP
Seahawks @ Bears - Line is Bears -6 - The Bears are not that good. Certainly not 4-1 good. However, Julius Peppers is gnarly good. He's dominating games from the defensive side of the ball. Seattle just doesn't have the offense talent are intuition to deal with the Peppers factor. Being at home with a Jay Cutler looking for a big bounce back game to prove he is past his concussion is enough to get Chicago through this one. Take the Windy City Wingnuts and give Seattle the points. Final score is 23-13. LOCK IT UP
Dolphins @ Packers - Line is Packers -3.5 - Like the Saints, Green Bay is another team that is really being hurt by its inability to mount any sore of running game. Add the loss of several key players and the Packers are reeling a bit. Not surprisingly, all the pundits are hot on Miami this week. We're going to play contrarian in this game. Rodgers worked all week to get cleared to play in this game. He's looking to prove something and Greg Jennings is out to show all his fantasy owners that he has not been kidnapped and replaced by Bernard Berrian. The Packers show some home team pride and get a much needed win. The rest of the season might not be so bright but for one day Green Bay is back on top. Take the Pack and lay 3.5. Final score is 27-20. LOCK IT UP
One Star Specials:
Colts @ Redskins - Line is Colts -3 - This is a game of a few contradictions. The Colts have not looked good on the road but Peyton never plays badly in a nationally televised night game. The Colts can't stop run but the Skins have yet to establish their ability to run the ball. When in a situation like this where the answer seems difficult to discern, we always trust in Manning. Take the Colts and give the points. Final score is 30-24. LOCK IT UP
Cowboys @ Vikings - Line is Vikings -2 - Which QB will throw the last game changing interception in this game. That is all you need to know. Our money is on the great sexter, Brett "Cock and Balls" Favre. Take the Boys and the points. Final score is 26-23 Dallas. LOCK IT UP
With all that babble behind us, we finally arrive at our point. With five games under our belt, the Locksmith is prepared to go on an impressive run of prognostication. It starts now:
Five Star Specials:
Jets @ Broncos - Line is Jets -3.5 - We hate to admit these types of things but the Jets are pretty good. We're simply going to sit back and ride their momentum. They are certainly 3.5 points better than the Broncos and their utter lack of a running game. This is the game that brings Kyle Orton back to earth. Take the New Jersey Pets to win and cover. 26-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Chiefs @ Texans - Line is Texans -4.5 - Who is this Houston Texan team? The group that steamrolled Indy opening week or the team that was steamrolled by Big Blue last Sunday? Most likely somewhere in the middle. And we're betting that it is closer to the steamrollee. The Chiefs on the other hand have made a fairly convincing case for who they are. A tough scrappy team with a stubborn defense and a challenged offense. That leads to many close, low scoring games during which a big play by a big play guy (e.g. McCluster, Arenas, Charles, etc.) is the difference. We'll take the known quantity and the points. Bet the Chiefs +4.5. Score is KC 20-17. LOCK IT UP.
Ravens @ Patriots - Line is Patriots -2.5 - This line doesn't make sense to us. Granted the game is in Foxboro but the Ravens might be the most complete team in the NFL. They have an excellent recent track record against the Pats (just look at their meeting in last year's playoffs). I understand that the genius of Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this game but they've also dealt Senor Moss in the meantime. We're highly dubious of New England defense. We like the Ravens to win outright but you get the added advantage of 2.5 points. Final score is Baltimore 38-33. LOCK IT UP
Falcons @ Eagles - Line is Eagles -2 - Atlanta is too complete a team to be an underdog to nearly anyone in the league - certainly not the Eagles. Philly has done nothing against legitimately solid teams yet this year. I see no basis for this line. The Falcons will pound away with Michael Turner and Ryan to White will work its way into the announcers' mouths at least 10 more times. The Hotlanta Defense is tough and will place quite a bit of pressure on Kevin Kolb. We expect the Falcons to win somewhat easily. Take the points. Final score is 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Browns @ Steelers - Line is Steelers -14 - This is a very interesting game. Everyone thinks Big Douche Bag Ben is going to roll back into the lineup and the Steelers are going to be throwing up 40 points a game. We don't think the transition will be quite so seamless. That said, Cleveland is starting Colt McCoy against the Steelers defense in Pittsburgh. That is not going to go well. Plus the Browns' only legitimate offensive player (Peyton Hillis) is severely banged up. Cleveland is not likely to score a point in this game. That is enough to take Pittsburgh and lay the 2 TDs. Final score is 24-3. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Titans @ Jaguars - Line is Titans -2.5 - Simple analysis: The Jags stink. Don't look at their record or what they did last week to Buffalo. They stink. The Titans do not stink in any aspect of the game. That's worth at least 2.5 points. Take Tennessee and lay the points. Final score is 33-14. LOCK IT UP
Chargers @ Rams - Line is Chargers -9 - How many more games can the Chargers lose due to their inept special teams? That oddity needs to shift at some point, right? How many games can the Chargers lose with Philip Rivers throwing for 400 yards? This can't continue. Many things are working in SD's favor this week. Marcus McNeil returns to the offensive line. Ryan Mathews is another week healthier and ready to break through. The Rams most dangerous receiver is a little white guy named Danny. Do you sense where I am going? The Rams handed the Lions their first win of the year last week and it wasn't even close. We like the Chargers to win and cover the 9. Final score is 34-17. LOCK IT UP
Saints @ Buccaneers - Line is Saints -4.5 - We usually fall all over ourselves trying to bet home underdogs. In this case, we're even more ecstatic. The Saints are not the same team without even a semblance of a threat of a running attack. A defensive minded team like TB will exploit that one-dimensional limitation. Add to that the confidence that Josh Freeman is playing with and this feels like a game that is going down to the final whistle. The Bucs might not win but they'll battle hard. We'll take the home team and the 4.5 points. Final score is 24-23 Saints. LOCK IT UP
Lions @ Giants - Line is Giants -10 - Call us a big old homer, we don't mind. We think Coughlin and his coaching staff have figured something out in the past few weeks and this team is rallying around each other. Eli is continuing his maturation into one of the most dependable QBs in the league and he has a 1-2 receiver set to rival any team in the league. Throw away the Lions blowout of the Rams last week for the aberration that it was. Detroit is improving but not enough to keep this one close in the New Giants Stadium. The G-Men keep on sacking opposing QBs and roll to an easy win. Take NY and give the 10. Final score is 34-14. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Raiders @ Niners - Line is Niners -7 - One of these weeks the Niners will show up and play to their "talent" level. All these Bay Area Niner fans really hope that this is the week. They just can't stomach the possibility of going 0-6 at the hands of their Cross-Bay rivals. However, the Raiders are the more solid team at this point. Not spectacular, not dynamic, but solid. They'll run the ball a bit, throwing it to Zach Miller a bit and let SeaBass drill 50 yard FGs all day long. Their D will be adequate. All this leaves me thinking that making a winless team a 7 point favorite is a really strange thing to do. Take OakTown and the 7 points. Final score is 22-20. LOCK IT UP
Seahawks @ Bears - Line is Bears -6 - The Bears are not that good. Certainly not 4-1 good. However, Julius Peppers is gnarly good. He's dominating games from the defensive side of the ball. Seattle just doesn't have the offense talent are intuition to deal with the Peppers factor. Being at home with a Jay Cutler looking for a big bounce back game to prove he is past his concussion is enough to get Chicago through this one. Take the Windy City Wingnuts and give Seattle the points. Final score is 23-13. LOCK IT UP
Dolphins @ Packers - Line is Packers -3.5 - Like the Saints, Green Bay is another team that is really being hurt by its inability to mount any sore of running game. Add the loss of several key players and the Packers are reeling a bit. Not surprisingly, all the pundits are hot on Miami this week. We're going to play contrarian in this game. Rodgers worked all week to get cleared to play in this game. He's looking to prove something and Greg Jennings is out to show all his fantasy owners that he has not been kidnapped and replaced by Bernard Berrian. The Packers show some home team pride and get a much needed win. The rest of the season might not be so bright but for one day Green Bay is back on top. Take the Pack and lay 3.5. Final score is 27-20. LOCK IT UP
One Star Specials:
Colts @ Redskins - Line is Colts -3 - This is a game of a few contradictions. The Colts have not looked good on the road but Peyton never plays badly in a nationally televised night game. The Colts can't stop run but the Skins have yet to establish their ability to run the ball. When in a situation like this where the answer seems difficult to discern, we always trust in Manning. Take the Colts and give the points. Final score is 30-24. LOCK IT UP
Cowboys @ Vikings - Line is Vikings -2 - Which QB will throw the last game changing interception in this game. That is all you need to know. Our money is on the great sexter, Brett "Cock and Balls" Favre. Take the Boys and the points. Final score is 26-23 Dallas. LOCK IT UP
A Late Night Call to Gambling Immortality
As Jimmy Hendrix, Bob Dylan and the boys in U2 have been known to croon when belting out All Along the Watchtower, the hour is getting late. Sure, this can be considered an 11th hour posting that doesn't serve the interests of our gambling followers. On the contrary, the Locksmith would assert that we have taken all due caution in surveying the college football landscape and selected only the Prime Grade A beef (appropriate reference as we have just taken down a nice bone-in NY strip at Ruth's Chris courtesy of Senor Borton; a NY strip being even more appropriate following the Yankees improbable Game 1 victory over the Rangers) college football winners. So with no further ado, please find your winners for tomorrow. As all sophisticated followers of the Locks have already surmised, you want to avoid any of our 3 Star Specials. We just can't seem to get those right.
Five Star Special:
Iowa @ Michigan - Line is Iowa -3.5 - We're once again featuring Iowa as our 5 star special. That is how much we like this team. We think the Hawkeyes are legitimately a top 5 team in the country and fully expect them to beat Ohio State and run the table in the Big 10. This game is nothing but a minor speed bump on that path. Michigan has performed very well this year against modest competition. Now that the schedule is increasing in difficulty, we're seeing the Wolverine's cracks - especially on the defensive side of the ball. Iowa will have no problem dominating this game - even though we hate taking road teams in the Big Ten. Iowa is simply an exception to all the rules. They have only played one bad half of football all year. This is a BCS bowl team. LOCK THAT UP. Iowa wins 34-23. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Illinois @ Michigan State - Line is Michigan State -7 - Michigan State feels like a special team this season. From the Little Giants OT play to beat Notre Dame to their coaches' heart attack. These guys have some pixie dust sprinkled on their nuts. They'll eventually get derailed but it is going to take a better team than Illinois to do so and it is not going to happen in East Lansing. Illinois is not that bad but this is not a favorable matchup. Take the Spartans and give 7. Final score is 27-13. LOCK IT UP
California @ USC - Line is USC -2.5 - We've been talking about and waiting for the USC explosion all season. Guess what, everyone gets tired of playing the fool and waiting for something that just ain't happening. Kiffin doesn't have the talent and his players just don't care that much. The Cal Bears - who always seem to sexually assault the Locks - will take advantage on all accounts and get a rare win down in the Rose Bowl. That's right - Cal will win this game outright. Take the Bears and take the 2.5 points. Final score is 38-33. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Oregon State @ Washington - Line is Washington -2 - The Locks just simply loves the Oregon State Beavers and we ain't apologizing for it. Once Fall sets in in the Pacific Northwest, the Beavers start kicking the shit out of people. This team has faced two top 5 teams (Boise State and TCU) and learned from those contests. Sure they are down one of the Rodgers brothers but we suggest that one Rodgers is enough against the over-hyped, under-delivering Huskies. Jake Locker has watched his Heisman and number #1 overall pick in the draft be usurped by his Pac-10 rival Dr. Luck. He's not necessarily responding in the best possible way. He better turn it on or risk a Jimmy Clausen-type slide in the next draft. But that is getting ahead of ourselves. What matters is that Oregon State will win this game and you can win money by taking the points. It's the Beavers +2. Final score is 31-28. LOCK IT UP
Boise State @ San Jose State - Line is Boise State - 41 - We said it last week and we're sticking to our guns - we're riding the Boise State Theorem until the end of the season. That simply means take the Broncos and collect your money. No line is too big because Boise needs the style points. Take the Broncos and lay the points. Final score 65-13. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Ohio State @ Wisconsin - Line is Ohio State -4 - Man we love this Buckeye team. They are unreal on defense - really impressive. Plus they have that guy Pryor who decides to take over games every now and then. That said, there are a few really good Big 10 teams that will make the Ohio State road difficult this year - especially on the road. Wisconsin and its fans are amped up for this game. The Badgers have the running attack to dominate time of possession, wear down the Buckeyes and keep the ball out of the hands and legs of Terrell Pryor. Home field will be huge in this game as it lifts up the Badgers and induces two or three ill-timed false starts by the Buckeyes O-line. This is going to be a slug fest and Wisconsin will hang right in with the #1 team in the country. We're not ready to predict the outright upset but this line is too big. Take Wisconsin and the four points. Final score is 30-27. LOCK IT UP
Five Star Special:
Iowa @ Michigan - Line is Iowa -3.5 - We're once again featuring Iowa as our 5 star special. That is how much we like this team. We think the Hawkeyes are legitimately a top 5 team in the country and fully expect them to beat Ohio State and run the table in the Big 10. This game is nothing but a minor speed bump on that path. Michigan has performed very well this year against modest competition. Now that the schedule is increasing in difficulty, we're seeing the Wolverine's cracks - especially on the defensive side of the ball. Iowa will have no problem dominating this game - even though we hate taking road teams in the Big Ten. Iowa is simply an exception to all the rules. They have only played one bad half of football all year. This is a BCS bowl team. LOCK THAT UP. Iowa wins 34-23. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Illinois @ Michigan State - Line is Michigan State -7 - Michigan State feels like a special team this season. From the Little Giants OT play to beat Notre Dame to their coaches' heart attack. These guys have some pixie dust sprinkled on their nuts. They'll eventually get derailed but it is going to take a better team than Illinois to do so and it is not going to happen in East Lansing. Illinois is not that bad but this is not a favorable matchup. Take the Spartans and give 7. Final score is 27-13. LOCK IT UP
California @ USC - Line is USC -2.5 - We've been talking about and waiting for the USC explosion all season. Guess what, everyone gets tired of playing the fool and waiting for something that just ain't happening. Kiffin doesn't have the talent and his players just don't care that much. The Cal Bears - who always seem to sexually assault the Locks - will take advantage on all accounts and get a rare win down in the Rose Bowl. That's right - Cal will win this game outright. Take the Bears and take the 2.5 points. Final score is 38-33. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Oregon State @ Washington - Line is Washington -2 - The Locks just simply loves the Oregon State Beavers and we ain't apologizing for it. Once Fall sets in in the Pacific Northwest, the Beavers start kicking the shit out of people. This team has faced two top 5 teams (Boise State and TCU) and learned from those contests. Sure they are down one of the Rodgers brothers but we suggest that one Rodgers is enough against the over-hyped, under-delivering Huskies. Jake Locker has watched his Heisman and number #1 overall pick in the draft be usurped by his Pac-10 rival Dr. Luck. He's not necessarily responding in the best possible way. He better turn it on or risk a Jimmy Clausen-type slide in the next draft. But that is getting ahead of ourselves. What matters is that Oregon State will win this game and you can win money by taking the points. It's the Beavers +2. Final score is 31-28. LOCK IT UP
Boise State @ San Jose State - Line is Boise State - 41 - We said it last week and we're sticking to our guns - we're riding the Boise State Theorem until the end of the season. That simply means take the Broncos and collect your money. No line is too big because Boise needs the style points. Take the Broncos and lay the points. Final score 65-13. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Ohio State @ Wisconsin - Line is Ohio State -4 - Man we love this Buckeye team. They are unreal on defense - really impressive. Plus they have that guy Pryor who decides to take over games every now and then. That said, there are a few really good Big 10 teams that will make the Ohio State road difficult this year - especially on the road. Wisconsin and its fans are amped up for this game. The Badgers have the running attack to dominate time of possession, wear down the Buckeyes and keep the ball out of the hands and legs of Terrell Pryor. Home field will be huge in this game as it lifts up the Badgers and induces two or three ill-timed false starts by the Buckeyes O-line. This is going to be a slug fest and Wisconsin will hang right in with the #1 team in the country. We're not ready to predict the outright upset but this line is too big. Take Wisconsin and the four points. Final score is 30-27. LOCK IT UP
Saturday, October 9, 2010
NFL Week 5 - Quick Hitters
Five Star Specials:
Falcons -3 @ Browns
Four Star Specials:
Texans -3 vs. Giants
Chargers -6.5 @ Raiders
Jets -4 vs. Vikings
Three Star Specials:
Jaguars +1.5 @ Bills
Bears +2.5 @ Panthers
Cowboys -7 vs. Titans
Ravens -7 vs. Broncos
Two Star Specials:
Lions -3 vs. Rams
Bucs +6.5 @ Bengals
Packers -2.5 @ Redskins
Eagles +3.5 @ 49ers
One Star Specials:
Chiefs +7.5 @ Colts
Cardinals +7 vs. Saints
Falcons -3 @ Browns
Four Star Specials:
Texans -3 vs. Giants
Chargers -6.5 @ Raiders
Jets -4 vs. Vikings
Three Star Specials:
Jaguars +1.5 @ Bills
Bears +2.5 @ Panthers
Cowboys -7 vs. Titans
Ravens -7 vs. Broncos
Two Star Specials:
Lions -3 vs. Rams
Bucs +6.5 @ Bengals
Packers -2.5 @ Redskins
Eagles +3.5 @ 49ers
One Star Specials:
Chiefs +7.5 @ Colts
Cardinals +7 vs. Saints
Friday, October 8, 2010
Snuffing Out the Analysis Paralysis
One of the most agonizing parts of being the Locksmith is going back and re-reading the analysis of a game that we predicted incorrectly. It is on par with receiving your annual property tax bill in the mail or running out of propane halfway through cooking a beercan chicken. It's just not fun - especially when you write something along the lines of "on paper, this game has Nebraska blowout written all over it" but then suggest that the correct gambling play is to take Kansas State +11. So then when you watch SportsCenter and see that Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez ran for 241 yards and Nebraska did indeed blow out KSU, both on paper and on the field, you feel a bit like a Lloyd Christmas speaking with an Australian accent to a hot Austrian.
That was a long way of saying that we are doing away with our highly valuable "analysis" for the week and simply offering up winners with the occasional minor pearl of wisdom. If this doesn't work then we might just begin having this site redirect to Gambler's Anonymous. LOCK IT UP!
Five Star Special:
Boise State -39 vs. Toledo - We're officially riding the Theorem (the Boise State Theorem, that is) every single week for the rest of the season. LOCK IT UP!
Four Star Specials:
Northwestern -9 vs. Purdue - Big rebound game from Northwestern against a middling Boilermaker squad. LOCK IT UP!
Michigan State +4.5 @ Michigan - Too many points to lay with a UM team whose defense can't stop anyone. Also major rivalry game that Spartans have dominated of late. LOCK IT UP!
Stanford -9.5 vs. USC - Talented, deep and fundamentally sounds vs. talented, lacking in depth and incapable of grasping concept of fundamentals. I'll take the former. Stanford takes out anger over Oregon dismantling on the most hated team in the Pac-10. LOCK IT UP!
Three Star Specials:
Tennessee +11 @ Georgia - How is Georgia still being favored by this many points? What have they proven this year beyond the fact that they are wildly overrated. A loss vs. Colorado? Really? LOCK IT UP!
Florida State +6 @ Miami - Another major rivalry game that typically plays close. In those instances, we take the points. Jacory Harris will turn the ball over enough to keep the Seminoles right in it. LOCK IT UP!
Oregon -36.5 @ Washington State - WSU is one of the two worst football teams in America (keep trying to avoid eye contact New Mexico). Oregon is beating good teams by 36. That settles that. LOCK IT UP!
Auburn -6.5 @ Kentucky - For better or worse the Tigers are a team the Locks' has fallen in love with. Kentucky is blowoutable (new word created by the Locks). LOCK IT UP!
Two Star Specials:
NC State -10 vs. Boston College - BC is woeful. NC State is solid. Only question is how NC State rebounds after tough loss to Va Tech. LOCK IT UP!
Oregon State +8 @ Arizona - This is the time of year that Oregon State typically goes on a run and starts to climb the rankings. Plus, those Rodgers brothers are just too much fun not to root for. LOCK IT UP!
That was a long way of saying that we are doing away with our highly valuable "analysis" for the week and simply offering up winners with the occasional minor pearl of wisdom. If this doesn't work then we might just begin having this site redirect to Gambler's Anonymous. LOCK IT UP!
Five Star Special:
Boise State -39 vs. Toledo - We're officially riding the Theorem (the Boise State Theorem, that is) every single week for the rest of the season. LOCK IT UP!
Four Star Specials:
Northwestern -9 vs. Purdue - Big rebound game from Northwestern against a middling Boilermaker squad. LOCK IT UP!
Michigan State +4.5 @ Michigan - Too many points to lay with a UM team whose defense can't stop anyone. Also major rivalry game that Spartans have dominated of late. LOCK IT UP!
Stanford -9.5 vs. USC - Talented, deep and fundamentally sounds vs. talented, lacking in depth and incapable of grasping concept of fundamentals. I'll take the former. Stanford takes out anger over Oregon dismantling on the most hated team in the Pac-10. LOCK IT UP!
Three Star Specials:
Tennessee +11 @ Georgia - How is Georgia still being favored by this many points? What have they proven this year beyond the fact that they are wildly overrated. A loss vs. Colorado? Really? LOCK IT UP!
Florida State +6 @ Miami - Another major rivalry game that typically plays close. In those instances, we take the points. Jacory Harris will turn the ball over enough to keep the Seminoles right in it. LOCK IT UP!
Oregon -36.5 @ Washington State - WSU is one of the two worst football teams in America (keep trying to avoid eye contact New Mexico). Oregon is beating good teams by 36. That settles that. LOCK IT UP!
Auburn -6.5 @ Kentucky - For better or worse the Tigers are a team the Locks' has fallen in love with. Kentucky is blowoutable (new word created by the Locks). LOCK IT UP!
Two Star Specials:
NC State -10 vs. Boston College - BC is woeful. NC State is solid. Only question is how NC State rebounds after tough loss to Va Tech. LOCK IT UP!
Oregon State +8 @ Arizona - This is the time of year that Oregon State typically goes on a run and starts to climb the rankings. Plus, those Rodgers brothers are just too much fun not to root for. LOCK IT UP!
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Rule #1 Strikes Back
So two Thursdays ago we made the ill-fated decision to dust off the Locks' good ole college football betting Rule #1. We spit shined that thing, placed it on a velvet pillow and watched a line form around the block just to catch a glimpse. Unfortunately for the Locks, Rule #1 experienced less success than a wasted Joe Namath trying to slip Suzy Kolber the tongue on national television. For those of you who don't recall, and quite frankly, why would you, Rule #1 states that you always take the points and a home dog on a Thursday night ESPN game. The home crowd is in a frenzy as this is always the home team's biggest game of the year. The players on the lesser team are super amped to strut their stuff on national television. The road favorites come out a little tight and give the crowd more material to feed off of. It just always turns into a buzz saw for the visitor. They may win, but they never cover. Well almost never. See, nobody told the Pittsburgh Panthers that they were a road dog two weeks ago. Nobody told their fans they were expected to make things tough on the Miami Hurricanes. Most importantly, nobody told the Panthers' offense when the game was because they weren't there. OK, vent over.
The outcome of that Pitt-Miami game is enough to make your average man question some things about himself. Alas, the Locksmith is no average man. In fact, he is now even more determined to prove the mettle of Rule #1. Step right up Kansas State. You have been nominated to carry the torch for Absolute Locks!
Three Star Special:
Nebraska @ Kansas State - Line is Nebraska -11 - Do not get us wrong, there is no comparison between these two teams. From a talent standpoint, the Cornhuskers are on another level. They likely have the single most frightening defense in the country. They have big-time playmakers on the D Line, in the linebacking crew and the secondary. They are scary good as evidenced by their 12.8 average points against. On the other side of the ball, Bo Pelini has created an almost equally scary offense run by dual-threat freshman QB Taylor Martinez. That kid can run and run and run. And Kansas State can't stop the run, the run, the run. On paper, this has Nebraska blowout written all over it.
However, you forget that this is not about players or talent or paper. This is about Rule #1 and that means you take Kansas State and the points. The students in Manhattan (Kansas, that is) will turn this into one of the most hostile environments of the college football season. Not necessarily the place I want to be trusting a freshman QB. It only helps that KSU comes into this game undefeated - it gives the delusional fans even more reason to think this is the game of their lives. A muffed punt by Nebraska here and a redzone Cornhusker turnover there and the Wildcats will be hanging tough all the way through this contest. We don't think that Kansas State wins this game outright, but they keep it close enough to make a winner out of you if you take the points. Bet KSC +11. Final score is 27-17 Nebraska. LOCK IT UP
The outcome of that Pitt-Miami game is enough to make your average man question some things about himself. Alas, the Locksmith is no average man. In fact, he is now even more determined to prove the mettle of Rule #1. Step right up Kansas State. You have been nominated to carry the torch for Absolute Locks!
Three Star Special:
Nebraska @ Kansas State - Line is Nebraska -11 - Do not get us wrong, there is no comparison between these two teams. From a talent standpoint, the Cornhuskers are on another level. They likely have the single most frightening defense in the country. They have big-time playmakers on the D Line, in the linebacking crew and the secondary. They are scary good as evidenced by their 12.8 average points against. On the other side of the ball, Bo Pelini has created an almost equally scary offense run by dual-threat freshman QB Taylor Martinez. That kid can run and run and run. And Kansas State can't stop the run, the run, the run. On paper, this has Nebraska blowout written all over it.
However, you forget that this is not about players or talent or paper. This is about Rule #1 and that means you take Kansas State and the points. The students in Manhattan (Kansas, that is) will turn this into one of the most hostile environments of the college football season. Not necessarily the place I want to be trusting a freshman QB. It only helps that KSU comes into this game undefeated - it gives the delusional fans even more reason to think this is the game of their lives. A muffed punt by Nebraska here and a redzone Cornhusker turnover there and the Wildcats will be hanging tough all the way through this contest. We don't think that Kansas State wins this game outright, but they keep it close enough to make a winner out of you if you take the points. Bet KSC +11. Final score is 27-17 Nebraska. LOCK IT UP
Saturday, October 2, 2010
NFL Week 4
Quick Picks for this Sunday:
Five Stars:
Indianapolis Colts -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars
Four Stars:
Carolina Panthers +13 over New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over Washington Redskins
Three Stars:
Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 over SF 49ers
New York Jets -6 over Buffalo Bills
New England -1 over Miami Dolphins
Two Stars:
Detroit Lions +14 over Green Bay Packers
Oakland Raiders +3.5 over Houston Texans
Chicago Bears +3.5 over New York Giants
One Star:
Arizona Cardinals +9.5 over San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams +2 over Seattle Seahawks
Tennessee Titans -6.5 over Denver Broncos
Five Stars:
Indianapolis Colts -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars
Four Stars:
Carolina Panthers +13 over New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over Washington Redskins
Three Stars:
Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 over SF 49ers
New York Jets -6 over Buffalo Bills
New England -1 over Miami Dolphins
Two Stars:
Detroit Lions +14 over Green Bay Packers
Oakland Raiders +3.5 over Houston Texans
Chicago Bears +3.5 over New York Giants
One Star:
Arizona Cardinals +9.5 over San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams +2 over Seattle Seahawks
Tennessee Titans -6.5 over Denver Broncos
Friday, October 1, 2010
Wolkpacks, Hawkeyes and Buckeyes, Oh My!
We're looking to rebound harder this week in the college football department than an insecure high school cheerleader who just got dumped by her abusive football playing boyfriend. Look out and LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Virginia Tech @ NC State - Line is Va Tech -3.5 - We love the home underdog, especially when you can argue that it is the better team playing in the game. NC State has been a revelation this season playing solid defense that applies pressure on opposing QBs (5th in the country in sacks per game), causing turnovers, scoring points (just under 38 points per game), moving the ball easily through the air and protecting the pigskin. Most importantly, they are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) this season. A team this fundamentally sound should not be a home dog unless they're being visited by a top 10 team. Va Tech is not a Top 10 team. They have the talent and had a shot to be one, but blew that chance with its early season efforts against Boise State and James Madison. The team has rebounded nicely in recent weeks including last week's shutout of Boston College. However, this will be the best team the Hokies have faced since opening weekend. Va Tech has not really shown the top notch defense and special teams that have come to epitomize a Frank Beamer team. We just can't help ourselves in snatching the points in this game. Take NC State and 3.5 points. The Wolfpack win this game outright. 27-20. LOCK IT UP
Penn State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -7 - Last season we screamed from the mountaintops about just how overrated we thought the Nitzy Lions were. That team's inability to cover nearly even spread regardless of opponent supported our beliefs. Well this a new season but not a new Penn State crew. We just as underwhelmed by this team as we were by last year's edition. They have a middling offense that does most things decently but nothing great. That isn't going to work against the country's #3 rush defense and #21 pass defense. Yards, and more importantly, points, will be hard to come by for Penn State. That issue will only be exacerbated by playing at Iowa. The Hawkeyes ran into an absolute buzz saw in Arizona two weeks and still almost came all the way back to beat a solid Wildcat squad. We think Iowa receive the wake-up call loud and clear and now has its sites set on a potential Big 10 title. We're really looking forward to the Iowa-Ohio State collision later this season. But for that game to really matter, the Hawkeyes need to continue to take care of business - which they will on Saturday. Lay the 7 points and roll with Iowa. Final score is 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Illinois - Line is Ohio State -17 - Speaking of Ohio State - this team is damn nasty. We got burned last week picking against them under the belief they wouldn't run up the score on poor Eastern Michigan. A dozen Terrell Pryor touchdowns later (passing, rushing and receiving) and Ohio State looked more like the 2007 Patriots than the conservative Jim Tressel squad we've come to know. Sure this is a big number on the road in conference. We just think the Buckeyes are that good in every aspect of the game (3rd in the country in scoring, 5th in rushing defense, 7th in total turnovers, etc., etc.) The team is 4-0 ATS this season covering lines of 28, 30 and 44.5 along the way. Then there is Illinois. An average team that can run the ball a little bit but is prone to turning it over as well. They've spent the past two weeks beating up on their in-state brethren (Northern Illinois and Southern Illinois). Something tells us those games didn't prepare them for Ohio State. Lay the points with confidence. Take OSU -17. Final score is 45-17. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Wisconsin @ Michigan State - Over/Under is 54 - Here's our first O/U pick of the season and we love it. It's a tough Big Ten battle between two teams that want to run the ball. The problem there is that both teams are pretty darn tough to run against. This game should be a grind with the clock running nearly all the time. Michigan State is giving up just over 17 points a game with Wisconsin surrounding even less - just over 14 per contest. As long as this doesn't go to overtime, the O/U should never be tested. Take the Under as this game is played to a 24-23 Wisconsin win. LOCK IT UP
Arizona State @ Oregon State - Over/Under is 55 - We liked that last O/U so much we decided to do it again. Except, this time we're taking an Over in a game we expect to be a shootout. AZ State is average 36 points a game and the Beavers are surrendering more than 31. On the other side of the ball, the electrifying Rodgers brothers are good for a few TDs each. The Over has hit in each of Oregon State's last five games dating back to last season and it has paid in four of the past five showdowns between these two teams (the fifth was actually a push). To think that the Wis/MichSt O/U is all the way at 54 and this one is only 55 seems rather odd to the Locksmith. That's great - oddities often pay handsomely. These two teams just can't drive 55. Take the Over. Final score is 38-33 Oregon State. LOCK IT UP
Northwestern @ Minnesota - Line is Northwestern -5.5 Northwestern's Dan Persa is one of the finest dual threat quarterbacks in the country and will cause headaches for the Gophers marginal defense all game long. Minny has lost its last three games - all at home - and this is shaping up to be a lost season in their beautiful new stadium. Quite the opposite for Northwestern as they continue to make noise as an up-and-comer in the Big Ten. This is a key game for them in those efforts and we think Persa leads the way to a convincing victory. Take Northwestern and lay the 5.5 points. Final score is 33-23. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Special:
Tennessee @ LSU - Line is LSU -16.5 - We know that Tennessee stinks and that they have no depth but we just can't understand LSU being a 16.5 point favorite in any SEC game with George Jefferson at QB. He is abysmal. He is putrid. He has brought JaMarcus Russell back to LSU. The Tiger offense can simply not be counted on to be even remotely productive. Their defense is top-notch but oh that offense is offensive to our sensibilities. We take umbrage at that offense. Have we made our point? We think that the Volunteers figure out how to score about 13 garbage points and that will be enough to bust this ridiculous spread. Take Tennessee and the points. LSU wins 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Virginia Tech @ NC State - Line is Va Tech -3.5 - We love the home underdog, especially when you can argue that it is the better team playing in the game. NC State has been a revelation this season playing solid defense that applies pressure on opposing QBs (5th in the country in sacks per game), causing turnovers, scoring points (just under 38 points per game), moving the ball easily through the air and protecting the pigskin. Most importantly, they are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) this season. A team this fundamentally sound should not be a home dog unless they're being visited by a top 10 team. Va Tech is not a Top 10 team. They have the talent and had a shot to be one, but blew that chance with its early season efforts against Boise State and James Madison. The team has rebounded nicely in recent weeks including last week's shutout of Boston College. However, this will be the best team the Hokies have faced since opening weekend. Va Tech has not really shown the top notch defense and special teams that have come to epitomize a Frank Beamer team. We just can't help ourselves in snatching the points in this game. Take NC State and 3.5 points. The Wolfpack win this game outright. 27-20. LOCK IT UP
Penn State @ Iowa - Line is Iowa -7 - Last season we screamed from the mountaintops about just how overrated we thought the Nitzy Lions were. That team's inability to cover nearly even spread regardless of opponent supported our beliefs. Well this a new season but not a new Penn State crew. We just as underwhelmed by this team as we were by last year's edition. They have a middling offense that does most things decently but nothing great. That isn't going to work against the country's #3 rush defense and #21 pass defense. Yards, and more importantly, points, will be hard to come by for Penn State. That issue will only be exacerbated by playing at Iowa. The Hawkeyes ran into an absolute buzz saw in Arizona two weeks and still almost came all the way back to beat a solid Wildcat squad. We think Iowa receive the wake-up call loud and clear and now has its sites set on a potential Big 10 title. We're really looking forward to the Iowa-Ohio State collision later this season. But for that game to really matter, the Hawkeyes need to continue to take care of business - which they will on Saturday. Lay the 7 points and roll with Iowa. Final score is 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Ohio State @ Illinois - Line is Ohio State -17 - Speaking of Ohio State - this team is damn nasty. We got burned last week picking against them under the belief they wouldn't run up the score on poor Eastern Michigan. A dozen Terrell Pryor touchdowns later (passing, rushing and receiving) and Ohio State looked more like the 2007 Patriots than the conservative Jim Tressel squad we've come to know. Sure this is a big number on the road in conference. We just think the Buckeyes are that good in every aspect of the game (3rd in the country in scoring, 5th in rushing defense, 7th in total turnovers, etc., etc.) The team is 4-0 ATS this season covering lines of 28, 30 and 44.5 along the way. Then there is Illinois. An average team that can run the ball a little bit but is prone to turning it over as well. They've spent the past two weeks beating up on their in-state brethren (Northern Illinois and Southern Illinois). Something tells us those games didn't prepare them for Ohio State. Lay the points with confidence. Take OSU -17. Final score is 45-17. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Wisconsin @ Michigan State - Over/Under is 54 - Here's our first O/U pick of the season and we love it. It's a tough Big Ten battle between two teams that want to run the ball. The problem there is that both teams are pretty darn tough to run against. This game should be a grind with the clock running nearly all the time. Michigan State is giving up just over 17 points a game with Wisconsin surrounding even less - just over 14 per contest. As long as this doesn't go to overtime, the O/U should never be tested. Take the Under as this game is played to a 24-23 Wisconsin win. LOCK IT UP
Arizona State @ Oregon State - Over/Under is 55 - We liked that last O/U so much we decided to do it again. Except, this time we're taking an Over in a game we expect to be a shootout. AZ State is average 36 points a game and the Beavers are surrendering more than 31. On the other side of the ball, the electrifying Rodgers brothers are good for a few TDs each. The Over has hit in each of Oregon State's last five games dating back to last season and it has paid in four of the past five showdowns between these two teams (the fifth was actually a push). To think that the Wis/MichSt O/U is all the way at 54 and this one is only 55 seems rather odd to the Locksmith. That's great - oddities often pay handsomely. These two teams just can't drive 55. Take the Over. Final score is 38-33 Oregon State. LOCK IT UP
Northwestern @ Minnesota - Line is Northwestern -5.5 Northwestern's Dan Persa is one of the finest dual threat quarterbacks in the country and will cause headaches for the Gophers marginal defense all game long. Minny has lost its last three games - all at home - and this is shaping up to be a lost season in their beautiful new stadium. Quite the opposite for Northwestern as they continue to make noise as an up-and-comer in the Big Ten. This is a key game for them in those efforts and we think Persa leads the way to a convincing victory. Take Northwestern and lay the 5.5 points. Final score is 33-23. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Special:
Tennessee @ LSU - Line is LSU -16.5 - We know that Tennessee stinks and that they have no depth but we just can't understand LSU being a 16.5 point favorite in any SEC game with George Jefferson at QB. He is abysmal. He is putrid. He has brought JaMarcus Russell back to LSU. The Tiger offense can simply not be counted on to be even remotely productive. Their defense is top-notch but oh that offense is offensive to our sensibilities. We take umbrage at that offense. Have we made our point? We think that the Volunteers figure out how to score about 13 garbage points and that will be enough to bust this ridiculous spread. Take Tennessee and the points. LSU wins 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Thursday, September 30, 2010
A Team Misnamed and Then Mistreated
pres.tige (pre-stezh', -stej') n. 1. The level of respect at which one is regarded by others; standing. 2. Prominence, honor, or distinction. -- pres.ti'gious, adj.
world.wide (wurld'wid') adj. Involving or extending throughout the world; universal.
I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but isn't this the most inappropriately named team (softball or otherwise) in the history of competitive athletics? Perhaps these Ph.D.s and their fondness for dating/marrying pigs, believed it was opposite day when they pooled their brain power and selected this team name. Clearly opposite day is the only way to explain how they didn't settle on a more accurate name along the lines of Dishonor Locally or Complete Lack of Distinction In Just This Immediate Area. That said, I'm willing to bet that "Hooked on Phonics" never found its way into the living rooms of any of these geniuses. Whatever the mistake may have been, this evening these slow adults will be made to feel the magnitude of their error.
And when it comes to errors, this crew is no stranger - on the field or off. For starters, who holds team drinking meetings at Tahoe Joe's? It's one thing to take the wife and kid there for a nice steak or cocktail - but entirely another to establish that location as the home of a softball team. Strike one. Publicly consuming fruity cocktails garnished with umbrellas? Strike two with no fouls left. Talking shit about a team that absolutely throttled you in your last meeting, a team that demoralized your motor-mouthed douche-bag pitcher to the point where he was either yelling or crying into his glove on the mound, a team that hung an 8-spot on you before you even picked up a bat? Strike Fucking Three.
Instead of using this space to provide some puffed-up prediction of excellence, we'll simply offer the following:
There is nothing prestigious about banging pigs and muffing ground balls and the only thing that will travel worldwide tonight is the stench of another disgusting display of softball delivered by the old PW.
world.wide (wurld'wid') adj. Involving or extending throughout the world; universal.
I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but isn't this the most inappropriately named team (softball or otherwise) in the history of competitive athletics? Perhaps these Ph.D.s and their fondness for dating/marrying pigs, believed it was opposite day when they pooled their brain power and selected this team name. Clearly opposite day is the only way to explain how they didn't settle on a more accurate name along the lines of Dishonor Locally or Complete Lack of Distinction In Just This Immediate Area. That said, I'm willing to bet that "Hooked on Phonics" never found its way into the living rooms of any of these geniuses. Whatever the mistake may have been, this evening these slow adults will be made to feel the magnitude of their error.
And when it comes to errors, this crew is no stranger - on the field or off. For starters, who holds team drinking meetings at Tahoe Joe's? It's one thing to take the wife and kid there for a nice steak or cocktail - but entirely another to establish that location as the home of a softball team. Strike one. Publicly consuming fruity cocktails garnished with umbrellas? Strike two with no fouls left. Talking shit about a team that absolutely throttled you in your last meeting, a team that demoralized your motor-mouthed douche-bag pitcher to the point where he was either yelling or crying into his glove on the mound, a team that hung an 8-spot on you before you even picked up a bat? Strike Fucking Three.
Instead of using this space to provide some puffed-up prediction of excellence, we'll simply offer the following:
- A true Bushman knows what is at stake tonight.
- A true Bushman realizes that his credibility, his manhood, his very essence has been publicly called into question by a boy sipping a lady's drink.
- A true Bushman knows that the only way to right the wrong that has been exacted upon him is to dominate, disrespect, demoralize and debase the offending party.
There is nothing prestigious about banging pigs and muffing ground balls and the only thing that will travel worldwide tonight is the stench of another disgusting display of softball delivered by the old PW.
LOCK IT UP!
Saturday, September 25, 2010
NFL Week 3
Time to hit our NFL stride. Week 3 is chock full of winners:
Five Star Specials:
Steelers (-3) @ Tampa Bay - The Steel Curtain brings Mr. Freeman back to earth. Charlie Batch (gulp) does just enough to cover the spread. Pittsburgh wins 13-6. LOCK IT UP
Bengals (-3.5) @ Carolina - Clausen may turn things around for the Panthers, eventually. He's in for a rude awakening on Sunday against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league. Look for Ced Ben to finally have a big day. Cincy prevails 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Lions (+11.5) @ Minnesota - The Lions have proven to be an improved team capable of hanging in games - just ask the Eagles and Bears. With that passing attack, how can the Vikings be giving anyone 11.5 points? Take the points. Final score is 24-20 Vikings. LOCK IT UP
Cowboys (+2.5) @ Houston - If the Cowboys don't show up this week, then the Locks may bet against them every week the rest of the way. The Texans loss of their All-Pro tackle Duane Brown weakens their line just as the Cowboys welcome a few injured O lineman back. This is an under appreciated angle in this game. We think Dallas wins outright, 31-27. LOCK IT UP
Jets (+2) @ Miami - This defense is too good (even without Revis) to be underdogs in many games. This is not one of them. Jets win this game 24-17. LOCK IT UP
Packers (-3) @ Chicago - We've seen a lot of analyst calling for the upset here. We're on the other side wondering why this line is so tiny. The Bears still have a very suspect offensive line and that is something that Dom Capers will exploit. Pack cruises to a 31-20 victory. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Titans (+3) @ NY Giants - Both these teams have played one solid game and one bad game. Not sure what to make of either one. In that case, we'll take the points. Giants win a nail-biter, 24-23. LOCK IT UP
Patriots (-14.5) vs. Bills - The latest version of the Ryan Fitzpatrick era will fare just the same as the older models - miserably. This is one big number that won't scare us off. The Pats own the Bills, even when they aren't the leagues most dysfunctional unit. NE crushes the spirit of people in Buffalo (assuming that any spirit remains) with a 38-13 throttling. LOCK IT UP
Jags (+3) vs. Eagles - Forget the Vick hype. The real story is how well the Jaguars play at home in front on empty seats masquerading as fans. Plus, has anyone seen the Eagles defense yet this season? Not good. We like the home dog here, not to win outright though. Final score is 28-27 Philly. LOCK IT UP
Colts (-6) @ Broncos - Earlier in the week, we were prepared to take the Broncos and the points. Then a guy on their team killed himself and then Knowshon Moreno pulled a hammy and then the secondary looked like it was going to be starting walk-on freshman and then and then and then....... I don't need any more reasons to back Peyton Manning. Colts roll 31-14 in the Mile High. LOCK IT UP
Ravens (-10.5) vs. Browns - Like many other folks, we've been a bit miffed by the Browns early season struggles. Football is better when Cleveland is competitive and if you can't beat TB or KC, you're not competitive. A victory for the Browns this week will be forcing the scoreboard operator to change the 0 next to their name. Ravens finally get on track offensively - I'm looking at you Ray Rice. Play like you graduated from Rutgers for Christ's Sake. Take Baltimore in a 27-6 beating. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Saints (-4) vs. Falcons - People are getting a bit down on New Orleans because they've played close games the first few weeks. So much so that they are predicting their demise this week. Guess what. Ain't gonna happen. Not in the Superdome. This is the week that Brees goes off for 400 yards and 4 TDs. Discount him at your own peril. Saints make a big statement at home 34-20. LOCK IT UP.
Rams (+3.5) vs. Redskins - Sometimes we just play a hunch and take a home dog for no good reason. The Rams are going to win some games this year and the Skins are coming off a tough loss at home. By the way, have you noticed that Clinton Portis is stiffer than Bernie (as in Weekend at Bernie's - not Bernie Kosar)? Steve Spagnuolo will discount the run and bring the house at McNabb. Just enough pressure to sneak out a win. Take the points and watch the Rams pull the upset. Final score is St. Louie 20-17. LOCK IT UP
Seahawks (+5) vs. Chargers - Another home dog that we've got a feeling about. Qwest Field is one of the toughest places for visitors to play. The Chargers are a bit overrated following a beating of a team that never really made the trip out west (what else is new with the Jags). Seattle won't win but they'll be in this game until the end. Take the points as Chargers squeak one out in Seattle, 30-28. LOCK IT UP
One Star Specials:
Chiefs (+3) vs. 49ers - We're playing the contrarian here as everyone we've seen thinks the Niners will just roll in this game. We like the home field advantage and we're not buying Alex Smith based on one drive on Monday Night Football. Remember, we have four years of film that says that Smith is essentially Tim Couch. Keep the magic Chiefs' train rolling. KC wins 20-17. LOCK IT UP
Cardinals (-4) vs. Raiders - Raiders stink. It's amazing that Jason Campbell (Al Davis' second coming of Jim Plunkett) didn't even make it through 2 games as the Oakland starting QB. What a mess. Speaking of mess, the Cardinals are also playing in this game. They stink too but they are at home and we think their defense might be a tad better than Oakland's (probably not an opinion shared by most). Beanie Wells also looks to return and we think he helps alleviate some of the pressure on Derek Anderson. For one week, the Cardinals quiet the calls for Kurt Warner to get kicked off of Dancing with the Stars and return to Phoenix. Take Zona to win 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Five Star Specials:
Steelers (-3) @ Tampa Bay - The Steel Curtain brings Mr. Freeman back to earth. Charlie Batch (gulp) does just enough to cover the spread. Pittsburgh wins 13-6. LOCK IT UP
Bengals (-3.5) @ Carolina - Clausen may turn things around for the Panthers, eventually. He's in for a rude awakening on Sunday against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league. Look for Ced Ben to finally have a big day. Cincy prevails 27-17. LOCK IT UP
Four Star Specials:
Lions (+11.5) @ Minnesota - The Lions have proven to be an improved team capable of hanging in games - just ask the Eagles and Bears. With that passing attack, how can the Vikings be giving anyone 11.5 points? Take the points. Final score is 24-20 Vikings. LOCK IT UP
Cowboys (+2.5) @ Houston - If the Cowboys don't show up this week, then the Locks may bet against them every week the rest of the way. The Texans loss of their All-Pro tackle Duane Brown weakens their line just as the Cowboys welcome a few injured O lineman back. This is an under appreciated angle in this game. We think Dallas wins outright, 31-27. LOCK IT UP
Jets (+2) @ Miami - This defense is too good (even without Revis) to be underdogs in many games. This is not one of them. Jets win this game 24-17. LOCK IT UP
Packers (-3) @ Chicago - We've seen a lot of analyst calling for the upset here. We're on the other side wondering why this line is so tiny. The Bears still have a very suspect offensive line and that is something that Dom Capers will exploit. Pack cruises to a 31-20 victory. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Titans (+3) @ NY Giants - Both these teams have played one solid game and one bad game. Not sure what to make of either one. In that case, we'll take the points. Giants win a nail-biter, 24-23. LOCK IT UP
Patriots (-14.5) vs. Bills - The latest version of the Ryan Fitzpatrick era will fare just the same as the older models - miserably. This is one big number that won't scare us off. The Pats own the Bills, even when they aren't the leagues most dysfunctional unit. NE crushes the spirit of people in Buffalo (assuming that any spirit remains) with a 38-13 throttling. LOCK IT UP
Jags (+3) vs. Eagles - Forget the Vick hype. The real story is how well the Jaguars play at home in front on empty seats masquerading as fans. Plus, has anyone seen the Eagles defense yet this season? Not good. We like the home dog here, not to win outright though. Final score is 28-27 Philly. LOCK IT UP
Colts (-6) @ Broncos - Earlier in the week, we were prepared to take the Broncos and the points. Then a guy on their team killed himself and then Knowshon Moreno pulled a hammy and then the secondary looked like it was going to be starting walk-on freshman and then and then and then....... I don't need any more reasons to back Peyton Manning. Colts roll 31-14 in the Mile High. LOCK IT UP
Ravens (-10.5) vs. Browns - Like many other folks, we've been a bit miffed by the Browns early season struggles. Football is better when Cleveland is competitive and if you can't beat TB or KC, you're not competitive. A victory for the Browns this week will be forcing the scoreboard operator to change the 0 next to their name. Ravens finally get on track offensively - I'm looking at you Ray Rice. Play like you graduated from Rutgers for Christ's Sake. Take Baltimore in a 27-6 beating. LOCK IT UP
Two Star Specials:
Saints (-4) vs. Falcons - People are getting a bit down on New Orleans because they've played close games the first few weeks. So much so that they are predicting their demise this week. Guess what. Ain't gonna happen. Not in the Superdome. This is the week that Brees goes off for 400 yards and 4 TDs. Discount him at your own peril. Saints make a big statement at home 34-20. LOCK IT UP.
Rams (+3.5) vs. Redskins - Sometimes we just play a hunch and take a home dog for no good reason. The Rams are going to win some games this year and the Skins are coming off a tough loss at home. By the way, have you noticed that Clinton Portis is stiffer than Bernie (as in Weekend at Bernie's - not Bernie Kosar)? Steve Spagnuolo will discount the run and bring the house at McNabb. Just enough pressure to sneak out a win. Take the points and watch the Rams pull the upset. Final score is St. Louie 20-17. LOCK IT UP
Seahawks (+5) vs. Chargers - Another home dog that we've got a feeling about. Qwest Field is one of the toughest places for visitors to play. The Chargers are a bit overrated following a beating of a team that never really made the trip out west (what else is new with the Jags). Seattle won't win but they'll be in this game until the end. Take the points as Chargers squeak one out in Seattle, 30-28. LOCK IT UP
One Star Specials:
Chiefs (+3) vs. 49ers - We're playing the contrarian here as everyone we've seen thinks the Niners will just roll in this game. We like the home field advantage and we're not buying Alex Smith based on one drive on Monday Night Football. Remember, we have four years of film that says that Smith is essentially Tim Couch. Keep the magic Chiefs' train rolling. KC wins 20-17. LOCK IT UP
Cardinals (-4) vs. Raiders - Raiders stink. It's amazing that Jason Campbell (Al Davis' second coming of Jim Plunkett) didn't even make it through 2 games as the Oakland starting QB. What a mess. Speaking of mess, the Cardinals are also playing in this game. They stink too but they are at home and we think their defense might be a tad better than Oakland's (probably not an opinion shared by most). Beanie Wells also looks to return and we think he helps alleviate some of the pressure on Derek Anderson. For one week, the Cardinals quiet the calls for Kurt Warner to get kicked off of Dancing with the Stars and return to Phoenix. Take Zona to win 24-13. LOCK IT UP
Friday, September 24, 2010
Breakout Saturday - The Day College Acted Appropriately
After watching the Pitt Panthers put forth perhaps the most futile effort of the 2010 college football season last evening - essentially defecating upon Rule #1 and then taking it on toilet swim Trainspotting style - it would be natural to assume that the Locks is suffering from a crisis of confidence. Assume at your own peril. All that Thursday night defeat did was get our single losing prognostication of the weekend out of the way early. We're now ready to tackle this Saturday's slate of games with the same manic confidence of Ray Lewis filling a gap on the goal line. The winners are about to come fast and furious so start making plans for your Monday morning payout pickup with your bookie of choice.
Five Star Special:
Stanford @ Notre Dame - Line is Stanford -4.5 - This line has been bouncing around a little bit all week. It started at 3.5, moved up to 5 and now has settled back at 4.5. The Locks says that it doesn't matter. We're comfortable with this line all the way up to 7 points. We absolutely love this game. Stanford looks like a juggernaut on both sides of the ball and you can't look anywhere this week without seeing Mel Kiper anoint Andrew Luck as the best NFL QB prospect in the country. The only reason this line is as small as it is is due to ND’s name. Question: Just how much longer can these guys live on reputation? Answer: As long as delusional ND fans are willing to lose money by backing this mediocre program. ND has beaten an above average team in quite some time. That feeble mark of ineptitude shall continue on Saturday. Look for Stanford to take care of business and continue its climb up the polls. Take Stanford and give 4.5 points. Final score is 38-23. LOCK IT UP.
Four Star Specials:
West Virginia @ LSU - Line is LSU -10 - Look, we're well aware of how difficult LSU is to beat at home on Saturday night. We're also well aware of how many times the Tigers have absolutely killed the Locks' gambling mojo over the past few years. There is no one player that we have pulled for more and - in turn - been disappointed by on a daughter going into porn level than LSU QB Jordon Jefferson. At this point, we think Mr. Jefferson's white neighbor (Harry Bentley for those of you in the know) - who is dead, incidentally, would give the LSU offensive more of a spark.
For an offense that can't move the ball, 10 points is just too big of a line. Don't forget that WVU is no slouch (though they have also killed the Locks at an extraordinary rate in recent seasons). They have a great RB (Noel Devine) and solid QB (Gino Smith). That is enough to control their share of the game clock and keep this game close. Do we think the mighty LSU will be beaten in the swamp on Saturday night? Probably not. Will they blowout the Mountaineers? Absolutely not. Take WVU and the 10 points. Final score is 24-20. LOCK IT UP.
UCLA @ Texas - Line is Texas -15.5 - Before any of you nitwits get yourself worked up into a frenzy about the Bruins blowout of the Houston Cougars last week and their "dynamic" pistol offense, I must warn you to settle down. Sure we picked against UCLA last week and got knocked around like a fat nerd at recess. That said, the Bruins beat up on a Houston team that is notorious for not playing well against teams outside of its pathetic conference. Plus, Houston had to play a majority of the game with its third string freshman QB. Let's get some perspective. UCLA still stinks to high heaven and they won't have the home crowd on a nationally televised game to pick them up this week. Texas will not be confused by the pistol and this should be the weak that the Longhorns' offense finally gets on track. We're expecting that UT is ready to put a fat nerd recess beating on someone. Watch out UCLA, this Saturday you are a fat nerd at recess - wearing an ALF t-shirt. Take Texas, give points (15.5). Final score is 41-17. LOCK IT UP
Three Star Specials:
Alabama @ Arkansas - Line is Bama -7 - There is a ton of chatter this week about the Razorbacks and their chances for knocking off #1. Thus is the 24-hour sports media hype machine. They need something outrageous to talk about and we file the possibility of Arkansas winning this game under the label of Outrageous. Look, the hogs are a good team and Ryan Mallet is continuing to demonstrate why he is one of the best QBs in the country. However, should we really be that impressed with a team that needed a last minute TD to knock off a reeling Georgia team and who has otherwise only beaten Tennessee Tech and Louisiana Monroe? This is Alabama we're talking about. The clear-cut best team in the country even as it plays without some of its best players. Bama gets healthier each week as All-Americans return to its lineup. They will get challenged at some point along the way this year, but this week is way too obvious of a potential "upset" for Alabama to come out flat or disinterested. We just don't see this game being all that close once the clock runs out. The Arkansas crowd may carry the Razorbacks for a quarter or two but far superior talent will win out in this one. Take Bama and give the 7 points. Final score is 48-28. LOCK IT UP.
Oregon State @ Boise State We've waited a few weeks to unleash the Theorem this season but it feels like the time is right. For those uninitiated of you out there, the Theorem posits that Boise State will cover any line, no matter how large. The primary tenet of this theorem is the proposition that Boise State must always prove to its critics that it belongs with the big boys. The only way to do this when you play a sub-par schedule is to throttle your opponents. Whereas top teams from power conferences may be content sitting on a 24 point lead in the 3rd quarter and thus not cover a big spread, Boise State has the accelerator on the floor for four full quarters, week in and week out. We're never scared of a big number when it comes to the Broncos - even if those shifty Rodgers brothers are on the opposing team. Oregon State is one of the best teams that Boise will play this year and that is all the more reason for the Theorem to be at work. An impressive win here erases any speculation about the Va Tech win in week 1 and puts everyone on notice. Plus, they're playing on the Blue Turf. You have no choice but to subscribe to the Theorem. Take BSU and give 18.5 points. Final score is 45-23. LOCK IT UP.
Two Star Specials:
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio State - Line is Ohio State -44.5 - We love Ohio State and have supported them each week this season. We still love them and think that they will demolish Eastern Michigan. That said, unlike the Boise State-Oregon State game, this contest plays as an anti-Theorem battle. Will Ohio State be up by 44.5 points during this game. Yes. Will Eastern Michigan be demoralized? Double Yes. However, it is the final score that matters here, not the score at the half. Ohio State is not a team interested in embarrassing its opponents by running up the score - they never have been. So expect to see the third string Buckeyes getting snaps as early as the third quarter. This opens the door for some garbage time points from Eastern Michigan. 44.5 is a tremendous number of points to cover in football. You need to play pretty much flawlessly and have an opponent not be able to do anything. Even then, a fluke play here or there and you don't cover. We're betting that Ohio State calls off the dogs early enough to allow the Eagles to bust this spread. Take Eastern Michigan and all of those points. Final score is 51-10. LOCK IT UP
California @ Arizona - Line is Arizona -6.5 - We're trying to not overreact too much to last week's Iowa-Arizona game. In fact, with such an impressive performance, Arizona is bound for a letdown this week. However, we were just too impressed with this Arizona team. Playmakers all over the field, on both sides of the ball and special teams. A crowd that hopefully was not a one-game wonder. Even when Iowa clawed all the way back into last week's game and had all the momentum, the crowd and the Cats stayed poised and marched down the field against an elite defense. Very impressive. What is not impressive is California's patented move of demolished cupcakes in the season's opening weeks, teasing its fans into thinking they can play ball and then getting absolutely smoked by decent teams. This problem is especially acute on the road. They'll keep this close for a while as Arizona works to combat the potential letdown. However, once the second half kicks off, Cal will seem as if it is already on the bus back to Berkeley. Take Jocks (Arizona) over the Nerds (Cal) and you can even give limp-wristed Lamar and his cronies 6.5 points. Final score is 40-23. LOCK IT UP
Thursday, September 23, 2010
The Debut of College Football Rule #1
It's taken us two weeks to finally concede that the Locks' college football gambling Rule #1 is just about as fool-proof as it gets. For those new comers or regulars with short term memory issues due to excessive drug use, Rule #1 states that you take the points offered to a home underdog in a nationally televised Thursday night game. This rule proved insanely profitable last season and is off to an excellent start already this year (just ask Cincinnati). More often than not, these nationally televised games are viewed as the biggest game of the year for these home dogs and, more importantly, their inebriated student sections. The result is a team playing way over its head, a raucous crowd presenting unique problems for the road favorite and some good old fashioned home town bounces. So, armed with the sense of invulnerability that is offered by Rule #1, were provide Week 4s first Absolute Lock:
Four Star Special:
Miami @ Pittsburgh - Line is Miami -4 - The fact that Miami is the road favorite in this game makes us feel even better about Rule #1 - if that was even possible. Has there been a team in recent years more associated with unbelievable letdowns in games they were supposed to win handily (you're lucky I can't see you right now LSU and Georgia Tech)? Jacory Harris better be careful or the stink of that underachieving label may never scrub off your legs and right arm. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is a tough blue collar team with an elite RB and a coach that has been steadily making progress with this program. Pitt is eager to erase the taste of feces that lingers from its season opening OT loss at Utah (also on Thursday night). Fortunately for them, ESPN provides the Panthers and the fans the opportunity to do just that tonight. From the Locks' perspective, these are fairly evenly matched teams. As such, Rule #1 guides this entire decision. Pitt may not win but if they don't, they'll keep it tighter than four points. Take the Panthers and the points. Thank the Locks and Rule #1. Final score is 28-27 PITTSBURGH!!!! LOCK IT UP!!
Four Star Special:
Miami @ Pittsburgh - Line is Miami -4 - The fact that Miami is the road favorite in this game makes us feel even better about Rule #1 - if that was even possible. Has there been a team in recent years more associated with unbelievable letdowns in games they were supposed to win handily (you're lucky I can't see you right now LSU and Georgia Tech)? Jacory Harris better be careful or the stink of that underachieving label may never scrub off your legs and right arm. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is a tough blue collar team with an elite RB and a coach that has been steadily making progress with this program. Pitt is eager to erase the taste of feces that lingers from its season opening OT loss at Utah (also on Thursday night). Fortunately for them, ESPN provides the Panthers and the fans the opportunity to do just that tonight. From the Locks' perspective, these are fairly evenly matched teams. As such, Rule #1 guides this entire decision. Pitt may not win but if they don't, they'll keep it tighter than four points. Take the Panthers and the points. Thank the Locks and Rule #1. Final score is 28-27 PITTSBURGH!!!! LOCK IT UP!!
Saturday, September 18, 2010
NFL Week 2 Picks
5 Star Special:
Packers (-13) over Bills
4 Star Specials:
Vikings (-5.5) over Dolphins
Panthers (-3.5) over Buccaneers
Jets (+3) over Patriots
Saints (-5) over 49ers
3 Star Specials:
Bengals (+2.5) over Ravens
Cowboys (-7.5) over Bears
Lions (+6.5) over Eagles
Giants (+5) over Colts
Chargers (-7) over Jaguars
2 Star Specials:
Cardinals (+6.5) over Falcons
Steelers (+5) over Titans
Redskins (+3) over Texans
Seahawks (+3.5) over Broncos
1 Star Specials:
Browns (-2) over Chiefs
Rams (+3.5) over Raiders
Packers (-13) over Bills
4 Star Specials:
Vikings (-5.5) over Dolphins
Panthers (-3.5) over Buccaneers
Jets (+3) over Patriots
Saints (-5) over 49ers
3 Star Specials:
Bengals (+2.5) over Ravens
Cowboys (-7.5) over Bears
Lions (+6.5) over Eagles
Giants (+5) over Colts
Chargers (-7) over Jaguars
2 Star Specials:
Cardinals (+6.5) over Falcons
Steelers (+5) over Titans
Redskins (+3) over Texans
Seahawks (+3.5) over Broncos
1 Star Specials:
Browns (-2) over Chiefs
Rams (+3.5) over Raiders
Friday, September 17, 2010
Make Your Real Money on Saturday
It's Friday. We've got a job. We've got shit to do. Yet Absolute Locks won't write itself. So we've reassessed my priorities and proudly present you with your Week 3 college football winners and the common thread for nearly all of these picks makes me cringe (road favorites - YIKES):
5 Star Special:
Iowa @ Arizona - Line is a Pick Em - For the second week in a row we're featuring the Iowa Hawkeyes in our 5 star special. Amazing to the Locks, this line has move quite a bit in recent days. In fact, we locked in our wager yesterday when Iowa was still a 1.5 point favorite. We're kicking ourselves for that now but love this pick even more with the Hawkeyes only needing to win outright. Iowa's defense is absolutely nasty, it can run the ball on anyone and it has a competent, experienced QB. If those are the keys to winning college football games, then I don't know what I think I know. Arizona is a solid squad with a potentially explosive offense. They are also playing at home. These facts must account for the line movement. That said, if any team can come into this hostile territory and not be rattled, it is the battle-tested, even-keel Iowa Hawkeyes. We absolutely love Iowa to win this game. Take Iowa. Final score is 27-21. LOCK IT UP!
4 Star Specials:
Nebraska @ Washington - Line is Nebraska -3 - We really must have a death wish as we're suggesting backing another road favorite in a venue that is notoriously difficult for visitors. The UW fans will be obnoxiously loud as usual and Jake Locker will be looking to make his first definitive Heisman statement of the year. All that aside, Bo has his Huskers back to being a team that others should not want to face. The defensive line of Nebraska will slow the Washington running game and put Jake in a Hurt Locker for most of this game. The dynamic Nebraska offense should also have no trouble putting up points against a defense that allowed the lowly Syracuse Orange to throw up a quick 10 spot on them last week. We like the Cornhuskers to head west and claim a big victory. Take Nebraska but buy .5 points to get this thing under a FG. Huskers (-2.5). Final score 34-31 Nebraska. LOCK IT UP!
Houston @ UCLA - Line is Houston -3.5 - We're not hesitating to support a Houston team that may be without its Heisman candidate QB Case Keenum and which almost always disappoints when it plays against big conference opponents. Why are we doing this you might ask? Because UCLA is the equivalent of Sean Penn in Dead Man Walking. This team just got absolutely throttled at home vs. conference rival Stanford. If they can't get up for that game, then why on earth would we expect they could hang with another Top 25 team. Granted Keenum might be out with concussion symptoms but this Houston team has actually found a viable running game. There is nothing viable about Rick Neuheisel and the Bruins. Buy half a point here as well. Move the line to Houston (-3) and take the boys from Texas. The Bruins are in ruin. Final score is 38-31. LOCK IT UP!
3 Star Specials:
Florida @ Tennessee - Line is Florida -14 - This game being played in Knoxville can be the only justification for this ridiculously small line. Florida is ready to finally put a complete game together and show that they are not a middle-of-the-pack team in the SEC. More importantly, Tennessee is an obscenely young and wildly thin team. Sure, they might keep this competitive for a half but once the middle of the 3rd quarter rolls around, the Volunteers will be looking for volunteers to take some reps for them. At that point, the Gators will drop the hammer and run away with this thing. Don't overlook the fact that Tennessee also got brutally whipped last week at home by Oregon. We're not sure this team has what it takes to rebound very quickly from that humiliation. Take F-L-A and give the 2 TDs. Final score is 45-24. LOCK IT UP!
USC @ Minnesota - Line is USC -12 - This is a game that can make us look really silly. USC hasn't shown a whole lot to be impressed with yet this year and many are questioning if their heart is even in this season of bowl ineligibility. The Locks, for one, think the Trojans will start to fire on all cylinders one of these weeks and really turn some heads around the country. We're willing to bet this is the week that Lane Kiffin gets a full game out of his team. Minnesota has another one of those beautiful new stadiums that make it tough on visitors but they just don't have the talent to hang in this one. The Locks would also like to take this opportunity to remind you of our week 1 prediction that USC's RB Marc Tyler will be one the season's breakout stars. Look for a big game from Dr. Tyler on Saturday. Take the Trojans to butcher the Golden Gophers. Lay the 12 points. Final score is 48-27. LOCK IT UP!
Clemson @ Auburn - Line is Auburn -7 - Well I'll be dipped, the Locks finally likes a home team this week. Let's hope this is the right home team to like. As Friend of the Locks, Mark Borton knows all too well, the Locks loves this Auburn team. We can't quite put our finger on why but we do. They're tough. They're often overlooked in the talent-heavy SEC. They play a tough-hitting, angry defense and now finally have a legitimate talent at QB. Those all seem like decent reasons to love them. Then there is a Clemson, a team that has done nothing but disappoint the Locks in big spots over the past few seasons. Plus, we'll take SEC over ACC every day of the week. Especially when those little ACC humps are coming into SEC country. We are going to buy half a point here to get this under a TD. The game will be competitive but Auburn will finish the job. Take Auburn -6.5. Final score is 27-20. LOCK IT UP!
2 Star Specials:
Alabama @ Duke - Line is Bama -24
Notre Dame @ Michigan State - Line is MSU -3.5
We're lumping these two games together because the same gambling philosophy is at work in each of them. That philosophy involves continuing to bet a specific angle until it fails, regardless of what you think of the specific game. In the Bama game, the specific angle is that Bama is so much better than its opponents that it will continue to cover regardless of the line (a bastard child of the Boise State Theorem). Until they prove otherwise, we'll continue to ride the Tide (did we mention that Bama's backup RB benches 475 pounds and complains that the strength coach won't let him find out how much he can really throw up? Ridiculous). As for the Irish, the philosophy is very simple. They aren't as good as Vegas gives them credit for and never figures out how to come out on the right side of the number. Essentially, you can always make money betting against them. We wanted to pick against them last week vs. Michigan and got gun shy. We won't make that mistake again this week. We'll keep fighting against ND until they prove us wrong. Take Bama and MSU and lay the points in both games. Final scores are 48-17 Bama; 31-27 MSU. LOCK EM UP!
5 Star Special:
Iowa @ Arizona - Line is a Pick Em - For the second week in a row we're featuring the Iowa Hawkeyes in our 5 star special. Amazing to the Locks, this line has move quite a bit in recent days. In fact, we locked in our wager yesterday when Iowa was still a 1.5 point favorite. We're kicking ourselves for that now but love this pick even more with the Hawkeyes only needing to win outright. Iowa's defense is absolutely nasty, it can run the ball on anyone and it has a competent, experienced QB. If those are the keys to winning college football games, then I don't know what I think I know. Arizona is a solid squad with a potentially explosive offense. They are also playing at home. These facts must account for the line movement. That said, if any team can come into this hostile territory and not be rattled, it is the battle-tested, even-keel Iowa Hawkeyes. We absolutely love Iowa to win this game. Take Iowa. Final score is 27-21. LOCK IT UP!
4 Star Specials:
Nebraska @ Washington - Line is Nebraska -3 - We really must have a death wish as we're suggesting backing another road favorite in a venue that is notoriously difficult for visitors. The UW fans will be obnoxiously loud as usual and Jake Locker will be looking to make his first definitive Heisman statement of the year. All that aside, Bo has his Huskers back to being a team that others should not want to face. The defensive line of Nebraska will slow the Washington running game and put Jake in a Hurt Locker for most of this game. The dynamic Nebraska offense should also have no trouble putting up points against a defense that allowed the lowly Syracuse Orange to throw up a quick 10 spot on them last week. We like the Cornhuskers to head west and claim a big victory. Take Nebraska but buy .5 points to get this thing under a FG. Huskers (-2.5). Final score 34-31 Nebraska. LOCK IT UP!
Houston @ UCLA - Line is Houston -3.5 - We're not hesitating to support a Houston team that may be without its Heisman candidate QB Case Keenum and which almost always disappoints when it plays against big conference opponents. Why are we doing this you might ask? Because UCLA is the equivalent of Sean Penn in Dead Man Walking. This team just got absolutely throttled at home vs. conference rival Stanford. If they can't get up for that game, then why on earth would we expect they could hang with another Top 25 team. Granted Keenum might be out with concussion symptoms but this Houston team has actually found a viable running game. There is nothing viable about Rick Neuheisel and the Bruins. Buy half a point here as well. Move the line to Houston (-3) and take the boys from Texas. The Bruins are in ruin. Final score is 38-31. LOCK IT UP!
3 Star Specials:
Florida @ Tennessee - Line is Florida -14 - This game being played in Knoxville can be the only justification for this ridiculously small line. Florida is ready to finally put a complete game together and show that they are not a middle-of-the-pack team in the SEC. More importantly, Tennessee is an obscenely young and wildly thin team. Sure, they might keep this competitive for a half but once the middle of the 3rd quarter rolls around, the Volunteers will be looking for volunteers to take some reps for them. At that point, the Gators will drop the hammer and run away with this thing. Don't overlook the fact that Tennessee also got brutally whipped last week at home by Oregon. We're not sure this team has what it takes to rebound very quickly from that humiliation. Take F-L-A and give the 2 TDs. Final score is 45-24. LOCK IT UP!
USC @ Minnesota - Line is USC -12 - This is a game that can make us look really silly. USC hasn't shown a whole lot to be impressed with yet this year and many are questioning if their heart is even in this season of bowl ineligibility. The Locks, for one, think the Trojans will start to fire on all cylinders one of these weeks and really turn some heads around the country. We're willing to bet this is the week that Lane Kiffin gets a full game out of his team. Minnesota has another one of those beautiful new stadiums that make it tough on visitors but they just don't have the talent to hang in this one. The Locks would also like to take this opportunity to remind you of our week 1 prediction that USC's RB Marc Tyler will be one the season's breakout stars. Look for a big game from Dr. Tyler on Saturday. Take the Trojans to butcher the Golden Gophers. Lay the 12 points. Final score is 48-27. LOCK IT UP!
Clemson @ Auburn - Line is Auburn -7 - Well I'll be dipped, the Locks finally likes a home team this week. Let's hope this is the right home team to like. As Friend of the Locks, Mark Borton knows all too well, the Locks loves this Auburn team. We can't quite put our finger on why but we do. They're tough. They're often overlooked in the talent-heavy SEC. They play a tough-hitting, angry defense and now finally have a legitimate talent at QB. Those all seem like decent reasons to love them. Then there is a Clemson, a team that has done nothing but disappoint the Locks in big spots over the past few seasons. Plus, we'll take SEC over ACC every day of the week. Especially when those little ACC humps are coming into SEC country. We are going to buy half a point here to get this under a TD. The game will be competitive but Auburn will finish the job. Take Auburn -6.5. Final score is 27-20. LOCK IT UP!
2 Star Specials:
Alabama @ Duke - Line is Bama -24
Notre Dame @ Michigan State - Line is MSU -3.5
We're lumping these two games together because the same gambling philosophy is at work in each of them. That philosophy involves continuing to bet a specific angle until it fails, regardless of what you think of the specific game. In the Bama game, the specific angle is that Bama is so much better than its opponents that it will continue to cover regardless of the line (a bastard child of the Boise State Theorem). Until they prove otherwise, we'll continue to ride the Tide (did we mention that Bama's backup RB benches 475 pounds and complains that the strength coach won't let him find out how much he can really throw up? Ridiculous). As for the Irish, the philosophy is very simple. They aren't as good as Vegas gives them credit for and never figures out how to come out on the right side of the number. Essentially, you can always make money betting against them. We wanted to pick against them last week vs. Michigan and got gun shy. We won't make that mistake again this week. We'll keep fighting against ND until they prove us wrong. Take Bama and MSU and lay the points in both games. Final scores are 48-17 Bama; 31-27 MSU. LOCK EM UP!
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