Tuesday, October 6, 2009

162 Is Not Enough for the AL Central

For the second year in a row, the American League Central has decided that it needs its own day to bask in the glow of attention from baseball fans from coast to coast. While all five other divisions were able to crown a winner in the standard 162-game schedule, the AL Central has two mediocre teams battling for the the division crown and the opportunity to slay the Yankee dragon in the first round of the playoffs. As if we weren't excited enough for the MLB playoffs, we're treated to a tasty Tuesday appetizer. We're going to consider this postseason game #1 as we work to throw up a 65% winning percentage in the playoffs and World Series.

Unpickable Master Locks - MLB Postseason:

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins - There appear to be just too many things going against the Tigers at the moment. For starters, the Twins are the much hotter team both from the hitting and pitching perspective. Baseball is a game of streaks more than any other sport and it always helps to be on a roll heading into an important game. Secondly, the Metrodome is one of the toughest places for opponents to play in the majors - and that was before today presented the possibility of this being the last game ever to be played in this venue. The fans are not going to be interested in this being the last stand for the hefty bag. Third, Joe Mauer - enough said. Fourth, Miguel Cabrera won't be playing with a BAC of .26 for the Tigers which should theoretically be a good thing. However, the controversy surrounding the alleged drunk wife-beater is an added hurdle for the Tigers to overcome. Fifth, you just have no idea how a 20-year old (Ricky Porcello) is going to fare in a game of this magnitude. There is simply no track record for him personally. However, I'd be a bit concerned about him being a bit swallowed up in the moment.

Now, don't get me wrong, there are things to like if you are a Tiger fan. Detroit has historically hit Scott Baker pretty well. Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen are both hitting him at better than .400 with a significant number of at bats. Curtis Granderson (4 HRs) and Marcus Thames (5 HRs) have shown power against the Minnesota righthander. Additionally, Porcello has not had much trouble with the Twins lineup yet this year. He has a 3.09 ERA against the Twinkies and just held them to 1 run over 6+ innings last week. Plus, the Tigers do have Jim Leyland in their dugout.

All that said, we just don't see the Tigers getting up off the mat after a knock-out Sept/Oct. Minny has big MO on its side and if they hold a lead through 7 innings at home, Joe Nathan will nail down the W. We're picking the Twins to take this game and then pack their bags for a trip East. Take Minnesota (-167) to win 5-3. LOCK IT UP

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