What a game the Twins and Tigers treated us to as our little warm up for the 2009 MLB postseason. Let's hope the rest of the playoffs are half as exciting as that game - one of the best baseball games we can remember in some time. Here is the Locks' quick breakdown of the four opening round playoff series. We've also included our Game 1 predictions for each of the three series that kick off on Wednesday.
Colorado vs. Philadelphia - At first glance, the Phillies would seem to be the prohibitive favorites in this series. In fact, Vegas has them at a -165 favorite to win the series (the second biggest favorite in the four playoff battles). However, to our eye, there is a lot to like about the Rockies in this showdown. For one, we don't trust the Phillies pitching staff - neither the starters nor closer. Brad Lidge is a mess and it remains to be seen if he gets handed the ball in a big spot. The starters are Cliff Lee (limped to the season's finish line with a string of poor outings), Cole Hamels (limped throughout the entire season with poor outing after poor outing) and Joe Blanton (he is Joe Blanton). We also love the home field advantage that the Rocks will hold in games 3 and 4. That stadium and the fans do make a big difference in Colorado's favor. The Rocks are also streaking into the playoffs yet again. Momentum is something some don't value but we certainly do. Something just doesn't feel right about this Phillie team. We expect a split in games 1 and 2 and then the Rocks to take the next two in Denver.
The Locks Series Pick: Rockies in 4 (+145)
The Locks Game 1 Pick: Phillies -131
St. Louis vs. Los Angeles - Anyone who has been reading the Locks for any amount of time knows that we've been predicting a St. Louis/NY World Series since mid-summer. Nothing has happened to change our minds. This series and the Dodgers will be dominated by the right arms of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright (possible the two best righties in the NL). We really don't see any path to victory for Los Angeles - which will disappoint all the media outlets that want to see Joe Torre return to the Bronx for the World Series. The Cardinals will be up 2-0 before even setting foot in Busch Stadium for games 3 and 4. Let's not forget that St. Louie also has Fat Albert and Professor LaRussa. If they hit the ball even a little bit, this series will not be close. The Dodgers just haven't been very good since early summer.
The Locks Series Pick: Cardinals in 4 (-145)
The Locks Game 1 Pick: Cardinals -142
Minnesota vs. NY - What an enormous disadvantage for the Twins heading into game 1 of this series. They had to play a 12-inning one game playoff the day before the start of the playoffs. They burned through nearly their entire bullpen and must be spent physically and emotionally. Now they face big CC and the team with the best record in baseball. This Yankee team has the look of a champion and most importantly, everyone on this team seems possessed with the idea of becoming a champion. The Twins are a nice little team and certainly are a great story following their run to the playoffs. However, this isn't a fair fight. The Yanks will score plenty of runs and pitch well enough until its Mariano's turn to close the door.
The Locks Series Pick: Yankees in 3 (Line is -400)
The Locks Game 1 Pick: Yankees Line is -340
Boston vs. Los Angeles - This is really a great series for so many reasons. The best is that the teams match up so well. Add to that the simmering post season rivalry between these two which has been dominated of late by the BoSox. However, this is a bit of a different Angels team then the one that Beantown has dispatched in previous seasons. Namely, this Angels team can hit. We're not buying into the Red Sox dominance over the Angels as much as others in the media. We think these Angels are a confident bunch who don't care who they play. We also think the Red Sox are as vulnerable as they have been entering the post season in many years. The starting pitching, which many seem to think is a tremendous strength, looks a bit shaky. Beckett hasn't been his typical wonderful self this season and the Sox will be entrusting game 3 to the highly unproven Clay Buchholz. At the same time, Boston is going to be able to score runs on the Angels pitchers. The biggest question mark of this entire series will be Brian Fuentes who should not be closing any important games in the major leagues. He may cost LAA one game or more in this series. This is the most difficult of the four series to predict. It should be a great treat for true baseball fans. We see a split in Anaheim in games 1 and 2, a split in Boston in games 3 and 4 and a hard fought game five that the Angels take at home.
The Locks Pick: LAA in 5 (+115)
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