Gambling Rules for Thursday Night Football Plus Wins from a Favorite and a Dog

College football returns tonight with a double-dip and the Locks returns after a several day hiatus. We simply can't be bothered trying to pick meaningless baseball games during the last week of the regular season. Instead, we're gearing up for playoff baseball and boning up on football, both the collegiate and professional variety. We'll offer an MLB playoff preview once the seedings are all set but in the meantime, it is football time. We've seen all teams - both college and pro - play enough games at this point to get a solid read on who can do what. Now it is our time to kick it into overdrive and put together one of those famous Vegas blackjack runs. We'll be on fire for the next several weeks so come back often.

Unpickable Master Locks - CFL:

Colorado @ West Virginia - (Line is WVU -17) - This game places us firmly at the intersection of many, many gambling rules - several of which are contradicting each other. Here's a quick list:

• Rule #1 - It is advisable to take the points in prime time games. The underdog is often treating that game (which is often nationally televised) as their Super Bowl and they ratchet up the emotion dramatically. The favorite often has a difficult time matching that intensity. (This favors Colorado)

• Rule #2 - Before looking at the game line, analyze the game and the teams and come to a conclusion of how the game will play out. (We did this and settled on a WVU cakewalk - favors West Virginia)

• Rule #3 - Never, ever trust the West Virginia Mountaineers in a big, nationally televised game. (This favors Colorado)

• Rule #4 - Be wary of teams traveling far to play games. This seems to affect college kids much more than their pro counterparts. For those of you geographically-challenged folks, Morgantown is nowhere near Boulder. (This favors West Virginia)
  

In our estimation, West Virginia is the far superior team in this game. The Mountaineers racked up over 500 yards last week at Auburn and were in the game until the very last of the team's six turnovers (a hallmark of WVU). They feature Noel Devine in the backfield and that guys can run the football. On the other side of the ledger, the Colorado Buffaloes are struggling through a miserable start of the season. Not only did they lose a home opener to in-state rival Colorado St. but they also lost to Toledo. Fortunately, they got to face Wyoming last week and notched their first win of the season. All in all, this is a rather mediocre team that has done nothing to inspire confidence among their fans or gamblers at large.

All that said, here is a very interesting factoid. The spread in this game is 17. WVU has yet to beat anyone this season by 17 points including the un-powerhouse of Liberty. At the same time, as bad as Colorado has been this year, they have yet to lose by 17 points. At the end of the day, we put more stock in rules #1 and #3 above and think 17 is too many points.

The pick tonight is Colorado +17. LOCK IT UP

Southern Mississippi @ UAB - (Line is Southern Miss -9.5) - Rule #1 above comes into play in this game and is even amplified by the fact that the dog is a home dog (though this game will not have a national television audience). That adds a raucous crowd into the mix. However, we're just not buying UAB here. We're still mad at that team for knocking off Rice in week #1 and blowing one of our early season UMLs. Ever since that win, UAB has turned into a bunch of donkeys (e.g. ASSES). They have lost to Southern Methodist and Troy and were absolutely annihilated by Texas A&M just five days ago. This team is getting outscored by 8 points a game by rather pathetic competition. Even better, UAB is 0-9 all-time against Southern Miss, including a 70-14 beatdown last season.

We're not sure how much more we need to say after that previous paragraph but we will. We were impressed with the way that Southern Mississippi hung with a good Kansas team on the road last Saturday. They were in that game until the end and with a few bounces could be sitting at 4-0. They have a very balanced offensive that begins with a solid running game averaging over 200 yards per contest. They also don't turn the ball over very much. On the defensive side, they are giving up a respectable 22 points a game. This is a solid football team.

With all deference to Rule #1 above - a rule that we really, really believe in - we don't see this game being all that competitive. Certainly not competitive enough where UAB will be within 10 points at the final whistle.

The pick tonight is Southern Miss -9.5. LOCK IT UP