Friday, October 16, 2009

College Football Locks

Here are your three absolute locks for college football Saturday:

Unpickable Master Locks - CFL:

USC @ Notre Dame - Line is USC -10 - The reason this line is not bigger is that there are so many idiot Irish fans out there that Vegas doesn't need to install an appropriate line to guarantee action on the ND side of the ledger. Accordingly, USC gets undervalued and offered the opportunity for a very easy cover. ND is improving, no doubt but they are still light-years from being in the Trojans class. The match up between the USC offense and the ND defense is unfair. The Trojans should march up and down the field at will in this game. Joe McKnight will also dominate the special teams return game for USC. That leaves the ND offense as the Irish's only hope. Clausen has been relatively solid this year but regresses considerably as a passer on third downs (thanks Colin Cowherd). He also has been putting up his impressive numbers against very mediocre Big Ten defenses. He has not seen anything like USC's defense yet this season. All things considered, we think this is a long, long day for Notre Dame and will revitalize those calling for Charlie Weiss' ouster. Take USC but buy .5 points to a -9.5 line (-120). LOCK IT UP

Minnesota @ Penn State - Line is Penn State -17 - We're back to earlier in the season when the Nittany Lions received undeserved large lines in their games. They didn't cover those early season games and they won't cover this one either. I guess we need to confess our crush on the Golden Gophers at this point. This is something like four straight weeks being featured on the Locks. OK, we really like this Minnesota team - especially the offense. They can run the ball just enough to create 1-on-1 opportunities for the most under-the-radar WR studs in the country (Eric Decker). Minny's defense is marginal but it won't need to be Alabama-calibre to help them bust this point spread - the offense will handle that. Not sure why Penn St gets so much love in Vegas. We'll once again back Minny. Take the Gophers +17. LOCK IT UP

Oklahoma vs. Texas (Supposed Neutral Field of the Cotton Bowl) - Line is Texas -3 - This promises to be a wonderful game though something tells us that Texas has been single-minded in its focus on this one since August. Texas hasn't looked that great in recent weeks and that has helped keep this line at a very manageable 3 points. Sam Bradford is back playing but is he really back? That is hard to say. The Longhorns front 7 will be trying to knock him down to see if he gets up. This is enough of an unknown to make us take notice. Oklahoma has an excellent defense but McCoy to Shipley is hard for anyone to shut down. We just have a feeling that Texas makes a very strong, very convincing case for itself as the leading contender to play for the national championship. We'd recommend buying half a point in this one too. Do that and you take Texas -2.5 (-125). LOCK IT UP

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