Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Back in the Saddle

Just another day on this roller coaster that we call Absolute Locks. Today is a good day. We hit all three of our Unpickable Master Locks last evening and once again sing the praises of the new picking format. For all picks, we went 6-4 and added $16 to the BAT, pushing it back over the century mark.

We're back to a full slate of 15 games tonight so there was a lot to sift through and pick from. Below you'll find our three UMLs, as well as your weekly Two-For Tuesday selection.

Unpickable Master Locks:

Philadelphia @ Chicago - Yet another case of the curious moneyline. Vegas has the Cubs sitting here as the favorite even though Rich Harden is terrible at home, Aramis Ramirez is hurting and the NL East leading Phillies are coming to town with JA Happ on the mound (4-1, 1.72 on the road). I realize the Phils have been slumping a bit of late (3-7 in their last ten) but good teams don't stay down for long. Philly is a good team. I'm not yet certain we can say the same about the Cubs who are skidding a bit themselves (4-6 in last ten), that is especially true if Ramirez is unable to play again. This one seems like a bit of a no-brainer to me. Look to the Phils big bats to knock Harden around and Happ to pitch well. Phillies (+114) win here 6-2. LOCK IT UP

Texas @ Cleveland - Yet another surprising line with the Rangers coming in as dogs. Texas has a whole lot to be playing for the rest of the way, while the Indians don't. That shouldn't be overlooked. Kenny Powers' brother Dustin Nippert pitches tonight and he's been rolling of late (3-0, 0.95 since the All-Star break). The Indians counter with Aaron Laffey who has been stingy himself (3-0, 1.86 at home). However, he got pummeled in his one start against these Rangers. I think this is a case of a better team with more to play for vs. a lesser team just playing out the string. I expect the Rangers to put the foot on the gas over the next few weeks and try to make a race out of the wild card. That starts with a W tonight in Cleveland. Take the Rangers (+104) to win 7-5. LOCK IT UP

Washington @ Atlanta - How about this for a surprise. Not only are we going to back the streaking Nattys but we're including them in the UMLs. Some might say that is reason enough to have our heads examined at that is OK. We're a bit perplexed on this one as well. However, there is a major hunch kicking around in our gut trying to get out. First things first, these aren't your father's Nationals ever since the Milledge for Morgan trade. Nyger has come in and turned this team into a solid run scoring unit. Combined that with the hot bats of Zimmerman, Dunn, Guzman and Dukes and you have a lineup that isn't too much fun to face right now. While Tommy Hanson is good, he is young and prone to mistakes. This is suddenly an offense that can make you pay for mistakes. Secondly, Washington hands the ball to the eminently reliable John Lannan. Lannan has faced the Braves three times this year and turned in two outstanding performances. While the Bravos are just as hot as the Nats, we like Lannan a bit more than Hanson in this one. The crazy moneyline he doesn't hurt either. Look to the Nattys to extend their win streak to 9 with a victory tonight. Take Washington (+160) to win a close one, 5-4. LOCK IT UP

Two-For Tuesday:

Oakland @ Baltimore - Here are two lineups that haven't scored a ton of runs combined this year but who are certainly capable of putting up some crooked numbers quickly. It doesn't hurt when you face pitching staffs that aren't necessarily chock full of experienced winners either. We think that Camden Yards will be a bit of a race track tonight with the ponies running around the bases at will. We're picking the over which comes in at 10 runs (-125). With regard to the game itself, we look to Baltimore to bounce back from last night's drubbing and pull this one out. Take the O's (-184) to win 9-6. LOCK IT UP

Remaining Games:


Rays (-122) - TAMPA BITCHES!
Pets (+200) - Yup, the Pets will win in the desert behind Livan
Twins minus 1.5 runs (-115)
Marlins (-128)
Tigers (+108)
Yankees minus 1.5 runs (-145)
Padres (+120) - Looper is in trouble
Cardinals (-157)
Pirates (+170)
Giants (+118) - Big bounce back game
White Sox (-135) - Another big bounce back game

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