What a demoralizing Monday night. Our efforts to get back on track were derailed once again on a night that simply didn't make a whole lot of sense. Top-tier starting pitchers shit the bed left and right. Neither Matt Cain, Dan Harren nor Clayton Kershaw pitched to any sort of level that could have been expected. Then there was the Texas Rangers' bullpen which gave away a 2-0 lead with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning. Good thing we played a hunch and bet against a Tiger win by more than one run. Otherwise, we'd really be in the hurt locker this morning. Once the dust settled, we found ourselves 2-5 on the evening and another $32 eroded from our shrinking BAT. These are difficult times. There's just no way around that. However, we're going to keep our head down, continue to break down games and expect some normalcy to return at some point soon. We hope you stick with us.
Season to date we're still on the right side of .500 but the buffer is growing slimmer. Here are the cold hard stats: 178-169 with a BAT of +$110. We've cut our BAT in more than a half in exactly one week.
Two-For Tuesday
We've realized that our recent slide all started last Tuesday, when we absentmindedly failed to provide a Two-For Tuesday selection. We won't make that mistake again. Today's pick for the Tuesday double-dip is Locks' whipping boy, the New York Pets, hosting Fat Albert and the St. Louis Cardinals. This matchup between Johan Santana and Joel Pineiro has all the makings or an elite pitchers duel. Johan is one of the best pitchers in the game, period. Pineiro is one on the most under appreciated starters this season. His 9 wins and 2.84 ERA include a 2-0, 1.06 line against the Pets this year. Vegas is setting the bar pretty low on the O/U - 7 runs. However, we don't think there will be too many cleats touching the dish in this one. We think the under (-110) is safe here. As for the winner, we can't help but continue our smear campaign against the Fruitcakes from Flushing. We realize that Johan is pitching but these are the type of games that Fat Albert and Professor LaRussa thrive on. This will be a really fun battle (wish I was watching) but in the end, I think the Cards will prevail, 3-2. So the Two-For Tuesday wager goes like this:
Under 7 runs (-110)
Cardinals to win (-110)
LOCK IT UP
Now for the rest of Tuesday's games with one minor programming note. Moving forward, the Locks is going to be a bit more judicious in determining which games it provides picks for. Often times, there are games that we don't have a great feel for but force picks anyway. We're going to ease off the accelerator as it pertains to this strategy and instead just try to provide you the winners of those games we really like. Don't fret, we're talking about only giving you 11 or 12 picks a night as opposed to all 15. We're sure you will all be OK. In fact, you'll probably thank us as the winning percentage and BAT totals climb.
Arizona @ Pittsburgh - The Pirates are a maddening team, as all teams made up of untested no-names tend to be. World-beaters one day, the Nationals' punching bag the next. We need to recalibrate our expectations as it pertains to the Bucs. They are 15 games below .500 after all. Then there are the DBacks, another thoroughly maddening team. Zack Duke and Yusmeiro Petit just faced off against each other on July 24 in a game the Pirates won handily, 10-3. The starting pitching disparity here is so great, as it was on the 24th, that we're going with the home team. The line makes us a bit nervous (-142) but we're sticking with the Steel Town to win. Keep an eye on the over in this one too (8.5 runs). LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ Detroit - I guess that the Orioles have been so pleased by their young hitters so far this season, that they've promoted a number of their top minor league arms as well. A night after Chris Tillman started his second career game, 2008 first round pick Brian Matusz makes his major league debut. His will not be the only debut tonight, as Jared Washburn puts on his Tiger stripes for the first time. Washburn has thoroughly dominated the O's this season (1-1, 0.56) and you just have no clue what you'll get from Matusz his first time out. As such, smart money is on Detroit Rock City, even though these guys have not been playing the best ball of late. Unfortunately, with the Tigers' propensity to play one-run games, we can't push the 1.5 run cover. That leaves us with a -210 line, the largest we've suggested taking all season. However, desperate times call for desperate measures. Take Detroit (-210) to win, 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Colorado @ Philadelphia - I hate when Jamie Moyer pitches. I always want to have a good reason to support the Phils and he just doesn't fit the bill. The Rocks counter with Jason Hammel who is looking to bounce back from a miserable start against the Pets last time out. The Phils have got to be embarrassed by their performance in SF over the weekend and eager to get back on track at home. Moyer's numbers at Citizens Bank Ballpark are frightening (6.83 ERA). The Rockies haven't one in Philly since 2007. Is it obvious that I am struggling with this one? One thing I do know is that these teams haven't played a close game yet this year so someone is going to win by at least two runs. I have to go with the Phils and hope Moyer can continue his recent rash of somewhat solid starts. Take Philadelphia minus 1.5 runs (+140) to win 8-5. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ Washington - This one looks pretty straightforward on paper. The Marlins are coming into their own and making noise in the wild card race. They trot out Josh Johnson and his 10-2, 2.87 stat line to face the lowly Nattys and J.D. from the Howard Stern Show. Actually, it's J.D. Martin and his 0-2, 7.50 stat line. The only thing that is remotely troubling is that some of the Nats batters have had moderate success against Johnson (Zimmermann, Guzman and Dunn). However, that is not enough to scare us off here. This one should not be close. Take the Fish minus 1.5 runs (-110) to roll to a 7-2 victory. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Cleveland - Wow, am I torn about this game. The Indians have me so gun shy right now. Every time I pick against them they make me pay. Now I'm looking at them like they are the '27 Yankees instead of a team that just traded several of their best players. On a side note, I am shocked by how good of a player and hitter Asdrubel Cabrera has become. Early on in his career he had the look of an all-glove, no-hit guy. Now he is a legitimate offensive force. Back to the game. Both of these lineups have had ample success against the opposing pitchers. And while Scott Baker has pitched better of late for the Twinkies, he's still tough to predict. Instead of trying to sort out a winner here, I'm going to put my money behind the type of game that I think we're going to see. I expect both offenses to be comfortable and effective, generating plenty of runs. As such, the play here is the over (9 runs). You'll get that at -110. We're predicting a game in the area of 7-6. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Toronto - I'm finding it more and more difficult to handicap Yankee games objectively. And while I do like the Bombers in this game, I'm going to stay away from it entirely. This is especially difficult to do since it is one of the few times the Yanks will be +125 dogs this season. That's what happens when you face Roy Halladay. Instead of predicting a Yankee win here, I'll just sit back and enjoy it when it happens.
Boston @ Tampa Bay - This is going to be another great game tonight, along the lines of Cardinals/Pets. We get treated to a showdown between John Lester and Matt Garza. This is a big game for both teams as they battle for the AL East, as well as the wild card. Garza has shut down the Sox this year (2-0, 1.66) and likes to pitch at the Trop. Lester on the other hand has been shelled twice by the Rays (0-2, 12.54) - though both starts were early in the season. I wouldn't expect Lester to be that bad again but I still like the Rays here as many of their regulars hit Lester hard. We're getting into do or die mode for TB as well. TAMPA BITCHES. Take the Rays (-126) to win 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Cincinnati - Tom Gorzelanny has found his way back to the major leagues. However, it is not with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Tonight, he takes the hill firmly entrenched in a pennant race as a Cubbie. The Reds counter with Johnny Cueto who has been a disaster of late. His ERA has climbed every start since July 1 and now comes in at over 4.00. That period of inadequacy includes a beating at the hand of the Cubs on July 25. Derek Lee and Alfonso Soriano absolutely own Cueto during their careers while their is not much of a track record for the Reds hitters vs. Gorzelanny. We like the way the Cubs have been playing lately but have been terrified by the recent work put in by their bullpen. Kevin Gregg is not a ML closer. Sweet Lou better figure that out soon. We'll still ride the Cubbies here and expect Lee and Soriano to carry the offensive load tonight. Back ChiTown (-107) in this one as they win 6-4. LOCK IT UP
San Francisco @ Houston - This is the exact type of game that I am going to start staying away from. Neither of these have worked out for me in any way recently. Houston, in particular, has been a team that I can't get my finger on at all. My guess would be that the Giants will bounce back from last night's loss but if they couldn't win with Matt Cain, I'm not sure you can be too confident they will with Jonathan Sanchez. Pick this one at your own peril.
Seattle @ Kansas City - Just based on talent levels, I'm not sure that the Royals should be even moneyline matches with the M's. I realize that Kaufman Stadium has not been a fun place for Seattle in recent years but that doesn't scare me enough to pick the Royals here. The M's get Adrian Beltre back tonight and that might be the kick in the pants the offensive needs. I also like what I have seen so far from Seattle starter Ryan Rowland-Smith. I'll take the M's (-110) to win here 5-3. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Chicago - Lackey vs. Contreras. Consistency vs. Unpredictability. And while the Angels have been playing the best ball in the majors of late, the ChiSox have been no slouches themselves. This should be another entertaining game and we're a bit surprised to see LAA such a big favorite (-142). Regardless, the Angels offense is on fire and we think they'll give Lackey enough of what he needs for the W. Take the Halos (-142) to win 7-5. LOCK IT UP
Texas @ Oakland - That Rangers/A's game last night was devastating. A loss like that at this point of the season will really test a team, especially a young team. The Rangers are starting to miss Ian Kinsler in their lineup. With two lefties on the hill, the key to me here is the respective teams' records against southpaws (Texas - 22-15; Oakland - 14-23). That is a very significant disparity. Gio Gonzalez has been much better of late but still has horrendous numbers at home. We think Texas will be able to bounce back from last night's disappointment and get an important win here behind Derek Holland. Take Texas (-125) to win a battle, 6-5. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ San Diego - We stayed away from this game last night and we're glad we did. Tonight is a different story as we really like Javy Vazquez to dominate the Padres. I'm not going to pretend to know a thing about SD starter Tim Stauffer. His numbers in four starts are solid. I still think Chipper, McCann and/or LaRoche do some damage in this one and get the Bravos back on track. Take Hotlanta minus 1.5 runs (+105) to win 6-2. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ LA - That little slut Milwaukee goes and really sticks it to me in LA-LA land last night. Roughing up Clayton Kershaw and getting a solid start from Manny Parra. Really? We didn't see that coming from this strumpet. Oh well, we think she'll be back to her sloppy self tonight as the Dodgers right last night's wrongs. Apparently, Hiroki Kuroda has corrected a mechanical flaw in his delivery and now is a pitching force. OK. We'll buy that. The Dodgers treated Yovanni Gallardo rudely already once this year. Here's to it happening twice. Ride LA (-125) into the sunset. Final score is 5-2. LOCK IT UP
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