But first, a minor outburst: BRIAN MOEHLER IS WHO WE THOUGHT HE IS!
(That is in response to the first pitch grand slam Moehler just served up to the .230-hitting Eli Whiteside in the SF-Houston game. I guess I start today 0-1.)
On to the action:
Arizona @ Pittsburgh - I should have stayed away from this game last night but the starting pitching disparity looked so obvious. Apparently it was, just in the other direction. Petit went into that game as an absolute joke and then twirled a one-hitter. Is Pittsburgh really that bad? I sure didn't think so. In fact, I thought these young Pirates were starting to get a little thing going. Now it's time to rethink that. These pitchers (Russ Ohlendorf and Doug Davis) just faced off against each other in the desert on July 25th with Davis getting the better of the showdown. However, Ohlendorf is much better at home (7-2) and Davis is not as good on the road (2-4). Still, is that enough to expect the Bucs to pull this one out? I'm doubtful. The Pirates are 2-8 in their last ten, while the DBacks are 7-3 and riding a mini three game winning streak. Vegas has this game nearly even so I'll ride the better team with arguably the better starter. The pick is Arizona (-109) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ Detroit - With my blossoming love of the Orioles, it hurts especially bad when I pick against them and they win. Baltimore fans must be wildly encouraged by the success their wealth of young players are having. Matusz is just the latest of what could prove to be a stable of future stars. It would be nice to have a competitive team back in Camden Yards. But onto more immediate things. Today, the Orioles face off against Edwin Jackson and Detroit Rock City. Even with an uncharacteristically short outing last start, Jackson has been remarkably consistent this season. The same can be said about Jeremy Guthrie, except he's been consistently horrible with an ERA in the mid-5.00s all season. Jackson has already dominated the O's once this year (then again Jared Washburn had done the same thing twice prior to last night). I'll disregard last night's game and instead focus on the fact that the Tigers hitters have a solid track record against Guthrie, particularly Granderson and Miggy Ordonez. I'd like to back Baltimore here but I just can't see it. Take the Tigers minus 1.5 runs (+105) to handle the O's. Final score is 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Colorado @ Philadelphia - There is something about these Colorado Rockies at the moment. They certainly have proven to be a team of runs in recent years and both the team and tonight's starter (Jorge De La Rosa) are on very nice runs. I hate to pick against the Phils but I'm playing a hunch here. JA Happ is going to hit the rookie wall at some point and slip a bit. The hot hitting Rocks might be the team to give him a little nudge into that wall and that bullpen doesn't look to be much help should he bow out early tonight. While De La Rosa hasn't had much career success against the Phils, his is a young career that is just now starting to deliver the results many expected from this kid. I'm staying on the Silver Bullet train that comes from the Rocky Mountains. Give me the Rocks (+125) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ Washington - It is hard to recall a loss as tough to swallow for the Locks as last night's Washington win over the Fish. Josh Johnson was lights out for 7 innings and staked to a 4-0 lead against the woeful Nattys. Then everything fell apart. Hopefully this isn't the type of loss the submarines a young team in the latter parts of a surprising season. Things don't get any easier tonight as they face off against John Lannan. However, Florida counters with another guy whose pitched very well this year, Rick VandenHurk. The Locks really likes this kid and the Nats team is a combined 3 for 24 against him their careers. Lannan has faced Florida twice this season but both starts came very early on. He was terrible in one and solid in the other. The Marlins do fare well against lefties and they need to bounce back from last nights' loss quickly. We'll back our boy VandenHurk and select Florida (-115) to win in the nation's capital. Final score of 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Cleveland - The Twinkies' offense finally dusted itself off last night and the Injins played the way most rational folks would expect. For a day, things were normal in Cleveland. And we were too scared to bet it. At least we hit the over. Tonight is a very interesting contest as Minny turns to the incredibly frustrating Francisco Liriano. You really have to wonder if this guy will ever reclaim any of the ability that he displayed before his injury. Right now, he is just pitching to stay in the rotation. This Indian team likes to face lefties so it could be another long night for Frankie. He's opposed by Aaron Laffey who pitches well at home and against the Twins (though Morneau and Mauer do hit him well). We don't expect Laffey to be stellar tonight, but we do expect him to be better than Liriano. Hopefully this game does not come down to the bullpens because then Cleveland is in trouble. We're taking the lowly Indians (-103) to beat the very beatable Liriano at the Jake. Final score of 8-6. LOCK IT UP
NYY @ Toronto - The dreaded every fifth day for the Yankees and Sergio Mitre. This guy better start keeping the Yanks in games or his days are numbered. Thus is life in the Bronx. Also at work here is the Yankees' dreaded first look at a pitcher. It is no secret these hitters don't fare too well against the unfamiliar. That said, one night after dispatching Roy Halliday, it's hard to imagine NY won't be able to push some runs across against Dr. Consonant (Marc Rzepczynski). Perhaps our rose-colored glasses have fallen back over our eyes, but this looks like another NY W heading into a big series with the BoSox. Take the Bombers (-110) to win, 6-5. LOCK IT UP
Boston @ Tampa Bay - These days, the Sox have got to be nervous when they don't win a game started by either Beckett or Lester. They just don't know what they'll ever get from the Penny, Smoltz, Buchholz pu-pu platter. Bradley Penny's spot comes up tonight in a big game for the Sox. They don't want to head into new Yankee Stadium on a two-game slide. Penny has been just OK against the Rays this year (1-1, 4.38) but hasn't faced them since early May. The Rays send David Price out to the mound and he's got to be thrilled this game is at the Trop. His road/home splits are scary. In St. Pete, he's 4-1, 2.67. The BoSox have not gotten a look at him yet this year. Both teams will be looking for the starters to go deep after the pens were worked hard in last night's extra inning affair. The Red Sox are a very good team so we're never surprised when they win. However, we just don't trust Penny at all. TAMPA BITCHES! Take the Rays (-147) - this line is way too high - to win 6-5. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Cincinnati - Richie Harden on the road. That is all we need to say here. One more thing: he's 2-0, 2.25 with 16 Ks in 12 innings against the Reds this season. Sorry Justin Lehr, you'll have to find your first win somewhere else. Take the Cubs minus 1.5 runs (-115) to win easily, 7-2. LOCK IT UP
Seattle @ Kansas City - The Locks is absolutely devastated today. We've received the worst kind of news possible. In fact, we're considering not making a pick in this game as a sort of tribute to a fallen soldier. That's right, there will be no more SIDNEY PONSON ALERTS issued by the Locks. Sir Sidney has been designated for assignment and will not make this start and any other starts for the foreseeable future. There goes one of our most foolproof strategies for making money. Alas, we must go on. The M's aren't too disappointed to see Ponson's replacement take the hill. As a team, they have crushed Kyle Davies in their careers. Seattle hands the ball to newly acquired Lucas French who has already faced the Royals once this year and beat them. While we certainly don't expect either starter to be confused with Nolan Ryan, we think it is safe to say that Seattle will take this one home. Expect runs to be plentiful as the M's minus 1.5 runs (+145) win big 9-5. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Chicago - The Angels as a pretty healthy underdog? Really? Our analysis begins and ends right there. I know the South Siders are playing well and are a good team. However, if I can get this Angels team as a dog, I'll take it (unless Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders is pitching). I like the Halos to bounce back from last night's walk-off win by the Sox. Take LAA (+117) to win behind good Irish boy Sean O'Sullivan. Final score is 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Texas @ Oakland - Interesting. One of our favorite teams is on the verge of getting swept in OakTown. That is not good for anyone. And with that most unfortunate possibility hanging in the air, the Rangers turn to Dr. Swine Flu himself - Vicente Padilla. He's been surprisingly solid on the road this year. More importantly, the A's give the ball to....are you ready.....the world famous Chad Reineke (waiting for the applause to die down). With a different spelling, Chad could be the unfortunate offspring of either Gary or Ron Reneoke. Let's be serious for a minute. There is only one consideration in betting this game. Will the Rangers, who are fighting for a playoff spot, get swept by the A's. Methinks no. Take Texas (-126) to win 8-5. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ LA - Everyone is waiting with anticipation to see what the fallout from Fielder-Gate is tonight at Chavez Ravine. My guess is the fallout is another Dodger blowout and the promiscuous Brew Crew crying all the way back to Milwaukee. There is a very good chance that Jason Schmidt is back based on his last outing. That is not good news for the rest of the NL. The Dodgers will score tonight in bunches and this one will be over by the 6th inning. Take LA minus 1.5 runs (+150) as they win 11-4. LOCK IT UP
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