Saturday, September 19, 2009

FOOTBALL!!!!!

NFL Week 2. No Lead-In Necessary:

Sunday Early Games:

Oakland @ Kansas City - Line is Kansas City -3 - The Raiders opened quite a few sets of eyes with their performance against the Chargers on Monday night. They look to be far from the joke that most expected coming into the season. Darren McFadden has changed the complexion of the Oakland offense, opening some passing lanes for Mr. Biggins (JaMarcus Russell) and making the Raiders a bit more dynamic. On top of that, the Oakland defense is legit and hard hitting. KC also played a much better game than most expected last week, keeping things tight in Baltimore will into the 4th quarter. However, we don't buy the talent level on this team. Especially with Matt Cassell another game time decision. Larry Johnson will not find any running room in this game and Tony Gonzalez lives in Atlanta these days. We'll take the Raiders and the points. Take Oakland (+3) to win 24-20. LOCK IT UP

Houston @ Tennessee - Line is Tennessee -7 - The Texans are not nearly as bad as the Jets made them look last week. Unfortunately, this might not be the week they get to show that to the public. The Titans are a nasty group, especially on defense. They're going to be awfully ornery following the loss to Pittsburgh. However, this is a divisional game and 7 points is a very big line especially when Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton are out to redeem their Week 1 performances. The fact is that everything that could have gone wrong for the Texans did in week 1. That won't happen again. They'll keep this one close but lose in the end. We'll take the Texans (+7) in a game that ends 27-21. LOCK IT UP

New England @ New York Jets - Line is NE -3.5 - Hands down, without a question, this it the game that has received the most hype this week. However, almost all the talk has come from the Jets side of the field. With the Patriots as their opponent, that makes me somewhat nervous. The world got to see just how slippery the Pats can be on Monday night when they pulled a rabbit out of their ass against the Bills. Now we have Bill Belichick coming into Jersey with a game plan for a rookie QB. Sanchez is going to see things he's never seen before. It doesn't help that Jerrod Mayo is out for this one. In the end, I don't think it will matter. Offensively, the Pats will provide a much, much bigger challenge than the Texans did. I'm not sure the much improved Jets D will be able to match up with Moss, Welker, Morris, Watson, etc. We think that Jets' fans will have to cool their jets for the week. To be safe, we'll buy the line down to 3. Take New England (-3) to win this one, 31-27. LOCK IT UP

Cincinnati @ Green Bay - Line is GB -9 - If the Bungels can't beat the pathetic Broncos at home, what the hell are they going to do against the Packers at Lambeau Field? The Packs offense should be able to go up and down the field fairly easily and the opportunistic Pack D will make things tough on Carson Palmer and the Ocho. So much for this being a year of optimism in Cincy. That week 1 meltdown is going to haunt them for a while. Take the Packers -9 to win handily, 34-17. LOCK IT UP

Minnesota @ Detroit - Line is Minnesota -10 - This is a very interesting game. The Lions have not won since 2007 and the Vikings looked pretty impressive pulling away from the Browns last week. However, we have reasons to believe that Detroit will keep this one closer than some expect. For one, Brett Favre is what we call a hump. We will not win the Vikings games this year, he'll only lose them. Secondly, as good as the Vikings run defense is, their secondary is suspect. We can see Megatron having himself quite a week and Matthew Stafford even turning a few heads. At the end of the day, AP will get his yards and win the game for the Vikings. However, running plays mean a running clock so this game will shorten up and make it a bit tougher to cover the big line. We are going to go out on a limb and support the lowly Lions. Take Detroit (+10) to hang in a game that the Vikings ultimately win 28-20. LOCK IT UP

New Orleans @ Philadelphia - Line is Saints -1.5 - This line has me scratching my head. Maybe that is because I think the Eagles are going to the Super Bowl this season. So you can imagine my surprise when I see Philly as a home dog - especially following their thorough domination of the Panthers last week. Sure McNabb may not play but it was the defense that looked the most impressive last week. The Saints are in for a big surprise this week. This is not the Detroit Lions that they are playing. Drew Brees will do well but not well enough to win in Philly. The Saints will get a steady dose of Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. This will shorten the game and keep Brees on the sidelines. When Brees does get on the field, he'll taste a steady diet of the exotic blitzes that the Eagles have become known for. Not having a reliable run game (and no, I don't consider Mike Bell reliable) will also hurt the Saints. I'm not sure this game is even that close. Take the Eagles (+1.5) to win 27-24. LOCK IT UP

Carolina @ Atlanta - Line is Atlanta -6 - One thing to know about this game and all games between NFC South teams is that the home team always wins. Setting that aside, we kind of like the Panthers in this one. For one, we don't buy Atlanta one bit. They beat up on a bad Dolphins team last week. Nothing about that game impressed us. Granted, the Panthers looked like one of the worst teams in the league last week but they did get throttled by our pick for representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. We think that Jake Delhomme has a bit of a bounce back week and the Panthers run game will find much more room against the Falcons. In our mind, 6 points are just too many, especially in a big divisional match up. We'll take Carolina (+6) in a nail biter. Final score is Atlanta 21-20. LOCK IT UP

St. Louis @ Washington - Line is Washington -9.5 - I'm really surprised at the number of mediocre teams that are giving a significant number of points this week. What reason is there for the Skins to be a 9.5 point favorite against anyone? Jason Campbell is still their QB, right? The Rams are not as bad as they looked last week. The deeper we get into this season the more people will realize that the Rams played a very tough team last week at a very tough place to play. We don't think the Rams are a playoff team but they shouldn't be such a big dog to the Skins. That is simply absurd. Quote me on that. We're taking the Rams (+9.5). This game will be a 23-20 battle to the end. You pick the winner, we'll just take the points. LOCK IT UP

Arizona @ Jacksonville - Line is Jaguars -3 - We have to borrow a warning already issued by ESPN's Sports Guy with regard to this game. That would revolve around a West Coast team traveling East to play an early game. It rarely works out well for the road team. We'll plant this game firmly in that territory. Add that to the fact that we think the Cards are wildly overrated due to their nice Super Bowl run last season. MJD will have a field day tomorrow and the Cards will have a tough time getting their offense going. We like the Jags (-3) to win 20-14. LOCK IT UP

Sunday Afternoon Games:


Seattle @ San Francisco - Line is SF -1 - As we've written above, we're big fans of the Seahawks this season. Hasselbeck and the defense are both back. And while the Niners are vastly improved this is a week-by-week situation with that team. They'll have their ups and downs all season. Last week was an up, and an impressive one at that. This week will be a down. We like Hasselbeck to pick apart the Niners secondary and move the Seahawks up and down the field. The game will be close but the dog wins another. Take Seattle (+1) as they win 27-23. LOCK IT UP

Tampa Bay @ Buffalo - Line is Bills -4.5 - We love this game. The Bucs are terrible (don't be fooled by last week's game against Dallas) and on the road. The Bills are a resilient team that is only going to feed off of that Monday night collapse. Buffalo will come out swinging early and pull away in the second half. Bill Cosby and the rest of the Buttaneers will wish they had stayed in Flo-Rida. Take the Bills (-4.5) to win 31-14. LOCK IT UP

Cleveland @ Denver - Line is Denver -3.5 - I'd really rather not have to pick this game but I will anyway. This is a question of what team do we think is worse. That is an easy question because we don't think many teams are as bad as the Broncos (despite last week's miracle). The Browns did show some spunk last week against the Vikings before folding up shop in the second half. They also have Joshua Cribbs who can change any game in any number of ways in an instant. This one will be tough on the eyes but you will be able to make some dough. Take the Browns (+3.5) to win 17-13. LOCK IT UP

Baltimore @ San Diego - Line is San Diego -2.5 - The good news for Baltimore, they looked like an excellent offensive team last week. The bad news, they played Kansas City. Things won't be that easy this week, especially since they'll be traveling 3,000 miles or so. Folks are getting a bit up in arms over the Chargers based on their Monday nighter against Oakland. We're not one of them. Philip Rivers is going to be a major, major force this season and Darren Sproles will pick up the LT slack. We think the Ravens will not enjoy their stay in San Diego. The best they can hope is to stay classy. Take the Chargers (-2.5) to win 24-17. LOCK IT UP

Pittsburgh @ Chicago - Line is Steelers -3 - This one made me actually stop, rub my chin and take a breath. Wow. A battle that can go many ways. The Bears are missing Urlacher but played pretty darn well against GB last week despite 4 picks from Jay Cutler. The Steelers are missing Troy P and were very, very lucky to squeak out a win against Tennessee last week. Pitt can't run the ball but Big Ben looks like he's ready to carry the offensive load. Chicago expects to run with Matt Forte but this is a tough game for that to happen. The game is in Soldier Field. Jay Cutler needs to bounce back. The Steelers are defending Super Bowl champs who figure out how to win these types of games. Like I said, Wow. When all else fails, take the points. We'll go with Chicago (+3) and hope for the best. Final score is 17-16. LOCK IT UP

Sunday Night Game:

NY Giants @ Dallas - Line is Dallas -2.5 - We love the fact that Big Blue is a dog in this game. They will win it outright and it won't be that close. Look to Jacobs and Bradshaw to rack up the yardage and break Dallas' defensive spirit. Also look for Kevin Boss to go for not one but two red zone TDs. Romo may expose the Giants secondary at times but it will not be nearly enough. Romo will also spend several moments looking up at the new big screen from his back. Here's hoping that several punts hit the video screen and Jerry Jones is exposed for the knucklehead that he is. Gmen (+2.5) to win outright. Final score is 31-30. LOCK IT UP

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