We set out yesterday to start grinding out W's and increasing the BAT. You can argue that nothing represents grinding better than a day marked by an 8-7 record and a +$3 BAT. These meager results initially brought the Locks frustration. However, upon further reflection, we saw yesterday as our first steps in a steep climb up to where turkey vultures soar.
Baseball is a funny, fickle sport. With teams playing nearly every day, the ups and downs of a week, a month and a full season are sometimes hard to anticipate or comprehend. At the same time, it is critical to remember that no team is as good as it looks when playing well nor as bad as it appears when playing poorly. There have been times during this season where nearly every one of the 32 teams looked like they might not win another game. Yet near cellar dwellers such as the Indians and DBacks continue to go out and beat teams in games that defy explanation (ex. the Carl Pavano led Indians dusting the first place Tigers 11-1). At the same time, those teams from whom you come to expect consistent victories simply don't live up to expectations (Tigers, Rockies, Brewers, Braves, etc.). The lesson is that each day is a new day in major league baseball and while you can learn from the past (both distant and recent), you can't expect it to perfectly dictate the future. Now that we're through baseball gambling therapy 101, it's back to the grindhouse.
We have a short slate of games today, mostly in the NL. We missed out on the Rays/Royals afternoon affair and are kicking ourselves for doing so. And not only because we would have loved to have posted another TAMPA BITCHES belly scream.
Baltimore @ Detroit - The Tigers really kicked us in the pants this weekend by not handling the Injins in a more convincing fashion. We're growing more and more leery of Detroit Rock City's offense. Their shortcomings have been fairly apparent for quite some time now. And then there are the Orioles, a team that we wish didn't play in the AL East so that we could cheer for them more lustily. The one problem with this well crafted debasing of Detroit and ballyhooing of Baltimore is tonight's pitching matchup. Justin Verlander (4-0, 1.85 in five career starts against the O's) vs. Chris Tillman (one career ML appearance). I guess that is why Vegas has the Tigers at -275. Regardless, we still have a bit of a gut feeling here. For one, Detroit's offense has been inept recently. They simply can't knock guys in from 3rd base with less than two outs. That is not a good formula no matter who they have pitching. The fact that Tillman is a complete unknown to them, and a fairly highly rated unknown at that, should compound their problems. Verlander also has a tendency to have one or two innings during a game where things can potentially go haywire and I think the O's have the bats to make him pay. I've talked myself into trying to make some dough on the heavy dog. Let's take Baltimore plus 1.5 runs (+105) to keep this one close. We'll call it a Tigers' W at 3-2. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ Pittsburgh - I guess the league thought this series was so good they should extend it until Monday. At this point, these lineups are littered with guys who weren't around on Opening Day. We've liked the Pirates' moxie throughout this series and will continue to like it today. Plus, Charlie Morton is the better of the two starters and the Bucs have last licks. Seems like a reasonable enough assessment of this horrible game. Take Pittsburgh minus 1.5 runs (+140) to win 7-4. LOCK IT UP
Arizona @ NYM - Speaking of horrible games, the Pets have decided to surface again. If there ever was a reason for a team to be a -500 favorite, here it is. Arguably the best pitcher in baseball against arguably the worst team in baseball. And just in case you're confused, I'm not referencing Nelson Figueroa and the Diamondbacks. Yet, Vegas only has Arizona and Danny Harren sitting at -175. This seems too good to be true. There is absolutely nothing about this game that makes us think the DBacks will not cover 1.5 runs. I wouldn't be surprised if Danny Boy spins a shutout at Citi Field, quickly becoming pitchers' favorite NL ballpark. With that in mind, the DBacks won't need much in the way of offense to cover. We're taking the gamble. Arizona minus 1.5 runs (-105) to win tonight 4-0. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Cincinnati - Absolute Locks may be Randy Wells' biggest fan. We have no idea why other than the fact that he seems to always make us money. He's back on the hill tonight in a game that Lou Pinella hopes doesn't require an appearance by Kevin Gregg. We're guessing it won't. The Cubs offense has been a bit schizophrenic recently but we're looking for a breakout tonight against Aaron Harang who must have been hoping he'd get a ticket out of Cincy ahead of the trade deadline. Instead, he'll continue pitching for a thoroughly mediocre team. Another day, another big hit for Aramis Ramirez. Take the Cubs (-138) to prevail 7-3. LOCK IT UP
San Francisco @ Houston - On paper, we should be ecstatic and overly confident about this game. Matt Cain is an absolute monster and Mike Hampton is a hump. Yet, anything involving the Houston Astros these days has been turning our world upside down. There are a few Stros that have hit Cain well in their career (very small sample sizes, though). Regardless, we think the Giants made a huge statement this weekend by taking 3 of 4 from the Phils. This team believes it is a playoff team and it is getting harder and harder to argue against that point. So, we're going to pretend this game will be played on paper and do what we know we should: pick the Giants. Take SF (-133) to win Game 1 of another big series. Final score is 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Atlanta @ San Diego - We are staying away from this one. The Braves are clearly the better team but they just flew across the country following a night game in which they were blown out. Plus they have the incredibly unreliable Kenshin Kawakami on the mound. Vegas ain't sure what to do here either as they have both teams sitting at -110. This game can go any of a million different directions. We'll just watch and continuously thank ourselves for not having a dog in this fight.
Texas @ Oakland - We tried to get cute with the Athletic Supporters this weekend and they ended up doing what they always do: sucking. If they were our automobile, we'd pull over to the shoulder of the 880, remove the license plates, scratch out the VIN # and start walking. We're not even going to get roped in by the fact that Brett Anderson is starting against Kenny Powers' brother, Dustin Nippert. This is all Rangers all the time. Take Texas (+107) to win handily. Final score is 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ LA - Ugh. Our cheating slut of a girlfriend (i.e. Milwaukee Brewers) is taking her show to Hollywood. Can anything good possibly come from this? We think not. Especially not with Clayton Kershaw on the mound for the Dodgers. We're going to give the whore her own space down in LA and hope she gets better once we get back home. Take the Dodgers minus 1.5 runs (-115) to leave a hand print on her backside. Final score is 6-1. LOCK IT UP
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