As I've mentioned in previous posts, I think it is important to provide a measure for the success of Absolute Locks merely beyond a simple W-L record. In the world of gambling, with its varying moneylines, wins and losses tell an incomplete, and sometimes misleading, story. With that in mind, in addition to tracking Ws and Ls, we are going to offer our proprietary Bank Account Tracker. This tracker will function by assuming that we place $10 on every wager and monitoring the fluctuations in the money that would be won and lost. This might give the gamblers among you a better gauge for the value we are, or are not, providing.
In kicking this tool off, we decided to catch up on previous days of picks in order to have an accurate, up-to-the-minute dollar total. Here it is:
June 30 (3-5 record): minus $16
July 1 (2-6): minus $43 (balance of -$59)
July 2 (3-4): minus $8 (balance of -$67)
July 3 (5-3): positive $25 (balance of -$42)
July 6 (6-2): positive $24 (balance of -$18)
July 7 (10-3): positive $67 (balance of +$49)
July 8 (6-7): minus $13 (balance of +36)
So we kick-off today's action up $36 after just about a week of action. Again, this assumes that all bets are for $10. For higher rollers, a $100 a bet approach would have you up $360 as of this morning. We'll continue to post daily back account tracker results, along with a running, up-to-date balance.
Before we get to tonight's games, it is important to note that in early action today the Yanks and Cards have already come in and the ChiSox are mounting a furious comeback from down 9-2. We're feeling good and will keep the winners rolling tonight:
Cincinnati @ Philadelphia - I don't love Jamie Moyer here but he has been pitching better of late. Key in this ballpark is that Moyer keeps the ball on the ground at a bit higher rate than Reds' starter Micah Owings. Owings is the type of pitcher the big Phillie bats can hurt....and they will. I think the Reds put up some runs in this game, just not enough. Take Philly (-154) to win 6-5. LOCK IT UP
San Diego @ San Francisco - With Lincecum on the mound tonight, this certainly has the feel of a Giants victory. The moneyline (-275) certainly agrees with that point of view. However, the Locks never plays these king of moneylines in the interest of profit. So just how do you make some money on a game like this. Well, we're eyeballing the line on the Padres plus 1.5 runs (+105). The Giants offense is not very good and Josh Geer has been pitching better for the Pads. I see this as a low-scoring, one-run game. I'll take SD plus the run and a half in a 3-2 Giants win. LOCK IT UP
Kansas City @ Boston - The latest Beantown punching bag rolls through Fenway this weekend in the form of the KC Royals. Thank you sir, may I have another. Luke Hochevar brings his 6.55 road ERA to Boston. I don't see this one being very close, though the Boston bats have been marginal recently. Brad Penny should work through the Royals lineup fairly easily. Take Boston minus the 1.5 runs at an EVEN moneyline. They take care of business 8-4. LOCK IT UP
LA @ NYM - That was a fairly atypical performance for both the Mets and Dodgers last night. And the Dodgers only lost by a run. That highlights just how significant the disparity is between these two teams. I believe things get back to normal tonight at Citi Field as Randy Wolf continues his career trend of dominating the Pets. "And He Shall Be" Livan is a gutsy guy but not gutsy enough to save the Mets. Take LA minus 1.5 runs at EVEN. They cruise 6-2. LOCK IT UP
Washington @ Houston - This weekend's installment of the "Who Freaking Cares" MLB series. Not making a pick just on general principle. LOCK THESE TEAMS UP AND DUMP THEM IN THE OCEAN
Atlanta @ Colorado - Tough game to pick a winner, so I won't. The o/u line is was too high (9.5) in this battle of very good pitchers. You can thank good ole Coors Field for that. I am totally buying Tommy Hanson as a staff ace. His stuff is excellent and he's getting more and more comfortable every time out. Aaron Cook is no slouch himself as he showed when shutting out the weak hitting Bravos on four hits in May. Take the under at -115. This is a 4-2 type of game. LOCK IT UP
Florida@ Arizona - I like Andrew Miller's stuff and the Dbacks don't like to face lefties (8-15). Arizona is starting someone with an ERA of 8.46. That should be enough for you. It sure is for me. Take the fish to win (-108). Final score of 8-5. LOCK IT UP
Texas @ Seattle - Just as sometimes you feel like life has kicked you in the nuts, sometimes you just feel like life has given you a gift. That is how I feel about this game. Vegas is giving Felix Hernandez way too much credit with this moneyline (Seattle -180). Have they seen the way that the Rangers are swinging the bats? Did they see the M's bullpen meltdown yesterday? I love Texas in this game and I love the moneyline (+160) even more. Take the Rangers to win, 5-3. LOCK IT UP
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