Friday, July 31, 2009

A-Wheeling and A-Dealing: The Deadline Dance

We're barreling down on the trading deadline and the action seems to be pretty hot and heavy. The Red Sox are calling every team in baseball and asking about their best players (Adrian Gonzalez, Victor Martinez, Felix Hernandez, etc.) Jared Washburn and Orlando Cabrera have already switched uniforms today and they look to be getting some company by this afternoon. Just an all-around entertaining day. That helps take a bit of the sting out of last night's 1-5 disaster. It brought us to 4-7 on the day and killed any momentum we generated with Wednesday night's success. We now stand at 155-140 (53%) and a +$190 BAT.

In more positive news, 70s Style Bush answered the call last night with an impressive 19-11 drubbing of the DirtBags. The bats came alive, assisted by large volumes of Coors Light, and gave the pitching and defense all that was needed to cruise to victory. Two 3-run HRs from Matt Hussey and a once-in-a-lifetime relief appearance from Brien Dirito (1 inning, 7 earned runs) highlighted the win. The Bush faces an August 6 bye and returns to the field on August 13th at 2-2.

Now back to big-boy baseball. The Locks is focused more than ever on uncovering winners and padding pockets. That begins tonight.

Boston @ Baltimore - This one feels like a slugfest with Jeremy Guthrie and his 23 HRs allowed squaring off against the Great John Smoltz Experiment. Smoltz faced the O's in his last start and got all lit up. Based on this pitching matchup, the Locks is shocked that the O/U has been placed a measly 9 runs. We'll gladly take the over here (-120) and call it day. Not sure who wins (we're pulling for the O's) but we expect fireworks. We'll call it a 7-5 Baltimore victory. LOCK IT UP

Detroit @ Cleveland - This is just the second game we've looked at today and we've already found two Vegas lines that seem rather curious. Detroit is really only a -152 favorite in this game? We were expecting something north of -200. Edwin Jackson gets to face an Indian team that he's dominated this season (2-0, 0.64). On the other side, the Indians give Fausto Carmona another chance to prove he isn't total dog meat. This is the same guy that was option to the minors (not AAA but A) in June and is just now back with the big club. This one just doesn't seem that fair. Add in the fact that Victor Martinez may very well not still be an Indian when the first pitch is thrown and we're all over Motown. Take the Tigers minus 1.5 runs (EVEN) to cruise through this affair, 7-2. LOCK IT UP

Washington @ Pittsburgh - Yawn. We really want to take the Nats here behind John Lannan but they are a road favorite. That is enough to scare us off this game entirely. On second thought, it's time that the Nats got some love and the Locks ain't scared of any baseball game. Give me Washington (-122) to get that road W behind Lannan. Nationals prevail 4-3. LOCK IT UP

Arizona @ NYM - Some habits are just hard to shake. For some, its the bottle. Others, its women. Still others can't help games of chance. For the Locks, its picking against the Pets. That was a nice little run that they had this past week and the DBacks certainly don't present too great of a challenge but they are still the Pets. "And He Shall Be Livan" Hernandez takes the ball tonight and that makes me smile. Give me Doug Davis, Mark Reynolds and the rest of the desert snakes to roll in this game. Take Arizona (-112) to win 5-4. LOCK IT UP

Chicago @ Florida - The Locks must admit to having a bit of a crush on the Marlins. This is another team that falls into the "scrappy playoff contender" that we so much love to get behind. However, we really like the Cubs with a healthy Aramis Ramirez in the lineup. Especially when the rejuvenated Rich Harden is pitching away from Wrigley. This one is too good for the Cubs for us to pass up on. The under might be another sneaky play here as both starters can be lights out when they're on. We'll simply take the SouthSiders (-130) to prevail behind Harden. Final score will be 5-2. LOCK IT UP

Colorado @ Cincinnati - Talk about two scuffling teams. At least you expect the woeful Reds to scuffle but the Rocks dropping 3 of 4 at Citi Field is just plain bad. Dependable Aaron Cook looks to get the Mile Highers back on track against a Red making his first ML start (Justin Lehr). We think the Colorado bats are up for the challenge and that this one gets a bit out of hand early on, especially if Cincy has to get into that bullpen. Take the Rocks minus 1.5 runs (-105) to roll up an 8-3 victory. LOCK IT UP

LA @ Atlanta - The Bravos have proven to be an itch in my underpants all season long. I support them and they soil themselves. I bash them and they erupt. I've got to get some sort of read on these guys. What I do know is that if their pitchers can keep games close, then Brian McCann and Chipper Jones can win them with their bats. I'm of the firm opinion that Tommy Hanson can keep the Braves in this game. Plus, Jason Schmidt hasn't shown that he is back in any sort of competent way just yet. Career numbers for McCann and Chipper are not great against Schmidt but I expect their damage to come against the pen. By the way, don't look now but the Dodgers are being exposed. They might not be as good as we all thought. Take Atlanta minus 1.5 runs (+115) to handle LA relatively easily, 7-3. LOCK IT UP

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay - SIDNEY PONSON ALERT! SIDNEY PONSON ALERT! I wish that everything in life was this easy. Like if I looked outside and saw a cloud resembling Sidney Ponson, I would know there is a 100% chance of rain. Can you believe that Sidney Ponson is still paid to pitch in Major League baseball games? I certainly cannot. This can't last much longer so make your money off of him now. Seriously. Don't wait. Bet everything you have tonight on this game, even with the ridiculous moneyline. We're taking TB minus 1.5 runs (-120) to throttle the Royals. This one will be ridiculous. Rays win 11-3. By the way, TAMPA BITCHES!!!! LOCK IT UP

Mariners @ Texas - SWINE FLU ALERT! SWINE FLU ALERT! Vicente Padilla finally returns from his battle with the pork pandemic and we're thinking the illness may have helped. It certainly couldn't have hurt this bag of rotting meat too much. In fact, after tonight's dazzling performance by Padilla, we think other borderline starting pitchers (we're looking at you Jeff Suppan and you too Brian Tallet) may purposefully contract the SF as a career boosting tactic. The M's have ridden their mediocre talent as far as they can this season. Even the scrappiness of this scrappy poster child is beginning to fade. Meanwhile, Texas continues to make noise and it is music to our ears. Take the Rangers minus 1.5 runs (+115) to handle Seattle 8-4. LOCK IT UP

LAA @ Minnesota - Apparently Orlando Cabrera passes as a major addition to your team in Middle America. Good luck with that Twinkies. However, the Twins are at home and we know how Jekyll and Hyde these guys are depending on where they are playing. Same goes for starter Nick Blackburn (5-0, 2.67 in Metrodome). The moneyline here is a bit bigger than we'd expect (Twins -160) but we do like Minny. Ervin Santana continues to search for the stuff that made him a pretty darn good pitcher last year. He's not gonna find it in Minnesota. Plus if he is able to hand a lead over to the pen, Brian Fuentes will just blow it. Take the Twins minus 1.5 runs (+120) to win 6-4. LOCK IT UP

NYY @ Chicago - Don't bet on the Yankees to lose back to back games. They make up for yesterday's poor offensive performance by battering the relatively inept Clayton Richard (1-2, 5.59 at home). All that Sergio Mitre needs to do is somewhat limit the Chicago offense and he'll be in line for win #2 this season. Look for a big bounce back W for the Bombers. Take NYY minus 1.5 runs (+125) to win 8-4. LOCK IT UP

Houston @ St. Louis - We're firmly back on the Cardinal train despite last night's loss to LA. The Cards have very strong memories of the sweep the Stros dropped on them in Houston recently. Look to the red birds to do everything they can to return the favor this weekend at Busch Stadium. That starts with a complete demolition of Brian Moehler this evening. Don't worry that St. Louis is trotting out Mitchell Boggs (sounds like one of the locals in Deliverance) for only his fifth start this year. Pitching won't matter in this blowout. Take St. Louie minus 1.5 runs (+115) to win big, 9-4. LOCK IT UP

Milwaukee @ San Diego - I hate everything about this game. For starters, I totally overvalue the ability of the Brewers for no identifiable reason. They've been killing me all year and I'm not sure why I expect them to be good for me. Plus, San Diego is starting Chad Gaudin who I think very little of but who also continues to hit me in the wallet every time he starts. I suppose you can take the approach that things even out over time. I will do just that and expect the Brewers to finally reward me and Gaudin to finally pitch like the hump that he is. The pick is Milwaukee (-110) to win, 5-4. LOCK IT UP

Toronto @ Oakland - Newsflash: The Blue Jays stink. Not just a little stink either. A major, dead body in the sun kind of stink. Unbelievable that these guys were the toast of baseball in May. It's rare that the A's ever are a moneyline favorite but against the Canadians, I can totally understand it. Dallas Braden is not a bad little pitcher and the Jays are terrible on the road. I can't believe I am going to support the Athletic Supporters, but, you know what, it doesn't feel as bad as I expected. A's (-128) win 6-3. LOCK IT UP

Philadelphia @ San Francisco - Not a real good showing by Philly last night. They need to beat teams like the Giants to claim the title of NL's best team. They get to take their new vehicle out for a ride tonight and we think they'll like the way that it handles. Cliff Lee should make pretty economical work out of the SF lineup. At the complete opposite end of the spectrum, the Phils should murder Ryan Sadowski. That adds up to a bet on the Phils minus 1.5 runs (-120). Philadelphia wins 7-2. LOCK IT UP


That's 15 winners for you heading into your first August weekend. Enjoy!

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