The weekend (particularly Friday and Saturday) proved to be a bit of a challenge for the Locks. Not sure what can be blamed for that: wandering attention in the absence of a mind-numbing workday, the need to turn around so many picks so quickly with early Saturday games, etc., etc. Who knows and more importantly, who cares?
Results are the only thing we're measured by here at the Locks and a 12-15 Friday and Saturday that eats $42 into the BAT does not pass as results. So we're certainly glad that we had Sunday to salvage our weekend. Yesterday's picks were a resounding success. 10-4 and a +$61 for Ye 'Ole BAT helps you get out of bed on a Monday. All told, we pull into the new week at 89-78 with an all-time high BAT of +$97. How bout we go over the century mark today?
Before we get into the picks we must mourn Jim Furyk's final round 76 yesterday when the 68 that we begged for would have given him a one-stroke win. Instead, we had two picks miss the cut by a long margin and a third melt on the final day to drop from a tie for 6th into a tie for 34th. Thankfully there are only four golf majors a year for us to embarrass ourselves on.
Additionally, this Friday represents the deadline for submitting entries into the NFL O/U Challenge. Remember, pick 3 teams to go under Vegas' win totals and 3 teams to go over (Find lines here). Send them to me at tbrons@vidallc.com and we'll spend the NFL season tracking the picks.
SF Giants @ Atlanta - Wow, the Bravos are huge favorites in this game (-175). I guess there is no Vegas honeymoon for Jonathan Sanchez following his no-hitter. The books seem much more enamored with the young Thomas Hanson. Can't say I disagree. He hasn't pitched since the 9th and should come out geared up for this one. That said, I think both of these offenses are exceedingly lame. The Giants looked woeful in Pittsburgh this weekend and that's just not gonna get it done for a potential postseason team. The ATL handled the Mets this weekend but that's like beating up your arthritis-riddled great-grandmother. These teams will struggle to score tonight and that's why we're picking the under (8.5) @ -120. Someone wins this one 4-2. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ NYY - I'm a terrified Yankee fan heading into this game. Let's make one thing very clear here: While I am one of Andy Pettite's top-5 all-time fans, he is either secretly hurt or simply at the end of the road. He's been a shell of himself the last few weeks. I'd still trust him in October more than 90% of the other ML starters but this has been tough to watch. Then, the Oriole offense that I rave about incessantly comes to town with a lineup full of guys that hit Andy pretty well. Factor in a Baltimore pitcher the Yanks have never faced and this one doesn't lean in the Bombers' favor. Especially not as a -210 favorite. I won't pick against the Yanks to win, but I will take the O's and 1.5 runs (-110) and see what happens. NY pulls this one out late against the Baltimore bullpen, 7-6. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Philadelphia - This is the NL series of the early part of the week. The Cubbies are starting to roll (no coincidence now that Aramis is back in the lineup). Ted Lilly is such an overlooked solid starter it is borderline criminal. He is disturbingly consistent and sometimes spectacular. I hate to pick against the Phillies, especially when they are facing lefties, but I have a feeling here. It also doesn't hurt that the Phils are trotting Rodrigo Lopez out to the mound. That might have been a good thing circa 2004 in Baltimore but not tonight. I'll take the South Siders to end Philadelphia's 8 game winning streak tonight. Cubs (-104) win 6-4. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh - Here's a rule: Anytime you can get -110 or better on a Pirate opponent, take it (unless its the Mets or Nats). I do like Ross Ohlendorf as a guy that can keep his team in the game and I don't necessarily have that same confidence in Mike Burns (who?). However, from an investment standpoint, -110 behind the BrewCrew is much wiser than -110 behind the Bucs. It's just that simple. Take Milwaukee (-110) to win here, 5-3. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Washington - There are so many things that can be said about this series. None of them would be misconstrued as flattering. As if this battle, a term we'll use loosely, needed any more incompetence, Washington trots out a 26-year old to make his ML debut. And in a sign of just how far the Pets have fallen, the Nats are a -130 favorite. How can Vegas even handicap this game? Get ready, because I am about to write stuff that could get me committed to an asylum. I like the Mets here. Let me explain. I'll always take the known vs. the unknown. What you don't know is how this J.D. Martin kid is going to handle the highest level of baseball (that's the first time this year that term has been assigned to the Mets). There is a reason that J.D. Martin hasn't sniffed the big leagues in his 9-year career. What you do know is how "And He Shall Be" Livan Hernandez pitches against the Nats (2-0, 0.56 this year). This data is why I really can't believe Vegas blew this moneyline so badly. Hell, they did it in our advantage. Take the Pets (+110) for perhaps the last time this entire season. NY wins a game that is sure to be the lead story on Baseball Tonight, 5-3. LOCK IT UP
Boston @ Texas - Still not buying the John Smoltz experiment one bit. Not at all. He won't even be in this rotation come the end of August. On the other side of the diamond, Kevin Millwood has been scuffling of late, watching his ERA climb to 3.46 from 2.62 in just four starts. However, he did throw 7 innings of shutout ball against Beantown earlier this year even though the Boston batters' career numbers against him are impressive. This is a tough one to call. I'm expecting the balls to be flying through what promises to be a warm Texas night. With that in mind, we'll back the over (9.5) at EVEN money. There should be plenty of runs in this one. Think something like 8-6. LOCK IT UP
St. Louis @ Houston - Sometimes there are major disconnects in the way people think about things. For instance, some people think that Jennifer Aniston is really hot. Incorrect. I seem to have that same problem with the way I think about the Houston Astros. I keep thinking they are a terrible team that should be pushing a 100-loss season. Then I check the standings and they sit at a very respectable 46-46 and only 4 games out of first place in the NL Central. How is that possible when they are trotting out Brian Moehler every fifth day? With the first place Cardinals in town for three games, we're about to learn a whole lot about the Stros. My guess is that we learn that there isn't as big a disconnect between the way I think of them and the way they are as their record indicates today. The Cards roll in the series opener tonight. Take them to win (-110) behind Kyle Loshe who shut Houston out earlier this year. Final score of 6-3. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Kansas City - Today is a great, great day. Little did I know when I woke up today that Sidney Ponson would be back in my life. There is nothing like a heart-warming surprise. Sidney, you've been gone too long. I don't care that I don't know much, if anything, about Sean O'Sullivan. What I do know is that he isn't Sidney Ponson. I'm surprised Vegas is even taking action on this game. I wish I could get a line on the Angels minus 5 runs because I would bet it. Alas, we can only take LAA minus 1.5 (+135) and that is what we'll do. Halos roll to a 11-5 victory. LOCK IT UP
Tampa Bay @ Chicago - This is a tough one to call as I really like both of these teams. Vegas thinks so too as both teams are -110 in this game. I'll take the home team here and hope we see the Mitch Williams version of David Price as opposed to the Sandy Koufax version of David Price. Gavin Floyd is steady, so the ChiSox will be in this game regardless. Look for a big Paul Konerko hit to swing the result in Chicago's favor. Take the Sox (-110) to win late, 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Running out of time before early games start so will go lightning round the rest of the way:
Arizona @ Colorado - Love Rockies; hate Dbacks (unless Harren is pitching). Rockies roll at home. Take them minus 1.5 runs at (+135). They win 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Florida @ San Diego - What a pitching match-up. Ladies and gentlemen: Rick VandenHurk vs. Tim Stauffer. Glad this is a lightning round cause I got nothing for you here. Marlins are a better team so go that way. Florida (-110) wins 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Oakland - Too easy to pick against the home-town A's. Oakland loses again. Twins (-124) win 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Cincinnati @ LA - Dodgers are off a bit since the All-Star break. Shouldn't be a -150 favorite in Jason Schmidt's first start back in a long, long time. I'll go out on a limb and take the Reds (+130) to win here. Final score is 6-4. LOCK IT UP
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