Tonight we kick off the second half of the baseball season in a somewhat abbreviated fashion. Only 16 of the 30 MLB teams are in action and nearly all of those are from the inferior league (at least according to ever single potential performance measure used to compare the leagues). And while you'd expect to have some really top-tier pitching matchups due to the off days and the opportunity to reset rotations, we will instead be treated to the likes of Jamie Moyer, Brandon Looper, Homer Bailey, and an Absolute Locks Hall of Famer, Ollie Perez. Not necessarily the names you'd expect to get the blood flowing. However, with three full days between us and the conclusion of the last truly meaningful baseball game (that WS home field advantage bit is more mirage than substance), we'd bet on tonight's Pleasant Hill D-League softball tilt between 70s Style Bush and the Salty Dogs if that was the only option (by the way, the Bush is -141 favorite in that contest). So for all of you "long-time" followers, as well as those of you just climbing aboard, here's to a second half filled with plenty of +140 moneyline victories to supplement your income.
NYM @ Atlanta - Why not get right to our favorite mental case this side of Carrot Top. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you: Oliver Perez. Here is a riddle for you: What could possibly make Dr. Control's season line of 2-2, 8.78 with 28 walks in 26.2 innings look good? The answer would be Perez's line of 0-1, 12.71 with 16 walks in 11.1 innings when throwing away from pitcher friendly Citi Field. To show just how whacked Pets fans are at this point, they see Ollie's last start (4 hits and 7 walks in 5 innings) as a step in the right direction. If I were a Pet fan (what an absurd notion) I would have been hoping the All Star break would have lasted all summer. This is not going to end well. The Braves aren't great, but they aren't the Pets either. Take the Braves behind Derek Lowe to throttle NY. Give the 1.5 runs for an EVEN moneyline. Final score will be 7-3. LOCK IT UP
Chicago @ Washington - I considered the Nats here as a sneaky play but then I saw the moneyline and realized there is nothing sneaky about (+103). Why are the Nats getting this sort of respect? I don't get it. Sure Lannan can deal reasonably well but pitching isn't Washington's problem. It's that scoring runs part of the game that they don't seem to get. Granted Rich Harden circa 2009 is not the Rich Harden of a few years back but his road splits are impressive (3-1, 2.59). I also think this Cubs offense is getting back on track. All thanks to Mr. Aramis Ramirez. What a huge difference he is going to make in the second half. Watch out for the under in this game as well. 9 is an awfully big number for these two offenses especially when these starters can deal when they're on. The pick here is the Cubs minus 1.5 runs (+135). Chicago rolls, 5-2. LOCK IT UP
Seattle @ Cleveland - Talk about a moneyline that is completely out of whack. Cleveland at -210. Is that a misprint? Has anyone in Vegas seen these guys play. Better question, has anyone seen them pitch? Cliff Lee is back to pitching like pre-2008 Cliff Lee and that bullpen is where outs go to die. Sure Garrett Olson may mail in a stinker for Seattle. Even if he does, Cleveland still has to find a way to get 27 outs. Plus, Seattle is a 14-11 team against lefties while the Injins play to 8-11 against southpaws. Final point: Seatlle took 3 out of 4 from Texas heading into the break. Texas is a very, very good baseball team. The M's have confidence and did I mention this moneyline is ridiculous. I like Seattle to win this one outright on the road (+175). They shall prevail 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ Cincinnati - Yikes. I absolutely hate both of these pitchers. They are both as unpredictable as can be. This can be an 8-7 slugfest or, just as easily, a 3-2 duel. I just don't have any read based on the starters. That said, I definitely do know that I believe the Brewers are the much better team, and that was before the Reds got pasted by the Mets heading into the All Star break. Plus, the Brew Crew is a minor dog heading into this one. I think Prince derails the persistent Home Run derby hurting your second half power numbers theory right away with a round-tripper in this one. Take Milwaukee at EVEN money to win the game. I just threw some darts at the board and came up with a 6-4 final. LOCK IT UP
Philadelphia @ Florida - Maybe Ryan Howard should have had Chris Volstad pitch to him in the HR Derby. Based on his three HRs in six career at bats vs. Volstad, he might have given Prince a better run for his money. Jamie Moyer is 12-2 lifetime against Florida but since he's in his 70s many of those wins could have come back in the 90s. Regardless, Philly's lineup is the class of the NL, if not the entire league. There just aren't many games that I'm going to pick against the likes of Chase, the Flyin' Hawaiian, Werth, JRoll and Howard, especially when they are a dog. I'll take the Phils to win (-102), 7-5. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Oakland - Here is another case of the superior team being an underdog. I get to see more of the Athletic Supporters than any one person needs to and I can tell you that this team has problems. I know everyone is screaming that Ervin Santana has been awful this year and that Dallas Braden has pitched very well. Numbers don't lie and I can't dispute that. However, I also can't dispute career numbers. The A's have no one that does anything against Santana (get a load of these numbers: Giambi - .071 in 14 ABs; Suzuki - .059 in 17 ABs; Crosby - .087 in 23 ABs). Those aren't exactly small sample sizes either. Plus, the Halos have guys that rake against Braden (Figgins, Aybar and Matthews are all over .350 against him - granted in fewer at bats). There are few things I put as much stake in as career numbers. That is also why I expect Santana to figure his issues out sooner or later and the A's offense provides a perfect time to do it. The Angels (+104) will win this one more easily than most expect. Final score 6-2. LOCK IT UP
Colorado @ San Diego - Not going to waste many words on this one. San Diego is putrid. The 23-20 home record is an aberration. The Rockies are a solid team and Aaron Cook a very good starting pitcher. The only thing Cook needs to worry about is Adrian Gonzalez (.398 with 2 HRs against him) and with the Big Kouz hitting behind him, there's no reason for Adrian to see a single strike tonight. Rockies roll in this one. Give SD the 1.5 runs and take Colorado (+130) to win 5-1. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ LA - I admit that I have not given Wandy Rodriguez sufficient respect this year and it has cost me money. He's pitched very well against some very good lineups. No doubt about it. Now that we have that out of the way, I'm taking the Dodgers to beat Wandy and the 'stros. LA wears out lefties to a clip of 17-10 while Houston is sub-.500 against southpaws. Randy Wolf had a bad start against Houston this year but it was way back in April. Disregard it. Manny is back in the middle of the LA lineup and this is his first game back in LA since his suspension. It all adds up to a Dodger win. I'm not going so far as to give any runs though. Take LA to win outright (-145) as they dispatch the Astros 5-4. LOCK IT UP
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