Among yesterday's highlights were nailing the Angel's/A's score exactly (6-2), calling Prince Fielder's HR (he almost had 2), and leveraging career numbers (Moyer vs. Marlins, A's pitiful bats against Ervin Santana, Ryan Howard HRs vs. Chris Volstad) into winning wagers. Tonight we have the fullest slate possible. A whopping 15 games to choose from. The choosing is up to you as we'll break down all 15 matchups.
But before we get to the games, let's all head into the weekend with some valuable, practical advice in the form of the immortal words of Kenny Powers:
"A lot of people ask me, 'Kenny Powers, you're a giant star, you could get any woman. Have you ever paid for sex?' And the answer is yes, I have, several times in fact. It's actually kinda cool. You can negotiate practically anything, and sometimes, you even just kinda do stuff in the moment that you never agreed to pay for and it goes by without much argument."
With that, here are your winners:
Chicago @ Washington - Big Z takes the ball tonight and simultaneously strikes fear in the hearts of fans of both the Cubs and Nationals. There are not many pitchers in the Bigs as polarizing as Zambrano. Will he throw a three-hitter and hit a long ball or get his strike zone squeezed by the home plate ump and meltdown like Albert Belle on meth? Oh the joys of watching Carlos on the mound. Against most big league teams, these issues might be enough to scare you off of the Cubs. Not against the Washington Generals, I mean Nationals. Nope, the Cubs will breeze through this game lighting up Craig Stammen and his 7.54 home ERA along the way. We can't totally disregard Zambrano though, so we'll just take Chicago to win outright (-136) instead of covering the 1.5 runs. Cubs win 6-3. LOCK IT UP
Detroit @ NYY - The toughest part of writing this blog is making honest, unbiased predictions in games featuring the Yankees. The Tigers trot out the exact type of pitcher that typically gives this NY lineup fits: a young guy that they have never seen before. There isn't a guy on the Yanks' roster that has ever faced Lucas French at any level of baseball. Historically, this doesn't bode well for the Bombers. Combine that with the fact that there are a number of Tigers with decent career numbers against A.J. Burnett and the stars aren't necessarily aligning for NY, especially sitting as a -240 favorite. I won't go so far to predict a Detroit victory but I see great value in taking the Tigers plus 1.5 at EVEN money. That would be my play in this game. Yanks win but not by enough, 5-4. LOCK IT UP
Seattle @ Cleveland - The Indians figured out the magic formula for victory last night: make at least two unbelievable defensive plays (that DP turned by Asdrubal Cabrera was as pretty as you'll see) and never let a reliever touch the ball. Now, if only Cliff Lee could pitch every game. David Huff has a better chance of banging Megan Fox than pitching a complete game tonight. WARNING: THE CLEVELAND BULLPEN WILL BE IN PLAY TONIGHT. That is particularly bad news since the Injins likely won't push more than 3 runs across the plate against King Felix (5-1, 1.94 on the road). This one almost feels like stealing. Take the M's minus 1.5 runs (+105) to bounce back behind Hernandez, 6-1. LOCK IT UP
San Francisco @ Pittsburgh - This is a very interesting game. You basically know what you get with Tim Lincecum. Pat Maholm on the other hand is the definition of a mixed bag. He is either spectacular or a spectacular mess. There really is not much in between. Looks like Vegas is expecting him to be on tonight because they've installed the over/under at 7. That is lowest o/u total you will ever see. I don't buy it. Too much needs to go right for a game to stay that low scoring. Lincecum is great but you can't expect a shutout every time out. The Giants also do very well against lefties. This might be more hunch than anything, but I like the over (-125). I see a 6-2 game here. LOCK IT UP
Boston @ Toronto - In keeping with the o/u theme, I was really surprised to see that number so low in an AL East battle. Vegas has this one pegged at 8.5 runs. I'm really not buying that either. Clay Buchholz finally gets a chance to pitch for a team other than Pawtucket this season. Is there any reason to think he is going to be lights out his first time out on the road against a solid offensive team? I don't think so. Even if he throws a quality start and surrenders 3 runs, why wouldn't the Sox be able to account for 6 more with their lineup? Keep in mind that Beantown did already knock around Ricky Romero once this year and they crush lefties (20-11). This is a game that will involve the bullpens and that always leads to a few more runs crossing the plate. Take the over (-115). Sox win here 7-5. LOCK IT UP
Milwaukee @ Cincinnati - Look for another high scoring affair between these two with some less than stellar pitchers on the mound. The Brew Crew hits Bronson Arroyo very well historically. Jeff Suppan's highest ERA vs. any NL Central team happens to come against the Reds. That said, I'm not picking the o/u here. Instead, I'm sticking with the formula that got me the win in this game last night. I can't get a read based on the pitchers, so I'll go with the better team. That team is Milwaukee. Plus we're getting a favorable moneyline (+110). Take the Brewers to win outright, 8-6. LOCK IT UP
Philadelphia @ Florida - This will be one of the few times I pick against the mighty Phillies. I just don't trust Cole Hamels one bit. He's atrocious away from home (6.34 ERA) and completely unreliable of late. Florida is another team that wears out southpaws (21-12). I also really like Ricky Nolasco who has been solid since returning from the minors. This is a big-time statement game for Florida if they want to be considered serious contenders for the postseason. They can't drop a second straight game at home. I think Hanley Ramirez and friends ensure that doesn't happen. Take the Fish to win outright (+111), 5-3. LOCK IT UP
NYM @ Atlanta - Oh boy. I can't believe that I am about to do this. If I had an ax handy, I'd chop off my hands before I type another word. But dare I say, the Mets are an excellent value tonight (+180) - GULP. Playing absolutely terrible baseball for nearly four months will certainly help lower expectations. But hold on just a minute. These Bravos aren't exactly the '96 Yankees either. They are an immensely flawed team. For the Mets, Mike Pelfrey is a relatively solid starter who is certainly capable of keeping his team in the game (he's already done it once against the Braves this year). I've also seen a little bit of spunk from these Mets of late. I can't believe I just wrote that last sentence. The Mets (+180) are the pick to win tonight. Pelfrey throws well, Wright gets two bigs hits and Sheffield goes yard. Final score is 6-4. LOCK IT UP
Minnesota @ Texas - Here's another formula game. Formula as in the starting pitchers stink so go with the better team. Right now, for my money, the Rangers are the better team. Especially at home and especially when facing a lefty. You also cannot discount the surprisingly bad numbers that the Twins' two big bats have against Vicente Padilla (Morneau - .214 and Mauer - .167). I can't believe there is any pitcher out there that Mauer hits only .167 against, no less Vicente Padilla. That is enough for me to take Texas to win outright (-125), 7-4. LOCK IT UP.
Tampa Bay @ Kansas City - TAMPA BITCHES! This one isn't as clear cut as it appears. Brian Bannister knows how to pitch. However, so does Big Game James Shields. Shields dominated the Royals the one other time he faced them this year and the Rays smoked Bannister the day before. I think this is a tightly contested battle but the solid career numbers of the Rays vs. Bannister are enough to push it in Tampa's favor. Take them to win outright (-145), 4-3. LOCK IT UP
Baltimore @ Chicago - I hate to bang on the O's because they have so much young talent but Jason Berken ain't getting it done against John Danks. Baltimore in general turns into a pumpkin away from home (14-27) with Berken in particular not liking the scenery away from Camden Yards (0-2, 9.49). Aside from one bad inning against the Twins last time out, Danks has been hot, hot, hot recently. I also like the Sox experienced bats in the middle of that lineup. Dye, Konerko and Thome are all professional hitters. This one will not be close. Take ChiSox and give the 1.5 runs (+125). They will roll 8-3. LOCK IT UP
Arizona @ St. Louis - This one doesn't need much in the way of analysis. Chris Carpenter may be the best pitcher in baseball (though the media certainly doesn't portray him as such). Not surprisingly, the media is not portraying Jon Garland as the best pitcher in baseball either. Maybe I'm unfairly tough on Garland but I wouldn't even want him on my D-league slow pitch softball team. This is another one that will not be close. Take the Cards minus 1.5 runs (EVEN) and collect your money. Carpenter shuts the DBacks out, 5-0. LOCK IT UP
LAA @ Oakland - I can't decide who I like less: Joe Saunders or the entire Oakland roster. At least Saunders has other people on his team that can help. Oakland will score runs here so I see the game staying relatively close. However, the Halos are starting click, regardless of whether Saunders does his best to sabotage them tonight or not. At least A's fans have the Raiders to look forward to...oh wait a minute. Maybe not. The Warriors? Wow. Sports do really suck out here in the East Bay. Angels (-110) win 5-4. LOCK IT UP.
Colorado @ San Diego - I'm tempted to simply repost my analysis from yesterday's Rockies/Padres game here. San Diego is putrid. Umbaldo Jiminez is a very solid starting pitcher. He just has to avoid giving Adrian Gonzalez anything to hit and this game will be another laugher. The Rockies are certainly thanking the schedule maker for starting them off in San Diego in the second half. Take Colorado minus 1.5 runs (+105) in a blowout, 8-2. LOCK IT UP
Houston @ LA - I'm surprised that the Stros are as big of a dog (+142) with Oswalt on the mound. Still, surprise is not enough to make me like Houston here. They got their one and only win in LA last night. Billingsly will shut that weak hitting lineup down tonight and the Dodgers bats will take out some frustration on Roy Munson. Here's another West Coast game that won't keep you up late biting your nails. The pick is Dodgers minus 1.5 runs (+130). They win going away 6-2. LOCK IT UP
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